Donald Trump Surges To Three-Point Lead in USC-Dornsife/LA Times National Tracking Poll

>Trump: 45.1%
>Clinton: 42.3%

>2,500 LV (8/23-29, 2016)

cesrusc.org/election/

Other urls found in this thread:

youtube.com/watch?v=Wyw_D03ywv0
latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-polling-differences-20160809-snap-story.html
cesrusc.org/election/
thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/293752-trumps-popularity-with-african-american-voters-polling-at
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html#polls
twitter.com/SFWRedditImages

lol

wew tight race lads

I wonder what kind of dumb ass shit he is going to say to fuck this up

>La Times

I am done with you fucking drumpfniggers. I am so done.

This. How can these people be so delusional?

Unbelievable.

Stop stealing Shitaly's meme you fucking Croat

Trump's been fucked for a while. Redpill the masses on black violence you stupid faggots.
youtube.com/watch?v=Wyw_D03ywv0

Drumpfkins are truly the most pathetic, desperate shitposters on this board, worse than the leafs.

le polls don't matter

>believing jewish polls

>August 1th

>Polls don't mean shit.

My defense when polls show Trump behind. Guess I can't say much now

>get bombed to shit by bill blinton
>end up shilling for his wife for scraps
JUST

Donald Trump loses: funny times

He wins: we get to see him fuck up really bad

The next four years are going to be amazing, Reddit

This, hillary is a chickenhawk

>1th
drumpfnigger please

Ho Lee Fuk

What reality is this, LA times is a liberal newspaper, I can't believe they are telling a truth.

dont go using factual statement as insults

So WTF is happening here? Asians moving to Trump in droves? Jews? Muslims? Halfies?

all the polls are irrelevant and inaccurate

nobody likes hillary. slightly fewer people dislike trump, if the election isnt rigged he will likely win.

...

brate jel to shill-as za porodicu koja te je bombardovala?

poo in loos are also voting for trumpen.
only cucks and lazy shits are with |->|er

Casual reminder that Obama only won in 2012 because of dead people voting for him in Ohio.

...

Wait, fuck, Obama is a necromancer? Shit I thought he was just a black mage

>Argentina
>White

(((polls)))

Pol is a lot more desperate now, than it was in 2012.

>tfw you are dual citizen with a vote
>it goes to the state of California

That's good, but its not a "surge".

He went up one while she went down one.

Wait til other polls show the same movement.

Democrats are very deep into the necromantic arts.

Look at this faggot. Look at him and laugh.

>TRUMP IS LOSING IN POLLS
"polls means nothing"
>TRUMP IS WINNING IN POLLS
"OMFG guys he is winning ....cant stump the trump ... !!!!@()*#&)R&"

>Too stupid to spot an obvious joke

Shut the fuck up. You must be the same person posting this comment.

>The Daybreak poll goes a step further and weights the sample to account for how people say they voted in 2012: It’s set so that 25% of the sample are voters who say they cast a ballot for Mitt Romney and 27% for President Obama. The rest are either too young to have voted four years ago or say they didn’t vote.

>The potential problem is that people tend to fib about how they voted. Polls have often found that the percentage of people who say after an election that they voted for the winner exceeds the winner’s actual vote.

>If that’s the case this year, then weighting for the vote history would result in slightly too many Republican voters in the sample, which would probably boost Trump’s standing by a point or two.
latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-polling-differences-20160809-snap-story.html

>The USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election "Daybreak" Poll is part of the ongoing Understanding America Study: (UAS) at the University of Southern California’s (USC) Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research, in partnership with the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics and the Los Angeles Times. Every day, we invite one-seventh of the members of the UAS election panel to answer three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that… (1) you will vote in the presidential election? (2) you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else? and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win? As their answers come in, we update the charts daily (just after midnight) with an average of all of the prior week’s responses.
cesrusc.org/election/

The more you know.

Why is it always the LA Times saying Trump is leading and everyone else says that it's literal apocalypse for Trump? Like wtf is going on

The polls don't really mean shit. They will continue to fluctuate until the final day, and you can count on the media to pull every dirty trick they know of to try and get Trump's numbers below Hillary's.

The internal polls that are being conducted by the campaigns are telling a very different story, which is why Trump has been so confident this last week and Hillary Clinton has been ranting and raving about her racist and alt-right boogeymen. She once again is pulling out her vast right wing conspiracy theory in a desperate effort to rile up the democrat party's left-wing base and to distract from all the scandals that keep sprouting up around her.

But whatever-- CTR preaches about polls as if they are god, so if Trump being ahead makes them flee back to their safe space even for just a few days I'll take it.

truth hurts your ass?

See

Because he's winning, even when the polls are rigged. That's what's important about it. Even with all of the heavy weighting on Democrats, Trump STILL has more support.

Theres also a information bias polling the same people over and over
They tend to get more interested in politics

How does the sampling even work in most of these polls? In the statistics most of the participants are all identified as democrats. Never in my life have I been selected to participate in a poll.

Guys, I did some reading into the Quinnipac poll recently which put Clinton up 7 in Pennsylvania. They undersampled Indys and Repubs so much. I adjusted the numbers and he's up 0.5%. Well within the margin of error, but still a lead.

Islanders

Is it only one Serb who does this or are there a team of Serbs trying to fake shitpost?

It also bakes in any bias that would normally be filtered out by changing polling groups.

And averaging several days work of polls causes bumps to be muted to fuck and back (which is a good thing until right before the election, but this also separates this poll from others).

