I made a post yesterday about a European Crash so i'll continue from where Ieft off...

I made a post yesterday about a European Crash so i'll continue from where Ieft off, my other post may be in the archive. It refered to 'Sofferenze', the Italian banks and especially 'Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena'.

In further posts I will deploy more graphs and info on what to do.

Despite Europe's bank debt stacking up , DBK (Deutsche Bank) are being propped up by major derivative exposure amounting to 72 Trillion and keeps climbing .The derivatives are more than Germany's total GDP. Although the majority is saved by their Net , this Net is at the expense of the various counter parties. If any fail to back up then the trigger is fired and things wont be pretty.

Moving on, another issue going on here are an increase in CDS's reaching nominal peaks in 2015/16, they're still not as high yet but they've been growing internally throughout the year.
The picture attached shows DBK's CDS against JP Morgan. There's also a CDS increase on the major Italian Bank 'Monte dei Paschi ' , I'm sure there are more on the linked banks I've named below.

In due course; It's a matter of time before the loans start defaulting and reports either start lying or trying to fix things. A bailout shouldn't happen due to new EU rules in place since 2008 on bank bailout strategies. An option against the taxpayer lays open but who's to say the government wont do both or the former, I don't now. But what I do know is that something will crack within end of this year or next year 2017.

CONT.

Other urls found in this thread:

investopedia.com/articles/exchangetradedfunds/07/leveraged-etf.asp
twitter.com/SFWRedditImages

DBK has a Q3 on October 27th (check their calendar) and that's their final event till January 2017. If I had the chance I'd be shorting DBK from now or during October.
I'd also be shorting the banks connected to DBK who are also in swift decline:

HSBC,
Barclays
UniCredit
Nordea
Santander
Morgan Stanley
JP Morgan
CITI
Goldman Sachs
Standard Chartered
There's tons , and tons more, I'll post an image which pretty much shows who you can short in layman terms. Look at the stock prices yourselves for proof and do your own DD to find a stock right for you.

I expect a European crash at least sometime in 2017/ Late 2017 , maybe I'm a bit off - I'm still unsure precisely , but expect further bank decline throughout the year to come. If you're a trader start shorting the banks connected to DBK, Barclays, HSBC etc they're linked. Anything in Italy is free for all

Another chart for DBK CDS's

>A bailout shouldn't happen due to new EU rules in place since 2008 on bank bailout strategies.
>he believes this

As soon as banks in Italy started looking shady, talks about a public bail-out emerged yet again.

It's more of a "Will they do it?" thing. I mean, will they REALLY bail them out AGAIN. Or Bail-in

If there is a bail out it'll be at the last minute, and then people will start complaining

Brexshitter shill. The only thing crashing is the British economy.
In a year's time we will literally have to pay a fee to save money. Zimbabwenomics at it's best. It is Theresa May's official policy to not zero the deficit by the end of this parliament, and the bitch literally set up an industrial strategy cabinet which will oversee state-funded factories that are there to generate muh jobs with no regard to profitability.

After the stress test Monte Paschi got a 100% private bailout. The bank is just being bought by other institutions, there's no taxpayer money involved.

You think that tiny fee for a 'private bailout' will fix that stinking turd?

160 basis points spread, that is not healthy at all.
Wonder if there is/strong correlation between German debt and DB cds

No, it won't fix it overnight but it will buy them time, and this won't be an unexpected crash like 2008. Governments and central banks are prepared for this and will cushion the fall by allowing inflation to rise a little bit (plenty of room for that as some countries have actually experienced deflation for several months over the past decade) or by letting a few banks to go bust before fragmenting them into smaller high street banks which aren't as exposed to debt.

Massive institutions like HSBC or Citi are market anomalies and will fail sooner or later as they serve no real purpose. The difference is the EU is backed by solid and diversified economies like Germany's. Europe can sail through another crash. We and our 200% debt to GDP ratio cannot. That's why British media is on full damage control at this point painting a much uglier picture of the EU's economic situation than it actually is.

>Wonder if there is/strong correlation between German debt and DB cds

Can anybody recommend a good short them all ETF? I mean something without huge decay risks.

I'm already into precious metals, but I'd like to short as well.

Great points, i'd also add Barclays to the list.
I want them to fail so badly , not so I can profit but for something to actually change . This shit's a joke.

What is a q3 and what is shorting?

What do you mean?

Reminder change your Euros to pounds.
.

Reduce spending on European goods increase spending on uk goods.

You will help crash euro quicker and profit when uk becomes a financial safe haven in the crash.

