S O U T H

S O U T H
C A R O L I N A
>"Mitt Romney had his chance to beat a failed president but he choked like a dog"
>mfw Trump can't even win sure-thing GOP states
inb4 someone questions the accuracy of 538, which predicted every state correctly last time out

Polls change. Post this in November.

Can the Republicans afford a Trump loss?

You're right. I am now a shill for hill

ive included the electoral and popular vote stats

>dems pick the shittiest most corrupt and uncharismatic candidate possible
>republicans somehow manage to find a candidate even worse

Trump is down 7.5 points. That's it.

SC has a huge black population but I still think Hilldog has a better chance at Utah. Mormon Republicans will stay home or vote Johnson

dae everyone who disagrees with me is le shill xDD

polls may change m8 but trump's average is bottoming out in the high 30s and romney never dipped below 43 even at his lowest points

pic related, current rcp average. this is WITHOUT today's poll showing hillary up 50-37

The Republicans as we know it are a dead party. After this election they won't be what once knew them as.

How can anyone honestly believe this? Are they going for the "people will believe a big lie more than a small one" thing? Because its not working.

and this is 2012 rcp average. note the y-axis

The polls are fabricated. They are trying to sell the narrative that Hillary is ahead so there won't be full on rebellion when they use voting machines to rig the election for her.

That's it? Dude, Romney was only behind 3.4 points at this point, not even half the lead of Shillary on Stump. Hes a fucking mess

Shy Tory Effect gives Trump ~+5.

Carolina is red, can't see it going blue even with the black votes.

Romney was a potato man. Trump can actually recover. Look up Shy Tory Effect. Remember the Brexit

It's almost as if the next POTUS was decided before the potential candidates were even announced to the proles isn't it....

ok, so every single polling outlet is colluding with one another AND ALSO with some nebulous cabal of people that have the capacity to rig the voting machines? is that what you're saying? is there even a way to falsify this batshit insane idea?

go home jeb

this looks just like the trump hillary one.
Thanks for proving national polls don't mean shit.

SC here,
There is no fucking way in a frozen hell this is accurate.

This isn't an EU referendum dumb dumb

Remember the Brexit

The Brexit that had polls and figures showing a potential for a 51% victory for either side right up until the day of the vote?

And the paranoia begins.

still fucking voting

The Dylan Roof effect.

nice try. but here are the brexit poll averages. much closer than this blowout-in-the-making
are you retarded? hint: look at the pretty little numbers on the side of the y-axes, and compare them. at Romney's nadir he was closer than Trump has been for the majority of the race.

Did you even read the DNC leaks, retard? CNN, Politic, ABC were implicated on taking orders from the Dems.

SC here again, Hillary definitely has a chance but it'll be close and she'll have to spend time and money there to keep it which might make her not try cause theres easier states

Brexit polling is feeding alot of delusions. This airs slightly on the side of desperate berniebros.

I want Texas to turn blue.

Eh being down in the polls is always going to be like that. We're not deluded of course. It's bad, it's just stupid to think Trump's done.

Stay conspiratorial, Trumpist idiot.

Trump is cooked. Just accept the inevitable.

more like Republicans on the night of the 2012 election delusional

True, but if Trump needs to spend money in what should be a red state then he's on full defense mode and his campaign must be losing their shit.

why do people even believe this shitty website

they planted storylines, not poll numbers. did you even read the DNC leaks, retard?

also, lmao at not knowing that the stable of independent pollsters goes way beyond mainstream media outlets. or are you too dense to distinguish between Quinnipiac University and Politico?

It will soon.

why are you such a cuck? I know you're mexican and all, but why even have that image? Fucking kill yourself

because their model predicted every single state correctly in the 2012 presidential election at a time when pundits were insisting the race was a toss-up

Brexit polls were off by about ±3%. So unless you're saying you can go and add a 0 after that giving national hamburger polls ±30% in order to give oranjello a chance brexit means jack shit. the british being pussies and hiding their opinions does not mean americans are suddenly going to do the same thing but ten times harder

Trump will win

>last time out
and that´s exactly why 538 is completely up it´s own ass

Their numbers are almost always right. It's their opinions that sometimes are wrong, and a few primary states were wrong but thats how percentages work

WTF im in South Carolina, this is bullshit.

>predicted every state correctly last time out

Last time was establishment vs establishment. Makes a big difference.

right because they honestly believe SC and AZ/Missouri are going blue, fucking ridiculous.

i think you guys are in agreement
>durrrr evidence is irrelevant if i say so

pic related it's what reality is going to do to this board on nov 9. i just hope we get a live-streamed an hero or two

Wait until the first debate when Trump attacks Shill and she goes into an autistic fit of rage and has as seizure. Until that happens, the polls will keep showing the Don down.

>95%
I-I swear we don´t have propaganda and indoctrination.

Fucking Adolf Hitler had less % when he annexed Austria.

>arizona

>blue

Try taking a poll off a college campus and see what happens, cunts.

What is this one particular fucking poll I see that keeps making Hillary out to be the greatest thing ever? It's fucking CNN isn't it.

They would have lost for sure with a "true" Republican. If Trump is proving anything, it's that old Republicanism is fucking dead.

AZ could very easily go blue and it has in the past.

>Nate Silver's opinion
Not even a poll, let alone a scientific poll.

Have you been in a coma? Tons of polls literally changed their methodology to show Clinton ahead of Trump. If she's really winning so soundly...why do that?

