This is your daily reminder that it's extremely unlikely that Trump will become president

This is your daily reminder that it's extremely unlikely that Trump will become president.

Other urls found in this thread:

youtube.com/watch?v=IF_qd78hYXY&ab_channel=BourgondAries
politico.com/story/2016/08/democrats-cyberhack-russia-lies-227080
youtube.com/watch?v=wRSg44gm2Xg
theamericanmirror.com/rich-hillary-flies-20-miles-private-jet-marthas-vineyard-nantucket/
twitter.com/NSFWRedditGif

Wow, Trumpkoeks onder zelfmoordtoezicht.

>Trumpkoeks
?

> Nate Silver
?

Except he's gotten everything right so far, save for an early prediction about the nomination.

Until Wikileaks releases it's stuff, and the leaks are either confirmed as fucking nothing or actually something, the odds are wrong.

youtube.com/watch?v=IF_qd78hYXY&ab_channel=BourgondAries

It's not that the odds are wrong, but they can change of course. Unless it's something huge (and not some documented bickering within the Dem party like last time) the release won't change much. If they actually had something than we'd see all kinds of preemptive damage control from the Dem camp. But we don't. So I don't think there's gonna be much to it.

>denial intensifies

HAHAH I LOVE THAT

That was last election. He got the primaries spectacularly wrong.

>he got everything right but the result
Kek

Hence the cautionary
> save for an early prediction about the nomination

The closer Trump got to actually getting the nomination, the more Silver's forecast pointed in that direction. That being said, early on in the primaries he was quite far off, that's true. It was due to a multitude of factors, one of which was that his Bayesian prior (an informed guess, not supported by any data) was inappropriate.

The presidential election itself is easier to predict, however, because priors can be estimated from data rather than being chosen more or less arbitrarily.

By 'everything' I mean all previous general elections. He's never been wrong for those since he started making predictions. See above for reasons concerning the primaries.

Why do non-Americans think their opinion matters about our politics? You don't see us going out of our way to discuss yours. You euros are so fucking tsundere.

Wtf I hate trump now

What we're witnessing is a party realignment. Silver's methodology will mean nothing after the Wikileaks October surprise and the non-traditional Trump ad blitz that's coming. That's why he fucked up the primary and why he's wrong about the general.

>If they actually had something than we'd see all kinds of preemptive damage control from the Dem camp. But we don't.
They literally said "the next leak will contain false information". How is that not damage control?

Your politics have world-wide ramifications. As such, we take an interest.
>You don't see us going out of our way to discuss yours.
That's kind of a silly thing to say, given that I see pictures of Hitler posted here all the time.

see you after debates

Link? I'm genuinely interested. I may have missed something.

Google it faggot

ok so basically what you're saying is
USA USA USA #1 YEEEEEEEEHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA SUCK MY DICK EURO FAGGOT HOW MANY AIRCRAFT CARRIERS DOES YOUR ENTIRE UNION HAVE LOL GOOD LUCK WITHOUT US' HELP ENJOY YOUR MUDSLIMES
right?

pretty much, but you forgot the obligatory #BlackLivesMatter

the silent majority is on trumpside

MAGA

politico.com/story/2016/08/democrats-cyberhack-russia-lies-227080

Fair enough. There seems to be something to it. But I wonder if it'll sway voters, because the last leaks didn't really do much either.

All the polls say otherwise.

The previous leaks contained too much info. Subsequent leaks will be increasingly focused on whatever Assange thinks is the smoking gun. It takes time to curate and organize what they have. They're probably also waiting for the Russians to give then the green light.

>They're probably also waiting for the Russians to give then the green light.
Wait, so it is not up for debate who's actually responsible for the hack anymore? If it really is the Russians, how on earth are people taking the info in the leaks on face value?

>the silent majority is on trumpside

Unfortunately, this is something Nationalists have been saying since the 60s....

Do you even know what the fuck "the silent majority" means? Of course you don't you're a CTR shill.

TRUMP I'm glad I make the powerful uncomfortable - means that I'm fighting for real change.

youtube.com/watch?v=wRSg44gm2Xg

Hillary flies 20 miles in private jet from Martha’s Vineyard to Nantucket

theamericanmirror.com/rich-hillary-flies-20-miles-private-jet-marthas-vineyard-nantucket/

Moron. Are you saying the silent majority are people who are literally invisible? Because that would be the only scenario in which the polls could turn out the way they do now.

>heh check these poll numbers from straight after the DNC

Brexit was extremely unlikely to happen as well.

Well i guess i wont bother voting then :)

daily reminder polls are pozzed
Retardus +6.9% more democrats
Economist/yougov
77. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a ...?
Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33%
Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24%
Independent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
NBC no sample data
Bloomberg No sample data

>trusting polls
>ever

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA WHAT A FAGGOT

Well, no. That was more like a tossup.