You can do this with any currency,

It seems only matter time.

Q3 = Quarterly Results

Shorting = "Timmy thinks x will fall in stock price next month, Timmy calls his broker and orders 200 short shares of x . In doing this , Timmy is buying shares with money he doesn't own to sell at a later date for a cheaper price (the fall next month), that way Timmy can make a profit. The next month comes along and Timmy was right, shit stock x did fall and Timmy made a profit. He now buys back the shares he borrowed and makes pocket money."

What do you think about FAZ? It's the inverse of the Russell 1000 Financial Services Index 3x

Don't know too much into it but it's looking like shit . Don't buy that

It's down because its only US banks and US banks have been fine so far. I like to buy at the bottom.

I wouldn't touch that ever, that thing's going to pop. What's wrong with you

I mean an ETF that tracks like an inverse baking index or something. But those technical funds often don't perform very well and are more interesting for day traders, especially the leveraged ones. I'm looking for something where I don't loose money just for staying in, something that tracks accurately. Like an inverse s&p500 or better something that tracks only the banking sector.

>dat chart
I like this chart

If you want to really lower risk then look into Options. I also don't look at ETF's so I can't really help here. Have you looked into Futures or Indexes?

This shit needs to happen soon so my SPY puts don't expire worthless. I was expecting another Chinese market shit storm soon but this will do nicely also.

I don't like options because the premium is pretty expensive for long term and you loose it all, if you have to wait for too long.

Futures are also a bit of a pain and they are timed as well.

You can't buy Indexes, that's what ETF's or other Funds are for. They aren't interesting for day traders, but they are pretty good for someone who just want to buy and forget. Unfortunately it's pretty hard to find out about the performances of those funds (you often have to manually compare with the underlying index) and if they track the indices as they should.

How do you know that though? Explain reasoning.

Many of the top 10 holding are the very banks you said to short:

JPMorgan Chase & Co
Bank of America Corp
Citigroup Inc
Goldman Sachs Group Inc

etc.

You realize this ETF is INVERSE right? Meaning it goes UP when these banks go DOWN?

Otherwise why are you saying to not touch this? Seems to be exactly what you're telling us to do: short banks.

I don't know anything about that ETF, but since it's 3x Leveraged you might to want to read this:
investopedia.com/articles/exchangetradedfunds/07/leveraged-etf.asp

especially the part about Index Exposure, your really should. And in case you are to lazy, let me just say this: If the index looses and comes back up again for the exact same amount you probably still lost money. Leveraged ETF's are made for day traders, you shouldn't hold onto them for days or even months. I know it sucks, but it simply is how they work.

I meant to answer this one

Wait, I don't get that shorig thing. So Timmy, prefixing the fall of a stock, calls in to buy the shares. but if Timmy doesnt own the money he uses to buy the shares with, let's say, prices is 200 - doesn't he then own someone 200? So if the stock then falls the total worth to 150 and he sells and gives back the 150, he still has a debt of 50?

>so if the stock then falls the total worth to 150 and he sells and gives back the 150,

he owes back the shares he shorted, not the money.

if the shares he shorted end up falling then he pockets the difference.

That's true, but I think I timed the exact bottom here and it will only go up from here. It's all about the November election in the U.S. which is going to be Brexit x 100 in terms of markets.

If this crash is anything like the 2008 crash, then banks lead the decline and they decline twice as much as the market in general.

>which is going to be Brexit x 100

God I hope so

I'm 100% cash right now and waiting for another big market dip like the one Brexit caused

I mean how could it not be? I've never seen a more establishment-hated candidate get this far. Trump represents the ultimate political uncertainty. His unpredictability in the campaign will extend to his unpredictability in governing.

The question is how long will the markets take to recover? Trying to catch a falling knife and all that....you'd better take it easy and dollar cost average your way back in.

I imagine he will have things back on track after about 1-2 years though. The man is a genius.

I don't know anything about economy, but I've been reading all the talk about an inevitable and unavoidable crash. My question is, is it something that will just happen on its own due to some kind of unforeseen little issue causing a domino effect, or are people able to control its timing? I've been worried that it might happen around the time the US gets a new president, and it's going to be used to advance an agenda. Like maybe giving Obama some kind of emergency powers to keep him leading the nation, or maybe blaming Trump for the crash and demonizing nationalism so badly that it can never again rise.

They are trying their best to keep the economy propped through November for two reasons:

1) It will help Clinton win.
2) Even if it doesn't, they have "let the air out" after Trump wins and then blame it on him.