What are the odds that Trump is actually winning but polls don't reflect this because of a Shy Tory Factor?

What are the odds that Trump is actually winning but polls don't reflect this because of a Shy Tory Factor?

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philly.com/philly/news/politics/presidential/20160825_Reuters_L1N1B602J_Assange_says_WikiLeaks_to_release__significant__Clinton_campaign_data.html
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I'd say the odds are pretty high, just compare trump rallies to Hilary's. Both are hated but trump has a lot of support to make up for it, whereas Hilary doesn't

nice flag

Wasnt Remain leading in all the polls before the real Brexit vote happen?

yes

your boy's doing good lad don't worry

Nah, it got a good lead in several polls in the couple weeks preceding the vote.

It swung back towards Remain a couple of days before.

Zero

>Cav pls go

Polls also don't capture the hidden vote of people who either have never voted before or haven't in many years, because the polls only question "likely voters" which they define as people who have voted in the last election. I know several people who just don't ever vote because they dismiss the system as hopelessly corrupt, but who are planning to vote for Trump in November. People like that don't get polled.

>colleagues/acquaintances start talking politics
>i can't believe Donald fucking Trump got this close to being president of the country
>yeah, how stupid could you be to vote for someone like him?
>what about you user? who are you voting for?
>i'm undecided for now.
>leftiststriggered.jpg

shy tory factor will DEFINITELY play a major part in the election. i know personally id be hesitant about coming out as a trump supporter to my mates, mandem, gangdem and senpai-bruh.

leave was leading for a couple weeks but yeah, mostly it was either tied or remain was leading by about 10 points. especially after that mp got shot (false flag)

dont believe the polls guys

0. The polls are skewed because now people will have something to believe when the votes are rigged. It's a pretty evil two step process.

The reptilian elites have already made their decision.

Donald Trump is losing now and would lose if nothing happens between now and the election. Let's see what happens.

Components of "shy tory factor":
1. Refuse to state intentions (Trump -> Johnson) - not very damaging to polls accuracy
2. Refuse to poll (hang up) - can be mitigated slightly with larger sample size/ more calls
3. Lie (Trump -> Clinton) - extremely damaging to polls accuracy
I'm not sure how paranoid US citizens are regarding data collection and government persecution. If (3) is the norm, then you'd be right. But we'd also be in the dark as well.

Trump is going to win.

i need debates

HE WILL WIN


THE POLLS ARE LIES

THE POLLS ARE LIES


TRUMPS RALLIES FILL STADIUMS

CLINTON HAS TO GET PHOTOSHOPPED RALLIES

TRUMP CAN ONLY GAIN

CLINTON CAN ONLY LOSE

Found the Shills, The Shy tory Factor is Real you cucks.

0 polling is as old as democracy , ~4000 years old it's the oldest hard science and the most exact. It's pretty obvious, I mean if you see a poll telling you that your house is on fire and the answer is Yes. Your house is definitely on fire, trust the polls or you may end up dead.

3 is most likely the result, the Brexit campaign is a good example of this going on.

The Cucks lie and lie and lie. so as for now we are looking at a good find

Don't be so faithless. Remember the October Suprise is coming

Trump in my opinion has a 95% chance of winning the election. :)

It's hard to say, anyone who believes any absolute truth can be found in polling is an idiot, but I'm always skeptical of what I once thought was the "Shy Tory Meme", which 2015 and 2016 proved was unequivocally not a meme when the Conservatives trounced Labour and Brexit won.

With the recent daily tracking polls not coinciding with NBC/CNN polls, I'd say the odds are 60%.

This, as it stands right now Trump would lose. What's really key is if the leaks Assange has are damning or not.

how many bongs until the leak?

Uhh you don't need a fucking poll to see if your house is in on fucking fire,

That's a retarded analogy
"I mean if you see a poll telling you that your house is on fire and the answer is Yes."

