THE DREAMS IN WHICH I'M DYING ARE THE BEST I'VE EVER HAD

THE DREAMS IN WHICH I'M DYING ARE THE BEST I'VE EVER HAD

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docquery.fec.gov/pdf/318/201607159020655318/201607159020655318.pdf#navpanes=0
longroom.com/polls/
people-press.org/2015/04/07/a-deep-dive-into-party-affiliation/
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theonion.com/video/brutal-anti-cruz-attack-ad-just-30-seconds-candida-52562
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Has Sup Forums even recovered from the last BTFO?!

zitto animale

I TRIED SO HARD

AND GOT SO FAR

This thread again.

what happens when you over sample dems by 10% and still only get a 4% lead???

This is why people think the polls are shit

im mean look at the data, 735 dems vs 572 republicans is around a 11% plus for the dems, how in the fuck does anyone this this is accurate??

Maybe they think there are more democrats than republicans or more democrats are likely to vote than republicans. Your exact same objection was brought up in 2012 and the polls ended up being pretty much spot on.

ALL AROUND ME ARE FAMILIAR FACES

WARN OUT PLACES, WARN OUT FACES

I PUSH MY FINGERS INTO MY

>oversample

great meme

There are more registered Independents then Democrats and Republicans. If anything, they should be over sampling them.

Hillary could have 100%, it doesnt matter. She wont last the whole election.

>13% of respondents are independents
>43% of registered voters are independents
>50% of polled respondents are dem.
>38% of polled respondents are rep.
Wew lad, It REALLY made me think

sure if dems out numbered repubs by that margin but they dont, they are up about 1.5 ro 2%.

What your are saying is factually wrong.

I cant argue they think more dems will turn out since there is no evidence against or for it other than the primaries having far less voter turn out for dems vs 2008 and far more republican turn out, but this could be for various reasons and does not indicate a republican blow out. Im strictly talking facts not conjecture.

are you retarded its literally in front of your face.

Except in that 4 fucking year period the number of registered dems dropped and independents went up

Trump supporters are more delusional than tulpafags

can someone tell me how do we ban IP? CTR shills are annoying

...

B-BREXIT WILL NEVER WIN!

Say it with me Saint Cox.
Say it with me Prime Minister Ed.

"This new leak will be the end of Hillary's campaign", says an increasingly nervous Assange for the 12th time this year.

SHHHHHHHHHHH DON'T USE LOGIC
THAT TRIGGERS THE HILL SHILLS

I think it's kinda funny
I think it's kinda sad

>polls show tightening
>release silly poll to skew average

This will keep happening until we get close to voting. The job of polls now is to convince us Trump cannot win. The accuracy of polls cannot be verified this far out, so all they are looking for is the headline

>"I thought she was gay," says stunned ex-president
thanks for the laugh satan

Fuck. Trump is really done for this time

lmao

how do i become a shill? They make good money i've heard. If you don't want to say give me a bread crumb trail.

shoo, shoo CTR

beta.fec.gov/data/disbursements/?two_year_transaction_period=2016&disbursement_purpose_categories=other&committee_id=C00578997&min_date=01-01-2015&max_date=08-05-2016

docquery.fec.gov/pdf/318/201607159020655318/201607159020655318.pdf#navpanes=0

...

Trump crushed his opposition during the debates in the primaries, Hillary will get equally crushed. This election will be about how much Hillary can avoid being in the same room as Trump in front of cameras.

Poll fraud

What else is new?

Shouldn't you be busy housing refugees?

It's not like you can't do both at the same time

>Brexit will never happen

refugees and gypsies actually take breaks. in the morning they sit around and spit and awkwardly ask for money. Then they take a lunch break, during the summer they were gone for a few weeks. They must have gone on vacation.

So are there any polls that have realistic turnout?

Teach the refugees how to shitpost

Thet dont get it yet.

Trump will unleash the barrage starting in late Septemver, constant ads

Last two weeks he's gonna throw the whole artillery.

