Damn Trump is getting BTFO left and right

Damn Trump is getting BTFO left and right

What's his game plan now? Should he just drop out now and focus on TrumpTV

Other urls found in this thread:

politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president
twitter.com/SFWRedditImages

hello

If the polls were accurate we would of had a president Dewey

Do I hear "Slide" by the GooGoo Dolls?

Remember when polls got it right on brexit?

Me neither.

But they did, user. The week before it happened.

But that was a close election

why do british people lie about the brexit polling?

was there some thread a while ago where you all decided that brexit was "always polling at 70% leave"?

because that is absolutely not how it happened. All the way until an HOUR before the vote, CNN (in the US) and BBC were saying that it was an obvious win for remain, that there was no chance at all for leave happening.

i remember staying up watching all the votes come in, and seeing how much of a lie it was. it is my biggest pet peeve that brits have tried to erase history like this, to make it a null point in this election.

Shitty argument.
The polls are accurate more often than not.

Shitty argument. The polls are trending toward Trump.

I know this is a bait slide thread, but I'll give you one chance to make a thoughtful, logical, rational point. If you squeeze out another unintelligent turd, I won't bother to reply.

The polls had Brexit ahead a week before and they were at par on the day of. The polls were extremely accurate. Polls continually get more accurate as we have had many improvements in statistical literacy, sampling methods, outright ability to collect polls, and number and diversity of polls. Based on the variation in the polls right now, Trump actually has a decent chance of winning.

Some of them outright lie because they are lying propagandists. Most of them lie because they remember polling low for most of the time, so when they think about the past polls, that is in their memory. This is simply statistical illiteracy. Obviously, you have to consider the most recent polls to gauge the accuracy of polls. Because other people repeat the lie, they aren't inclined to actually check because most people simply don't think critically about information if it coincides with their biases.

Fuuuugg

No it's a real poll

Explain polling

nice slide thread faggot

He has already won florida
Lead yesterday was 6k today it is 11k probably jump a bit this morning

I check these daily, if you look at sampling, they've got Democrats plugged in at +10% on average. If you account for voter registration from 2012 to 2016, in accordance to Republicans and Democrats, you'll see that these polls are actually mischievous.

Too bad Podesta was caught telling people to oversample some parts of the population

I haven't taken stats and probability yet so I have no idea what you are saying

What I'm saying is: Think for yourself, dummy.

What am I missing here?

according to this it seems like hes' losing

You are a complete an utter moron. That was for internal polling. No one would see those polls. They were trying to get accurate information for themselves. Q: how can oversampling a demographic get more accurate data?

Wow, you just proved his point. You are retarded.

Ahh. I'm a numbers guy so this will be hard

...

Whelp, time for old Drumpf to drop out, you had a bad run.

I for one hope Jeb steps up to the plate, he could easily BTFO Hillary

Democrat votes

371,381+631,686 = 1,003,067

Republican votes
677,920+336,896 = 1,014,816

11 k lead for trump

Non returned ballots don't count unless they are sent in

Let's say for 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012 that the split between votes was 35% republican, 35% democrats, and 30% independents (just example numbers) and asked them who they'll vote for

These polls would be saying with these example numbers that the expected voters are 30% republicans and 40% democrats and 30% independents to create a skewed estimate. They're assuming people are not only going to be making sure to show up as much as they did for Barack Obama in 2008, but EXCEED that level of excitement/voting

What? Do you know what internal polling is? It's their own information that they use to make decisions. They want that information to be accurate. Do you think they oversampled and didn't adjust the weight of those samples so that they can just confuse themselves?

It cant. It shows the systemic response bias violating the markov assumptions making the polls useless.

But you're wrong. You weight the it down if you want aggregate statistics. In practice, this works very well and is used all the time to get better precision on demographics they are interested in. But I guess they were just trying to confuse themselves by basing their decisions on crappy analysis.

do you all need to be reminded?

There are more registered Democrats in the United States than Republicans.

How often are ballots not returned?

By a margin of 3-4%, and the margin is actually going down, not up, as more and more people are identifying as independents.

The simple fact that none of these fantasy polls agree makes this a shit show

politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president

I hate you so much

There was a total of about 2 people who thought Romney was going to win.

I can't wait to see the reaction on this board when Hillary wins.
I hope the mods sticky something really annoying.

thats some sweet revisionist history m8.

...

>polls

They were. Leave was polling ahead immediately before the election.