Electoral College Prediction Thread

Nate Silver just released his own projections roday, post yours!

Other urls found in this thread:

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/#now
youtube.com/watch?v=OqbDBRWb63s
youtube.com/watch?v=FmIRYvJQeHM
youtube.com/watch?v=O894bXmqqGU
youtube.com/watch?v=xvhBoF_pCHo
fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/
twitter.com/NSFWRedditGif

*today whoops

Even though Trump is going to obviously lose this election, I'm going to go ahead and call you a shill anyway because the thought of accepting reality makes me uncomfortable.

Fucking kike.

Sup Forums incarnate

They're hypothetical scenarios, not predictions. The first one is likely though.

>Nate Silver

No shitposting in my thread plz

Faggot

Scenarios 2 and 3 ain't happening, 1 looks realistic though.

A loss is a loss though.

Scenario 3 will happen if Gary Johnson gets 16% of the national vote.

>mexican intellectuals

Wow a nu-male kike map. This isn't going to be a landslide for either one of them.
Red FL NC OH
Blue NV CO MI NH
Now PA, there is a toss up.
>GA blue
Trash.

Nate Silver is so desperate for Hillary.

>Now PA, there is a toss up.

only one poll this year had trump beating clinton and that was months ago.

Most counties aren't that far in the blue, barring Philly. RCP polls for NH MI and VA are about the same as PA, so with some anons saying NH is in play I don't see why PA can't be.
Plus, look at the rallies.

Everyone knows polls are meant to influence public sentiment, not measure it. The numbers are whole cloth fabrications

Thank you for correcting the record!

First map - Georgia, Florida, NC, Virginia, PA, OH, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Nevada, AZ, NH even NY/NJ Blue, into the trash.
Last map - Montana and Dakota blue - pure liberal fantasy, in fact they shouldn't even want that as the conservatives with guns would go on a lynching/capital burning spree.

My recorder has been corrected!

Michigan will go red, you can count on it. Niggers won't get out to vote for an old white woman. I don't think I've even seen a Hillary sign yet in Michigan

Ultra-high-level insider here. PA is turning red this year. Screencap this post, I'm not asking.

...

What parts? It all comes down to Detroit and it's suburbs, plus Flint and Lansing. Though Flint is full of niggers with their poo poo water.

Obama couldn't win southern states and Hillary is suppose to get more niggers to vote for her? Also people voted Obama cause he was going to end all the middle east wars. People don't care about paying to construct 10 different types of tranny bathrooms over a border wall or fixing bridges and potholes.

>delusion
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/#now

Honestly this is mine.

You already care of that with the OP, fag

Michigan is 80% white why arent you fuckers red?

are you idiots fucking delusional?
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/#now

>thinking trump will win
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/#now

Ok then, Scooby Doo.

literally nothing to do with this thread

Anyone who thinks arizona will not vote red is flat out retarded. Massachusetts has a better chance of going red than AZ has of going blue.

First off
>Nate Silver

Second
>SC going blue
I live in SC. My job takes me all over the state. Besides the one near the polling stations during the primaries, I have never...NEVER seen a Hillary sign. I've seen 3 or 4 Bernie signs (not including the ones near polling stations near primaries). I've seen a TON of Trump signs. And there's only more popping up. Any poll that ever tells you that SC is going blue is absolutely, 100% full of fucking shit.

~350k voted in the Democratic primaries
~735k voted in the Republican primaries

Even if some of those are NeverTrump retards, Trump still has a well of ~500k voters that voted for other R candidates to pull from.

In 2007 I drove all through Texas, and all I saw were Ron Paul signs. Everywhere. Yet he got 5% there.

In other words, if Trump doesn't have a master plan for getting around the problem of rigged electronic voting machines, then it's already over

Wow, thanks for correcting the record friends!

shouldn't gary johnson win NM?

Notice how Nate is smarter than most of Sup Forums and doesn't put Nevada as red.

They hate him there. All the mexicans won't vote for him and the old white men/women think he's a fairy.

I don't have faith in the polls.
I found this at a convience store in Florida yesterday. Even though my area is supposedly going democrat, this really makes me think.

