Will he have a turnaround like Reagan who was down 6 points in October of 1980? When will it happen? Right now...

Will he have a turnaround like Reagan who was down 6 points in October of 1980? When will it happen? Right now, Shillary has enough points to win

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>points

Odds calculations based on Nate Silvers estimates on his Polls-Plus forecast.

Pro-Tip:
2 : 1 or less is a safe bet
3 : 1 is the limit of what is decent shot.
4 : 1 is a long-shot
(anything more aint gonna happen)


Pic related is Trumps best case scenario.

and this is his worst case assuming he loses on anything 2 : 1 or worse.

That map is his only path to victory at the moment. Unless the polls change and he can pick up PA, this is the way to go

yep.

Technically a long-shot but still possible to swing PA, MN or CO. (the latter 2 have many independents that would leave Hillary for Stein.) Hillary would have to fuck something up for a 4 : 1 to happen.

He if loses either OH or FL. Its Ogre

or a major leak happens and hillary has to step down from the race.

>2 electoral vote difference

I'm ready for the liberal assblasting that will result.

There would have to be a MAJOR leak actually incriminating Hillary. Let's be totally honest with ourselves. The wikileaks are total garbage and everyone has caught on. The more they leak, the less shocking it is. There has to be a huge story for there to be a turn around.

Maybe if BLM continues burning down cities there will be a shift for Trump.

It will be the greatest of all time
He will never win MN. CO will be very difficult to get unless a serious campaign issue comes up. PA can be moved because he was leading in the polls there in the past.

if there's another major radical islamic terrorist attack near election day trump will win for sure

NC IS FUCKING RED GTFO

Oh yes there is no denying that.

Trump has it in the bag

Trump has to make himself electable. Right now he comes across as a nutcase.

It will be red in November, but it isn't right now in the polls.
If this happens, it will give him a huge boost. That, plus the debates will also boost him. That's why I haven't given up hope yet

Fox News: State Dept. May Have Engaged in Favoritism for Clinton Foundation Donor

youtube.com/watch?v=Ttb7U32nhU0

Latino students booted from online support groups for expressing conservative views

thecollegefix.com/post/28499/

He'll get all the grey states and New Hampshire.

What traditionally Blue state is he flipping this election?

He won't. But if any? Oregon or Connecticut

It depends what Trump debates about. If he grills her on her scandals, he would just lose. Nobody knows more about that issue than Hillary herself. She survived the republican house grilling her on the subject.

Oregon? Over Michigan? What?

This is all pre-gaming, this election season is basically going to run from late September through October. I would expect we'll see a bunch of damning Hillary leaks combined with a Trump ad surge which should bring things about even. Hillary will also perform poorly or outright skip the debates.

It's actually a good year for a third candidate to win a state or two, seeing how wildly unpopular both literally Sup Forums and literally tumblr are among normies.

I have a serious question.

How are voters still not sure who they're voting for? What goes on inside their brains that makes them go "huh, guess I'm voting for x now" and go through the effort of actually voting?

What causes them to change their minds like gophers?

No, because the electorate is much more polarized than it was in 1980, which means that there are fewer independent votes, which means that it's harder for candidates to radically change their support levels. Romney had the same problem; he ran a fine campaign, but Obama just sat on his natural advantage, let the up and down swings cancel out, ran a good GOTV effort, and won it.

The good news is this means Trump won't have a Mondale-level blowout either, but the bad news is he won't win.

Viral marketing and peer pressure. People in the middle don't keep up with politics. They just go for whichever side is trending or popular to like at work. There's also single issue voters. Like the minute Trump softens on abortion, he loses votes. But you have to keep in mind the issue with a lot of those types isn't switching sides spontaneously in November, it's them just not going to vote.

I don't know user, I studied political science in school, I've volunteered and worked for campaigns, and I just don't fucking know. It's not a matter of stupidity either, I've met some people who are brilliant in other aspects of their lives but when it comes to voting they treat it almost like ordering dinner
>oh, I heard the salad is good, I'll have that.
>oh, I heard Candidate X is pretty good, I'll have that.

He's worst case is that Hillary pulls an Obama 2008, minus Indiana. While I doubt that would happens, it's very likely as of right now that she's going to win every swing state.

>Romney had a fine campaign
AHAHAHAHA

Reagan was up 30 points at this moment

Michigan is regarded as a swing state in most elections, so I wasn't considering it traditionally democratic. If you think it's democratic, then it would be Michigan or PA

Hey faggot guess what? Its not election day.

>The good news is this means Trump won't have a Mondale-level blowout either, but the bad news is he won't win.

Most Republican primary votes ever + no Black candidate for Dems = a decent chance.

But yes, if a balance proportion of people vote, which is how Democracy ought to be, then Trump has no chance.

He was down 6 against Carter in October 1980

>there are liberals who vote Republican
>there are conservatives, who vote Democrats
who the fuck are these people?

>we'll see a bunch of damning Hillary leaks

...more damning than the ones we already have?

>which means that there are fewer independent votes.

it means the opposite. The polarization is straining the current party coalitions.

3rd parties are polling higher in this election than 2008 or 2012.

This will keep pushing independents right.

This would be bad for Dems, that and a possible housing crunch in October.