German Bundestagswahl (GE) 2017

Alright guys, I know it's a little early for this but in Germany there's word that Merkel will probably run for a 4th term in the general election next year.

Sauce: reuters.com/article/us-germany-merkel-idUSKCN0Q636920150801

ITT: Post your predictions what you think is going to happen, what you (if you're German) sense about the political climate in your family, neighbourhood, working place etc, which scenarios you think are probable or in general anything related probably the most important election in Germany since 1933.

I'll start, this is my prediction:

I doubt that AfD will get significantly more than 20% of the votes. The leftist non-argument "DAS RAYSUS" still has a lot of power here, although significantly less than even 3 years ago

Merkel will probably get around 30% of the vote and form a coalition with the greens or someone else. Literally every party would be willing to form a coalition with her except the AfD so as I see it, there are only three realistic scenarios

>CDU becomes strongest party again, Merkel forms coalition with another cuck party, Germany continues to go down the drain

>SPD becomes strong enough to form a coalition with the Green party and the Left party, SJW cuckery intensifies even more, Germany is completely fucked, probably beyond the point of no return

>AfD gets enough votes to intimidate the cuck parties to listen to the people again and force them to work on the real problems instead of SJW and immigrant bs, Germany is still fucked but not as hard as in the other two scenarios. Only works if CDU becomes ruling party again because a left government would demonstratively ignore everything that comes from the right

There is literally no way AfD could become the ruling party unless they get the absolute majority of the parliamentary seats which is almost impossible at this point.

Now your turn

Bumping for Merkel's landslide reelection

Kek wills her defeat m8

It looks like afd is getting more people from cdu than spd... Afd maybe can widdle down those voters and become bigger than spd but cdu will have a slight majority over afd.

Kek won't allow it!

I really doubt SPD will go for the coalition with the Linke. I think we're in for another Große Koalition.
Agree with AfD getting about 15-20%. After they hang out and fail to achieve anything their numbers will drip again.

Yeah I think so too, Germany really needs a miracle to get out of this mess

The best thing imo would be if some genuine right wing guy hijacked the CDU, changed its positions significantly and then formed a coalition with AfD and maybe even FDP (market liberal party), but unfortunately that's really unlikely

Didn't Merkel barely make win last election. I don't think she will win a 4th term. I think with every migrant attack a number of people turn to AfD. When people keep getting the shaft, they will loose it and do the opposite of what they have been told.

Odds are Merkel will not have a 4th term. I think it will come down to the SPD and AfD. But I haven't been back to Germany for a little more than a decade so I don't know what the atmosphere is anymore.

Ya'll niggers need term limits.

why post data from june?

>Didn't Merkel barely make win last election

They missed the absolute majority by a few seats only, it was a big triumph for her

She was actually pretty popular until she let 2 million potential terrorists in our country. I think the atmosphere has really changed a lot compared to 2013, mostly due to the migrant crisis, but many people still think she's the most qualified candidate

germans hate change so no

I'm actually not sure if she's gonna run. She's been way too quiet about it so far and I remember her mentioning in an interview a few months ago that "it's time to step down" at some point. I think it's more likely she'll hand it over to von der Leyen. Barely a better option but she's far less controversial right now and CDU knows how unpopular Merkel became.

she is waiting for what csu will say

I took the image from the english Wikipedia, figured numbers wouldn't have changed that much and looking at these polls they really didn't

Forsa is a literal meme poll btw, no way AfD is at 10%

spd was at 19 at yours and cdu at 32. right now spd is more at 22 and cdu at 34

>I think we're in for another Große Koalition

Wew I see your point and I think it's possible but that would really annoy the shit out of people. It would only feed those who see CDU and SPD as a new SED kind of bloc. I don't have much against that since AfD would profit from it but I doubt they'd take the risk to completely alienate the voters

Maybe the german south will rise? East is also pretty right if i remember correctly

I would argue that a lot can change in the next year.