>"MUH NATE SILVER KIKE"
>predicted 59 out of 60 states in the last election
>his entire job and reputation depends on his ability to make unbiased and accurate predictions
>.............
>"HURR FUCKING JEW FAGGOT"

never change Sup Forums

>third party candidate
>winning anything but 1% of the vote
Not in your lifetime.

>been wrong about Trump every step of the way
>Suddenly he's correct

Someone already posted the image in the thread too

Could Nate Silver be any more wrong than this year??? Career ending

Nothing to do with the polling.

youtube.com/watch?v=OqbDBRWb63s - The Truth About Hillary Clinton's Mental Illness

youtube.com/watch?v=FmIRYvJQeHM - "We came, we saw, he died! LAUGHS" (Gaddafi)

youtube.com/watch?v=O894bXmqqGU - Did Hillary Clinton really say she wants war with Iran

youtube.com/watch?v=xvhBoF_pCHo - Hillary laughs maniacally about war with Iran

>unbiased
Wow that's funny I almost peed myself and I have to go pretty bad.

SC here too, what parts do you drive through specifically? I want to agree with you, but there are for sure some new factors to consider.

1. The black belt: Lots of niggers out in some of those backwater counties, plus the ghettos of Columbia and North Charleston. Guaranteed anti-Trump.
2. Urban centers: Lots of new people that have flooded into Columbia, Charleston and Greenville since 2012, bringing with them their liberal or moderate views. Guaranteed anti-Trump.
3. Young people: going along with #2, millennials are guaranteed pro-Hillary.
4. The "Shy Democrat" effect: There's a reason you don't see Hillary signs; people don't want to be lynched by their neighbors. There's a stratum of generational Republican base voters that have been turned off by Trump and will never say so in public or in polls until Election Day.

Nothing is a guarantee in 2016, including SC going red.

Geez, do you suppose they're all in the same office or is it more of a group chat? Fucking twats

Arizona's blue? now thats just fuckin delusional

ya, that last one was a HARD one to predict *rolls eyes*. I did better than even he did.

>>been wrong about Trump every step of the way

he reverted back to his old way of predictions, after trying (and failing) a new way of doing the predictions by taking into account "educated guesses"

fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/

literally no way trump can win.

this tbqh drumpf is done

>Nate Scrapmetal still thinks he's relevant

/thread

You must be butthurt about Trump or something, i drive ALL OVER S.C, from Columbia to Bluffton, from Greeneville to Abbeville and everywhere in between. THERE IS NO SUPPORT FOR ANY DEMOCRAT, it's been all Trump all day everyday.

Most of those red counties have no one living in them. I spent about 10 years in one of those counties and it's all mountains and forests. A couple of precincts in one of the dark blue counties completely negates several of the dark reds.

>implying desolate shitholes like greenville or Colombia are relevant enough to attract blue voters
Kek. Ive lived in a real blue city trust me sc is as red as it gets

Twitter =/= 538

>people don't want to be lynched by their neighbors.
That's why we're not seeing Trump signs absolutely everywhere.

But then again, cat ladies with neon hair don't even know how to play cards but they sure know how to vote.

lolno, he blew up his reputation during the primaries trying to play pundit instead of sticking to the polls that had Trump winning almost from the start (sans a few hiccups with Carson and Cruz).

Regardless of who I'd vote for, the Trump cards have more comedic value and I'd buy those over Hillary ones.

...

>How I am a complete and utter biased idiot and why you should still listen to my bullshit.

Going to laugh my ass off when they find him hanging from his ceiling fan on November 9th due to the anal devastation and embarrassment of Trump making him look like a dribbling idiot the whole way through.

>Most of those red counties have no one living in them.

LALALALLA I CAN'T HEAR YOU

Nah, not butthurt, I'm somewhat indifferent about it all. What I'm saying is yard signs aren't a good indicator.

Trump signs are all over the place out in novelty name places like Possum Kingdom (just drove through there yesterday) where people feel they're in good company. In contrast, there are few places in the state where Hillary supporters feel at ease to express their support, but that doesn't mean it's not there.

