Holy fuck look how much Hillary has dropped. What the fuck caused this. Even in the rigged ABC poll...

Holy fuck look how much Hillary has dropped. What the fuck caused this. Even in the rigged ABC poll. The indies will be the reason Trump wins.

Siggokak what an ID.

>ABC Tracking poll Tuesday: Clinton +12
>ABC Tracking poll Friday: Clinton +4
TUMBLING DOWN TUMBLING DOWN TUMBLING DOWN

They're going FULL FRAUD and are hoping you won't start shooting when they say it's Hillary.

Wasn't Hillary +12 in the ABC tracking poll at the start of the week?

She's been dropping like a rock. She is going to be tied soon in the rigged oversampled polls.

Yes. My best guess is that a large percentage of the sample is on ObamaCare.

Sounds like an Irishman trying to say suck a cock.

They have to slowly fix their rigged polls before the election begins so they don't get too much shit for it

This

I've always though this is counter-productive

maybe they're rigging the polls in Trump's favor now so more real undecided people panic and votes for Clinton

When will she flee to Qatar or KSA?

>ohno trump is winning because we oversampled the polles way to much and now democrats aren't voting

>lets create a more realistic pol to get hilldog voters backtada the result nothing special desu
>lets create a more realistic pol to get hilldog voters back

tada the result nothing special desu

fuck fixed it, watse of dubs

>ohno trump is winning because we oversampled the polles way to much and now democrats aren't voting

>lets create a more realistic pol to get hilldog voters back

tada the result nothing special desu

Pretty much this.

Even when Reagan won in a landslide victory he was still 5 points behind in the polls. That's how much the media hated him.

>just look at how much hillary has dropped
>+5
>+7
>+15
>+3
>+6
>+9
>+7
literally where?

DRUMPF is done. you can't make up this gap with less than 2 weeks to go.

Can you even rig or correct a tracking poll? I thought the whole point was to keep the same sample.

pollsters have two desires.

> they need to push the narrative that the democrat is winning
> they need to be right on their last poll

They can't drop it all in the last poll or they will look like jews begging for the ovens.But they can bring it down slowly in the last two weeks.

IBD was the best poll in the Last two elections and Hillary got from -2 to +3 in like 4 days

Its over

With so little time to the election the pollsters can better measure how motivated/likely voters are to actually vote.

Trump supporters are angry and motivated. Hillary supporters are confused and lazy.

According to RCP, he needs to flip FL, NC, AZ, NV, (all of which are within 3) and then one of the following: NH, PA, WI, MI (all of which are "Brexit States"). These tracking polls show a dramatic shift in his direction nationally (see ABC News Tracking).

so we have two tracking polls (tracking = every day) ABC tracking and LA times tracking. Yet, ABC appears twice in the average, while LA times appears only once.


Bbbbbut muh RCP average can't be wrong right? And is totally not rigged, right?

WHY THE FUCK AREN'T THERE MORE POLLS OUT OF SWING STATES?

WHY THE FUCK AREN'T THERE MORE STATE POLLS PERIOD?

I WAKE UP AND GET A FUCKING MISSOURI POLL? FUCKING MISSOURI? YEAH NO SHIT THEY'RE GOING RED WHERE'S PA, NH, ME, CO, NV, MI, OH, FL, NC, OR WI? FUCK I'LL EVEN TAKE GA, AZ, UT, MN, OR, NJ, TX, ANYTHING, JUST GIVE ME MORE STATE POLLS YOU FUCKS. I KNOW YOU WERE RELEASING MORE IN 2012, IT'S EVEN BEEN PROVEN.

The jews are raising him to drop him harder after a new tape release this weekend. . They did the exact same thing before the pussygrab shit.

The only thing we know, according to leaked emails on the topic is that the Hillary campaign THINKS cooking polls to show Trump losing works, and that they need to pressure poll companies to cook them.

i just placed a $400 bet on trump

They oversampled democrates too much and now people who they need to vote Hillary are not going to vote because they think Hillary won. Now they're making polls close.

the polling firms are starting to release more and more realistic data, so that people won't understand that they were trying to brainwash the american public with fake data during the campaign.

