So Sup Forums, specifically americunts, give it to me straight...
What are his actual chances of winning? I tried google, but the bias in the articles was quite obvious, and more neutral ones were using figures from the biased articles.
Come on America, we managed to vote for Brexit, now you've got to make the right hing happen too.
Bump
Still strangely high. A large portion of the country will vote Republican no matter what happens, and the Democratic voters are the most likely to stay home if they are unhappy with their candidate or if they thing there is a landslide that doesn't need them. Also, his poll numbers have been creeping back up in the last couple of days.
With the unlikeability of candidates on both sides, I'd say it's a 50/50 shot.
trump has an 11.1% chance of winning
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
See the breakdown of the results below
The people who support trump were/are already wary of the mainstream media. whatever smear campaigns the MSM tries against trump wont sway them.
so thats his base. and its pretty big.
the issue is middle-of-the-road voters. i have no idea who they will choose. hillary has plenty of garbage on her as well.
that being said, more republicans have abandoned trump than democrats have abandoned hillary. i would think the advantage is hillary, at this point.
More like 100% if Assange stops fucking around. Get your shit together!
I'd say 87-99%.
Consider 2012:
1. nearly impossible to beat a president running for reelection
2. GOP candidate was not a "normal" Christian by even the farthest reach of the imagination
3. GOP candidate made no nationalistic or demographic outreaches to the base
4. GOP candidate had ZERO charisma
5. GOP candidate had ZERO positive features other than "I liked Obamacare before it was cool"
6. GOP candidate gave ZERO effort, gave up 2 months early
7. GOP candidate had no amount of comparable popularity
8. Dem candidate was THE liberal saviour, the perfect liberal candidate of all time
9. HE STILL ONLY LOST BY 2%
The parralels are between Romney and HRC, and Romney is working for HRC, vs Obama and Trump.
Also consider Dubya vs Kerry for a better analog.
So just ask yourself:
1. Is it reasonable to assume HRC is at least 2% less charismatic and well liked and exciting to dems than Obama was?
2. Is it reasonable to assume that Trump has at least 2% more devoted fans than Romney did?
If either answer is true, then you know who the next president will be.
If you honestly believe HRC has a bigger fandom than Obama and Trump has a smaller fandom than Romney, then its reasonable to assume Trump will lose.
A lot can change in 3 months. Let's hope that number increases.
>that being said, more republicans have abandoned trump than democrats have abandoned hillary.
to be fair its not clear that that's a minus
The more he talks, the more he shows how stupid he is.
Hillary is going to win
I also really want to know, but it seems impossible with all the bias in the media. My local media is flooded with anti-trump articles and pro hillary ones.
It's impossible to trust polls performed by the biased media as they don't release their polling information.
Fivethirtyeight has been so wrong about trump this entire election it's not worth even considering.
Trumps rallies are absolutely packed whereas hillary seems to struggle to pull a crowd together.
The fuck is going on over there?
Media rigging to make Hillary seem like she is the solid candidate and Trump only has a small string of fringe racists.
>Trumps rallies are absolutely packed whereas hillary seems to struggle to pull a crowd together.
This is what gets me most. Photos have been taken at specifically chosen angles to make it look like she pulls bigger crowds than she does. Between that, and media lies, it's hard to judge her actual popularity. Fuck, Bernie got bigger crowds than her, yet somehow she still got nominated.
ah but anyone who abandoned GOP because trump said mean things LOGICALLY they would defer from voting for Clinton because of far worse reasons.
Trump - Sensitive voters
Hillary - Bernouts (Who may have won the nom. if it wasn't rigged)
Oops wrong reply.
in terms of votes its not a minus? explain pls
>chances of winning
>0%
You didn't hear? He doesn't actually want to be president. He was just being sarcastic.
100%, he already won we're just going through the motions
>If either answer is true, then you know who the next president will be.
which candidate is more closely related to the Queen?
Trump has a high IQ-True as far as we know
Global warming created by and for Chinese- Debatable. It does have a big effect on limiting US manufacturing whereas China doesn't have those limitations. The cause is debatable. The effect is not.
Ariannahuff is ugly inside and out-True.
A credible source called Trump and told him birth cert is a fraud- Can't confirm is that source did call. Irrelevant since Trump isn't making the claim, a "credible source" is, he's just reporting what he was told.
If you think any of these "points" make Trump out to be worse than Hillary, then you simply don't know Hillary's history. When Trump has been the cause for things like people getting killed, and rapists being let free like Hillary has, then you can have an argument.
Ever wonder why the shilling has gotten so bad?
Ever think "man, this is pretty professional for cross-board shitters"? Maybe that's because it's professional shilling.
quickleak.se
Thank you for correcting the record!
a handful of establishment fuckwads don't matter in the big numbers game, if you sacrifice 5% of the total to gain like 10 million vote you're 100% winning
a lot of semi-high profile republicans have come out in support of hillary.
this is not good if you support trump. its just not.