>Nate Silver

(((Nate Silver)))

(((Silver)))


massive jew.

>this is what the electoral map could look like...
>if democrats and republicans were equally likely to vote
>and if historically skewed poll data was exactly right this time
>and the groups removed from the methodology weren't allowed to vote
>and you could only vote if you had a landline and time to take a survey
>and voting was a complicated, obtuse question instead of a single variable
>and we held the election a few weeks ago before any debates or big news or "October surprise"
>and we assumed that the current political, social, and economic climate is exactly how it was in 2012, 2008, 2004, and 2000.

>Arizona
>Georgia
>Texas
>blue
Discarded.

Tons of hillcucks on my facebook. Dont know what youre talking about shes the ultimate PC candidate

Union workers.

Hillary is afflicted with a serious neurological disorder that is progressive, degenerative, and completely invalidates her candidacy for presidency. Many media people know it as do most authorities. She has signs of seizure disorder and probably early parkinsons dis too. The propositions about her diagnosis is not a hoax. The hoax is that she's well. She is not well. Medical records will show that a brain condition is present. But the media is giving her a pass. Both candidates need to release medical records and I mean all of it and the full thing. The job is just too important to skip that. The stakes are too high otherwise. BTW the syringe in the large black man's hand was diazapam (not an epipen). The black man is a medical person who is handling her. If the media got on top of this and dug deep then all would be revealed and confirmed. Remember, you read it here first. That may be what the October surprise concerns. We'll know in 8 weeks.

Trump is 70 years old user.

what is this fucking meme that Georgia will go blue
seriously
it didn't even go blue for fucking Obama, why the FUCK would it go blue for Hillary?

>what is this fucking meme that Georgia will go blue

Because the polling shows it.

Trump is healthy and without a brain disorder. Shillary has a brain disorder.

>1% chance of winning the nomination
oops

my prediction

>half of those articles are him warning how trump is going to poll poorly on a general election platform

Maybe not so wrong after all?

oh i'm fucking sure it does, just like it did in 2008 and 2012, i'm fucking sure it will.
If they didn't vote for Obama they won't vote Hillary, don't be a fucking retard.

All those niggers in Atlanta REALLY want to get a piece of that Hillary pussy.

>oh i'm fucking sure it does, just like it did in 2008 and 2012,

It didn't show Georgia in play in 2008 or 2012 user.

monopolists propaganda that is numerically wrong.

Prediction: Trump wins with 293.

hue

>ITT: people who were not here in 2012 when we got BTFO by Nate Silver's projection that Obama would win.

He can't win forever, he's gonna be wrong one of these days.

You say that, but he was so ill he was designated 4F during the draft, IE medically disabled.

He eats fast food every day.

Also, neither epilepsy nor Parkinson's disease, if Clinton actually had them, affect someone's ability to be president in any way. They both only affect motor function, not cognition. We already had a crippled president.

>He can't win forever, he's gonna be wrong one of these days.

Well, if he gives Clinton a 90% chance of victory, he's going to be wrong exactly 10% of the time.

So Trump can win the popular vote and still lose the election? This is almost rigged.

Nice democracy you have there America.

Mass cuckoldry.

I'm a native of upstate SC. My Dad and I would never go blue, but his father in Greenville is a die hard democrat, and even though he's a bit racist, I heard him saying "We need change" back in 08. But he never has signs or anything.

i love how wrong this kike has been this entire election cycle

bait silver is just another kike propagandist

it's happend a few times before

Whites are a minority in every one of those states this election.

friendly reminder that nate hydrogen projected trumps chance at winning the republican primary at 4%.

>Silver

He thinks he can predict this election now?

>He thinks he can predict this election now?

He's done it before user :)

Yes, in like, November of last year. Which was probably true at the time. As the primary went on, the percent chance he gave Trump went higher and higher, until it was nearly 100%.

>Inb4 that meme picture with cherry picked headlines.
Read the articles.

Once again, quite literally nothing to do with this.

Nate published op-eds about Trump. This is polling data.