>our polls have a range of 17% in one week
>they are topacurate andscientific

easy
lie

Theoretically, it's a long standing notion in marketing that people will tend to opt for what they perceive other people are also opting for. It's an heuristic shortcut to save cognitive resources.

That's why a lot of advertises go like "Nº1 brand sold in America! Get it too!" instead "This brand is the fucking shit because bla bla bla".

The thing is people only resort to heuristic shortcuts when a) the consumer decision is not all that important and b) they have low access to information. This happens for example when people buy a washing machine: one brand is probably about as good as the other (a) and I'm no fucking washing machine engineer so I wouldn't know how to go about investigating the mechanical requisites of a good washing machine (b) so I might as well buy what everyone else is buying.
If premise A and B are not present, people will resort to a more analytical decision-making process.

Now you can make your own conclusions on how this relates to the present political campaign.

This

>Hillary was up 12 points in the ABC poll monday and is now only up 4
>Trump's support among repubs rose from 78% to 84% this week

What the fuck is she doing

I had a bad feeling in my gut the moment the media began declaring her the unanimous victor in the debates. She won, but not by enough of a margin for her to FUCKING TAKE THE REST OF THE ELECTION OFF AND START BRINGING OUT THE CHAMPAGNE NOW.

Somehow she's managed to take a sure path to victory and hand Trump all of the momentum. And the sad thing is NONE OF HER SUPPORTERS OR HER CAMP WANT TO LISTEN. I tried to warn people I know IRL this would happen after the 3rd debate, and everyone just blew me off or made fun of me.

>tfw fucking Sup Forums is the only place you can vent because everyone else has totally convinced themselves this is already over

I can feel it in my gut. She's going to blow it.

Frame voting for Trump as an act of rebellion against the establishment. Offer to ride people to vote. Tell people about the voter fraud and how they already had to change to paper ballots in some counties in Texas. Trump can only win if you put in the effort on the ground.

polls have been proven to be extremely unreliable this election cycle
odds are many of the poll agencies will stack their result towards the mean as time goes on so they don't get btfo by 20 points when the result is out.

Furthermore, people tend to opt for the consumer choice of people they identify with. So, an ad that says "Poll shows smart people buy Mercedes" would be even more effective becuase of course I identify myself as a smart person. Same with "Black people prefer blackberry!", "Educated millenials are turning left".

So yes, it should be a very effective propaganda toll if done on a large enough scale.

The media and establishment are now seen as bullies by many voters, they simply tried to much BS and shit on him too hard. He is looking like the victim and garnering sympathy.

Same thing happened with SD in Sweden.

I think theyre gonna leak another Trump tape today, they have to or else Hillary is fucked

friendly reminder that the race has been relatively even this entire time, the (((polling organisations))) have been oversampling democrats like it was 2008

they realized that they needed to make the race look close or else the dem turnout would be too low to win

Because, surprise, these aren't identically distributed, highly randomized, statistical samples.

I literally pay no attention to polling data unless it has over 2000 observations in the sample. Even then, its most likely not a random sample though.

People are already voting. If they had something, they would have released it by now.

She blew her load.

These polls fluctuate so much when nothing notable changes. The methodology must be complete shite.

If you just look at some of the questions asked you can see theyre obviously not interested in getting neutral data.

But user he doesn't need to flip AZ or NC.

...

honestly trump should be focusing on blocking hillary's fraud in Florida (Trump is bringing out the southern vote, so Florida will not be an issue), and focus on WI, PA, and MI. Ohio is in the bag, Indiana is in the bag. He just needs those rust belt factory states, and bring the labor unions to the right wing. Unions won't have a business at all if the factories they leech off are moving across the world.

Can user tell me why the sudden shift? Surely not wikileaks? Surely not o keffe? What changed in a week?

>Ohio is in the bag
Don't underestimate the niggers in Toledo, Dayton, Cleveland, and Columbus m8.

This

They do it every time. You would think Dems would get sick of it but no. Dems become republicans and then a new crop of kids turn 18 and the cycle starts over

checked
Democrats would try their best to bus people in.

