DONT BELIEVE THE POLLS. TRUMP IS ACTUALLY UP 0.6% ON THE UNBIASED (LONGROOM) POLLS

DONT BELIEVE THE POLLS. TRUMP IS ACTUALLY UP 0.6% ON THE UNBIASED (LONGROOM) POLLS

Don't let them put the seed of doubt in your mind.

Other urls found in this thread:

fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-arent-skewed-trump-really-is-losing-badly/
washingtonpost.com/politics/clinton-campaign-to-devote-more-money-workers-to-arizona-georgia/2016/08/09/46150062-5e2e-11e6-8e45-477372e89d78_story.html
cesrusc.org/election/
salon.com/2014/11/05/how_did_nate_silvers_forecasts_stack_up_against_midterm_results/
fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/
twitter.com/NSFWRedditVideo

fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-arent-skewed-trump-really-is-losing-badly/

The shills can't even choose unbiased polls. That tells you how retarded they are.

trumpkins, will you be live streaming your suicides on november 9th?

He lost already. Even Georgia and Arizona are in play now. Just let this meme rest. We get to shit on Shillary for 8 years which is alright too.

washingtonpost.com/politics/clinton-campaign-to-devote-more-money-workers-to-arizona-georgia/2016/08/09/46150062-5e2e-11e6-8e45-477372e89d78_story.html

Not even a Trumplet, but why is fivethirtyeight still in business? They have precisely zero credibility left.

Stop posting those fake polls. You think you are helping anybody? If Trump supporters stay in the denial there is no chance he will win. I start to suspect that jewroom polls are just another shill's trick.

tl;dr: fuck off and fuck you

>longroom

It's because your tinfoil hat is on too tight

i literally don't understand what the shitstorm is about. most are just waiting until the election day.

you niggers learned nothing from brexit or what?

That confirms THIS poll:
cesrusc.org/election/

>site hasn't made a correct prediction or produced an editorial insight in years
>"hurr ur conspiracy"

Yeah, whatever moron.

Longroom is a phony site designed to garner ad revenue from delusional Trump supporters.

The people running the site do not actually exist, their names give no leads when you search them despite many of them allegedly having years in the business

> Assuming Landrieu and Begich lose their seats, > FiveThirtyEight will have correctly predicted the > outcomes of every Senate contest but two.

salon.com/2014/11/05/how_did_nate_silvers_forecasts_stack_up_against_midterm_results/

yeah, Nate Silver's pretty terrible desu

>tfw Trump is one good gaffe away from losing Texas

>inb4 trumpkins nonironically claiming Trump will make it to November without saying something retarded

>salon

Fuck right off of Sup Forums

Aren't those the same faggots that had to go back and explain why Trump won the primaries? Always putting our a new ceiling for him?

If Obama could not flip Georgia aftr 8 years of Bush or against stale as fuck Romney the Georgia polls are complete BS.

Brexit polls were nearly 50:50 before referendum, Trump is 7 points behind Hillary. I would love to see her lost elections but it doesn't looks good. I hope Assange will drop a bomb as he promised, but...

CTR is in Poland too? Where do I sign up for some easy soros shekels?

It was the easiest result for "fivethirtyeight 2014 predictions" but keep being salty

To be fair, if there's one person who knows the real numbers, it's Trump.

It's not us they're trying to convince. It's the GOP bosses. This is the largest mass media coordinated attack since the push for the Iraq war and is being used to stump the Trump. The goal is to scare away donors so the already tepid GOP bosses will move to pick a different candidate. It's absolutely bullshit based on left-wing wet dreams but such an attacks impact is unknown.

One thing is certain. The media cannot keep up a sustained attack because eventually people get tired of hearing it and begin to question the validity of the message and the trustworthiness of the media.

Oh fuck you, I despise Clinton in every possible way. I am just not delusional, polls looks bad and it means something must change.

BTW people like (((YOU))) shouting shills on everybody who isn't super-duper-hura-optimistic and pointing the problems and mistakes are cancer-that-is-killing-Sup Forums. You are just helping shills in creating chaos. Assuming you are not proxi shill.