Last couple of days he'll tie her into 9/11

I PUSH MY FINGERS INTO MY

Good thing the polls are completely rigged like I told you faggots in the last 100 of this thread that you've posted. Look it up. Look up how they get these numbers. You have to be the dumbest fuck on earth to believe these bias polls represent reality. Stop spreading dishonest propaganda.

[captcha: store front]

Or the election was rigged as well?

...

No! They have been skewing in favor of dem turn out by as much as 10 points. The long room have been pretty accurate in the past and evaluates the samples down to individual precinct stats.

longroom.com/polls/

>Trump
>Stormfront

Wew m8 we need to go back

was the ancient hindus nazi? :O

0 polls show Trump winning.

You're gonna tell me every single poll nationally and for every swing state is rigged?

Lol Drumpfkins are hurting bad. Fabricating reality to cope with anal gape.

Yep. The fake polls really have them shitting their pants

Dreams where you die are blue-pill, because as a reaction to death in dream land - you wake up alive... and then you might make associations and think literally dying will make you wake up as a soul or something irrational..It's sad, death is just darkness.

Honestly, I have no idea. There's a ton of problems with getting realistic numbers. I'll list a few.
>Statistics are only considered valid if the sample is a true random sample of actual likely voters.
>Many people contacted will not respond, skewing the results in favor of those who will.
>There's no way to check if the respondents are actually telling the truth.
While I'm sure it's possible to get more accurate numbers, and likely that there are accurate polls out there, you must realize these public polls are not here to reflect true sentiments, but to manipulate the views. The under-sampling of independent voters (13% sampled while being 43% of registered voters) is to keep Johnson and Stein below the 15% required to enter the debates.
If you want accurate numbers You'll have to go state-by-state to analyse the electoral college rules and the demographics of each factor that determined the electoral votes. Perhaps this could be done by taking racial, crime, and economic statistics for each integral region and cross-referencing that data with the likely image of each candidate. Just my 2ยข

UNSKEW THE POLLS WEW LAD

Right wingers are going to Karl Rove out on the polls every 4 years it seems.

CTR shills are trying to use our own memes against us, but they have no dankness skills so their meme usages just fall flat.

Give up CTR, it's embarrassing for all of us now.

He's doing just fine right now. You couldn't tell by the skewed polls. Their trying to get people to go with the "winner" so they spit out doctored polls

You do not "sample" independents or Repubs or Democrats you dumb fucks because there is not sample universe for that. Thats not how phone surveys works. You guys are so fucking ignorant with your first year stats knowledge.

You can only sample/weight to demographics. A couple shit bag charlatans also try to weight to party ID based on previous voting records but this is complete bullshit con artist crap that allows you to appease right wingers or lefties depending on your slant.

nah im just invading from other parts of Sup Forums where we aren't a bunch of crazy sex-starved right wingers

>The long room have been pretty accurate in the past

nigga the website has only existed for less than a year

You love the way I look at you
While taking pleasure in the awful things you put me through
You take away if I give in

MY LIFE, MY PRIDE IS BROKEN

lol you sound like you're a shill without even knowing it

we call you a good goy around these parts

They're all run/bankrolled by the same handful of (((organizations))) so no it isn't unheard of.

STANDING

B B BUT LOOK AT MY ONE POLL THAT CONVENIENTLY REMOVES MUH LIBERAL BIAS!

ON THE EDGEEEE

oh i know. i mean you can call me a shill and good goy if you like. Well memed sir, toppest of memes

>You can only sample/weight to demographics
Except that's not happening at all. They're asking too many democrats and not scaling the responses to match actual demographics

Ritorni a Terronia.

So then why are all the Leftists panicking?

You should be happy, and yet you aren't. You shouldn't give a shit if we believe the polls, because we're gonna lose anyway. But you do give a shit.

Why would you care, if they were true?

1) They don't choose who answers the surveys (if it's phone) so it definitely could be biased, which is a topical issue in statistics
2) You reweight to demographics (sex, age, race, state) but not much else. If you see a poll that is not weighted to those demographics at all, yes you should ignore it. This is not normally the case for the major polls. No one should re-weight to party. Ever. If someone does that, discard the poll even if the numbers feel good to you because that violates survey statistics.

