Electorate map thread

Electorate map thread

Other urls found in this thread:

providencejournal.com/news/20160907/emerson-poll-finds-clintons-lead-over-trump-precariously-thin-in-ri
archive.is/UCMxA
twitter.com/SFWRedditGifs

Beat ya by that much.

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This dead cat bounce still hasn't put him in a safe spot. That hole he dig was far too deep.

This is pretty much my prediction.

Trump will win all these states depending on how much Clinton fucks up.

If he wins New Hampshire as well, he wins the election.

This is what will happen, with PA and NH potentially swapped.

How does a trading term apply to polls? Trump has been moving up before the deplorable's and her lying about her health. This will stick if Trump continues rallying and being presidential. It all started when he visited mexico.

Why is Illinois so liberal? It seems weird that a state between Iowa/Missouri and Indiana always goes blue.

I agree this is a likely outcome. It seems that New Hampshire is the easiest to flip, followed by probably WI, PA, MI.

Some big newspaper just endorsed Gary Johnson, not a good sign :(

>Missouri
>Toss up
sure, jan

He gets one point more from maine. If this scenario happened maine will become gods.

I hate California with every fiber of my being. Please, wise and merciful great Kek, let California vanish into the pacific ocean this very night and take all that liberal scum to the bottom of the sea with it.

Fuck California.

Trump will be guaranteed a victory if he has a strong debate performance and continues his campaigning with his current strategy.
He isn't that good at debating, but if he is able to bring up the CF, Emails, Benghazi, and DNC corruption he is set to win.
Chicago is the location of 99% of populous.

A Maine poll came out today that was very promising. I mean, he would still probably win in a tie scenario, but it'd be much cleaner to just hit 270 with
Maine Magic.

If Iowa goes trump, im content.

He was leading there before the shit that happened this week.

Cook County.

t. disgruntled Illinois citizen

New Hampshire will likely swing red this election, and it feel great.

Too many veteran plates and American flags in front lawns for it to swing dem this time around.

doesnt matter since Hillary will win Texas.

Yeah, and Trump will take California.

RI will flip red. I know it's only 4 damn votes, but still
>providencejournal.com/news/20160907/emerson-poll-finds-clintons-lead-over-trump-precariously-thin-in-ri

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Spoiler alert

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Hes going to win off of Maine.
My digits speak the truth

current polls here, Clintons week of scandals definitely hurt her.

Nevada is definitely going red. And Colorado honestly may go yellow

Official updated Styx-projection.

I think that Trump has a growing chance in Colorado and Virginia.

Virginia is just the slightly more liberal version of North Carolina.

And Colorado used to be more conservative than Nevada, but now that seems to have flipped this election.

According to the poll analyses I've been reading about, 80% of Republicans in Virginia support Trump, compared to 90% of Democrats who support Clinton.

Trump needs to win over the cuckservatives to make this state competitive. I think after the debates, we will see a much closer Virginia.

I'd say the same about Colorado.

>north Carolina redder than south carolina
Now this is shitposting

I at least hope that we see this as the start of the Republican Party fracturing into two or more parties.

Fuck the two-party system.

Can someone explain to me how polls work on Sup Forums?

A few weeks ago they were Jewish shills and rigged, now they are acceptable means of comparison for predictive modeling.

Hole? We ain't even had a debate yet

>last new mexico poll was in may
> recycled into "august"
>cant even see the demos of the poll

lol

Im gonna go with this one. Styx is usually right

Till she strokes out on live TV and Trump ushers in a thousand year reich.

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Let me explain some logic to you. They are weighted with more democrats then they should be. The poll being in Trumps favor means that even with too many democrats in the sample, he's still winning. It's in no way hypocritical to look at a polled that is weighted against you where you are still winning and say wow, he must be winning.

A tie scenario would definitely be a shitshow. Very plausible that one or more electors would defect and vote for some moderate Republican like Paul Ryan or Mitt Romney, opening up the possibility that a Republican House would screw over Trump in their tiebreaker vote. Could definitely destroy the party.

