Amerisharts, explain yourselves. How can there be such a huge difference between polls in such a short span of time?

Amerisharts, explain yourselves. How can there be such a huge difference between polls in such a short span of time?

Stop believing this kike polls. They're a Jewish tool that is wrong. They all discount voter turnout.

Hillary illness

ABC/Washington Post is ALWAYS the outlier, it's crazy. When Trump was down by 5, ABC/Wash had him down by 15.

>600 voters
>2,500 Voters

>Washington Post Poll
>Legitimate poll

RealClearPolitics throws in the illegitimate polls to skew the averages in favor of HIllary but its failing.

Because the polls are used to match peoples expectations with how they'll try to rig the election

>How can there be such a huge difference between polls in such a short span of time?

This......

The polls violate every rule of statistics. They are only media eyewash.

Or they were, anyway

Different methodologies.

Reminder that the Reuters poll that shows Clinton +1 (Trump +5 if you want to be realistic with turnout) has roughly the following samples:
43% Democrats (Reality: 29%)
36% Republicans (Reality: 26%)
11% Independents (Reality: 42%)
A few percent off since I don't want to do the math a fifth time.
Yet they still show Trump winning.

Independents are 50% Trump, 30% Clinton. Republicans are 80 to 90% Trump. Democrats are the same for Hillary. Put those together, and Trump wins. No need for polls.

some of the polls have really biased samples or only sample in specific places. The ABC/WP poll for example oversampled Democrats by 6 points

They're trying to use polls to gaslight and demoralize us into not voting out of the belief that we truly hold no chance against Hillary

>RealClearPolitics throws in the illegitimate polls to skew the averages in favor of HIllary but its failing.

Wouldn't it make sense the other way around? In order to get more Hilldog supporters on the street, you need to give them a reason. If Hilldog were trailing the Trumpskin, then Hilldog supporters might come out in force.

Because Washpo is owned by a billionaire who hates Trump and is trying to use it as a hammer to attack him

It's not a real poll

ITT people who haven't taken math courses since high school

this

Same thing with the NYT
They're both good newspapers for everything other than politics.

answer this first

is polling meant to gauge opinion, or form it?

LA TIMES is an outlier poll and often the ONLY poll that has Trump ahead while he's losing in all others.

Different turnout projections. The ABC News/Wash Post poll probably assumes turnout will look like it did in 2008.

Trump's actual support margin could be his rally attendance margin. The media gives two shits about facts, their purpose is to make a Hillary victory seem plausible for when she's elected by dead people and electronic voter machine "discrepancies".

>he's losing in all others
Except CNN of course

No one is exactly sure whether demoralizing your enemy by saying "YOU'RE FOREVER BEHIND" or encouraging your own base by saying "YOU DON'T WANT HITLER 2.0 TO WIN DO YOU" is the better strategy

>1 post by this ID

We can read the polling methodologies of both the Washpo and the LA times poll, the Waspo poll heavily oversamples Democrats in order to achieve the result they want

I'll explain.

I worked for a telephone polling firm in Virginia when I was in college.

The problem is that these polls are done different ways...

My firm always did LIKELY voters, who were more to the right than ALL voters, so when we'd poll a town for something like, say, a possible tax referendum vote, we more often came back with "not likely to support" than many of our competitors. If you consider a SPECIAL election's likely voters, then the results skew even more to the right.

So the polling protocol used can make a HUGE difference in the numbers. In Iowa, for instance, Trump is slightly ahead with LIKELY voters and slightly behind with ALL REGISTERED voters.

Well said. I believe this election is entirely about turnout, not about swaying opinion.

Attention (You) dumb nigger:

Polls are run by randomly selecting from pools of all registered voters, and no reputable pollster incorporates registered affiliation. Rather, one of the questions pollsters ask is: What is your party affiliation.

That's right, retard, affiliation is self reported and polls seem to indicate that registered/likely voters are more often reporting themselves as Democrat. This alone is the entire reason UnskewedPolls was wrong by double digits, as was admitted by the proprietor himself.

Of course, rather than learn anything about polling methodology and history, you informed yourself via Sup Forums and insist that everyone else in the world is stupid. Or, to use a common phrase: if you sit down for a game of cards and don't know who the sucker is, it's you.

Oh! And I forgot!

A lot of these polls are tied to LANDLINE NUMBER databases, and that is making many polls all but useless. Who has a landline? Who doesn't? That demographic question alone is important.

Any pollster worth their salt adjusts for this by weighting respondents based on their demographics

Some Swede posted the abc polling method + links. They are interviewing 60% democrats for these polls.
It's one reason why the abc polls are always putting dems ahead.

It's almost like she shat herself and collapsed on live TV after months of the media covering for her.