Look for 'The Last Jedi' to Become 2017's Highest Grossing Release Over New Year's Frame

B-But Sup Forums told me TLJ is a flop!

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>constant moving of the goalposts
>it'll make 1.9 billion
>conservatively we think it'll make 1.6 billion
>it'll make 1.4 billion
>it'll break even
>hey, it'll at least beat Beauty and the Beast and be the top-grossing film of the year...?

this.
shills are acting like you couldn't put "Star Wars" on a turd and gross a billion before you run the franchise into the ground.

It has some competition...
Some #LITTY competition.

It will finish doing less than 80 percent of the business The Force Awakens has. It holds the biggest second week drop off in dollars grossed of all time, more than 150 million dollars.

There is a very real possibility it does over 500 million dollars less than The Force Awakens.

Its got the fans in an uproar, too. The residual damage to the franchise will be immense.

>DISNEYSHILL

hum sweaty didn't you know that Disney predicted 30bn in sales and now it only looks like it'll make 1.5 bb? A flop

It's going to finish around $1.2 billion.

...

>muh russia

jesus fucking christ you faggots are like a parody of yourselves

1.9

Other problems:

"Terr me, mouse-u man. Why we-a pay-a you so much fo' da light to pray Stah Wahs when no one go see it?! Fuck-a you. You give us bettah deal next time!"

A real case of weasel words because this has been the worst year for Hollywood financially in 25 years - ever since records began, if you adjust for inflation. The highest-grossing film currently is Disney's Beauty and the Beast, which took a relatively tame $1.26 billion worldwide.

For reference, in 2013 Disney scored $1.27 billion off Frozen, and $1.21 billion off Iron Man 3 alone.

underperforming (which it objectively is) =/= flop

>falling for a clearly hyperbolic number

Better a faggot shill than a faggot tist

See you bois in 4 weeks

The standard for Disney sequels is to not lose hundreds of millions of dollars more than the one that came before it. Disney alone produced two capeshits this year that both did more money than the movies that came before them, Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 2 and Thor: Ragnarok. Sequels "always losing money" is objectively false, its antiquated Mousefag thinking.

>By Sunday evening
Wait what. It's gonna go from $900 million to 1.2 billion in 3 days?

I'm more interested to see how much the next movie will make after this backlash.

...

It's the weekend...

It's Star Wars. The brand alone probably made a billion. Ofcourse then can only go on for so long. I bet the Han Solo movie will either be the last gasp for air or fail completely. People will probably watch IX for the completion of the story, but that will be the end of Star Wars if nothing changes.

Just double that and it hits the target

When the movie comes out in the turd world, China and other hellholes expect it to hit at least 1.5 bil

>Ofcourse then can
*that

wishful thinking

>He also expects the latest Avengers installment to bring in $1.3 billion
Is he retarded? No way that won't clear the record from the first movie

With a franchise this large it might as well be the same thing. Disney'll make their production and marketing costs back but there's going to be:

>Furious shareholders and investors demanding to know why their portfolios aren't paying out due to the film earning $1.2 billion instead of the promised $1.9 billion, a $700,000,000 difference
>Pissed-off theatre chains who will never let the mouse strongarm them into such a laughably unfavourable distribution deal ever again
>Toy sales circling the gutter, which will leave them having to deal with more pissed-off investors, pissed-off retail chains and pissed-off toy manufacturers, all likely leading to them being in an unfavourable position for renegotiating future contracts
>A divided core audience many of whom seem to be done with the franchise for good (currently tracking at a likely 65% audience retention falloff for Soylo and Episode IX)

They'll put a brave face on things and try to spin the film's takings as positively as possible in the press to avoid panicking their shareholders and investors, but really this is a terrible fuckup on every level.

China is from the pre-sales and other reporting totally rejecting the movie. The Force Awakens only did 125 million in China, Rogue One did under 75 million and this one might do less than 50 million. Ching Chong will not be bailing out the ding dongs. I don't think this movie hits 1.5 million.

Wow, if that ends up happening the drop in China will be far worse for the Mouse than the U.S. drop. They can't afford to tarnish the brand there, China is the emerging market.

>rottentomatoes and box office numbers reflect the quality of a moobie

Where was that implied, binch

well the Last Jedi is a shitty movie so

Box office numbers do not reflect the quality of a movie, but bad box office numbers can dictate the death of trends we'd rather not see.

Same publication said BVS flopped for pulling in the same numbers

Box Office Mojo?
I mean, there's nothing in that article's title saying that TLJ's gross is necessarily *good* for Disney, just that it's likely going to be the highest grossing film of the year.
A film can still hold that honor and be considered to have underperformed, as TLJ is.

