So what films are currently looking like big winners this coming award season?

So what films are currently looking like big winners this coming award season?

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Dunkirk, believe

Wonder Woman

hearing lots of hype over Three Billboards, Darkest Hour will definitely get a best actor nom

Dunkirk
A Ghost Story
The Killing Of A Sacred Deer
Okja
Get Out

The one about fish fucking

But will Oldman finally win?

The Shape of Water is looking like a good bet for a ton of noms.

>lot's of prosthetic and makeup to play a famous figure like Churchill during ww2
yes

>Blade Runner will get ignored as fuck

Sam Rockwell best supporting actor nomination for Three Billboards

>blade runner: 2049
best picture
best cinematography
best actor
best costume design

call it

Get Out might get nominated for best screenplay.
Dunkirk might get nom'd for best cinematography

The rest have no chance

blade runner won't be nominated for best picture, get out and wonder woman have a better chance

right now dunkirk, three billboards and darkest hour is frontrunners

She'll be becoming the youngest actress to be nominated three times, beating out Lawrence (thankfully). Don't think she's a frontrunner to win unless Lady Bird ends up big at the box office or something.

Blade Runner is only getting technical award noms. Academy hates sci-fi and it wasn't some huge box office thing that might overcome that.

That gay pedo romance movie

Hope she wins, she’s a qt

Best picture, probably best actress

Glad she successfully made the comeback after that slump a few years ago, looked like she was gonna drop off the map entirely.

Best picture:
>Blade Runner
>Three Billboards
>Phantom Threads
>Wind River
>Molly's Game
>Darkest Hour
>Lady Bird
>The Disaster Artist

Thoughts?

No way. Cinematography nomination is probably a given, not at all sure that it'll win. Other than that maybe production design, vfx or technical sound nominations.

Blade Runner a long shot. I'd say Get Out is more likely.

>Reminder Planet of the Apes will get cucked for the best visual effects oscar for the third time

I'm willing to bet good money Wonder Woman will be the first capeshit film to get a Best Picture nom.

Everything that has happened this year has paved the way for that kind of BS decision.

Get Out for screenplay, probably, but not best picture

As great as it looked, and as robbed as Deakins has been, the cinematography section is actually stacked to fuck this year so it's very possible Blade Runner won't win. It'll get a nom however.

What about The Florida Project?

A24 have Lady Bird and The Florida Project as their films this year. Lady Bird is lighter than Moonlight was but I think it might do well.

Who's the qt?

Blade Runner
>released around awards season
>by a veteran director with several best picture nominations and a lot of clout
>starring A-lister Ryan Gosling with supporting actor A-lister Jared Leto
>Produced by Ridley Scott

Get Out
>released at the start of the year, already out of people's minds
>unestablished director
>no one particularly famous in the cast

Do you know anything about how these awards shows work? Get Out might have a shot solely because there haven't been many good black films released this year. But Blade Runner is pretty much a certainty

>that slump a few years ago
harvey tried but couldn't finish her

Blade Runner:
>Box office failure

Get Out:
>Giant box office success

>Blade Runner is pretty much a certainty for Best Picture
Jesus you guys are delusional

BR I see that as a very very far away possibility
Phantom has yet to come out (not a single review published)
Wind River is impossible to happen (TWC)
The other ones look like a decent bet.

You act like that means anything.
Reminder, none of the Avengers have won shit.
Meanwhile, films like The Girl With The Dragon Tatoo and Jobs still do great in awards season despite not doing great box officewise
see above
I would bet money it gets nominated for best picture

Blade Runner has long fallen out of oscar hype, timing may not matter since it was released a lot earlier in the award season while a slew of new oscarbait have taken a lot of thunder (three billboards, call me by your name, florida project, lady bird), it's going to get lost. The train is all on Dunkirk as the big blockbuster to nominate.

The Academy inducted a lot more minorties who will nominate at least one black film to round out the group so blackies don't riot

Get Out was a massive success story and very timely. It'll do very well.

Moonlight didn't have an A List director or cast.

>You act like that means anything.
You act like "A famous cast and veteran director" means anything.

mother!

nope!

Okay, everyone saying Get Out is clearly gonna do well, name one other non-animated film that was released in the first 3 months of the year theatrically and was nominated for best picture in the last 10 years
Maybe I'm wrong, but I can't think of a single instance

This little potato's movie just did $93.9k pta, I think Lady Bird is a top 5 BP nom now.

