How the fuck is this guy behind in the polls?

how the fuck is this guy behind in the polls?

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Because they didn't poll any of those people.

Bernie did the same and he didn't even win the nomination.

I remember looking at the brexit polls and everyone was like
>UK BTFO
>UK WILL NEVER BE ABLE TO LEAVE LMAO

the polls are wrong and misleading the majority of the time.

>he thinks the popular vote matters

>What is a margin of error

The polls still tricked some of Sup Forums into abandoning Brexit first thing in the morning of voting.

>oh well guys we tried.

That's why they do it, to demoralize people and they will continue to do it because people are weak

because Shillary owned the DNC and Hernie was snuffed

Why the fuck are you retards still caring about the polls??? Are you shilling, or just stupid?

Shit thread by the way. Not enough content. Stop shilling up the board.

Because 20K ppl in an arena is nothing compared to the millions of ppl who hate his fucking guts

>some polls had it 60 stay 40 leave
>margin of error 3-5% percent

Nice try jidf

>ppl

You're not on Twatter, you dumb nigger, write like an actual human being.

Bernie attracted millennials who are too lazy to go out and vote.

Trump attracts adults who always go out and vote.

Some did, but most leading up to it were within the MoE.

More people download and pirate movies and music than go to their concerts/theatres.

More people vote Clinton than will ever go to her rallies.

Polls were outside of margin of error actually.

Yeah that might be valid if it wasn't every arena every day sometimes twice a day.

The polls sample way more democrats than they do republicans and they took out an age group and kicked out independent voters easily. Its a way to demoralize the opposition, make you think you wont win and possibly discourage you from voting.

it wont work though, any and every republican knows how damaging a Clinton presidency would be. They wont miss voting for the world.

You're not even taking into account the media is deliberately skewing results ahead of time

>likely voters

oh people that voted for Obama in 2008 and 2014 is that what you mean? and republicans who voted for jeb bush in the primaries?

all sorts of ways they can influence the poll to show what they want

Biased media

I was there last night. Best part by far was the 4 protestors.

When i drove by i said out my window "wow, all 4 of you. Nice!!!" and the younger guy looked visibly sad.

...

>"Write like an actual human being"
>doesn't know how to use commas

>a band that can't fill a school auditorium has more music downloads than a band who can fill sports stadiums around America

The same reason these were the Brexit odds.

Oh man, that looks pretty pathetic. I give them props though for doing it.

Does trump even have crowds of protesters like he used to? With bernie gone all those degenerates decided to do something better with their time.

Uh, no.

The few weeks leading up to it as well, many were for Brexit.

A couple were outside of the MoE but most weren't.

>Bernie lost a rigged primary

oh wow, what evidence

They don't stratify by party affiliation.

They call you and the first question is are you republican or democrat or indep?

Then they ask who you are voting for.

No one is identifying as republican right now the same way no one did after george bush ruined the party by 2008.

This 'oversampling' thing means to die. If they stratify at all its by age and location, nothing else

IT'S BECAUSE YOU DIDN'T REMIND THEM

businessinsider.com/obama-admin-admits-to-covertly-sending-heavy-weapons-to-syrian-rebels-2012-12

most people voting Clinton are actually voting against trump.

I'll vote for her and you wouldn't caught me dead on a Clinton rally

that was only in portland you trumps doing it in every state

God's work user.
Should've followed up with "It's not too late to the Great America!"

Because you live in 1984

>What is a margin of error
>over 10% is margin of error

Have you ever been pold?

I know I haven't.

I've never talked to a person that has been.

He's going to win in a landslide.

Probably 80-100 people from south carolina, georgia, and north Carolina come through my place everyday.

I have yet to see one person voting Clinton.

I've seen plenty of people, myself included, who have never voted before but are going to for Trump.

Fuck, I didn't even vote in the primary because I wasn't registered. I am now though, there are more people like this than you think.

gambling odds are just based on getting 50/50 of the money to come down on either side so the company issuing the bets always wins. its not directly reflective of polls or what is most likely to happen

...

You forgot the part where they hang up on you if they can't get the 44% Dem--32% Rep--24% Ind split

This shit is obviously rigged.

>we're in the few weeks leading up to the american election

>doesn't know how to use commas

High-school dropout confirmed.