Context matters. Disney's lowball estimate for this movie was $1.9 billion. Force Awakens made $2.2 billion. This movie will be lucky to make $1.2 billion, which is barely over half what Force Awakens made and almost 3/4 of a billion dollars less than what Disney expected even in their lowest projections.

This is the company that fired Joss Whedon because Avengers 2 made $100 million less than Avengers 1. They dropped the Narnia series outright because Prince Caspian made $200m less than The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe (Fox picked up the distribution rights for the third movie). A fucking Star Wars movie just had a $700 million dropoff from its predecessor and is barely outselling a spinoff with a cast of total nobodies.

This was the return of Luke Skywalker and the posthumous swan song for Princess Leia. People speculate that the death of Heath Ledger may have helped The Dark Knight at the box office, so where was that swell of support for The Last Jedi? The movie was so bad that the fans weren't even willing to look past it just to honor the memory of Carrie Fisher.

If you don't think heads are going to roll over this movie, you are sorely mistaken. At this point Disney is just waiting for the final box office returns for Han Solo before they fire Kathleen Kennedy. God only knows how bad she'll fuck up Indiana Jones.

Tfw boycotting TLJ but can't stop reading about its box office performance on multiple sites and Sup Forums. This is a disease.

>$200 m budget
>$400 m marketing
>studio gets ~60% of total box office

That means TLJ needs $1billion in order to break even

FLOP

And the next movie is fucking Han Solo.

I think there's a very real chance that film underperforms.

How long until South Park does a bit about Kathleen Kennedy and Mickey Mouse raping Luke Skywalker like when they had Spielberg and Lucas raping Indy?

Now is the perfect time to do a followup of that episode. It's topical and pretty much everyone knows by now that The Last Jedi is a piece of shit.

A Star Wars movie is feeling the heat from a direct to Netflix tv movie directed by the same guy who did the Academy Award Winning Suicide Squad and written by Max Landis, and from a Jumanji remake.

Not even getting in the abysmal drop from TFA, just think about what I just said. Let that sink in

They fired Whedon because he's a repulsive manchild. Age of Ultron was a mess behind the scenes.

I am sure we will be hearing similar stories about Rian Johnson going forward. Egotistical hacks are rarely pleasant to work with.

Really though, looking at what Whedon did to Justice League I think Disney was well within reason to fire him. It's too bad that Warner Bros. was desperate enough to not ask questions about why Disney didn't want him anymore.

Is it though?
11 million people watched Bright.

For comparison, NCIS, in its 15th season, averages a little over 11 million people per week.

Nearly 50 million people have bought a ticket for TLJ in the U.S., so far.

So it's going to make 371 mil over the next 3 days? I highly doubt that

>Gonna pass 1 billion this weekend

They mean American gross only.

Beauty and the Beast had just over $500,000,000, TLJ's sitting at around $445,000,000

Rian doesn't come close as dickheaded as Joss. If they drop him it won't be because of BTS drama like with Whedon.

WB fucked up real good with JL. Hire a manchild to reshoot your film, 100m down the drain removing moustaches and adding retarded one liners. People at WB have had to lost their jobs over this. The most retarded move in cinema history that everyone advised against.

Warner Bros. sold out and they got punished for it, just like Disney is getting punished for The Last Jedi. Marvel fanboys were always going to mock DC's movies because they're brand loyalists. They still mocked Justice League even though Whedon re-shot pretty much the whole thing, and the people who actually liked Snyder's superhero movies were turned off because it felt like an imitation Marvel movie. It's a classic example of abandoning the audience you have to pursue the one you think you deserve, and Disney did the same thing with Star Wars.

I find it hilarious how Marvel fanboys will hate DC even when they make Marvel movies. WB idiots really thought they could just sell out like that. Marvel fanboys will remain fanboys to Marvel and now DC is dead. Ruined by executive incompetence of wanting to ape the MCU.

It's tracking about 40% above R1. So expect it to end on 1.4-1.5 billion. Which is decent enough.

I’m-fucking-believeable

Wrong Disney will hold onto the franchise for a number of years, after the Boba spin off, Lando spin off, Jango spinoff, clone commando spin off, etc. and do an Old Republic trilogy

There's still hope that we might get another Wonder Woman movie since that franchise was a bright spot for Warner Bros, however the future of DC's extended universe project is on life support right now. Warner Bros. might be willing to try one more time but if they don't get it right, it's over.