Its literally 50/50.
If it was a fair fight with none of the MSM Bullshit Trump would win in a landslide, but as it stands the cards are so heavily stacked against him.
This is the fight for Human rites as we know it.
Good vs Evil,
People don't even fucking realize how fucking serious this shit is.
>bush-era neocons support hillary
Ever wonder why the shilling has gotten so bad? Ever think "man, this is pretty professional for cross-board shitters"? Maybe that's because it's professional shilling.
quickleak.se
Thank you for correcting the record!
...
100%
Working class white Democrats are going to hand Trump the Rust Belt and the presidency. The Dem leadership is shitting itself because Trump's populism has taken away their rank-and-file members.
It is though. It shows who the faggots in the party are
And according to that website, he had a 2% chance of winning the primary.
Stop relying on proven losers for your analysis.
I don't see that as a bad thing to be honest. If Trump wins the election they will be ridiculed from the political scene for a long time as traitor neo-cons. It actually helps trumps anti-establishment message by having these people join Hillary. The number of people who are going to be voting Hillary now because these people will be is extremely low.
>I tried Google
The issue is that Google have been caught on numerous occasions leaning a not-so-subtle bias toward Clinton (i.e., removing Trump from the 'Presidential Candidates' search results, having Hillary's logo front and center when searching 'Who will win the November elections?', etc. etc.), although the moment Google was caught doing this brainwashing 'She's going to win no matter what!' bullshit they fixed it immediately thereafter.
The other issue is the polls. Pretty much any poll you can search up for Google oversamples Democrats by ungodly percentages, so Hillary wins in almost every single poll.
Unfortunately for Hillary, those of us who aren't retarded have seen the pictures of her rallies, where she struggles to fill a quarter of a room with her supporters, and the DNC, where they literally kicked out everyone against Hillary and replaced them with paid shills. Yes, they were caught doing this.
So, what are Trump's actual chances of winning?
0%
>"But user," you say, taken aback. "Why 0%?"
The Democrats have a long, sordid history of voter fraud, including, but not limited to, submitting votes for their candidate(s) from people who were recently deceased, submitting votes for their candidate(s) from people who have been deceased for years, and voter suppression. These are all things they've been caught doing before, but funny thing, rarely, if ever, is legal action taken.
So to answer your question more simply:
Trump doesn't stand a chance against the corrupt fraud machine that is the Democratic Party.
pretty low IMO. hopefully clinton will have a major seizure in the middle of one of the televised debates or something
Weak-ass concern trolling.
Everyone hates these fucking retards. Trump won because he spat in the faces of these RINO, neoconservative fucks.
Clinton getting endorsed by the staff of a universally hated president isn't a plus for her. Same goes for hedge fund managers.
Depends on the debates mostly. By default Hillary will be the winner, but if she fucks up in the debates she loses. She's being handed this election on a silver platter, if she somehow manages to lose despite that, many keks will be had.
I would give you a rough percentage chance, but that won't work since the future is as unpredictable as usual. I'll just say that Hillary is the favorite to win and will remain so unless she fucks up. Republicans are disadvantaged by the electoral college in any election here by default.
>the issue is middle-of-the-road voters. i have no idea who they will choose.
Probably a pretty even split, then the remainder go third party or stay home. Most "independents" aren't really moderates to be swayed but people who lean one way or another and just identify as independents.
No chance.
System is hugely rigged in favor of democrats (seriously check out our retarded Electoral College system, you'll get a laugh out of it) and Clinton is unafraid to cheat and bribe.
>
This is the only way that he'll get a head in the polls
depends how hard hillary cheats. if she played fair she would have gone to jail already for the email scandal
also hardly anyone aged 18-24 even voted remain in the brexit vote
if likes on goybook won elections the GOP would be finished forever
>A majority of 270 electoral votes is required to elect the President.
>You help choose your state’s electors when you vote for President because when you vote for your candidate you are actually voting for your candidate’s electors.
>Most states have a “winner-take-all” system that awards all electors to the winning presidential candidate. However, Maine and Nebraska each have a variation of “proportional representation.”
So... what? What the fuck? I know we don't exactly have "Vote for Prime Minister" here in the UK, but it makes more sense than this nonsense.
Trump is going to win in a landslide
Everything Christopher Hitchens ever said about Hillary Clinton
>So... what? What the fuck? I know we don't exactly have "Vote for Prime Minister" here in the UK, but it makes more sense than this nonsense.
It works as if each state was a constituency, and each constituency had a different weight depending on the population.
It's also not good for the democratic and republican parties because it reveals how fucking corrupt and like minded they really are. Trump's opinions are in line with how white republicans feel, so when half the party is endorsing the other side you know its time for a purge.
So, why have the electoral college at all? They should just use that system, then go "Hey, because [candidate] won these states with this population, they are now President"