This poll looks different from other polls for several good reasons.

If Islanders are voting for Trump, then he's got Hawaii. First Republican to get it since Reagan.

Not that the extra 4 votes really matter, but it could potentially allow him to lose Virginia and Pennsylvania and still snag a win.

>roach posting

no thank you

>mfw USC fag
>mfw we're the only mainstream poll who isn't conducting retarded methhodologies to put Clinton in the lead

Be thankful you cunts

USC is still shit, m8. Just less shit than other universities.

Virginia's not even considered a swing state anymore. If he loses Pennsylvania, Hillary has 269 electoral votes.

He would have to win every other swing state to tie and flip a blue state to win. Trump needs literally every vote he can get his hands on.

That said, he's not winning Hawaii.

t. jelly UC fag probably

See

It's gonna fluctuate like crazy for the next 2 months. If the trend continues in an upward direction for Trump I'll start to believe it. But it seems like the second Trump gains a lead he (((mysteriously))) plummets like a fucking rock soon after.

>mysteriously
It's called a bump for a reason. they tend to be bump shaped.

Vote anyway. Help him rack up a higher popular vote.

Polls should only show electoral college outcomes. That's all that matters

Umm samefag

Because people don't realize this due to stupidity but the polls are rigged.

If you ask 1000 people who they're voting for, you can make whatever result you want to appear by asking people in different areas.

Ask 1000 college kids and they're more likely to vote for the person with the most liberal policies.

Ask 1000 business owners and they're more likely to vote for the person with the more conservative policies.

Some of these polls are even outright biased and state they polled for instance 500 democrats, 300 republicans, and 100 independents. Is it any surprise then that Hillary has a lead?

Finally you have to account for actual voter statistics. Very few people vote, and minorities/liberals are notoriously underrepresented when it comes time to actually vote. Liberals will shill Hillary or Bernie till the sun explodes but on election day they're out partying and don't give a shit.

>if the election isnt rigged

that's a big "if", buddy

Polls are usually conducted very carefully to account for all these things. Also generally polls are pretty spot on and predict the outcome accurately.

thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/293752-trumps-popularity-with-african-american-voters-polling-at

>Trump polling at zero for blacks!!!!!!

Google black Trump supporter. It obviously isn't zero, they just polled anti-Trump blacks.

>If the trend continues in an upward direction for Trump
>trend

FUCKING RARE

N-NANI?

Is there a reason why LATimes says +3 while RealClearPolitics says Tie when mentioning the same poll?

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html#polls

>Polls oversampled by dems independents
>Trump still winning

Do you understand why some would celebrate this?

Stealth rare.

I really fucking hate R-money but there was some serious fuckery going on in Ohio and a couple other places in that election. I remember reading about there being entire regions with hundreds of thousands of people where there was not a single Romney vote. That shit didnt even happen in commifornia or jew york.

LATimes uses 7 groups of respondents that don't change for their poll, each group responding each day on a 7 day rotation, with the listed result being an average of the 7 most recent measurements. This listed average is updated daily. (they also do an expanded weekly poll of why people responded the way they did).

RCP only updates their LATimes measurement once per week because it's only an entirely fresh measurement every 7 days.

LATimes admits their methodology oversamples Republicans if anything.

DELETE THIS

>polls
you americunts make me sick with all your poll posts
no one cares about polls

He's closing the gap state-by-state too.

The polls don't matter unless they show Hillary winning!
>t lefty Sup Forums

Next level retardation from croatia

THIS CAN'T BE HAPPENING
I'M IN CHARGE HERE

>worse than the leafs.
Sorry but please fuck you.

...

Do people still fall for this? I know UnSkewedPolls.com fooled people all cycle, but at least LongRoom.com gave up the hoax before September.

gibe back

I like Hillary and despise trump.

Hillary dedicated a very large portion of her life to charity, she used to help disabled children even before her political career. she is not "crooked" or "evil", she made some mistakes in her career but i think she is overall a good person.

Trump in the other hand is just TOO crazy and lacks compassion

YES! HARDER! DEEPER! WE MUST PENETRATE THOSE POLLS!

The Clinton foundation pays a check to Bill and is used as a tax evasion scheme.

I think the Clinton Foundation legit spend most of it's money on charity, despite what people here might say, espicially considering the long history of clinton with charities (basically most of her life)

...

the key Asian-Americans-and-Pacific-Islanders-for-H demographic is now switching to Trump

this polls been jumping back and forth for weeks now, its really annoying.

yeah buddy

You realize we have trips you dumbshit

LA fag here. They are perhaps the least liberal of the liberal rags.

Okay, so I know you moved the sliders around, but I just want to point out one thing.

Most demographics are within about 10% of a 50/50 split between Democrats and Republicans.

Except for one.

Muzzies discovered the truth about Trump.

Why is Muslim Trump wearing a Sikh turban?

This. Remember Brexit?

It was remain up until the 11th hour in the polls, I even gave a disheartened sigh in work when the radio stated "polls show it is likely that Britain will remain in the EU"...only to find the contrary in the morning.

Basically liberal feel good my stating their allegiance in polls. They can do it from their iPhones in a Starbucks. It's a lot easier to signal this way. However REGISTERING to vote means boring paperwork, and actually going to a polling station on the day...no one wants to do that on a hangover/comedown.

That's why loads of remain libcucks didn't actually vote

Sorry for typos by the way