I should add one caveat; I'm speaking about registered voter numbers from polls.

The likely voter numbers are a black box of biased bullshit that pollsters come up with. They don't always disclose their methodology which is textbook language for "we're doing some real bullshit please don't look"

Well the problem here is that they're polling
38% republicans (28% registered voters are this)
13% independents (43% registered voters are this)
48% democrats (29% registered voters are this)
So by your logic they should toss the poll, but instead they publish it time and time again as truth.
If you take only the republican response and scale that to their proportion nationally, and do the same for independents and democrats, do you get a more accurate result or more trash?
So then how can one get unbiased results, short of intuition?

people-press.org/2015/04/07/a-deep-dive-into-party-affiliation/

because democrats are a majority

Donald will never be the republican nominee
youtube.com/watch?v=awVNkMBSsjE

>more democrats are likely to vote than republicans
Literally impossible, the democrats aren't fielding a black candidate this election.

you do not scale (i.e. weight) to party. You do not this. This is a violation of all good sense and methodology. People change what they say about their Party ID based on whats in vogue and in the news, especially Republicans (who like to say they're Independent depending on day of the week).

To get unbiased results is honestly impossible because it assumes all types of people in the US are just as likely to answer a survey (and we know poor folks and spanish speakers are less likely to). But you try to get a solid random sample, usually geographically, or cell and landline phone numbers (based on area code etc). Then you pull out only the people who said they are registered to vote (no matter party). Then you weight based on age, gender, and maybe race to census data.

The best poll I've seen on methodology so far is Fox News, but desu most of the main ones follow that basic practice.

Woah, at this rate Hillary will no doubt have 99% of the vote. :^)

UNSKEW
N
S
K
E
W

Party identification=/=party registration
Most voters identify as "leaning" democrat or republican (they vote the same straight ticket every year). Not even 10% of all voters every split tickets OR vote for a different party one year over the next.

Why do white boys get so mad when they get BTFO by literal niggers?

I've never seen a team bitch about the game being rigged before its over

>ruled by a nigger
>ruled by a woman
What's next for the americucks?

That makes sense. Point does remain that the establishment, across parties, sides with Clinton, not because of her competency, but because they know they can control her. My intuition screams that the polls are complete bullshit and clinton is barely pulling 25-30% nationally.

Ruled by a canadian.

thats not enough for them

they want 101%+

Ruled by a hijabi.

>my intuition
Not a source faggot. You better become #mentallyhill before the nigger hordes arrive at your door step.

The main polls are decent, and Clinton probably leads.

However the polls this year are fucking crazy because the two main candidates, even in two way questions, only pull 80-85% of the vote, meaning 15% of people are saying "neither" right now. On election day this is really unlikely that 15% will vote third party, so right now the two-way polls could swing a lot because there are a ton of undecided people that could make 45-40 Clinton lead be a 52-45 Trump lead without Clinton losing a single vote.

>My intuition
Lol this is the state of conservacucks
>f-fuck data, my feelings
>I want the guy I like to win bad!!!

FEAR IS HOW I FAAAAAALLLLL

Wow, the Clinton News Network put out a poll saying Clinton was in the lead?! Incredible!

It could have gone so smoothly with based cruz
Imagine the memes :(

EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSS

How retarded are you? The vote counts are "unskewed" to account for the uneven distribution afterwards.

>clinton news network

Remember how all the Brexit polls predicted that remain would win?

>Ted Cruz
This kills the rat:
theonion.com/video/brutal-anti-cruz-attack-ad-just-30-seconds-candida-52562

Remember how there was only one outlier in the Brexit polls showing a victory for remain?

Except they really didn't The last week of polls said Leave would win but no one really wanted to believe it, so they put all their hope in like a couple final day Ipsos polls that showed a narrow Remain win by like 1 pt.

This is a dead meme. Leave was forecast to win the final week of the vote, until the last day because no one wanted to believe.

Try harder, faggot. Pollsters were already outed as being cartoonishly oversampled in favor of Democrats. Ask some independents (this country's largest voting bloc) next time.