Why shouldn't I believe Nate Silver? A man who successfully called the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 U.S...

Why shouldn't I believe Nate Silver? A man who successfully called the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election, then correctly called all 50 states in the 2012 election?

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Other urls found in this thread:

variety.com/2016/digital/news/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-donald-trump-wrong-1201767374/
twitter.com/NSFWRedditVideo

I'm waiting

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He said it himself that it was impossible to predict Trump

variety.com/2016/digital/news/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-donald-trump-wrong-1201767374/

Can you not read? He literally said it's not impossible for Trump to win, which is what his statistics say, it's not. That doesn't speak about the odds, it's absolutes.

Also he never said "it's impossible to predict trump". Reading comprehension is important.

This is why.

No shit, the entire article is about how he failed to predict anything Trump did. So why would you assume that any prediction this man gives is relatively accurate?

Nothing in here is wrong. Trump at Aug11 WAS losing the nomination for example. Only a couple of those stories are definite statements, and those that are are true or were at the time of their posting.

Because he predicted the last two elections months ahead of time down to the state. You're absolutely delusional and in an hugbox echo chamber if you're refusing to believe in polls or statistics simply when they show you what you don't want to see.

Annddd how is that any different from right now? It's litterally august 11th and he's behind in the polls and he ended up crushing it.

You're not making a very strong argument

LOL! What does that even mean? When did he predict it? 4 months ahead of time? He constantly shifts his predictions every fucking day, why would you think that his current prediction is anywhere close to his final one?

>Nothing in here is wrong.
>Trump has a 2% chance of winning.
>Trump won't win a war against Fox News
>Donald Trump is losing the nomination
>Carson would over take Trump
>Polls don't mean shit goy (unless of course they favor Clinton hehehe)
>Donald is finished! He lost Iowa!
>It's over... goy... trust me.
>Fuck okay...okay.. maybe Ted can stop him?
>OKAY! MAYBE CRUZ CAN BEAT HIM IN WISCONSIN

Then at the very end is just one giant article showing how much he fucked up.

Tell me, why should I trust Nate Bronze? I'd like your reasoning.

Ended up crushing what? The nomination? Yes but at the time, he was losing it. Which is literally what the post said. It wasn't a prediction or a predictive statement. It said "He's losing", which he was. Not "He's going to lose or likely to lose". Why do I need to explain how words work and what they mean to you? Is English your first language?

wtf I am now a hill shill

>Georgia
>any shade of blue

>I don't like facts unless they support my views!

And tell me how that is different from right now

It is LITERALLY august 11th right now, just like last years article where he was saying the exact same shit. Of course he's going to say Trump is going to lose, but fuck man, trump is behind what? by 6 or 7%? That swing happened in just 3 days, after pollsters changed how they poll. I think it's ignorant of you to assume Trump has no support when he broke records in the primaries and the democrats had shit turnout.

Kill yourself you fucking nigger turd

Yes, because let's forget the fact Georgia refused to go Blue even when Bill Clinton ran for his 2nd term (And even then Bill Clinton only won Georgia with a 0.59% lead during the 1992 election), or when Obama ran for office twice and it still went Red.

You know he's a jew right?

Notice how this election, pretty much each and every Jew affiliated with either party is freaking the fuck out about Trump

>called elections with the worst republican candidates in years

wow what a genius

((( S I L V E R )))

you post the same thing everyday you goy

>polls are facts

Jews? You wanna talk about Jews? Let's talk about the most pro-Israel candidate in modern US history.

Trump is cucking you to the Jews, you kike cock sucker

Cuz they don't know who's jewing who.

Obama wasn't great with the kikes, so they're a bit scared at this point.

Nate Silver
>Nathaniel
>Silver
He's a fucking Jew that's why

Nice job ignoring my post and that other guys post where we blow you the fuck out you fucking faggot. Go shill somewhere else.

Also check these trips.

>we blow you the fuck out
How? By ignoring facts and calling me a jew when you're supporting Mike 'the kike" Pence?

You refuse to believe the numbers. There's no way to refute
>you post the same thing everyday you goy
Because it's childish

Because of the volatility of current polling results.
Btw he calls nothing, just aggregates data.

