What did he mean by this?

Does Nate Silver know better than the polls?

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Nate knows jack and shit. And Jack just left town

He gets balder by the day, he's basically the poster child of "nervous man claiming Trump is finished for the 47th time this year"

>2%

Nate Memer knows the truth, but he's too butthurt to say anything supportive of Trump.

All the polls agreed a couple days ago

>He gets balder by the day
To be fair, my side is winning and I'm not exactly getting flowing locks

Go find pics from his appearance on CNN he's JUST incarnate.

Reminder that he gave Trump a 2% chance of winning the Primary and since then he's been in damage control mode

The last 3 presidential elections have been predictable as all fuck. No one who predicted them deserves any notoriety whatsoever.

Nate Hydrogen is reaping what he sowed

He's pretty ugly, even by jew standards
*not all jews are ugly*

woops

LOOK AT THE TOP OF HIS HEAD

This is from last week.

Wasn't his claim to fame that he predicted all states except one last election? Is that supposed to be impressive? Most states are either red or blue by default anyway right? There are only a couple that he would need to predict and the fact that he actually got one of them wrong would make him a pretty bad analyst I would say.

>0%
>-10%

no they didn't. The polls have been complete shit for weeks now.

Back in the primaries you'd get a cluster of +3-5 Trump polls, then you'd get the occasional outlier of Trump +8 or Trump +1. And that was with typically only ~500 people polled.

Polling has never been less consistent throughout this cycle than it has been in the last month. We've had a sizable cluster of "near tie" polls, a cluster of Clinton +4-7, and a sizeable cluster of double digit lead polls. And this is with 1000 people, so the margin of error should only be +-3 and should be accurate 90% of the time.

Something clearly fucky is happening, but Cuck Silver is just ignoring it.

...

Yes, exactly. There's about eight states, give or take, that aren't obviously blue or red in any given election.

But saying you predicted "all 50" is much more impressive than saying you predicted the eight where there's any uncertainty.

Brother?

Translation: LALALALA CAN'T HEAR YOU! TOO BUSY WATCHING MY GIRLFRIEND GET FUCKED BY A BLACK MAN.

>2012
>in one of my political science classes
>professor has us predict the outcome of the election and who wins what state
>about 25% of the class gets 50/50, the most someone got wrong was 2

this shit isn't hard

He is shitting bricks

He's also four inches shorter than when the election started.

Out of all the elections, 2008 and especially 2012 were the easiest to predict, wasn't even a close call, Obama is just that popular/not unliked.

It is amazing he got Cruz and Carson, the two who got the second and third highest poll numbers, less than 2%. What a fucking idiot.

It's funny how liberals worship this mook. They think he's some kind of wise sage statistics genius savant that can tell the future. "Muhhh 49/50 states predicted last election".

I know several women at my job who literally start off their day by asking if they saw FiveThirtyEight last night. I spoke up once to these dumb bitches about how wrong he was in predicting Trump winning the primary and like fucking gears in a machine they quoted verbatim his damage control article that he made right after he was wrong. Seems like the guy never likes admitting he's wrong.

I can't wait to verbally facefuck the idiots at my office when it turns out he's wrong, again, for the hundredth time. I don't normally wish ill on a person unless they deserve it but I hope this guy loses his job, his house, all his connections and every cent of his funding. It's only justice for how assured he is of himself and how rabid his liberal sycophant followers are of his accuracy.

Yeah, Obama has a weird cult of personality thing going on. There are people who unironically want 4+ more years of him.

Glad someone else is noticing this clustering. Very odd data sets for something allegedly measuring the same thing.

Polls used to be accurate as possible because what people wanted was accuracy.
Now what people want is a poll that agrees with them. And what the parties and media want is a poll that will affect 538s algorithm enough to make it look like it is going to be a nailbiter to get more people checking the news.

Silver gives out data based on polls, if the pollsters get it wrong he also gets it wrong.

This was what happened in 2014, it could be like this in 2016 as well. Or it could go the other way.

jesus fucking christ it NEVER FUCKING ENDS

>Actually, This Is Good
>Why Things Are Actually OK
>They Call Me A Statistician, But I'm Not, And Why This Is Good And OK
>The Polls All Disagree, Up Is Down, The President Doesn't Exist, I Am The Walrus, You're All Gonna Die And Why You Shouldn't Worry
>Also, Actually OK, And Good, And Why You Should Too

For what it's worth his book on statistical analysis was actually kind of interesting. Less about politics and more about sorting out fact and fiction from data and using historical examples to show when it worked in the past.

I'd recommend getting it from your library instead of paying for it, because you're not going to read it twice.

>average of +4 bias

Those are some shitty polls. The opposition party tends to do much better in midterm elections (Dems had gains in 06, Reps had gains in 10 and 14), it seems that wasn't taken into account.

It's getting embarrassing. Every article from 538 lately has been like this.

Liberal fantasy polls all forgot that americans watched the primaries and the polls during the primaries. When Nate Silver switched over to "% chance of winning" instead of data, he lost the last shred of credibility he had.

I'm not autistic enough to buy a book about statistics

Nate Silver is nothing but a joke now.

ITT: the exact same denial we saw in '12

Hilarious.

JUST

Silver is bad, but that turbokike Harry Enten is infinitely more insufferable. Literally every article he writes is some variation of, "Trump is really finished, goyim, I swear."

Source

this

>nate silver
i.4cdn.org/wsg/1476858738321.webm

yup, just like in the primaries, TRUST HIM YOU FILTHY GOYIM

Obama is easily the least scandalous President of my life time. Probably the most mundane, non controversial President since who, Eisenhower?

Sure, sure we got Kenyan, Muslim, Homo stuff, but not one political scandal. Fast and Furious went no where and Clinton got 110% of the B.G. blame.

>least scandalous
>most mundane, non controversial

hope you realize all the prognosticators are going to get a free pass on this election. he'll just say it's an outlier and everyone will agree with him.

What websites have the worst / most rigged polls?

nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

Shows Clinton is continuing to gain in the polls, and puts Trumps chance of winning at 9%

Which I personally think is pretty hilarious.

(but not as hilarious as this shirt)