Is OPEC doomed by its price war with US Shale?

What do you think?

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OPEC is doomed because they're comprised solely of shitskins and mudslimes

it's like a shittiest nations on the planet contest

I think OPEC is a joke, an archaic dinosaur producing high-cost oil.

No match for America efficiency and innovation, which can handle low-cost oil.

OPEC will fall.

JUST

what do you even mean? like there won't be a need for OPEC's oil in the future? OPEC may cease to exist as a cartel but as long as there is oil in the ground someone will try to get it out you couldn't stop them if you wanted to

OPEC has to keep on producing in order to compete with U.S. shale, keeping supply high and prices low. So yes, OPEC is fucked.

I mean US Shale will eventually break the back of OPEC.

It's lower-cost, more efficient and just getting warmed up.

Who wants to be dependent on the Middle East hellhole when they can get oil from America?

And when OPEC goes, so do most of the OPEC nations' economies. They're way too dependent on oil for their own good.

The idea that OPEC could break US Shale was always ludicrous in retrospect. America isn't overly dependent on oil for cash, so it has plenty of spare cash to support its shale industry.

It'd be like trying to make a man suffocate who has an endless supply of oxygen, while you don't.

I dont think any of that is true of shale oil, and i dont think america actually exports oil atm. its a pretty long gap to go from not exporting any oil at all to supplying the whole world with oil

>And when OPEC goes, so do most of the OPEC nations' economies. They're way too dependent on oil for their own good.

We're already seeing that in Venezuela; amazing how a welfare state collapsed once it ran out of money, who could have seen that one coming? And Saudi Arabia is investing trillions to diversify its economy.

I hope so.

Yes. But US Shale is the future, OPEC is the past.

Petrostates are obsolete.

US oil companies are going to cave first

Once the price dips below 30 again, US oil companies are going to crumble.

Oh boy you better sit down for this my friend. States, period, are obsolete. Globalism is the future.

Shale boom is America at its finest. Stupid sand niggers have been drilling for oil the same way for 100 years, since we showed them how. They flood the market to try to break our shale oil boom and all that is happening is they are bankrupting themselves. Shale tech is expanding exponentially, wells are now profitable at the $40/barrel price point, and they are producing more oil for longer periods of time. The only real damage was to deep water and the Canadian tar sands, as they really need at least $60-80 range to be profitable. It won't be long before they realize they cannot win this game, and buy then America is closer than ever to be energy independent.

More likely US Shale will just cut costs again via efficiency, just like they've been doing.

OPEC's the one in trouble. They can't reduce costs to nearly the same extent.

they don't really crumble

they just shut down some refineries to stabilize the price, but in the meantime they grab market share from OPEC

that is the endgame for now, and US Shale is winning because the US has other sources of income, like Melania's whoring ass

>and buy then America is closer than ever to be energy independent.
nah we'll have doubled our energy usage by then and we'll be in the same exact boat

what do you have against sucking the third world dry of resources anyway? we give them paper and they give us oil. what is wrong with this setup?

OPEC nations need oil revenue to balance their budgets, our nation does not.

Eventually OPEC will run out of cash.

When we break OPEC, the Middle East will have no chance but to not fuck with us.

We'll have supreme oil dominance, while they won't have shit to export.

>More likely US Shale will just cut costs again via efficiency, just like they've been doing.

The dog can only get so lean before it collapses from exhaustion. I think they're way closer to that point than you seem to think.

Saudi Oil wells can sustainably operate well below the price that shale can.... the big problem they face is that the country is in debt. Economic troubles are just going to motivate the saudis to pump oil faster and faster.

>they don't really crumble

They haven't crumbled yet.... But they're in debt. They have bills to pay. The banks are only going to give them so much leeway on those loans. If they don't get a certain price, they'll be forced out of business.

>need oil revenue to balance their budgets, our nation does not.

They're not competing against our nation. They're competing against companies in our nation who DO need revenue to balance their budgets.

Then other companies take their place.

OPEC's oil industries are run by the state, and that is key. There is nobody else.

>Then other companies take their place.

It's not that simple. After getting burned by oil companies, banks are going to be wary of giving loans to new businesses, and charge them a higher interest rate. Because it's risky. This will RAISE the costs of the operation... and will keep certain groups out of the market.

Without oil revenue, OPEC's nations cannot balance their own economies and pay for shit.

Their economies are overwhelmingly dependent on oil for cash. And low oil prices mean low cash.

And you're right. They're not fighting the American state. The rest of the economy is entirely free to support US Shale if need be.

OPEC can't afford to keep oil prices low forever, and the moment they go up again, US Shale returns.

OPEC is trapped in its own web.