See
You claimed that nothing in the picture I posted was wrong. I then went on to explain a list of things that were wrong. You ignored the picture, and refused to answer my question:

Why should I trust Nate Bronze over anyone else?

because of his shit record with trump, it was hilarious in the primaries

Nate Silver is a JEW.

Only a Sith deals in absolutes.

The vast majority of those aren't definitive statements. Why am I repeating myself? Because you don't understand what a prediction is. I'm not saying Trump can't win, I'm saying he very likely won't.

You're an idiot. He collects it all and creates a system to determine the final outcome. The PECOTA system for example.

So is Trump, dumbass.

The '08 and '12 elections you mentioned were easy to predict because they were as traditional as they come and he had the entire history of the United States election cycles to build his models off. No matter what libtards say Obama was a traditional candidate, just he was black so for once black people felt encouraged to go vote and have a black guy in power even though he has made life worse for blacks since being elected and has incited a race war. I don't mind blacks voting but 80% of them are highly uneducated and frankly you're a fucking moron if you vote for a candidate because they're black or a woman and that's your only reason. But that's the only justification blacks had for Obama and woman have for Hillary. Oh and Obama promised and rewarded those blacks with food stamps and welfare, effectively keeping them in poverty.

Silver is wrong this time because Trump is not your traditional candidate. His own party leaders hate him and had to get a Goldman Sachs goon to run against him just to displace votes. They did everything to stop his nomination and he spent a record low during the primary's yet still came out with a record number of votes. He literally has everything going against him and has more hate from every side and media outlet than ever before, more than any cadidate in the history of politics, and he is still dead even with Hillary in polls where they don't poll 600 more democrats than Republicans, if not winning those polls.

Also, during the Primary's, Silver was predicting every week that Donald Trump would not win and would fizzle out that week. Yet he savaged through the Primary's with record numbers. Silver even wrote a shitty article after admitting it. And he'll write another one when Trump wins. Trump is a strong candidate and the fact of the matter is if he wasn't the MSM like Silver wouldn't have to bash him and take his quotes out of context and spin the truth and spread lies with an article every other day.

>easy to predict

Not months ahead of time, and not down to every single state. If so, why was he the only one to do so?

Only... so you are a Sith then...

Because he was completely wrong about the Republican Primary and got nearly half of the fucking Democratic Primary wrong as well.

You don't know probability. His volatility is 538, which means you can't predict anything from his results.

There is nothing magical in what he is doing. Humankind had knowledge of this shit 100s of years ago.

You can believe whatever you want, what you believe has no impact on my life or actual real world events.

He also got the primary 100% wrong but we wont count that

ironic :^)
>the polls are wrong guiz, except when Trump is ahead.

Never said I was a trump supporter, just that your beliefs are meaningless

The increasingly nervous man himself.

lmao TWO pro clinton polls in georgia?

at this point clinton could basically murder trayvon martin's twin sister and she'd still win

this is how much people hate trump

...

nope, that was a clear fuck-up on his part. he stopped listening to the numbers and started listening to the pundits.

no idea what this means, but nate's income hinges on him making correct calls, so he'll damn well try making correct calls

>aren't definitive statements
He was still wrong in all of those.

Nate Polonium is a bought shill for this election. His audience is too large for there not to be some Jewish mathematics going on in his 2016 predictions.

>Jewish mathematics
You mean like game theory (Von Neumann), diffusion processes (Weiner), Von Neumann machines (Von Neumann), Markov Chain Monte Carlo (Ulam) ..?

Yeah, probably.

so edgy

>Georgia
>Being even remotely blue

Nigger pls.

92 we went blue because of Bush, not clinton.

Trust me, faggets, its red as fuck here. Even inside the perimeter (AKA faggot-nigger central) I've seen dozens of Trump signs and not one
>NOT ONE
Hillary sign.

GA is Trump territory. You can count on it.

I don't understand nate silver.
For years he has been saying they constantly criticized their data and look for better methods. Then during the Republican primary he says he was biased and not taking data into account that contradicted his bias.

Trump supporters not believing in polls are like the Romney people not believing in polls in 2012

voting should be popular vote only and you should have to pass an iq test, and be 25

How about you smoke my poll?