I really hate that, how do people make up their mind about this?

>Well there wasn't another muslim going crazy in the last 6 weeks so I guess now I'm #MerkelMissile

Yes the East is quite right wing.

After everything that's happened, there's no way Merkel can gain enough support for re-election, right? Or has Germany really fallen this low?

>many people still think she's the most qualified candidate
lol germans sure are an unintelligent people

if she candidates she will win

Black-red has been the cancer of german parlament, basicly eroding opposition as the CDU came to terms with hosting our lefties and went of the deep end with them

Short memory. At the time some are polled they are disgusted at a terrorist attack lets say, but a few weeks later they may decide that it isn't worth being upset over, or the constant barrage of leftist information might cause these voters to become dormant or give up hope on change.

The east probably yes, MV and Berlin elections next month will indicate the political atmosphere there

The south not so much I think, I live in Bavaria and AfD is at roughly 10% here because everyone votes CSU. They are the literal cuck party, they say they are against many things Merkel does but still support her and although Bavarians are widely anti immigrant, they just fall for the rhetoric and vote CSU again

I wonder where we've seen that the last time in Germany

sadly, it is going to happen

every election since ww2 when spd was weak

Well, CSU leadership has been in revolt for a while now, the bavarian muslim attacks only cemented that fact seehofer might take the position from merkel

What day is the general election?

Yeah but instead of just using the leftists to stay in power like Kiesinger did in the 60s, the CDU just transformed itself into a left party

Eternal Merkel

a sunday in sept/oct 2017

That is not just a issue with Bavarians, but all white voters. They will follow a party that will be deemed as """Far-Right""" and agree with their policies, the opposing parties will not accept these policies and reject them outright even thought their own voter base supports them as well. Eventually this moderate parties voters will flock to this """Far-Right""" party. After a few instances of reality occur, like a mass rape or a terrorist attack lets say, the moderates will adopt the """"Far-right""" parties policies and will regain the voters they lost because these lemmings will think "T..h.ey're they're finally listening." I call it the battered voter syndrome, similar to a battered spouse, they always return to their master no matter how bad they abuse them.

>every election since ww2 when spd was weak

Considering that Germany basically had a 2 party system until the FDP showed their power level in 1982, that's logical

In 1994 SPD wasn't weak and yet CDU won by like 2 seats

In 2005 SPD wasn't weak and yet CDU won by a tiny margin

I hope you're right, that would be epic

I don't get it.... I DONT GET IT

are you seriously saying that it's basicallt all socialist fucks

>SPD = Socialist Partei Deutschald
>CSU + Christ Socialists Union
>left/green are mayor Leftist cunts

all but poor little AfD is right?

>bavarian chancelor candidate from cdu/csu
and there comes the absolute spd majority in niedersachsen and nrw

>AfD becomes 2nd biggest party
>Merkel wants a cuck coalition but SPD is not enough and three party negociations take some time
>part of her party call for alliance with AfD instead
>would seem more natural after hypothetical Hoffer-Trump-Le Pen wins, esprcially if the last one happens because then Germany would have to accept a new, limited Union and AfD would be a natural actor in designing a proposal that France could agree
>Bitter internal conflict in CDU/CSU
>Merkel eventually sees it's time to go and that she doesn't have a real majority
>resigns
>Some Bavarian moderate right winger replaces her, allies with AfD, does a bit like Theresa May

sozial=social
sozialistisch=socialistic
spd=social democrats
csu=social christians

>AfD
>right

they're liberals who act like edgy natsocs to get attention. Nobody of them should ever see the interior of a parliament building.