The real danger is that Warner Bros. is getting such mixed messages. If you really look at things in perspective, the DC fans are saying they want dark, mature, and mythic storytelling, but Warner Bros. might be hearing that Justice League failed because it wasn't funny and campy enough even after the Whedon reshoots. They're either going to backpedal to something more tonally in line with Man of Steel and Wonder Woman for their next movie, or they're going to double down on Whedon and try even harder to be like Marvel.

If Snyder truly is in the dog house and there's no convincing Warner Bros. to give him another chance, it will probably come down to either Patty Jenkins or George Miller being put in the captain's chair for the DC franchise going forward, if Warner Bros. wants to do the smart thing.

Carrie died a while ago where as Heath died close to or just after release IIRC which makes all the difference, oh and TDK was universally enjoyed, word of mouth is powerful

>There's still hope that we might get another Wonder Woman movie
Pretty sure Wonder Woman 2 has already been in preproduction for half a year.

>is barely outselling a spinoff with a cast of total nobodies.
Is this referring to Jumanji? How are The Rock, Kevin Hart, and Jack Black "total nobodies"?

>y-y-y-y-y-y-you're just moving goalpoasts!

>The critics liking Jumanji is okay because Jumanji is not Star Wars but the critics liking Star Wars is not okay

I doubt they'll go down the Whedon path. Last I heard Whedon was off Batgirl and Geoff Johns and Jon Berg were both fired for fucking JL up so hard.

DC will probably do the smart thing and go back to standalone trilogies instead. A formula they should never have walked away from. Snyder should have had his Superman trilogy in peace without studio demands to turn his films into Avengers. They probably realize now the whole venture was a mistake. I mean it doesn't take Einstein to know that Batman only works in Gotham. He's the reason why DC can never become MCU.

>Carrie died a while ago where as Heath died close to or just after release IIRC which makes all the difference,

Even so, the movie brought her death back into the public spotlight and got everyone reminiscing about her leading up to the release. It was her last role and that kind of thing has a galvanizing effect even several months to a year later. If a movie is solid that thing only helps.

>oh and TDK was universally enjoyed, word of mouth is powerful

Of course. TDK was an excellent movie, and Last Jedi is shit, which is the point I am trying to make. Ledger's death made the fans rally around the movie and push for him to get an Oscar nomination. Prior to the Last Jedi's release there was Oscar buzz about Carrie Fisher's performance but any fan who's seen the movie can tell you that it was all bullshit. This was not her best work, not only because she was fucking dying and you can see death on her face, but also she spends half the movie in a damn coma and to the point of being an extended cameo. Not to mention the now infamous "Mary Poppins" scene that took the audience right out of the movie, and it's shameful that she has to have that embarrassing scene associated with her now that she's dead.

The Last Jedi is the inverse of The Dark Knight. This was not a movie worthy of being remembered as an actor's final performance. If the fans did rally around her death at all, it was not even close enough to compensate for the backlash.

I was talking about Rogue One. Jumanji is doing fine and I am going to see it soon.

Would love to see a Lando spinoff just because Glover seems to care so much about the role.

Rogue One you dickhead

Yeah, I'm actually a little bit surprised at how well Jumanji is doing. Thought it was going to flop, but will probably end up with around $200 mill U.S.

Actually no, Wonderwell will be her last role.

no need to be rude senpai

It's all relative.

>it was following up a 2 billion dollar movie
>it opened with 220 million.
>it's Christmas holidays

With good word of mouth and the fact that it's Christmas, it could have gone anywhere from 1.5b to 1.9b based on these facts.

But it seems like it will score between 1.2-1.3. I don't think it has any chance of 1.4.

So yeah, bad word of mouth shaved a couple of hundred millon off it, plus damaged the brand a bit for future installments

Good. As a massive comic book faggot I thought all these capeshit movies were neat, up until about Iron Man 3. Now I just want capeshit to die for good.

I think the final numbers will be 650 domestic and 620 overseas .

The one's gonna be fucked in the ass will be Solo and Episode IX. Shit will be BvS to JL scenario all over again.

No one ever said it was a flop. The prequels weren't a flop either. We just said that TLJ was bad. Everyone and their mother has paid money to see it. There's no denying that. We just wish we hadn't.

Why don't you watch actual GOOD comic book movies like Atomic Blonde.

>Iron Man 3
Same here desu. I think this was the turning point where all the kids who had grown up awed by X-Men and Spider-Man and gotten all hyped for The Avengers finally grew out of it and the new manufactured normie "nerd" crowd took over the fandom.

Atomic Blonde was ass, user.
>dude member the 80s lmao
>dude check out this long take lmao
The whole movie is just references and lifeless action scenes. Baka.

This movie opened higher than Rogue one but it's dropping faster percentage wise. That indicates mixed word of mouth.