Indeed, a huge difference between reality and polls would scream conspiracy

Media trying to save face.

Not going to work, sad!

Swede bro lives in liberal fantasy Island..He knows better than anyone what is happening

In absentee voting, blacks now only make up 77% of the electorate instead if 10%.

The worst overage I've been seeing is 75% black voter turnout, which is consistent with the last two elections, but it's more like 50% any year the nominee isn't black.

Even the shilliest of polls have him up in Ohio now, by as much as 3 points. It's not a massive lead, but given how polls have been this year that might as well be in the bag. Even Nate Hydro-fluorocarbon's giving him Ohio now.

***According to RCP. They show him losing by a small margin.

Hillary has a few gorillian left to spend in the election it's just pollsters and media scaring her campaign into dumping the money. It's a racket.

The polling methodology is and always have been completely dogshit. Hillary could be +10 on aggregate tomorrow.

Obamacare imploding sure the fuck didn't help

RCP average had Romney winning Florida

I thought it takes some days for polls to reflect current feelings?

one of the least damning things to make her poll numbers drop but the MSM was forced to cover it so it worked.

hillbags handlers are guarding her night and day. Hoping she wont fall down or have another stroke. They are afraid she will break her hip.

what odds senpai?

Again, I'm speaking according to RCP without throwing my own opinion in there. If you think he's winning all four of those states, that's great. I'd probably agree with you, too.

Stay a while, friendo. You might find out that you like it here.


But yeah, Hillary has been coached to be more confident so she can compete with Trump's natural confidence, but as often happens when people put on an act they take it much farther than they need to. Like in the debates, every time Trump went after her she had that condescending smile on her face, but she never has anything to say that can properly address his attacks. She just does that stupid fucking smirk and then moves on to the next soundbyte.

Every other time that Trump has started to surge in polls has been to manufacture a huge slump when they revert to normal oversampling. My bet is that something is gonna drop next week that is bad for Trump and they are building up for that same slump narrative as usual.

STL boy huh? Warrenton here.

12 Million Moroccan Dirham says that the media is trying to save face before Trump wins by bringing Hillary down in the polls.

Polls have to appear accurate closer to the election. They can't be HRC +14 the day before and be wrong bigly. They will lose all credibility that way.

If they "tighten up" a week or two before the election (which is what's happening), they can say "oh "X" happened to cause a dramatic shift in the polls out of nowhere!" when they were really tight all along, but they were trying to suppress voters.

It's the liberal smirk. That condescending "I'm enlightened by my own intellect and in this moment I am euphoric" look. Makes me want to smash with rock.

I know this varies by state, but I'm having some trouble finding the law regarding Ohio.

I work for a University and we have student run voter registration booths; however, they are blatant anti-Republican. Here are some examples I've seen at the voter registration booths at my University:
>cut outs of Bernie and Hillary you can take pictures with after you register
>signs that read "Love Trumps Hate"
>a big orange banner that reads "Stop Trump. Register today."

Surely these can't be legal, right guys? Obviously, a Republican or right-leaning student wouldn't register at a booth with such obvious leftist-shill propaganda hanging above it. I've been searching for the exact law in Ohio regarding this, but I can't find it.

Because they were rigging the polls too hard. When Clinton was at +12 their voters thought it was already a done deal and wouldn't go out to vote. So they have to make it seem like they're winning, but not by much, to make everyone commit to actually voting.

They lower the values so that they can make her favourability explode after the next "scandal" of Trump.

What idiot in the world, believes anything the ((media)) spews out of their collective asses?

They never provide their sources. It's literally shit they make up. Or its " A recent poll of our office staff says: ".

>normie polls go back up
>LA times / IDB / rasmussen go down

its like these polls are inverted. when one of the two goes up, the other goes down. what the fuck. well i guess LA times is still somewhat ahead but its jumping around a lot

that ABC poll is hilarious. it went from +12 to +5 in like 3 days

Pollsters rigging the polls to help Clinton, but in the end they want to be right so they're coming back down as we get closer.

this, so much this

but what they are constantly underrporting is the size of "brexit" vote in pa oh mi and wi
that will be the make or brake for trump

>sanders polling 26 points behind in MI, wins the primary

>FL, NC, AZ, NV
check out early voting. He's nailing NC and FL.
>NH, PA, WI, MI
I'd be surprised if he didn't win at least 2 of these.