Cuck

(((Polls)))

The antics he used to stand out and secure the nomination in a field of 17 are wearing thin, and not attracting the varied centrists in the general.

He really needed to use the convention to pivot into a more "presidential" centrist tone, if he had done that I think he would be stomping Clinton right now. Instead he continues the same 5d chess moves charging through landmines and trying to cheekily walk it back or clarify it. It isn't the primaries anymore and the people outside of his camp in the GOP got tired of it quickly.

I still think he can turn it around and win but I don't see any indication he will make that pivot.

I'm sorry for breaking your bubble but..

The polls were completely wrong, by 5 to 6 times the margin of error in some cases.

kek

That WAS proper usage, you retard

Trump's gonna arserape this election.

The polls are bullshit and are contrary to reality.

Have faith in Brexit's success, Ameribros. You will succeed.

...

just like all the polls having romney losing were rigged too right

I will remind them.

Nobody thought Romney was going to win. Nobody was voting for Romney, they were voting against Obama.

Wait a minute... that sounds familiar...

The polls the day before the vote were aggregated at 10% in favour of remain and that was shy answers in polling.

Now restrain your leaf urges, and contemplate how big the shy voter effect is for "spics and muslims out" Trump compared to leaving an undemocratic bureaucratic political union.

I don't even understand what you're trying to say.

I grew up in the US, I know how the electoral college works.

Are you implying he could win the vote in a landslide and not win the election? It would have to be close, which I personally don't believe it will be.

"The polls always lie, never believe them. Mitt Romney will win in a landslide!"

>cherrypicking

What's wrong with his commas? I've never learnt a single punctuation rule in English, but his commas are correct if it was Russian and probably correct in Serbian.
Also picking up on foreigners for not speaking your language flawlessly is just retarded

Why did someone go through all this effort only to use posting styles that were not used until a year ago?

Shill'd

>Are you implying he could win the vote in a landslide and not win the election?

Pretty sure that's what he's implying. It's a mixture of him being a sub-80 IQ Albanian and not reading that same Wikipedia page he's posting from start to finish.

He's alienated independents. I thought that after the primary he'd mature and moderate himself on certain topics, but that's not been the case. He's shown to the entire nation that he's a fucking whackjob and ironically turned Clinton into the "conservative" and "moderate" choice.

The thing is, Trump knows this and he frankly doesn't care. His entire campaign is a publicity stunt - he doesn't care whether he wins or not, he'll go back to "a very good life" either way. So Clinton's going to win because even GEORGIA has become a "swing state".

...

...

>my polls are truth
>yours are cherrypicking

This. The mainstream media favors polling those who will help reinforce their ideals and politics.

Thus, more democrats are polled.

fuck off newfag.

It was just like it is now, tons of threads everyday about how all nate silvers polls with obama winning were rigged.

then silver got 50/50 states correct, mr. "corporations are people my friend" got blown the fuck out and there were no posts on Sup Forums for like 2 weeks after

Nah man, it was just the 4.

What makes it even better though is that they were at a 3 way intersection with literally thousands of cars full of trump supporters passing them by, presumably with a large number talking some form of shit as they drove past them to the entrance. The number of cars there filled the parking lot and we had to park 15 mins walk away in a fucking field.

The absolute cherry on top though was that it was 90degrees with the humidity on par with a 400lb pavement ape's vagina while she watches the postman hand her the monthly gibs check.

>lets go protest at the rally
>only 3 others here
>my feet hurt
>everybody keeps laughing at me
>they are all crazy and I'm the only sane one, right?
>its hot
>that guy called me a faggot
I almost felt bad for that lil cuck.

Bernie was backstabbed. He has more support than Hillary.

>tfw when the fucking Russian has better English than the American twitterfag
I BET THIS IS PUTIN'S FAULT HE'S TRYING TO DISRUPT OUR ELECTIONS LIKE THE CIA HAS BEEN DOING GLOBALLY FOR YEARS REEEEE

you self identify in the poll. its usually the first question they ask

>implying he didn't win

(((polls)))

>then silver got 50/50 states correct

The same Silver that was wrong 100% of the time in 2016? I think he's been rich for too long, all that coke fries your brain.

This, basically.

I used to be able to tell people that Trump was just getting badmouthed by the media but now he doesn't need them to badmouth him anymore and I am back to hiding my power level.