And Solo and Rogue One weren’t?

This

Why do you 90s born kids get so butthurt about the 80s? Suck my dick.

Rogue One definitely underperformed, especially in China. Not to the degree that TLJ is, though.

Solo will flop big league.

Just saw this post on the front page gonna chime in with some advice, as someone who saw the first of the new trilogy and just decided to tap out of Star Wars (all disney movies after Thor 3 sucked), the shitposting is just as fun without having seen it and i feel pretty free not having seen it, i'm angry but not enthralled anymore.

Or atleast pay for a ticket to some indieshit then go to the Star Wars showing that just started.

No one's getting butthurt about the 80s. Any film that engages in "member this" nostalgia as heavily as Atomic Blonde did is anti-art trash. Blame Forrest Gump for setting the trend.

t. lived through the entire 80s

>all disney movies after Thor 3 sucked
Thor 3 just came out you idiot.

Episode IX could be the best Star Wars movie ever made but it will never be able to make anywhere near Force Awakens' box office, because it's following the failure of The Last Jedi, and probably Han Solo. Bad sentiment towards a franchise rolls over from one movie to the next even if improvements are made.

Disney fucked themselves with this movie. And to put this in the perspective of a transmedia franchise, this is not the first failed launch for a major Star Wars release this year-- the first was Battlefront 2 only a month earlier. These back-to-back failures compounded each other. Battlefront 2 was so bad that it soured the ground for The Last Jedi's release, and The Last Jedi was so bad that it killed any hope that EA may have had of turning things around for their failing video game.

How ironic would it be if EA decided to drop the Star Wars license after The Last Jedi? Both the game and the movie would have bombed independently of each other, but that negative synergy has created a clusterfuck that only two of the world's biggest entertainment giants could have been responsible for. Disney and EA truly deserve each other.

Oh absolutely but I was talking about the behind the scenes stuff. I gather Rogue One had massive reshoots and Solo has been, well, Solo.

>anti-art
God shut up with your dumbass buzzwords. What the fuck are your top ten films?

boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=roguevforce.htm

holy fuck rogue and force awakens ran 17 weeks, jesus christ

Yeah, i swore off Star Wars, because TFA sucked, then subsequently all Disney movies after a string of disappointments culminating with Thor 3.

"muh 80s" is played out af, user. Shit's tiresome, Stranger Things was the final nail in the coffin, it's time to move on.

>be if EA decided to drop the Star Wars license after The Last Jedi?

Never gonna happen. It's fun to dream though.

>Episode IX could be the best Star Wars movie ever made
JJ Abrams is directing, therefore it cannot be.

>af
SHUT UP. FUCK.

Sans Incredibles 2 assuming the buzz is good**

You want to measure dicks? OK then.
1. Пиcьмa мёpтвoгo чeлoвeкa (1986, Lopushansky)
2. Un condamné à mort s'est échappé (1956, Bresson)
3. Guns of The Trees (1961, Mekas)
4. Love Streams (1984, Cassavetes)
5. 牯嶺街少年殺人事件 (1991, Yang)
6. Duelle (1976, Rivette)
7. Alice in den Städten (1974, Wenders)
8. Le Rayon Vert (1986, Rohmer)
9. Սայաթ-Նովա (1968, Parajanov)
10. Mauvais Sang (1986, Carax)

> Not even the best Rivette in your top 10.

Shame

can't wait for the return of the Incestibles desu desu

>all 80s or earlier
>claims the 80s is bad
Checkmate.

can you speak even one of those non-english languages?

>spend 200 million on production
>minimum 500 million in advertising
>2 years investment time
>still have not made a billion

I would be worried if I was Disney. They are not giving Ryan anymore movies.

>he thinks celine and out 1 are best rivette
Baka. Story of Marie and Julien is number 2 .

For some reason Box Office Mojo is hesitant to mention just how much worse TLJ is doing in comparison to TFA. At least in the articles I've read on the site.

I'm not saying the guy who writes them is a Disney shill (I don't believe he is) but I will say that when Ghostbusters 2016 came out he was trying to say the negative fan reaction didn't mean anything and it would have the same legs as Paul Feig/Melissa McCarthys previous movies even though they were much lower budgeted R rated comedies and nobody would honestly think that unless they were deluded. Also when (Bad) Neighbors 2 came out and audience scores were low he was trying to say the great reviews feminist film critics were giving it and the addition of Chloe Moretz to the cast would mean that film would be a success. Again you'd have to be retarded or in damage control to think either was true.

I hated this guy from back when he wrote for RopeOfSilicon though so maybe I'm biased.