Even with the skewing of demographics, Trump comes out ahead, which means in reality it's even more of a lead than what the polls show.

chicago is 20 percent of illinois population, cook county, which includes chicago, is 41 percent of illinois

They're still rigged, it's just that Trump is now so far ahead now that the effect of the rig is nonexistent now. Imagine how well he's actually doing.

>Ohio and Florida strong red
What did I miss?

Did this line of reasoning work out in other presidential elections?

San diego is based though

I'll have to hide in my bunker for a month if that happens lol

I drafted this today using the most current polls. Trumps Campaign will hinge on NC, mark my words

New polling out today showing Trump up handily in Florida and Ohio.

Also only down by three in Maine, up in Colorado, and up in Nevada. He's still leading huge in Maine's floating electoral district.

they're just leaning at this point, the past four polls have all been for trump with him at a +4/5 lead at the moment.

Previous elections are irrelevant because all viable candidates were establishment and basically just (((roleplaying))) an election.

Trump is not and the (((roleplayers))) are freaking out

The problem is that this is, in many ways, a very unprecedented election. The enthusiasm for Clinton is nowhere near what it was for Obama (him being a liberal messiah cult figure, her being an unlikable she-witch), and many of these models are assuming even better outcomes demographic-wise for Clinton.

It's not happening, especially with Trump's advantage in enthusiasm, party switching numbers, and the enthusiasm gap.

>Trumps Campaign will hinge on NC

Negative. Nevada and New Hampshire are the key states he needs to win aside from the obvious needed wins in Ohio and Florida.

North Carolina is important but far more likely to go red than NV and NH.

And distrust of media, people sick of sjw and pc bullshit, outsider candidate, leaks and meme magic.

I mean advantage in enthusiasm, party switching numbers, and new voter registration. I apologize.

Most realistic map of the current situation coming through

THIS. did you watch MSNBC lately? They spend 20 mins tonight bashing trump over the smallest fucking things

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It makes me sad NY will be forever blue thanks to the city. I wish we could just gut the tax thieves out.

About time CTR showed up

Accurate.

Thanks, CTR. I, too, will ignore five point advantages in swing states. You'd better gray out Colorado, Maine's other three electors, Michigan, Virginia, and Wisconsin, if you want to play that game.

Illinois is in the same boat.

Go back to /r/eddit you faggot.

Not so sure about that. NC is worth more than the two of those combined, however you are correct in that Nevada and New Hampshire could be up for grabs for either party.

>CTR
>Pro-Sanders.

W E W L A D

another faggot who needs to go back to /r/eddit.

His map is accurate based on the situation as it currently stands.

California needs to be split in half desu

NC is worth more but he needs to win all 3 and he could probably ignore NC and still win it at this point. NV and NH are true battlegrounds.

>> Texas pink

Kek shit for brains.

When i voted for Trump in the Tx primary There was a line out the door for the Republican line and 2 people at the Democrat table showing ID

this

i dont think trump can win nh, its way too liberal
wat do?

the only time nh voted red was in 2000 when george rigged the election

Wow you're a statistical genius!

>believing the GWB stole the election meme

No it's not, you fucking blind dipshit.

I don't know whether you're retarded or a liberal shit-eating monkey, but either way, you can't objectively color those states blue that lean Clinton slightly (not even taking into account the collapse and deplorables comment), and keep states that lean Trump slightly grey. That's the very definition of being unfair.

If you wanted to be fair, you'd either color the Trump-leaners one way, or decolor the Clinton leaners. I know that you don't have any interest in being fair, though.

Also, Reddit's a liberal shithole, you'd love it there. It baffles me why you're telling others to go to Reddit.

I will post this image with this filename in every single thread. I cannot wait for the screencap where I get called a shill and its saved and then it turns out close to accurate.

what website is the OP using for his map generation? Doesn't look like 270 to win

Trump stands less than zero chance of losing Maine's floating electoral vote, at least fix that. He's up in the mid double digits.

