ODDS ON TRUMP WINNING ARE NOW 4.4 AFTER BEING AT 6.2 FOR A MONTH

ODDS ON TRUMP WINNING ARE NOW 4.4 AFTER BEING AT 6.2 FOR A MONTH
IT WAS 4.5 MINUTES AGO
THE ((BOOKIES)) KNOW WE'RE GONNA WIN
AAAAAAHHHHH

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>tfw made a 100£ bet while 6.0

>tfw only bet £15
Gonna spend £72 on maga hats though.
BET WHILE YOU CAN Sup Forums!

>THE ((BOOKIES)) KNOW WE'RE GONNA WIN

Is that why Hillary has three times better odds?

Also how the fuck are these other random fuckos there? If you're not on at least one state's ticket in any form, it's literally impossible for you to be the next president.

Mate this is brexit all over again.
Don't be a sour kraut and put £50 on Trump to win f.am

Lol it went from 5.7 to 3.95 then rebounded to about 4.5, the trump tapes had about the same impact but in reverse just so you can appreciate the severity

Just wait for her polling to plummet now

EL BUMPO RIDES AGAIN

>tfw you get 100k SEK if he wins

What you gonna spend your £20 on?

Trump was already on the rebound after everybody realised the pussy grabbing incident was just hot air

This will put him back close to 50/50 again for sure

its £9000 but nice try elizabeth

My betting agency has come in from 5.50 to 3.60 since the FBI investigation was released.

I got on at 5.50 for him to win the Popular vote. It's happening.

Where can I bet? I still wanna get in on this.

send money to a bong you trust
All jokes aside Oskar thats a pretty sweet return

Betting is illegal in the land of the free (outside (((casinos))) anyway)

oh shit

predictit.org

clinton just dropped 9%

trump up 7%

am i really gonna win?

>freedomland
>allowed to bet

lmao

What do these numbers mean? The lower they go the better apparently but why?

the lower they go = bookers think trump has a bigger chance of winning

But what do these numbers represent? They're clearly not percentages

A $1 bet will win you the stated amount

Hence $5 or so for Trump will win you back 5:1 but the chance of that happening is implied as being in the order of 20%.

If they bump it down to $3 or something, it means the bookies think he has a better chance than before

Oh I see. Because more people put money down on Trump. Gotcha

Any fellow leafs know of a good set that is available to canada?

Lower the odds = more likely you will win your bet BUT you get less of a return.
Higher odds mean the opposite.
For Trump's odds to rise from 6 to 4 means he went from 6 times less likely to win to 4 times less likely which is a safe risk when it comes to a bet like this.

Hilldog has higher odds to win as the bookies always go by 'stats' instead of public opinion like with Brexit but we all saw how that went..

Do you remember the Brexit odds? I'm curious

You moron, that's because the DOW is in fucking freefall right now.

The best predictors of who will win are based on the economy, and it's tanking.

They are probably just working on some kind of scam right now.

>start crashing it on purpose so it's up the 5 days leading up to the election

Right before the outcome it was around 6 or 7:1 to Remain

As high as about 10:1 at one point

... is there a Canadian version of this, or is Canada like the US and bans betting on politics?

Ask Sup Forums

They will be able to help you

I don't remember but based nige won £2500 :3

This is why I have a shill twitter, spamming betting sites about false Trump stuff.
I want the odds to go down extremely for Trump before he wins..

Some user predicted the odds would update about a week ago. I didn't screen cap it. Said he had connections to bookies. I use predictit. Every state and the overall election has shifted towards Trump there today.

>tfw $4 000 on Trump
>my currency sucks ass


FUCK YOU WEEDMAN FOR SELLING ALL OUR GOLD REEEEEEE

no it just means more people are betting on him now

I disagree, the betting sites tailor the odds not to reflect demand but to reflect what they believe is the possibility, which is based off the polls - Trump is doing better in the polls and more and more drama with the democrats make Trump's odds become more favourable

put a cheeky £30 on him a couple of days ago

MAGA

They tailor the odds with demand being a factor.

>4.4
>WE'RE GONNA WIN
And this is way betting is such a big market in Britain, nobody understands simple math.

Let me explain how implied probability works
>You take all the odds, and sum their inverses
So if we assume it's either trump or Hillary, we get 1/1.31+1/4.4 = 0.99
It should always be >1 because that way you can't always win money - arbitrage betting.
For example: here, if you put $77 on Hillary and $23 on Trump, no matter the outcome, you'll win either $0.87 or $1.2.

>Multiply the wanted odd by 1/sum
1/4.4 * 1/0.99 = 0.23

So Trump has 23% of winning, not much better than what Nate Silver gives him.

You're both right

The bookies will try to predict the effects that events like today's will have on betting patterns by changing odds to reflect what they think the likely outcome will be.

At the same time, the actual distribution of bets placed will affect how much they odds are shifted. It's a form of insurance that the bookies will try to balance the placement of bets.

T doing better in the polls makes more people bet on him though

Translate for nongamblers?

For every dollar you bet on Trump, you win 4.4 if he wins

USA bookies have him @ +215. Thats an implied 1/3 chance to win.

I've got 20 quid riding on him at the moment.

Should I put my big boy boots on and up it to fifty?

I won a hundred quid on Brexit and wish I'd had the balls to bet more.

