French Presidential Election

Does Marine Le Pen stand a chance? Her first round polls look good, but head to head match-ups are bad for her. The only person she beats h2h is Hollande, the incumbent, who is wildly unpopular. The French National party seems to have a core support at around a third of voters, and the others coalesce around other candidates.

It seems that she could muster support if nationalism trends globally or France suffers more terror attacks. As of right now, Alain Juppe looks to be the likely winner with favorable polls in both rounds.

Frogs, what do you think?

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

Everytime the national front does a good score, the two big parties will invoke what they call the "republican alliance" and all the dumb fucks voting for one of these parties will go for the candidate who made it for the head match-ups. Like it happened in 2002.

It also happened during the regionnal election recently so i don't see a reason why this should not be the same next year.

Looks like they don't even need to call for it, people avoid voting for her in the 2nd round. There may be time for global shifts to trend France towards nationalism, but I have no idea what the sentiment is there. Do most people resent FN?

It is almost sure she will beat the second turn (unless some catatrophe happens).
Will depend about the terrorism too but if the election was today she would lose, not by a landslide but still lose.

Anyway the biggest objective for the FN is to enter into the parliament (for now they only have 1 representant on a total of 577 sieges)

>but I have no idea what the sentiment is there. Do most people resent FN?

You have a good third of the population that supports FN, the problem is the cucked boomers who are responsable for all the socialist mess we are here today and will not vote FN even if ISIS itself was launching an invasion on France, these people are a lost cause, they have been brainwashed during decade and I can't wait to see them all dead (no really, the elders can go fuck themselves and die in poverty when the retirement system will collapse for all I care, I will treat them ruthlessly when it will be my turn), they ruined France.

be beaten*

She's a woman, nobody really wants to vote for women, especially not the kind of people inclined towards being white nationalists

That's why I think she's actually a plant and FN is controlled opposition.

France needs an actual nationalist party run by men.

That's odd old boomers on France are adamantly against nationalism. Brexit only passed because of the older generation. Similarly in the USA, the young generation is a bunch of socialist retards, with the older population giving nationalism a chance. I'm afraid we've forgotten it.

She doesn't. Even if she did - then what? France is a failed cultural project, not worth of reviving it. Why would you revive a country that created jacobinism? Frenchies should just give most of their space to muslims and set islands of christianity. Vendee would be a good place I guess

Burger here, I had to read about FN and Marie Le Pen for my "Idea of Europe" university course. The class was heavily left leaning, and the articles were suppose to paint a poor picture of FN and Marie, but I liked what I read.

If any frog, or anyone else, can answer a couple of questions; it would be greatly appreciated. (1) What is the general populace's view of FN and Marie Le Pen? (2) Does Marie get some of the Trump treatment (i.e. they continually call her racist? and Lastly (3) Can someone explain why the guy who is polling at about 36% does not get shown in every poll?

Thanks

>What is the general populace's view of FN and Marie Le Pen

Pretty much like Trump, the Intelligentsia and minorities hate her but she has a comfortable support among the lower class (basically the people who used to vote communist switched to first her father and then her since the 00s) and middle class.

>Does Marie get some of the Trump treatment (i.e. they continually call her racist ?

Trump's treatment is half of the time pure slander/libel so no, the french press is not as trashy as US one, but she tries to not give them more bullets than necessary too (unlike her father who was an absolute agitator she controls her speech as much as possible).

But yeah they call her racist or islamophobic often but that's no big deal, the problem is more the social stigma for her supporters, voting FN is still tabou (even if it gets better) in real life, my parents are nowhere near leftists and pretty much agree on everything about immigration or religion with me, and still when I told them I voted for Le pen last year they were a little shellshocked and tried to guilt trip me during a family meeting with all my brothers/uncle/aunts with half of them bluepilled fucks that can't manage to discuss seriously without throwing ad homimem, but anyway I sucked it up and now since the Nice they finally shut the fuck up.

>Can someone explain why the guy who is polling at about 36% does not get shown in every poll?

I don't know who you are talking about ? Macron ?

we're a different breed to the French, a little bit more ballsy

Because we did not live the same Cold War.
In anglo countries (and especially USA) the communists were the absolute enemies from the "Red Scare" to the "Evil Empire" when here we had a 1/4 of the country which was communist and another 1/4 socialist until the 70s.

The fact that we suffered directly from nazi occupation played a big role in that too, communists were a huge part of the resistance after Hitler decided to attack Russia (even if they were the first to betray by sabotaging french material during 1940 and to collaborate).

Anyway I would say that the french millenials are pretty much redpilled compared to the american and english ones, at least when it comes to the boys who understand that the elders fucked them badly by funding their socalist madness (think about the fact that until the 00s there were people who got full retirement at the age of 50), that they will never have it as good as their parents and now probably condemned to fight a civil war during their lifetime (I have 2 or 3 example in which bluepilled normies spontaneously talked about it at my surprise, our generations senses it, the elders on the other hand are in denial and refuse to see the truth).

...

This, i'm afraid. There are an incredible amount of French boomers who will never vote MLP because they are 100% convinced she is full-blown fascist.

Listen, MLP will never be elected now stop with those thread ok?

(((1 post by this ID)))
Gas yourself IMMEDIATELY proxy faggot.

she dug herself a whole in that interview the other day when she said "The UK economic is great, the doom and gloomers are wrong" because we are headed twoard the cliff.

She should have set herself up as, its fine but the economy looks bad as it is, its not brexits fault.

>stop with those thread

Yeah, better having another FRANCE HATE THREAD #2746 where all the newfags spout the memes from 2003 and close the meaningful discussions with intelligent people interested by having a better analysis than " bcuz french are fags, white flag amirite lol".

Pretty much this

Yes there is still a strong social stigma against people who vote for her because of the image of her father. All the media is against her

Op here.

The polls only include one person from each party. I believe each party ponys up one person so the polls reflect hypothetical matchups. I think you mean Juppe? Though I wish the polls I posted were more readable.

Sounds similar to the situation in the US from what everyone has said here. I'd wager MLPs father hurts her with the older generations. Younger people likely don't remember him assuming he is mostly retired at this point.

The media influence scares me. Essentially telling people they should fear MLP and other nationalist candidates. Fear is a powerful motivator, but abusing it has severe consequences.

Polls in France are not that relevant 7 months before the actual election. None of these former presidents were perceived as likely to win at this point : Hollande, Mitterand, Chirac

Le Pen might have a chance if she's against Hollande in the second round. He so despised that his very candidacy to reelection is questioned inside his own party. It would be a huge surprise if he qualifies though.

Is her daughter a coalburner? Y/N