Real Clear Politics's editable map

Colorado being red. Cmon m8. Its deep blue atm. States that are more likely to flip these days are states like Michigan (+5.6 Clinton as of 9/7, could be closer after the clinton scare)

This is very plausible, give or take 1 EV from Maine. Trump's best hope is to flip NH and get either a tie or win with Maine. ()

I mean, that's my prediction for this election, with New Hampshire being a coin-toss

he did, i dont really mind because the liberal shitheads in the media are pmsing 15 years later
archive.is/UCMxA

Based Styx knows what's up. His predictions are usually pretty accurate.

Latest Reuters poll shows Trump up by 2 in Colorado, and that's pre-collapse and deplorables. It's not nearly as blue as you give it credit for.

ya thats the danger with using the RCP average. Its helpful, but recent polling matters more, especially if its part of a new norm

My prediction

>the current reality is unfair

cry about it faggot. Trump still has work to do.

I think the map in my pic is even more reflective of the current situation, but we'll have a better idea by the end of the week as more polls come out. Trump badly needs NV and NH. But if he could take Rhode Island instead of NH he would still win (less likely).

he is not getting nh
and he doesnt need it, bushey won without it in 2004

>Some big newspaper just endorsed Gary Johnson, not a good sign

New Hampshire-ite here.

It was the Union Leader. It's neocon conservacuck wrag that has a history of deciding Republican primary picks because back in the day it was the main source of local news for NH Republicans. Basically, the owner and editor of the paper transformed into a big shot every four years. Back in 2008 their endorsement pretty much revived John McCain's failing campaign.

Trump did not kiss that ring nearly enough in the primaries, and now he's getting burned.

The UL isn't as relevant as it used to be but it'll have big play with the 50+ crowd, and the publicity might push NH's strong libertarian crowd in Johnson's direction, so it does sting. The good news is that Trump already has very strong support amongst Republicans in the 50+ crowd which definitely reduces the impact. He's saying what all those people have been thinking for years. Anyone who's tuned in enough to pay attention to the endorsement is aware that the newspaper enjoys its role as transient political emperor too much for its own good.

Mine is the strongest confidence interval of all.

>Ignores literally everything that I posted
So, liberal shit-eating monkey it is.

I'm not ignoring it, you're simply objectively wrong.

You guys are delusional if you think her health will impact her support, especially when the debates haven't started yet. She was grilled for hours by reps in the house, trump won't crack her. The deplorable comment will not hurt her, especially with trumpers cold-clocking 69 year old women. She inherited Obama's coaltion and trumps support among normal republicans is shaky. She will win by about 7 points nationally. Thinking otherwise will just make your tears more delicious. I'll leave yall to your safespace

>Claims I'm objectively wrong
>Doesn't elaborate in the slightest
Well, color me convinced!

Maine's other 3 electoral votes could be in play.

A recent poll found Trump training Hillary by only 3 percentage points there.

New Hampshire is typically more conservative than Maine.

I think Gary Johnson's presence may be hurting Trump in NH.

We haven't had recent polling in Pennsylvania. It's usually slightly more liberal than Ohio, so I think he has a decent chance in PA, considering that the last few Ohio polls showed Trump with a decent lead.

Interesting, good information friend.

It already has impacted her support quite significantly in the polls that we have to go off of, though. If you mean long-term, that's one thing, but to claim that there hasn't been any impact is downright laughable.

yo, if she wins you lose too faggot
you are just an useful idiot to her now, as soon as she gets into power she is throwing all of you under the bus (she already turned against about 50% of the voters, you are next boi)

Trump will never win NC you delusional cucks.

Agree with everything you said.

Also, I should have colored Iowa lighter rather than solidly red. I'm pretty confident he'll take Iowa though.

Gary Johnson's "What is Aleppo?" thing should help Trump in NH.