That's fucking stupid. You go to look for yourself. This isn't any different. Trump draws int he crowds like no one else (besides bernie) It's not a fucking hard science if it can be rigged. and these Polls are Rigged.

Ever since Brexit. I've known POLLS MEAN DICK.

Trump is winning and that's the end of it.

Trump would win Actually. Right now he would. Because What hillary tried to do to the alt right just damaged her campaign.

Trump would and will Win. End. Of. Discussion.

I think he said he would release it before the debates, so I'm thinking September or early October.

philly.com/philly/news/politics/presidential/20160825_Reuters_L1N1B602J_Assange_says_WikiLeaks_to_release__significant__Clinton_campaign_data.html

Definitely prior to November though

You didn't get the memo? Everyone is only pretending to support Hillary. Then when trump wins in a landslide Hillary strokes the fuck out finally from the grief and the world is just a little better.

Look I know you're optimistic, and I do think there is a "Shy tory" effect for Trump supporters, however, right now Trump is in a bad spot.

I would say low, since republicans are usually a lower portion of the population that votes statistically higher than democrats already. This election is different in that neither have approval rating above 50%, still the odds of a democrat voting for Trump over Johnson is low compared to a Trump supporter voting for Hillary.

Most Trump supporters don't answer the phone when it's an unknown number. They've been getting scam calls for years and have learned to let it go to voice mail if it's unknown. Trump's base has been heavily targeted for scam calls over the years because they are assumed to be gullible old middle class white people who are most likely to be tricked into giving away their credit card information over the phone.

Hillary supporters are retarded attention whores who cream themselves at the chance to open their fat fucking mouths, so of course they enthusiastically answer the phone, no matter who calls. To them, any form of attention is like getting a facebook "like" in real life.

Trump supporters in our age group, assuming they even answer the phone, will hang up as soon as they realize it's a poll. We grew up literally being oppressed for being white. We've seen our peers harmed by shitlibs, drugged by the state, and even killed by chimps for simply expressing our beliefs and thinking for ourselves. Why would even the most naive among us give our power level away to a random data-mining robocall claiming to be an innocent poll, knowing they can tie that opinion directly to our phone number and physical address, knowing people get their cars wrecked, lose their jobs, and get their shit kicked in sideways for saying anything remotely pro-Trump outside the anonymity of the internet?

The only thing resembling an objective poll that has taken place yet is the number of people who show up at the rallies. And from the rally pictures, we can clearly see this election is fucking over and has been for quite some time. The lie that Hillary has any chance whatsoever is being pushed so hard 24/7 by all (((media))) for one reason and one reason only: They plan to steal the election with the rigged electronic voting machines. They want us to be so bewitched by this narrative that we'll succumb to doubt and let it happen.

Will you let them get away with it?

Trump supporters are the MAJORITY of Americans!!! Fuck those polls and shove them up a libcucks ass. The media is trash lies JEW FUCKING GARBAGE

NEVER! If Trump somehow loses this election because of niggers and fucking government unions stuffing the ballot box there will be revolution. And the pot head drug addict "Bernie revolution" we will bring the nation to its knees.

Bad spot for now.
No Trump supporter in their right mind would EVER vote for Shillary.

>i know personally id be hesitant about coming out as a trump supporter to my mates, mandem, gangdem and senpai-bruh.

I have half my friends support Trump and the others are like the pic of the guy pounding off in front of the feminist parade. No one really presents arguments other than "drumpf" or we need immigrants or "you have to admit x about Trump is ridiculous". The asshurt was amazing, it chapped their asses more when I said I respect Sanders supporters and it's a real sham what Hillary and the DNC did to him.

My fucking sides. Even bongs can't come out as Trump supporters. Why would anyone in the US?

SHUT IT DOWN

Polls don't measure enthusiasm

A lot of people who say they'd vote for Hillary over Trump won't actually go vote, especially if they think Hillary is going to win anyways like the media has been saying.

People who support Trump generally will go vote for him, because they are far more motivated