Oj you stupid cucks. He is behind right now but who cares ? The debates are coming and Hillary will very likely do absolutely terrible in those unless the whole health problem thing was faked by her to trick trump into thinking that she will be easy to eviscerate.

Who fucking cares about Polls? Just wait till election day, then you'll get the unbiased report on who'll win

I hope he has something on her, it would be funny if in the middle of the debate he would show documents connecting her with ISIS or something like that. Also although I don't like him very much I must say that he is pretty good showman. When will be first debate?

26th September I think.

Trump actually has 67% to Hillarys 17%.

Every time a shill harasses the board with fake polls, a jew gets his wings.

Vote Trump!

>The polls have been off before, but no one knows by how much beforehand, or in which direction they’ll miss.

Might as well publish this shit in hebrew

> every state has equal population / electoral college representation

nigger do you even math?

Half their population deserves to be slaughtered for trying to elect someone they apparently are too stupid and ignorant to know has rigged the election in more ways than you can count on your hand, that robbed old people of their homes with a clever loophole, that released a bunch of puerto rican terrorists, that lied about terrorist attacks, that armed ISIS, that compromised the entire special access program system with her attempt to avoid FOIA requests.. etc etc etc etc

They are anti-american, a civil war should break out and they should all be gotten rid of.

Its not right.

They are either evil or ignorant and willing tools of evil people.

I just looked at the fox poll from colorado when considering betting, and I was so angered by the number of "white" people who view Trump unfavorably, there is just no hope.

Its 50% who are strongly unfavorably in that state, for Trump.. Hillary beats him with almost every demographic, and leads by like 10 points according to the FOX poll.

Doesnt account for the small states not being worth dick all, they called 1k people in a state worth 3 and 1k in texas which is worth 34.

He easily wins the popular vote.

I hope you suffer.

Go ahead and elect her, you disgusting pissant scumbag, I hope yellowstone goes off and kills you all and I live just long enough to laugh at you.

This is the future

I'm actually waiting for him to say either "I'm God" or "Fuck God".

>0.5 shekels have been "donated" to your account

Do you even math, you retarded fuck?

67 is a very high number and 19 very low, especially at this point in the race. Regardless of how important some states are vs. others, Hillary has her work cut out for her winning all those big states. Probably impossible for her to win given these numbers if the election was held this week.

Youre going to elect someone who promotes hate against white people in a climate of desperate resistance to white genocide.

Prepare to get slaughtered with everyone you know and love, pretty much, because a Trump loss is civil war.

This isn't going to happen, but I'm proud that even on this retarded picture, I'm from a state that they're not even bold enough to claim will vote blue.

>Half their population deserves to be slaughtered for trying to elect someone they apparently are too stupid and ignorant to know has rigged the election in more ways than you can count on your hand, that robbed old people of their homes with a clever loophole, that released a bunch of puerto rican terrorists, that lied about terrorist attacks, that armed ISIS, that compromised the entire special access program system with her attempt to avoid FOIA requests.. etc etc etc etc

>I didnt know she did those things!

Isnt going to cut it.

Its your duty to find out what youre voting for, you take the trip outside to vote and its not for Trump, you might as well have collectively laughed at all our kids being raped and the rapist getting off, etc.

I won't Komrad.

seriously at this point its not a issue. just take out a loan student/business/what ever if she wins and fly to another country as a tourist then become a citizen of that country and never pay the debt

the liberals cant pull the same routine if trump wins since half of them have student debt already and cant get a loan because their debt to income ratio is fucked

The polling methodology by those college kids (assuming it was actually done, which fuck I'm too busy to go look up) is literally retarded.

It's weighing all 1000 households in North Dakota the same as California or New York, despite an unimaginably large difference in population and voting base.

If you break it down by state, you will see some that are greatly pro-Trump (like Oklahoma). Polling those states and giving them a disproportionately large weight will make you think more of the country swings to Trump than really does.