Good for her. She deserves it.

>You act like "A famous cast and veteran director" means anything.
Have you literally ever watched the oscars? It's nepotism the circle-jerk.
Jesus christ what the fuck?

Oh nominated. Sure, but even then I can't see it being that likely.
Crash was released in May, I have no idea how to easily check release dates of Oscar winners.

Ok. How many Oscars has Ridley Scott won in his 40 year career? When was the last one?

explain moonlight then. fag.

And yes I'm aware he didn't direct 2049, I'm using him as an example of a "veteran" director with a lot of big name films.

I don't think it's there for the win but It has black people and Detroit failed so ...

About the only thing going against it is that it's a horror film and released early in the year (and thus not intended to be an "awards films"), otherwise I think it's a pretty unique circumstance that isn't gonna be predicted by some basic model.
I think it'll do well in terms of noms during the season.

Directors have their time in the spotlight. Villenueve is currently hot
Also, Ridley was literally nominated for best picture with the fucking Martian
If that doesn't prove my point...

What if both Get Out and Blade Runner get Best Picture noms?

On top of that:

Blade Runner
>cyberpunk sci-fi with zero appeal to anyone but nerds
>can easily be seen as a misogynistic male fantasy

Get Out
>black actor
>black director

Fucking Interstellar had infinitely wider appeal and that still only got technical nominations.

Who gives a shit? It'll get lower ratings than the previous year and continue its slide into irrelevancy.


Affirmative action award after blacks complained about "oscarssowhite" and demanded guaranteed token nominations and awards.

>Ridley Scott
>nominated for an Oscar for making the Martian literally for the Oscars before last
Are you fucking retarded?

I've started capping all the people who are certain that Bladerunner won't be nominated. Can't wait for everyone to pretend they always knew it was obviously gonna get nominated

>starts with "who cares!?"
>continues with very specific whining about the ceremony

You care apparently.

I never said I was certain, idiot. I said it's far from guaranteed, it's not a frontrunner for it.

>moonlight
Released in awards season, the year after #oscarssowhite
Not hard, dipshit

It's literally a certainty that it will be nominated. Along with Phantom Threads and Darkest Hour

>>It's literally a certainty that it will be nominated
No it isn't. It's a possibility, but that's all.

How come comedies never win anything ? It´s always "muh deep you dont understand" shit.

Most comedies are shit

What would rile Sup Forums the most if it won?

I'm thinking Wonder Woman.

Willem will at least get a nomination for Florida Project, possibly a win. I could see it showing up in best picture/screenplay, possibly best actress if they decide to do the kid nominee thing again, since it was a good performance.

Everyone thinking Get Out has a chance at anything beyond maybe a best screenplay nomination are being ridiculous and spend too much time on this site. And much as I loved Blade Runner, I'd be surprised to see it in any non-technical categories. Not impossible, but I'd say it's unlikely.

I could see Harry Dean getting a posthumous best actor nomination for Lucky.

When Harry Met Sally got a best screenplay nomination.
Modern comedy movies have very little substance.

cheap laugh comedies don't do well. But comedies like Annie Hall, Grand Budapest etc usually get nommed.

Certain types of comedies don't do well. They just happen to be the most common type.

>spend too much time on this site
on this site? Which is full of racists spamming day?

>Everyone thinking Get Out has a chance at anything beyond maybe a best screenplay nomination are being ridiculous and spend too much time on this site
Thank you
>And much as I loved Blade Runner, I'd be surprised to see it in any non-technical categories. Not impossible, but I'd say it's unlikely.
Arrival was nominated for best picture in a much stronger year and it really rattled normies' cages. Bladerunner is much better received critically and easier to understand and there have been very few good films released this year (from Hollywood).

Which movie has the most gay, black trannies in it?

Arrival was a box office success so it didn't rattle "normies" cages that badly dude.

>>blade runner: 2049
>best picture
>best cinematography
>best actor
>best costume design
>call it
Never. Oscars are about politics....They have very specific agendas...
- Holocaust
- Slavery
- LGBT
- Biopics...

That's the type of shit they always reward

It's gonna be one out of these
1. The Post
2. Lady Bird
3. Three Billboards

Three female-focused movies that deal with empowerment in a year filled with sexual allegations, with Dunkirk steamrolling everything else gravity style.