Anyway, here's my prediction regardless whether Merkel runs or not, following options might be likely:

>FDP gets back in, CDU and FDP have enough votes to form a coalition again
Best "realistic" outcome in my opinion because at least we'd get rid of the cancerous SPD, still pretty bad because both parties are led by neoliberal cucks

>first option not available, CDU forms a coalition with SPD again
Nothing changes, situation remains terrible

>CDU forms a coalition with the Greens
Would probably be even more terrible than what we have right now because Greens are the worst SJW cuck party we have. I don't really see it happening, though, even if our media seems to love this idea

>SPD, Greens and Lefties get absolute majority and form a coalition
Worst possible outcome, would literally turn Germany into Sweden 2.0

AfD would need an absolute majority to rule which is pretty much impossible at this point. They might cause some trouble if they get enough votes to look like a "serious threat" to the other parties, though. Personally, I'm probably gonna vote for FDP because the first option seems like the least terrible one to me right now.

so it's socialist competing whose more progressive

nice.

> The leftist non-argument "DAS RAYSUS" still has a lot of power here, although significantly less than even 3 years ago


I agree it has lost A LOT of power.
I'm speaking from a rural western german area where CDU usually gets aournd 55-60%.
Most people here are what burgers would call cuckservatives.

It is hard to predict what will happen next year becuz terrorist attacks etc will ofc infulence an election and are not predictable.

First of all, many people dont admit that they vote AfD to pollsters.

I made some calculation: during the last 3 regional election the

CDU got on aaverage 93% of what was projected in polls.

The SPD around 88%.
Greens 92%, Left only 78%, FDP 112% and AfD 132%.

If you take that into consideration right now an election would look like this :

CDU : 31,8%
SPD: 19,1%
Greens: 11,4%
Left: 7,6%
FDP: 6,7%
AfD: 15,0%

I think that the AfD will eventually grow and we will have something around 17-21% for the AfD next election if they dont fk up. Also the FDP will grow as an alternative for educated ppl that dont wanna vote AfD. I project them at around 7,5%

The climate is becoming more and more critical of Merkel and people are now openly speaking out but in a still moderate way.

Regarding where Germany was like 4 years ago that is a strong swing to the right.

If I need to project a result based on current polling and the adjustments I mentioned I guess we will have :

CDU 30%
SPD: 18,5%
Greens: 10%
Left: 7,5%
FDP: 7,5%
AfD: ~18%

I'm actually fine with that if they honestly really start to work on the problems and not just say stuff about it. In 2013 many people realized that it was all talk no action and the AfD was founded. If the big parties don't start to address the real issues after the next election, AfD will eventually become the strongest party in Germany.

Germans need to pass a law that limits the tenure of a PM to two terms.

It's essentially a monarchy atm

There "is" the npd but they are buttfucked by retard tier nazi's, reputation and being on the verge of being outlawed, pirates were promising but became fedora's

It wouldn't be Stoiber tho kek

Unfortunately you have a point

God damn it Germans, how is that Poland can have in parliament:
> national-socialist ruling party that got 40%
> national-liberal party that helps first one (got 10%)
> pro-eu and slitghly lefty, slightly socialist party that got 25% (they are german/jewish fags)
> and basically the same (again the same, but this time more german fags) with 7%

... and you have just one normal party to vote for.

There is literally no one in Polish parliament who supports gay marriage. Maybe this time we should partition with Czechs and Austrians for 123 years and you will fucking learn.

how can you stay positive Hans?

burgers have trump to hope for we had nigel YOU HAVE NO ONE

That would be too good to be true

It's a nice dream senpai

The fact that they're now taling about burqas is a sign they plan to talk for nothing for as long as it can last. Especially when that's the same people who have opened Europe's borders wide and don't plan to even close them.

They're just following France's lead. When your demography will be irremediably altered like ours, they'll talk about burkinis.

What are AfD views towards Poland?

The best thing that could happen to Germans right now is more terrorist attacks in fact. Fuckin kek.

>WW2

>many people still think she's the most qualified candidate

I have never seen anyone speak good about Merkel. If anything she is the reason some people start raging. She only has media monkeys trying to put a good air on her. No charisma and no positive results from anything she has done so far (and therefore all the failures get swept under the rug - like the Energiewende).