>Yes,yes, you are winning goys, no worry, just relax and w8.

Sup Forums pls

Take off the stormfoil hat buddy. Also:
>canadians
>slaughtering anything except perfectly good french fries

hnnnng those cheese curds

diamonds now

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHAHAHAHHAHAHAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

I'm crying right now

>DONT BELIEVE THE POLLS.
Where do you think you are?
we've known the media was nothing but lies and trash all our lives

>0.4 kurwas have been deposited into your checking account

I have no idea what your currency is but as far as I'm concerned its kurwa

They aren't weighing the states at all.

They're just saying they did a poll for the population as a whole and called 1000 people from each state and further broke things down to get an equal number of registered voters from each side and independents.

The only thing missing from this picture is the weight of each state based on its number electoral votes, but that's what I just addressed. Even if the majority of the states that Trump is pulling that almost 70% figure with are lighter states, there are strategies to win by getting lots of those states to counter-balance the heavier states. And 70% is a hard number to fuck with, given that's an option.

Like I said, Hillary won't have an easy time pulling through, even if she focused her attention 100% on the most heavily weighted states. With Trump's big number, if he even got a couple of those big states, it might just be over for her.

Well, your is probably under-age girls.

JK, we know you are proxy faggot :*

LEL

Is it possible? Which states he can took over? Also, I just checked some polls and they show that with current numbers he would get almost half of Clinton's electoral votes. Why is it? I thought that number of electors (I am not sure how you call them) depend on number of inhabitants. Please educate me.

>We

gtfo portugal. go kiss african ass as they rape your women.

They polled "the population as a whole" using a polling method that does not match population distribution. They then did not normalize their data to meet the population distribution.

Instead of giving you raw data so you could at least do the work for them, they then gave you a bogus analysis.

I...look, go take a math class, take a government class, and look at an electoral map.

he's been completely wrong on everything in the gop primary. he had trump at 2% chance to win the gop primary. he's fucking terrible at his """"job."""

just face it, he's a bought-out corporate shill like the rest of them.

not even a trump supporter, but trump is going to win big, he will destroy shillary and, just like brexit, the polls will be exposed as the weak, low-energy propaganda they are.

hopefully nate bronze sudoku's himself in shame after being BTFO by trump.

>538 predicted 2% chance of trump winning GOP nomination
>nate from 538 wrote like a hundred articles on "why trump won't win nomination"
>538 is credible

top kek

A state's electoral votes are proportional to its population (more or less, with exceptions). However most states are winner-takes-all, so if California with 55 electoral votes is 60% hillary 40% trump, Trump's not going to get 20 EC votes, he'll get 0 from California.

Hence the concept of battleground states and the like.

>people are making honest polls instead of blindly believing what the ((media)) spits out
>THIS IS BAD


Kek

You KNOW these mainstream polls are the way they are so it isn't as suspicious when shillary and the gang rig the elections, right? Like how she rigged it during the primaries?


Heres some interesting food for thought; Trump has huge rallies consistently in every state. He draws people in by tens of thousands. What about hillary? Why do i see more Trump support among my community and absolutely zero for clinton? I know people voting third party and trump, but not hillary. Why is that?

Why can Trump draw in massive physical numbers to his rallies and events, as well as receive the most votes during the primaries, but hillary is lucky to get 50 people to show up and has less people voting for her in the primaries compared to trump?

It depends on the number of citizens of each state based on polling I believe is done every 10 years, but each state starts with I believe 3 votes, (2 for each Senator and one for the bare minimum number of representatives in congress each state has).

So, yeah you can win a bunch of states that are each only worth 3 votes, and someone else can just campaign heavily in California and get 55 right there.

However, the smaller states are not to be ignored completely, as they do add up.

I'm guessing Hillary's best bet is to just focus on the biggest states and completely ignore the rest, because it seems like she's completely destroyed in the popular vote. And blacks, latinos, and pseudo-intellectual yuppies are a big piece of a lot of the bigger states, so of course that's her best hope.