Why should I trust a man that has been wrong in LITERALLY every prediction he's made this election?

If anyone normal person was that wrong, they'd be mocked/hated and fired from their job already.

>disregarding the huge surge in Hispanic voters in Georgia over the last few years
>disregarding the giant numbers Johnson is pulling in Georgia relative to national averages right now

I think Georgia's gonna go Red this year, no doubt. But I think it's going to be by a razor-thin margin, like North Carolina in 2012.

How about you smoke my billabong mate

Burn. It's ok, when Littlefinger gets BTFO in Nov, I'm sure you will find solace in that sick burn you one time made.

You expect us to believe he's on some sort of massive decline (the lowest since October of last year), yet he's still pulling in an average of 15,000 (a lot of times much more) rally attendees, while hillary is averaging in the 100s? Fucking really? You don't think the MSM is fucking with polls at all?

I've seen Hillary signs. But I live in Druid Hills, so I expect to be surrounded by fags.

Still, people here are apathetic about Trump. A lot of my Republican friends don't want to vote for him. It's possible that they'll change their minds on election day, but I wouldn't bet my life savings on Georgia staying red.

If rally sizes were indicators of future election success, Bernie would be the nominee. But go ahead and keep not believing in polls just like Repubs did in 2012, I'm sure that shit will help you.

? Bernie didn't surpass trump in rally sizes bruh. Sorry to disappoint you.

He was litterally creating a safe space for his voter base.

All Hillary needs to do is shutup and shell win this election.

#LetTrumpTalk

Spread that hashtag to those who wanna see Trump lose.

You say all of that as if I don't know what all of that is or who von Neumann is. You're focusing on the wrong part. The point is that Nate Scandium doesn't need to necessarily be right about an election ever again. He has a monolithic website and brand and dozens of journalist and statistics types working for him. More importantly, he could take money to publish articles with a consistent bias, and he understands the psychological impact his website has on the voting public. It won't destroy his brand if he's wrong at this point. All the more reason to game theory the American public to influence the vote (this is the difference between knowing math buzzwords and knowing how to apply them).

>He constantly shifts his predictions every fucking day,

They're not "predictions" like a fucking soothsayer, fuck. Why is everyone on Sup Forums so fucking retarded? Basic statistics. He gets more information, and thus the odds improve or decline. Voters aren't static. They shift based on events. So how can he possibly make one "prediction" 10 months in advance and be right all the way to election day? He can't, that's not how predictions or statistics work.

>being this retarded in 2016

>You say all of that as if I don't know what all of that is or who von Neumann is. You're focusing on the wrong part. The point is that Nate Scandium doesn't need to necessarily be right about an election ever again. He has a monolithic website and brand and dozens of journalist and statistics types working for him. More importantly, he could take money to publish articles with a consistent bias, and he understands the psychological impact his website has on the voting public. It won't destroy his brand if he's wrong at this point. All the more reason to game theory the American public to influence the vote (this is the difference between knowing math buzzwords and knowing how to apply them).
If he gets this election outrageously wrong (predicting a solid clinton win when the reality is a clear Trump win), nobody will ever listen to his political predictions ever again. I Know I won't.

I know YOU look to what gives you psychological comfort. I just want a solid statistical model aggregating all polls to tell me the truth.

People binarize. They don't get "79.4% chance of Clinton", they think "I TELL YOU SCIENCE HAS PROVED CLINTON WILL BE PRESIDENT". And when they hear that person say "51% chance of Trump winning the next day, they parse that as "I TELL YOU SCEINCE HAS PROVED TRUMP WILL BE PRESIDENT" and their head explodes.

Trump probably is doing even worse, since Silver doesn't factor in ground game (where Trump is doing worse than Clinton).

In fact, Silver's predictions were more pro-GOP than reality in both 2008 and 2012.

He had ore than Hillary and she still won

The existence of Nate's website creates a feedback loop which in turn influences everything. Especially given his broad audience these days. You are a fool if you think the financial powers that be, who nearly universally hate Trump, aren't taking advantage of this information source used by millions by gaming and biasing everything Nate will let them get away with, or just biasing more of the polls at the source.

Current year!

>current year!

That's a completely different claim.