I think OPEC waited too long before beginning this price war. The shale industry has had too long to grow profits and knowledge about how exactly to get the oil and how to do it cheaply for them to simply kill it off completely.

This price war is simply going to kill off the little fish while the bigger fish in the shape industry only gobble up that market share. OPEC is retarded and they've lost their stranglehold, but they're not dead. As long as oil is a resource humans need/want, OPEC will remain an influence in the world.

>
>Without oil revenue, OPEC's nations cannot balance their own economies and pay for shit.
>Their economies are overwhelmingly dependent on oil for cash. And low oil prices mean low cash.

This man gets it.

Yes. They are destroying themselves.

They need the oil price to go back to save their shit economies.

The Arabs had a nice cash cushion but it will eventually run out.

We are the ones that got fucked because the commies spent the excess cash on candy and bubblegum.

>The rest of the economy is entirely free to support US Shale if need be.
Maybe if bernie sanders were president. Socialist bs if you ask me.

>OPEC can't afford to keep oil prices low forever

Right. The idea isn't to keep prices low forever. The idea is to maximize profits. They've already done a lot of damage to the long term oil output of the U.S. and other countries.

If the prices fall drastically again, it's not going to be pretty. I don't think the bounce back is going to be so snappy next time.

Its also more expensive to refine into auto fuel.most of it is sold to china.

>Implying the "rest of the economy" is the government

Rest of the economy means the actual rest of the economy. We're not a Petrostate, unlike OPEC.

Honestly they haven't. The oil wells are still in place, ready to go online at a moment's notice. Someone will turn them on again and start things up once more.

When the price of oil goes back up, US Shale reactivates the wells.

OPEC is fucked forever, it just doesn't know it yet.

Yes, US shale means the US is a swing producer and not Saudi Arabia. They won't be able to inflate the price anymore.

Also if you're complaining about "Socialism", what about OPEC?

Petrostates have their oil owned by the government. There's no free market.

By this logic, the capitalism of US Shale will triumph over the state-run OPEC oil companies.

>Honestly they haven't. The oil wells are still in place, ready to go online at a moment's notice.

Yes, but the oil wells that would have been drilled over the past 6-10 months never got drilled.

banksterbubble.com/1796-2/

is this why shale oil guy is in full damage control mode? oil is crashing again

I like capitalism better, but it isn't magical. It doesn't automatically beat saudi arabia just because they're socialist.

OPEC are shitskin faggots. What do I care about their government.

US Shale isn't going away. America is the free market, OPEC is socialist state-run oil.

We will win. OPEC is the past, and the past cannot become the future.

Even if every single shale company in America folds, others will take their place. That's the power of free-market greed.

OPEC needs oil revenue to survive. We don't.

That's the failure of being a Petrostate, you don't get money from anything else but oil.

Yea, i don't doubt that. But neither is opec going anywhere. That's all i'm saying.

True, there a bunch of wells that won't get drilled, but newer wells have a lower break even point than 1 year ago, and existing wells can be capped and reactivated within a month as most of the cost has been spent, it's cheap to turn back on.


He is not incorrect. The recent bust got rid of a lot of needed excess, but the real economy is slowing down which means companies that should exist will get hurt if they don't have cash. Depending on if there is a financial crisis again, you could see a second major crash.

you are one weird dude

good luck on your conquests

US just bought a bunch of cheap oil from ISIS through Shell.

And with all those oil tankers sitting out in the ocean Full of oil...

Opec is just fucking gone man. Its fucking gone.

Possibly, but the problem is a lot of the shale oil is a pain in the ass to get to and draw from the ground main reason we have not seen more oil activity in the northern states.

>globalism
>happening
>ever

Why would they be? OPEC countries are not operating on huge debt loads. Shale companies are. That is why the oversupply attack works.

Of course, I think this is more about making proxy war on the Russians and their oil-based territorial expansion plans.

Good. I was worried being 33 would make me boring.

Is that why five OPEC countries are collapsing?

>Of course, I think this is more about making proxy war on the Russians and their oil-based territorial expansion plans.
ding ding ding ding
globalresearch.ca/the-secret-stupid-saudi-us-deal-on-syria/5410130

I cannot wait. Gonna get comfy and watch all the happenings that the scumbags in saudi arabia are gonna get when their 'economy' falls apart

Here's the deal faggots: There is no more room to store the oil. Everybody's tanks/ect are full.All the ships are full.All the refined products tanks are full.

There are 100 tankers full of oil that nobody can sell,and they are still pumping. Get ready for some $1.25/gallon gas.

OPEC's budgets.

Obama's Iran deal guaranteed cheaper oil prices. Saudis have to keep prices low to fund their Yemen proxy war.

:3

>tfw venezuela isnt even on the chart because it would be an uber huge red bar downwards