But, even in those states, they're still "minorities" and I wouldn't be surprised if Trump pulled a few of the big ones too.

Truthfully I'm not sure, but I think:

vast majority of small states + a few big states > rest of the big states

>winner-takes-all
That's fucked up. Thanks for answer, I will read more about it. You elections are much more entertaining than ours.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/

> The big mistake is a curious one for a website that focuses on statistics. Unlike virtually every other forecast we publish at FiveThirtyEight — including the primary and caucus projections I just mentioned — our early estimates of Trump’s chances weren’t based on a statistical model. Instead, they were what we “subjective odds” — which is to say, educated guesses. In other words, we were basically acting like pundits, but attaching numbers to our estimates.

And since then, they've shut up and gone back to the numbers.

which is exactly like all the fake "national" polls being put out every other day that magically, miraculously show clinton ahead 49-39 or whatever because they oversample dems by 10-15%.

this poll: is just as valid as all those 1,000-sample-size "national" polls, if not more valid because of 50,000 sample size.

get fukt you absolutely retarded shill.

>inb4 muh electoral college.
duh you fucking nigger, these are "national" polls, not state-by-state. stay mad that your media is lying to you and trying to play you like the fool that you are.

>not even a trump supporter, but trump is going to win big, he will destroy shillary and, just like brexit, the polls will be exposed as the weak, low-energy propaganda they are

AHAHHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHAHAHHAHA
MY GOD DRUMPFTARDS ARE FUCKING DESPERATE!
I CAN'T WAIT TO SEE RIGHT WING WHITE MALES GO QUIETLY INTO THE NIGHT LIKE YOU SHOULD AHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAH H FUCK WHITE PEOPLE

I don't see where we're disagreeing. I understand that the popular vote doesn't mean shit until you factor in how many electoral votes each individual state has.

I'm just saying that's a really big number for the popular vote, and I wouldn't be surprised if Trump takes some big states too based on that number.

>don' worry goy-- err, guys...i was just messing around before! i will totally be honest with you now!!! sure, i'll be honest now...

suuuure, with his "nowcast."

the guy is a corporate shill and just because he makes a claim, gullible fools like you believe him. i bet you think clinton will be true to one single goddamn thing she says in a single speech of hers (she won't).

you are so gullible it hurts.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-arent-skewed-trump-really-is-losing-badly/

> We’ve reached that stage of the campaign. The back-to-school commercials are on the air, and the “unskewing” of polls has begun

(keking softly to self)

> The basic premise of the unskewers is wrong. Most pollsters don’t weight their results by party self-identification, which polls get by asking a question like “generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a….” Party identification is an attitude, not a demographic.

>italy

have you just given up on your country and have completely let it be overtaken by african muslims? are you just letting all your women be raped by invaders? you'd rather come on an american message board and berate americans for trying to stop a muslim invasion because you've failed?

or...more likely...

CtR is using proxies again. i wish mods would clean up the spam like yours.

>538

Both have senate races
What other red states have senate races this year, I wonder?

BUMP

I'M NOT EVEN IN FUCKING ITALY WHITE BOY. IT'S A PROXY YOU RETARDED DRUMPFTARD

You know even if he is actually as behind as the polls seem to show, it still could change in debates as things progress.

Right, I'm trying to indicate that the "really big number" isn't an indicator of popular vote. To be an indicator of popular vote you could:

Take 50000 polls from random phone numbers in the U.S.

Take 1000 polls from each state, and weigh to the state's population

(The top methodology would be slightly better, as it wouldn't rely on old census data)

If you don't do either of those things, then the result you get is literally nonsense. It means nothing, it has no correlation to voting behavior or attitudes of the country as a whole.

This is the fifth thread I've seen this exact quote in...

Did you even finish his post?

Hourly reminder.

>538 has zero credibility
Retarded trumpfag

Silver's credibility is on accuracy of elections

The primary isn't an election, and even still nobody could see just how fucking stupid the majority of republicans are

>fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-arent-skewed-trump-really-is-losing-badly/
what's your point?

polls are released with 45% self-identified democrats, 35% self-identified republicans and 20% self-identified independents, then, they make a huge claim about how clinton is winning by 10%.