Lady Bird will do well but it's too lighthearted to win the big one. Saoirse might have a shot though.

boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=arrival2016.htm
Arrival: $203m
boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=bladerunnersequel.htm
Blade Runner: $240m

Do you read anything you pretend to be an expert on or just repeat what you hear on Sup Forums?

>too lighthearted
Reactions from indicate something different. Maybe there's more meat in there.

Production Budget: $47 million
Box Office: $203 million

Production Budget: $150 million
Box Office: $239 million

Do you understand what "success" means?

I just meant that it would come second to a heavier film like Three Billboards.

I genuinely have no fucking idea who's taking Picture this year.

Sony gonna be pushing hard for Call me By Your Name, A24's got The Florida Project as a contender, Fox will be gunning for Three Billboards, but the Academy could always go for a schlocky Biopic like Darkest Hour and the only Mainstream hit with pedigree this year was Dunkirk.

Field's still wide open at this point IMO

>normies factor in production budget when deciding how much they liked a film
Are you gonna try moving the goalposts again?

Boyhood started at Sundance in January
Grand Budapest Hotel started Feb/March

Besides all this Get Out is black and a financial success

I won't say for sure it will be nominated but it has a much better shot than Blade Runner

It wasn't that much stronger of a year, it was pretty much a three way horse between Moonlight, Manchester and La La Land as locks, a lot of things could have fit into that after. I mean the fact that Hidden Figures or even Hacksaw Ridge (not saying it was bad but they even let Gibson get one in) was nominated speaks volume on the outside contenders.

In this year Blade Runner right now is an outside shot, here are the films that it has to leap over in terms of latest buzz

Dunkirk
Darkest Hour
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards
Lady Bird
Call Me By Your Name
Florida Project
Mudbound
Get Out
Battle of the Sexes
I, Tonya


and also phantom thread and greatest showman haven't even entered the discussion yet

It's not impossible for Blade Runner to sneak in but its very unlikely, again I give it Get Out a better chance cause of the oscarsowhite and the new makeup of the academy they recently inducted

SPC yes, call me by your name
A24 lady bird
FSL del taco
and those distributors can easily push 2

>Boyhood started at Sundance in January
>Grand Budapest Hotel started Feb/March
I clearly said theatrical release, not film festival release.

A24 isn't that big of a producer/distributor and I can't see them not putting the majority of their campaign budget behind Florida Project.

It's a shame because they had a lot of hits this year so a couple out of Good Time/Disaster Artist/Lady Bird are gonna get ignored almost completely even though they're all deserving of consideration.

lol at this random changing of the subject to something that was never said

Boyhood had a gross of 50 million dude, 20 mil domestically

Most of the hype it built was around Sundance and January

If anything its wide release hurt it as the hype cooled off a lot.

TGBH was theatrical, it was limited the first weeks but expanded immediately

A24's main film is Lady Bird, they'll push that most especially as it just came out in limited release and did 92k per theater.

Not with the current numbers, Lady Bird just demolished Florida P this weekend

Lady Bird also has an easy hook, it probably will do pretty well in wide release. Florida is a lot more niche and a lot heavier.

>Arrival opening: 24m
>Total domestic gross: 100m

>BR opening: 32m
>Total domestic gross: 85m

hmm

You're right, that's my bad. Fair enough.
Still, GBH had a renowned director and cast. Get Out's a possible nomination, but I'd be surprised

I think it'll get a Picture and Screenplay nom. It won't be in the running to win either but it'll be there.

Interesting. I'll admit I hadn't checked Box Office numbers yet, but that makes sense.

I guess I just kind of assumed a24 would put more behind FLP because it seems like more of an "Best Picture" movie.

I liked Lady Bird more, but FLP is darker and has way harder hitting social commentary etc.


Also I'm gonna punch a wall if Margot Robbie somehow edges out Saoirse Ronan/Frances McDormand/Sally Hawkins

How right you are. The academy's gonna see that 15m discrepancy and disqualify one of the highest rated hollywood films of the year because of it.

Our guy James McAvoy will get a nomination for best actor in a leading role for Split.

Wonder Woman will win zero Oscars.

Jordan Peele will be nominated for best director because they need a black nominee.

>Sup Forums has people actually chatting about cinema and not ebin memes

the fuck is happenin?