Aust was 5.4 yesterday, 3.5 today

Except you're not reading between the lines like everyone else.
Bookies go by stats because you can't quantify public opinion.
Think of it as a playing card game.
Hilldog
>secretary of state
>woman
>panders to every demographic
>experience as a politician
>backed by the media
etc

Trump
>'reality tv star'
>outspoken male
>billionaire

On paper you would assume Hilldog would win. The odds reflect that. But for Trump to add nothing new to his 'resume' of sorts and the bookies to raise his odds to win mean his actual odds to win are waaay higher as they're factoring in both public opinion and the current cultural zeitgeist

IDS HABBEING

predictit.org is where Americans can legally bet on Trump

>you can't quantify public opinion.

What is a poll?

should i bet 100 dollars on him?

shoulda bet on him back in the primaries when it was like 900/1

>you can't quantify public opinion
yes you can

23% is 23%, if they really believed Trump had better odds, they would give him 3.5 instead of 4.4, popular opinion definitely affects the odds, but not to that degree.
I mean, if they "knew" Trump was gonna win, they wouldn't give him such good odds (bettor-wise).
Odds don't work like polls, you can't try to predict its future using trends, because that's the booker's job, they try to analyze the changes on every single lever.

they fucked up hard with Brexit too, bookies are wrong often.

you should know this you fuckin kockel

Rate my OC pol.

It's 3.5 atm here in Aus.Happy I put $500 at 5/1.

I've been sniping the down states on here, these people actually believe the shill polls.

Even if trump looses(probably won't but I'm playing safe with my money) I still win.

>what is a poll
>what is people being shy voters/over sampling
True but this is a major sign he has it in the bag imo

Get on my level

Never said they can't be wrong.

What I am saying is that you can't try to use analysis of trends in booker odds as a prediction tool.

I sure hope so

What the fuck is this bullshit?

You're alright in my book Ishmael
>Trump to win - 4.3
w e w
e
w

>bet $100 on him winning the primary just before iowa last year
>odds were like 8 to 1
>bet $100 on brexit about 2 weeks before it happened
>odds were like 7 to 1
>bet $200 on trump winning the whole thing just after the conventions
>odds were like 9 to 1
I have enjoyed this year over all.

>tfw you get $30,000 when he wins

sportsbet here in aus odds were 5.50 yeterday, dropped to 3.50 thismorning, and the suspended betting on Hillary dropping out (extra kek)

You guys can chill.
Kek will ensure Trump wins.

...

...

Already got 1000 bongshekels on trump. Should I double that before the odds plummet further?

>tfw I bet on him at 9.2 odds

I'm in for $2000. lel

Got myself excluded from the betting site because I ekpt betting more and more

I tried reading up a bit about this online but I didn't find it out:

If you lose, can you ever lose more than the amount of money you've betted? The odds only affect the potential monetary gain in case of a win, and not the loss?

You only lose what you bet you retard

You can only lose what you've put down senpai

Yes.
Decimal odds reflect your total revenue from a win (including the stake you get back).
Fractional odds reflect your profit from a win (in addition to getting back your stake).

...

>getting cucked out of money you don't even put down

It had to be a Swede

ignorance, rather. I've never done betting, but I have used leverages in securities trading. Leveraged trading will then amplify both losses and gains.

cheers.

1k more than me.

>tfw put $30 on Trump winning
>stand to make $100
May kek make it so

Luckily I made my bet a few days ago at 5:1 odds

>Got myself excluded from the betting site because I ekpt betting more and more

wut

where'd you bet?

youtube.com/watch?v=YlQfW9oK1G4

USA was having trouble
What a sad, sad story
Needed a new leader to restore
Its former glory
Where, oh, where was he?
Where could that man be?
We looked around and then we found
The man for you and me

And...now...it's...
Springtime for Donald and Liberty
The nation is happy and gay!
We're growing at a faster pace!
Watch out here comes the silent base!

Springtime for Donald and Liberty
Maine-land's a red-land once more
Springtime for Donald and Liberty
Watch out Predo
We're building a wall

Springtime for Donald and Liberty
Jailtime for Hill'ry and Bill
Springtime for Donald and Liberty
Good bye Hill'ry we've got your emails

I used to be for Hillary
But then I saw her tyrany
Don't be stupid, be a smarty
Come and take the red pill nightly.

Springtime for Donald and Liberty
True word's the new words today
Bombs falling from the sky again
Roaches run off into Iran

Springtime for Donald and Liberty
Markets are sailing once more

Springtime for Donald and Liberty
Means that soon we'll be going
We've got to be going
You know we'll be going forward.

>I've never done betting
Spread betting can mount up and cost you a fortune if you're not careful.

This is just a straight wager, for or against.

Odds show the potential return; i.e. 4/1 - bet 1 to win 4 plus your 1 back.

I put $500.00 on Trump during the RNC.

Gibemedatmoneybux

fucking kek

In for 750 euro's, was thinking about going in for 250 maybe not for 4.00.

For 250 more i mean.

Don't fully remember the odds, just remembering putting my last bit of faith in the british people and bet £500 to leave.

Woke up £2000 better off.

This thing with Trump looks very familiar, tempted to try my luck again.

Take it. Only going lower.

PredictIt there are no Trump Sellers. Market is frozen.

Should I make a bet? How much?

How the fuck does PredictIt even work? I can't understand how you actually get a return from it.
Keep in mind I'm an idiot.

Also William Hill is offering me $580 cash out on my $500 bet, kek.

it's called predict it

4.4 means you get 4.4x multiplier on the amount you bet, if you win. Meaning you get 3.4x the money you bet in profit. The closer it goes to 1, the bigger the odds are of winning but the lower the reward. Got it?

Trump will win. Guaranteed.

are the odds different depending on the country?

They differ by betting company.

Praise be to him

The spread is still decent enough that you can effectively hedge and still make a decent profit no matter who wins.