THAT, is a skewed poll. are you trying to claim it is not just by posting an opinion piece by proven fraud nate silver?

god he is still so salty over getting BTFO by trump in the primary.

he said trump had a 2% chance of winning. jesus that guy fucking sucks at his """"job"""""

he should just quit now.

Gonna ask japmoot to be a mod so someone actually cleans retards like you up.

yeah, then the Hurricane hit and ruined it for Romney. Go away faggot troll

Nate silver is a hack and an idiot. What accurate prediction did he make this year? He predicted trump would lose the primaries hard because hes writing his articles to satisfy a leftist bias.

so, in other words, i was completely correct in my post?

Thanks for Correcting the Record™!

Nowcast isn't the default option, the default option is Polls-Only aka what you get when Silver doesn't try to be a pundit, and Polls-Only looks pretty much exactly like RCP

lmfao, you're blaming a wannabe pollster's delusions on the weather? trumplets hitting new levels of desperation here

>HAHAHA unbiased polls HAHAHA what a stupid idea!

let's go back to oversampling dems by 10% that will really show them! sorry, but your low-energy shill tactics don't work here, bitch

>primaries
Learn to read you stupid fuck

Please, please look at how fucking wrong UnSkewed was in 2012. Longroom is the same damn joke.

Sup Forums preaches that polls are jewtools for influencing voters but don't mean anything because they are skewed towards the libtards, but unless your worldview is that the elections these unskewed polls have already gotten completely wrong were in facted rigged by voting machine fraud, then the truth is that the polls are accurate and you should probably deal with that reality.

I'm not saying there's not a Tory-effect. I'm not saying some demographics will be more or less likely to go out and vote in November. And I'm certainly not saying shit can't change, because it can.

If you believe people are paying for bad polling data that doesn't help them predict or win an election, that's just crazytown.

>The primary isn't an election

HOLY SHIT THOSE MOVING GOALPOSTS. Nate, just stop. you're drunk. we all know yo're a complete jew hack with zero credibility left. maybe you can get a weekend AM radio show in florida or something.

What would you then consider the sudden swing in the direction of Obama? If not Chris Christe saying "Obama is handling this situation very well" (which he wasnt). Public opinion just doesnt change suddenly overnight for without reason.

The only desperate ones are the Hilldogs and CTR fags.

You see, pol is right now the frontline of a cyber war between CTR, who seeks to demoralize and slide threads to silence people, and Russia, who seeks to agitate, use black propaganda, ( ironically it's "white" nationalist propaganda) and plant mentle seeds in the alt right in hopes will turn violent in the likely event trump looses, convincing then the election was stolen when the reality is he is loosing badly

>a primary is an election
You really are just a stupid fuck

Well a bit salty but also kinda humble about it? I mean he says he fucked up and started mouthing off like a pundit instead of analyzing data.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/

> The FiveThirtyEight “polls-only” model has correctly predicted the winner in 52 of 57 (91 percent) primaries and caucuses so far in 2016, and our related “polls-plus” model has gone 51-for-57 (89 percent).

Do you even have the ability to read?

>unskewed
>longroom

THEY ARE TWO DIFFERENT SITES. you can't just say ,"oh this site was wrong 4 years ago, therefore this site must also necessarily be wrong 4 years later just because i don't like it!"

there are insider polls that don't reach the public. independent, non-corporate polls that are actually used by the campaigns. the stuff that gets put in the media (newspapers/tv) just help reinforce whatever interest now owns those media companies (hillary-the dnc machine, this isn't even debatable).

and the polls have absolutely been wrong many times, including brexit and just about every clinton/bernie poll during the primaries.

not even a trump supporter, but hillary is going to get BTFO by trump in november. he will win in a landslide.

Trump supporters are getting to Bernie-tier desperation level.

It's sad to see. I knew this day would come. I'll still vote Trump, but I knew he couldn't win.