Nah, it's not people believing in her. It's just media trying to make her look good and her own party that cannot function anymore without her (or so her sock puppets claim).

The germans had worse than sandniggers occupying and we've made it

Wew lad that's some nice detailed stuff

I'm really not sure what's the ceiling for the AfD is though because many people dislike them and there had to be something of major impact to convince them to vote for them.

Also I don't understand how the educated people consider the FDP an alternative to Merkel, they are literally the first party that gets cucked by CDU because they are the most similar

Communism that's why. The communists wanted to destroy every nation they held power in. They did this through destruction of identity, and the Polish rebelled by holding onto their tradition values and their national identity.

was?

You mean Jews? Because they still occupy you as well.

The problem is that the AFD has no options for a coalition, and will never be large enough to form a government on their own.

You might think the CDU/CSU will eventually warm up to them, and for certain parts of the party this might be true, but the trajectory of the party as a whole is a completly different one.

Merkel knows what she is doing. She knows that her policies are creating a Neo_Germany in which actual Germans will increasingly become a smaller and smaller segment of the population, which is why they already start pandering pretty hard to migrants and "Germans" with migrational background.

This is only going to lead them further to the left, to the point where they a coalition with the AFD will really become impossible, because it will endanger their standing with the Neogermans they are trying to woo.

Well, they actually have the most sane immigrationa ns asylum policy among the established parties and they wanna cut welfare for everyone, including immigrants which will naturally decrease economic immigration.

If you are a centrist that does not wanna go as far as voting for a party of Höcke and Gauland you might consider FDP, especially among academic circles becuz the AfD is highly shamed there. Also Lindner is the only intelligent party leader in germany right now.

pol doesnt realise that most voters will not make their vote only dependant on the refugee topic

And they didn't mind soviets prioritizing prussians

>When your demography will be irremediably altered like ours, they'll talk about burkinis.

That shit is really pathetic hypocrisy. Instead of banning actual muslim immigration they ban a certain kind of dress muslim women might wear

I was eluding to soviets

Don't remind me of Prussia friend, it's destruction relegated my family to this god forsaken nation.

Well the people I see that speak good about Merkel are mostly leftists and they probably will vote for an even more left candidate.

>It's just media trying to make her look good and her own party that cannot function anymore without her

I'm really excited to see who will succeed her. The party will probably erupt in civil war when she leaves the stage

It will play a significant factor if we enter into another June/July-tier habbening season.

The East did, not the West. The reason as to why it is better dealing with this invasion, but yes Germany has been resilient.

If it continues like this CDU and SPD will probably not have enough votes to form a grand coalition.

CDU and Greens will also not have enough, even if they include some shitty little party like the FDP they won't get over 50%.

SPD, Greens and Linke together are also not enough to form a government.

It's gonna end in an even grander coaltion consisting of CDU, SPD and either FDP or the Greens, which will end in even more resentment with the interchangeable parties.

>Merkel knows what she is doing

Fiction dispelled lel

>She knows that her policies are creating a Neo_Germany in which actual Germans will increasingly become a smaller and smaller segment of the population, which is why they already start pandering pretty hard to migrants and "Germans" with migrational background.

Yeah she's practically trying to do the same thing with the immigrants as the Democrats in the US have done with the blacks - building a reliable voting block that will keep them in power

Germany is legitimately becoming the Weimar Republic once again. I wonder if the same Act follows once its coalition Governments collapse under its inability to agree on anything.

Would there ever be a scenario similar to Austria, in which half of the country votes for an actual right winger?

>AFD not @ 60%

You are cucked for life


Also it s funny , the West calls Assad a dictator, yet Merkel and Assad Ruled their country for the same amout of years ( currently 16 )

I agree, some of their positions are very resonable. Problem is they will never get a big enough part of the vote to become the bigger party in a coalition and as the small part, well, we've seen in 2009-2013 what they can achieve as the small part of a coalition. Tax cuts for Hotels, great.

