Give me at least ONE proof that Shillary will not win this year

Give me at least ONE proof that Shillary will not win this year.
>inb4 shill
>inb4 CTR
>inb4 1 rouble has been added you account

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realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html
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A month ago this was at 4% for Trump.
So Trump gained 24% in a month
Election is in 2 months.
So Trump will be at 76% by the 8th of November.

Therefore, Trump will win.

Is America FPTP?

Like is the vote out of the total number of states, ie, Republicans win 20 states and the Democrats win 30 states and the Democrats win regardless of total number of votes?

Or does every vote count, ie, 40,000 votes for republican in New York and 60,000 votes for democrat in New York will be added to a total, or do the 40,000 votes for the republican candidate just become negated because the state went democrat?

I'm curious because that puts a lot of power in low population states

...

that site is owned by AOL/ABC. they openly support hillary

Debates haven't happened yet.
Jeb was also leading the polls before the debates.

Each state has a total number of electoral college votes
Each state is winner take all
You need 270 electoral votes to hold majority
It's uncommon, but there have been cases where the majority vote (over 50% of the population) goes to the losing candidate.

Basically the entire system is fucking retarded and doesn't work at all. California and NYC always vote democrat and are two of the three largest vote holding states. 38 of 50 states can vote one way and still lose.

Each state has a set amount of delegates depending on the population. While the popular vote counts in a way, it mainly depends on which states you win. For example, you can win more states than your opponents, but if he wins the 12 major states which result in 270 delegates, he will win the election. Doesn't matter if you won the other 38.
In short, the goal is to get 270 delegates in U.S elections by winning the states with the most delegates.

FPTP
Each state is given a set amount of 'votes' based on population
Low pop states have increased power, but not as much as your clusterfuck

each state has an amount of delegates totalling 538 (269/2)
the delegate count is loosely population based
highest vote count takes all of the state's delegates
270+ wins the election
269-269 is possible but I don't know what happens
t. not a political expert, but merely a passing burger

>FL blue
>NV blue
>NC blue
>OH blue
>inb4 map showing he still loses
The point is that the map is skewed towards hillary.

Thank you for explaining lads

Good better hope and doesn't for your country's sake. Hillary wants war with you.

in the event of 269-269 the house of rep's vote to decide, with each state getting a total of one vote so rep's have to vote in a similar winner-take-all system.
Which means the same states that throw off the balance in the electoral vote are now fucked over, and the small states actually have power.
The Senate chooses the VP.

Say there are three states with equal populations, and one state with a slighter larger population. The larger state has just one more electoral vote than any one of the other states.

Candidate A wins 95% of the vote in two of the smaller states. Candidate B gets 51% of the vote in the other two.

Candidate B wins the electoral college while having less votes.

>the map is skewed towards hillary.

Because the ELECTORATE is skewed towards Hillary

That will be

States don't have dellies in the general election, they have ELECTORS i.e. people chosen by the state that can change their vote on a whim if they so chose.

This:
actually happened in 2000. Bush won the election while having less votes than Gore.

>Record 40% of voters identify Independent
>Skewed towards Hilldog.

Wew!

Its not a popular vote, States go as a whole. Al Gore actually had a higher total number of voters vote for him, than Bush had. Bush still took the election.

She won't get pa

This is false. Outside of two moments when Carson and Carly passed Trump he was at the lead when he walked into the race.

Maybe the debates weren't solely the reason for Jeb's fall and Trump's rise in the polls but Jeb wasn't doing that badly:
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

I have no fucking clue why anyone defends this system. In highschool I asked one of my history teachers, and he told me that it was so smaller states could be better represented. Lol, I don't give a fuck if a small state isn't represented. The president is supposed to represent the American public. Plurality should decide.

She will most likely win. But Trump is at least working to shed his "racist" image but I can see at least a few questions at the debates trying to trap him on that.

"Why did your housing papers appear to denote 'C' for colored tenants, Mr. Trump?"

"Why did your wife say you used to read Hitler's speeches, Mr. Trump?"