Even 60K is less than millions, friendo

>calling out a foreigner for adding one extra comma to an otherwise flawless sentence that's not in his native language.
Nigger, are you actually retarded?

foad

Remember when clinton won 6 coin tosses in a row?

problem is he tried to become a pundit and make predictions based on psychology and such rather than just trusting the numbers.

His polls only forecast still uses the same methodology and is probably pretty damn accurate. He has hillary at about 80% atm.

so fake

>probably pretty damn accurate

He said it was MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE for Trump to secure the Republican nomination via delegates. He has no credibility in predictions.

>That spike around the time of Joe Cox' murder
That fucking retard who killed her literally almost cost us the vote

>Do-do-do do-do-do do-do-do do-DO Do-do-do do-do-do do-do-do do-DO

49/50 in 2008 and 50/50 in 2012.

his polls only forecast is fine. don't read any of his bullshit articles or analysis.

All those 20 somethings that had their parents pay for the tickets

Silver's argument about Trump was literally "the polls are wrong, don't trust them."

youtube.com/watch?v=6vtsKGzGVK4
lmfao

>problem is he tried to become a pundit and make predictions based on psychology and such rather than just trusting the numbers.

The problem is he's a nerd who can only predict things when they're actually predictable. When you've got two boring, safe, bland robots like Obama and Mittens, it's not that hard to predict.

On the other hand, when you've got a controversial, loud-mouthed TV star in one corner and a psychopathic war criminal in the other, things tend to get a bit messy and hard to predict.

OH SHIT, THAT'S CENTRAL FLORIDA
Where the fuck is that ... looks so familiar, probably Cleremont or that area.

will Shillary own the FEC?

you're right in that this election has been a lot more volatile in terms of public opinion. The polls have swung up and down pretty wildly for the past month now.

I am confident if an election was to be held tomorrow hillary would win.

But trying to project these polls out to november is retarded.

they probably dont start mattering until octoberish

When I was there ther were only 2, what did that guys sign say?

He's not.

He was in Kissimmee last night

Probably posted already...

Because Trump has passionate supporters who are in the minority.

Hillary has the gibs (of both the millennial and "differently complexioned" types), "muh time for Madame president", and "stop trump" demographics. He's done an excellent job of alienating people.

That was in Oregon which Bernie crushed Hillary in, Trump continues to get big numbers in Florida which people and polls still insist Hillary will win.

>how the fuck is this guy behind in the polls?

Simple.

If someone loves Trump, they really really love him. Much more so than any other politician -- that's because trump is a totally unique politician. That explains why his rallies are so huge -- it shows that extremely high intensity of love by those who love him.

The problem is that those Americans are in the minority. Trump's national ceiling looks like it's about 45%. A bunch of people in that 45% love him like crazy, but the problem is that a 45% total isn't enough. Hillary's national ceiling is about 50%.

It's really pretty simple and understandable. Trump and Hillary are asymmetric: Trump lovers are more passionate, hence his rallies are bigger. But more people in total support Hillary. Hillary supporters are less enthusiastic, hence her rallies are smaller.

It's not a paradox. It's just that two separate things are in play simultaneously: passion versus raw numbers.

I've always been puzzled at why so many people don't quite get this. Maybe it needs charts and graphs to explain it?

>how the fuck is this guy behind in the polls?

It seems that shortly after he clinched the Republican nomination, his 'gaffes' have become much much worse from a Republican standpoint.

The stuff that was deemed 'outrageous' used to be just mostly outrageous to Democrats. Some racism, some bullying, kind of run of the mill Fox News-level stuff, basically. But after the nomination he almost immediately went after military folk, parents of a dead soldier, even. If you're trying to appeal to Republicans (and Americans in general), that is pretty much the worst thing to do.

The three theories I actually deem plausible (I'm afraid to admit it, but it's true):
1. Trump doesn't want to win the election for some unknown reason: wouldn't like the (pressure of the) job, thinks the White House is a shitty place to live, etc.
2. Trump is still a Democrat, Clinton asked him whether he'd want to help blow up the GOP and gain lots of media attention in the process, and so they proceeded.
3. Trump is just a total narcissistic fuckwit who has no idea what he's doing and thinks that his stream-of-consciousness primary success somehow translates into "All people love me and how I act"

I deem the latter the most probable.