They would instantly surrender their good ideas if they get offered a place in a coalition and the bigger party would decide on the actually important policies

Nah, we have a different constitution now. That said, the current situation really reminds me of the Weimar Republic more and more, next years are gonna be interesting for sure.

Top kek I would love to see a four party coalition, that would be epic

It would show to the people who are against the governments policies that they could either vote AfD, Left or don't vote at all

It would be literal Weimar Republic Even a CDU-SPD and FDP or Green coalition would cause a similar effect

Hilarious isn't, how perfectly history is repeating itself, like a broken record. But this time I think the ending will be different, we shall see.

Austria is very different, they have

>ÖVP = conservative, but much less cucked than CDU
>SPÖ = cuck party
>Greens = Greens
>LF = libtards

And the based FPÖ

FPÖ and ÖVP could form an FPÖ led coalition without problem, IF Hofer gets elected president in October because the Austrian presidents orders a certain party with forming the government coalition

>this time I think the ending will be different, we shall see.

I doubt the ending will be a WW 3, the only real enemy in that case would be China and parts of Africa

We're witnessing the biggest opportunity for regime change in the Western hemisphere since the abolition of absolutism. The perfect outcome would be a world of nation states with REAL diversity (interspective not intraspective) that respect each other and govern to, for and by the will of the people

I dunno, weimar was fucked because of the bullshit the western powers pulled, were fucked today because of muzzies and hard-leftism, but i suppose that can be pinned on the decay of the USA, so its more of a mirrior to what happened in the east block

i don't have any predictions but i'm hoping for some terrorist attacks before the election, hopefully a really big one like 80+ dead

i think this'll help the parties i want

No, I agree. I very much so doubt a Third World War, if anything it would be a Great Asian War between Pakistan, China, and India, which is shockingly likely. I mean't more of a rise someone influential similar to Hitler.

For things to get as bad as at the end of the Weimar Republic, the situation still has to get much, much worse, to a point when people will be literally starving on the streets. Shit might go down here if DB actually collapses and causes EU economy to crash.

I always hoped we could stay clear of hoping for this shit but unfortunately you're right

Without something happening and the media just covering up the failures, Merkel will easily get close to 40% of the vote

Yes, but your Immigrant population and Hard-Left bloc can create the economic hardship that the Western Powers created.

>I mean't more of a rise someone influential similar to Hitler

That would be Trump then I guess, he'd be the leader of the western world if he gets elected and nobody could challenge him

I see it that if it happens now, that means more people will wake up and a better chance for parties to get in that are against this type of immigration

if it doesn't happen until millions of more are in, it will end up happening at a much bigger scale and more frequently. thinks like Paris and Nice

Germany is just a cucked US miltiary base at this point.

You don't get to express any political views outside of right-leaning globalism or left-leaning globalism. You're also the backbone of the EU, so all the bureaucratic artists that run the EU have latched on to Germany to keep it from leaving.

You have to tear down the whole system to uncuck Germany.

Agreed, Greece is the perfect modern example of what happens when your economic prospects are destroyed. Now they have a legitimate Fascist party receiving votes, same with Communist parties as well.

I think some big shit is going to happen soon, they can't do attacks every day because people will get used to it then. If they do one big attack every few months it has a big impact and this year we had Brussels in march, Orlando in June and Nice in July.

I don't believe so, I think Trump is just the beginning. I think Hofer, Wilders, Le Pen will eventually be cast aside for more radical leaders if they do not solve many of the issue plaguing Modern Europe. We shall see, once these so called Nationalists are voted in we shall really see who is true to their nation and who is not.

>I think Hofer, Wilders, Le Pen will eventually be cast aside for more radical leaders if they do not solve many of the issue plaguing Modern Europe

Well I rather fear that the people will just go back to voting for the cucks then

That is something to legitimately fear as well.