Trump:
>has the full support of the entire RNC, including its fundraising apparatus and chairman
>has the support of former speaker Newt Gingrich and current speaker Paul Ryan
>has successfully ostracized those still withholding support from the party machinery
>has remade the GOP in his image and seeded its highest ranks with his allies

that is the DEFINITION of establishment. Trump IS the establishment now

Shills for Hills!!

>Texas gradually turning pink

not in the past 16 years you dumb faggot. Before that any state could swing either way.

>leaf poster yet again

have (You) been in a coma? remember in 2012 when people had the exact same complaint? remember how everyone wanted to 'unskew the polls' because the methodology was supposedly corrupt? remember how that turned out?

>i'm better at statistics than professional statisticians
>i don't understand that there are more registered democrats than republicans in the country

Jesus, just came home to grab lunch and browsed. Day Sup Forums is a completely different beast than night Sup Forums. I can't tell if its the shills working their 9-5 or the Europeans using proxies.

That wont happen. If they do something illegal the blood will run in the streets when we activate all the militia groups and start killing federals and liberals.

...your tone makes it sound like you're arguing against me, but you're supporting my point.

Brexit is in no way relatable to Trump, they're entirely different scenarios.

sounds like i hit a nerve

>no, no, yes
>yes, no
>nobody cares about Bushes and Kochs, this is what voters wanted
>just like any primary victor in any election ever
top cuck

It's all the Californians bring their liberal votes in

Regardless, Brexit won, this will win too

There's too much establishment lies and bullshit, the people aren't having it

SHILL POLL SHILL POLL SHILL POLL SHILL POLL SHILL POLL SHILL POLL SHILL POLL SHILL POLL SHILL POLL SHILL POLL SHILL POLL SHILL POLL SHILL POLL SHILL POLL SHILL POLL SHILL POLL SHILL POLL SHILL POLL SHILL POLL SHILL POLL SHILL POLL SHILL POLL SHILL POLL SHILL POLL SHILL POLL SHILL POLL SHILL POLL SHILL POLL SHILL POLL SHILL POLL SHILL POLL

If NH and ME D2 go blue I'll quit prognosticating policitics forever
Let alone AZ, GA, SC, and FL

Lyndon B. Johnson is still remembered fondly in Texas.

THE LEADER OF THE RIGHT WING RETARDS IS GOING DOWN IN EPIC FASHION

bait silver going all-out with the jewing this year

she's stopped her ads and money in virginia and colorado, her campaign saying internal polls were so good there they'd rather put the money elsewhere

so she could just as well put money in SC, even if she doesn't win, just to make trump have to put more money there than a republican normally would have to.

She's also killing him in reality: Hillary has huge attendence at her enormous rallies, millions more followers on social media and tons of constant media events like public speeches and press conferences

Wait a second here that isn't true that isn't really happening.

Why are all these polls not reflecting reality this is really making my brain function...

You're the idiot who doesn't bother actually looking at their polls. Its the NOW polls. Their polls-plus polls are a lot more predictive of what will happen in Nov, but the better the NOW polls continue to be for hills the slightly better it'll be for hills in the polls-plus

>people comparing this election to Obama vs Romney

>Nate ((((((((Silver))))))))

Florida here, everything is on paper.

...

no, it's that republican voters are astoundingly stupid.

Hillary's chief tactic is shutting down forms of legitimate discussion and leaving everything up to her hyper-liberal entertainers who tell you that Drumpf is an orange bankrupt Nazi.

Does anyone have a source on her intentionally avoiding debates with Bernie?

If Sup Forums had any shred of self-respect they would accept the fact that they have no evidence whatsoever that the statistical methods used by 538 are somehow faulty and that they have no evidence whatsoever that all the aggregated polls conducted so far are for some reason biased toward Hillary.

If you insist 538's statistical analysis is untrustworthy, put out your own predictions using valid statistical methods.

Fucking. Faggots.

Kek.
All the racist old people are dying out, the entire US will be blue by 2028.

Rallys aren't reality idiot thats why. Otherwise Bernie would be leading instead of Clinton right now. Trump is just a new toy fun to watch.

/thread

/thread

>Never Trump!

Just let me die in my sleep.

this is the best kind of epistemic relativism
>poll numbers--literal statistical data--isn't "reality"
>only twitter followers and football stadiums--utterly anecdotal, no predictive value--are "reality"
i'll wake you up when reality strikes on nov 9 breh

Not a chance. Shills be shilling and pollsters be lying. The fix is in boys. But wait until she has a stroke or heart attack during the debates. She might even die on stage. Trump time bitch, eat a dick.

>Brexit won, this will win too
A+ flawless logic

Nate Tin doesn't base this off state polls. He maps national polls to historical state outcomes which is retarded.

Don't listen to the ledditfags, Trump has zero ZERO chance of winning. Don't let them derail these threads, the polls speak for themselves. Don't even bother voting he's DONE.

>people comparing Brexit to this election

Wow this map is getting worse and worse

>inb4 someone questions the accuracy of 538, which predicted every state correctly last time out

And they predicted the primary 100% wrong this year. Two weeks ago they had him around 50% now 4%, this is anything but stable.

Nate Silver has his own opinions. He's said himself that he believes Trump has a very good shot at winning. But his opinions in no way affect his ability to do statistics.

>people genuinely believe Hillary will win South Carolina and Georgia

If nothing else, this race has shown me how truly stupid the average person is.