Are there any films that deals with this concept?

Are there any films that deals with this concept?

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en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy
twitter.com/SFWRedditImages

IT'S COMPLETELY RANDOM CHANCE

IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT YOU DO

brief explanation of this concept in the movie 21

You should always change your pick after he opens a losing door.

No it's bullshit

> A Billion doors
> A car behind one, a goat behind the 999999999 other doors
> Showman opens ALL the other doors except one
> "Heh, I probably picked the right one from the start"

You're retarded if you can't grasp this problem.

The math actually plays out if you run the scenarios here. It's unexpected, but it's true. You win 50% of the time you change your pick, and 33% of the time you don't.

I didn't believe it at first either, but when I actually ran through it 50 times each way, lo and behold, you really should change your pick.

the problem is about three doors, leaving two, not a billion doors.

MONTY OPENING THE DOOR GIVES YOU NEW INFO
MONTY ONLY HAS TWO DOORS HE CAN PICK

I TURNED MYSELF INTO A DOOR, MONTY

I'M DOOR RICK!!!!

I just ran a simulation on my computer and it did not work.

Snatch
Blade Runner 2049
Problem Child 2

also pretty much any muder and or mystery where the ending is like "I shoulda stuck with my original hunch." which is actually an opposite to the monty hall problem

To me that just sounds like going into a game of roulette after the ball landed on red 5 times in a row.

Mathematical logic would dictate a rather low chance for 6 times in a row happening so you should pick black right?

the witch has a goat

>not having confidence in your choices

it reduces the chance from 1 billion, it reduces the chance from 3, just much less. retard

you either picked the one with the car or you didnt
fifty fifty mother fuckers

no you autist. in your first choice, you are choosing from 3 doors. you have a 1/3 chance. in your second choice, you are choosing from 2 doors, you have a 1/2 chance. it's really that simple

...

how many lottery tickets have you bought today?

This fucking thing took legit 20 mins to understand even though I read like 10 different explenations

These threads always get to me. They always infuriate me, even though I know it's all bait... Or is it?

but if it's 1/2 the second time, and you don't switch, it's 1/2?

Yes you have half a chance no matter if you change or dont.

The chances changed, they dont give a fuck about what happened before.

Same with roulette, the ball doesnt care, its still 50/50 no matter the previous results.

Well?

The result of the first decision is predetermined and always the same. Your decision has no impact on the outcome. It can be completely discarded from the probability calculations of the """second""" decision.

The second decision is completely isolated from the first and it is therefore 50/50

Now that would be 50/50. The original situation is 2/3 chance of getting the car if you switch.

Actually, i tried a couple of times more and it does work.

The one with the goat. I don't have a garage.

Then you can't program for shit, because I've done a simulation before and you indeed get the result that you should switch.

...

for all of you fucking autists, this example will make it clear how this works.

You have 100 doors, one door has a prize. You pick randomly out of those 100 doors. The chance you pick the right one is 1/100.
Then 98 empty doors open, so you now have 2 doors. Do you switch? ofc because then its 1/2. this is elementary school stuff

I prefer movies dealing with pic related.

2

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

>asks you to pick a NEW DOOR
there's literally only one option

you failed the autism test

The problem is not about 3 doors, you idiot.
3 is the variable in this problem.

brainlets get out

The dullest franchise has some witches

IT 2017

it would only work that way if you were betting on the sequence of six events, but you're not, you're betting on a singular event

Maybe you picked the right 1 at the beginning?

>hurr durr you will never pick the right door out of chance from the start between 3 so you should ALWAYS change
>this is what brainlets actually believe

>Playing a game where you can only win 50% of the time
Yeah no thanks

how do you figure?

No. Each individual try has a 50 percent chance of landing on red, independent of previous or future rolls. While it is very unlikely to roll 6 reds in a row, if you have rolled 5 reds your chance of rolling a sixth is still 50 percent.

>Not wanting the goat
The trick is to pick the door the host opened.

>
>To me that just sounds like going into a game of roulette after the ball landed on red 5 times in a row.
>Mathematical logic would dictate a rather low chance for 6 times in a row happening so you should pick black right?

It doesn't even remotely true.
Consider the OP example as "after you choose the door, the showrunner offers you to open all the other doors and keep your door shut".

This is what essentially happens, only in this case all but one of the other doors are open.

>the absolute state of american education system

If your gameplan is to stick with the original choice then you have to get it right the first time which is 1/3. If your plan is to switch then you want to pick a goat first. If you pick a goat, the other is revealed and what's left is the car.

No, retard, you will pick the wrong door more often than not.

It's not 1/2 if you switch you tard, it's 99/100

What if the host says under no circumstance he will ever open your door?
It's 50/50 boys.

Did you really ignore other post i made just text stroke your ego, retard?

>The host then rearranges the doors so you don't know which door you picked
>do you switch

hurr how the fuck can I switch when I don't even know what door I fucking picked now?

If it spins at the rotors speed? No it would lose its tail or wheels and crash.

I made it before I saw your follow up.