We should be happy they are rigging the polls since it keeps Clinton supporters home and motivates Trump supporters to go out and vote.

there's one for 4-way and one for 2-way. only the 2-way one is included in the head-to-head graph.

they're eating the polls. Only about 1/3 of the state polls that are conducted are actually getting published in comparison to last general election.
can you say LANDSLIDE?

Hmmm maybe Sup Forums was right when it told you that the polls were rigged in favor for Hillary

>I had a bad feeling in my gut the moment the media began declaring her the unanimous victor in the debates. She won, but not by enough of a margin for her to FUCKING TAKE THE REST OF THE ELECTION OFF AND START BRINGING OUT THE CHAMPAGNE NOW.
she won debates.
she didn't win over voters. that's what matters.

Obamacare and the recent Bill clinton scandal stuff.

Ya'll niggas should be wary though - this guarantees they will try and bust out or gaslight some new trump "controversy".

So yeah this makes me optimistic but I highly expect them to try and bring out a new boogeyman to try and sink Trump's chances.

Blunt +1

ITS DUDEBRO TIME

Yeah they use polls that undersample R by 20 in AZ.

>What the fuck caused this.

Unspent ad dollars in the campaign war chests.

They're being inconsistent in their rigging, obv. Statisticians (real ones with integrity) can detect this shit easily.

It's Friday today too. They like to drop bombs right before the weekend. I'm expecting something today.

This is just the Luegenpresse unrigging what was rigged

in that case we might have to activate our secret weapons. two of them. stand by for nuclear removal of the democratic party

I know when it comes to the polls you can't do it but I don't think there's protection when you register.

We have been saying this was going to happen for months

They rigged the polls trying to steer public opinion.
Then in the last few weeks they HAVE to start putting out the closer to real numbers so they won't look like complete morons like the UK Brexit pollsters.

If they have Hillary winning buy 5-10 then trump wins by 5-10 they will have been 10-20 off and comp0letely humiliated and no one would pay attention to them ever again.

Now the spin will be "can the wikileaks be behind Trumps unexpected surge?" and " Trump rallies late in an unexpected surge"

screencap this post for proof when it happens

Just wait until Killary's campaign drops another media distraction bomb on Trump and these polls will jump out again.

I'm sure she's got something up her sleeve besides Saudi money.

reminds me of pic related.
murca stahp
pls

>She won, but not by enough of a margin for her to FUCKING TAKE THE REST OF THE ELECTION OFF AND START BRINGING OUT THE CHAMPAGNE NOW.

They've been doing that in spades of late.


History is not anthropomorphic, it is not a deity that has a conscience or a sentient desire for the 'right' side of history or a march of progress.

However

History does seem to adopt the trappings of a deity solely in order to put a Greek-moral-story smackdown on hubris and arrogance. Fukuyama's "End of History" in the 90s and the claim of victory of western liberal free market secuarlism, Hitler's thousand year reich, "We'll be back by christmas" WW1, "Junior Varsity team ISIS".

And Hillary and her campaign have been acting like they already won - yeah Trump had his pump up "Just give the election to me we already know I won" but he's still working out on the stump like he hasn't won it yet. Hillary was sitting on her laurels and the media pets were starting to count their chickens before they hatched - "Hillary is thinking of choosing Biden for Secretary of State" "Democrats are already planning to sink the chances of 2020 candidates who will threaten her re-election campaign".

It's 2008 all over again with nobody likes a coronation. Even so I am not going to count my chickens fore they've hatched. I am going to vote Trump even if my vote won't make a diff in this state. I am still pessimistic and expect the worst so that I can be happily surprised rather than bitterly disappointed.

She got BTFO'd in the 3rd debate with the russia rhetoric

They adjusted back the oversampling.
The numbers they were broadcasting before were too unrealistic.