I HURT MYSELF TODAY

I HURT MYSELF TODAY

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Holy shit he got up fast

>Drumfpkins grasping for straws

Top jej

>Florida Red

AND IM FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

FREE FALLING

trump is gonna win by NC

rolling for the get

Trump will win

THANKS FOR THE MEMORIES

He was at 22% when I checked yesterday. Wew lads.

>implying he won't creep up to 51% before November 8 so Nate Tin can keep his never wrong track record

>implying he won't just give up entirely and put it at exactly 50/50

>Nate quickly adjusting his polls

I FOCUSED ON THE PAIN
THE ONLY THING THAT'S REAL

He says Senate will be Democrat. Doesn't that mean Trump won't be able to pass anything?

Probably not for the first 2 years, but the 2018 midterms are set to be a fucking trainwreck for the Democrats

A) 538's model doesn't make predictions. It's an indication of the chances that something happens a particular way based on a ton of data, so yes, it changes every few hours

B) No fucking way Trump gains 23% in a week. Neither candidate moved that much at any point throughout the election. Not after Hillary's first email thing, not after the conventions, not after Trump's pussy grab.

He was at 15% a few days ago.

>NC
>blue
This is where Nate (((Silver))) loses all his credibility.

We've gone blue before, it'll happen again

...

It's going o be hard to be president if she's locked up. Evidence is mounting, Obama doesn't defend Hillary, Barack and Michelle Obama/Elizabeth Warren unfollow Hillary on Twitter, Michelle Obama wipes tweets to 2013, FBI releases report on Bill Clinton...Hillary's done, it's MAGA time.

YAY!

>ctr is back and better than ever!

This is the best that Trump can hope to do.

Oh wait, it's 9 accounts in the white house who unfollowed Hillary, and Loretta Lynch and Comey just met to discuss evidence against her.

>My gut says the guy who actually uses mountains of data and correctly picks the presidential race every time is wrong

LOL, go back to Breitbart and keep spouting tinfoil hat BS. Nobody's going to jail. Except maybe Trump after he loses for sexually assaulting a 13 yr-old.

What difference does it make if Trump still loses? Keep up the CTR bullshit all you want. It just makes you look desperate.

>tinfoil hat BS
The writing's on the wall, top democrats are abandoning her.

You've been saying that for months. It's just not true.

Just keep your eye on the news today

so what are the chances utah goes for mcmullin

>muh conspiracy theory

How does it feel knowing the best chance for getting your guy elected isn't his own merit, but rather some kind of concocted scandal to bring down his opponent? And that said scandal still isn't enough?

It's kind of ridiculous how easy it is for the dems. They basically always start with an automatic win.

Polling results, per 538:

Trump: 36.1%
McMullen: 28.6%
Clinton: 27.2%

Based on those numbers, McMullin has an 18% chance of winning the state.

How does it feel to delude yourself? Im going to laugh my ass off when the rug is pulled out from under you koolaid drinkers. The problem is you only pay attention to the news outlets that Hillary has paid off, of course theyre going to say there's nothing there, its their job. The fact is, Comey wouldn't have come out with this stuff unless he was sure it was damning, because he was disgraced after he let her go, and to do it again would mean the end of any lingering respect anyone would still have for him. Obama would know what Comey had on her, so would Loretta Lynch, and they both would have reason to stop Comey if it was something they could write off. But they didnt do that, Obama said he didnt think Comey was being partisan, and Lynch gave him the warrant. Now the top democrats are distancing themselves from Hillary. If you can't see what's happening here, you're blind or just plain dumb. Doesn't matter though, because at the speed this is playing out, I would expect a major announcement to happen this week if not the next day or two.

how come new mexico and colorado are blue?
aren’t all southerns supposed to be red?

>No fucking way Trump gains 23% in a week.
He's gone up like 20% in the past week though...

>the news outlets that Hillary has paid off

Stopped reading right there. Your tinfoil hat is showing.

He came out with the statement before he had even read the emails. Unless you're implying Comey read them without a warrant, in which case he literally broke the law.

>Texas
>Red
Drumpftards are this delusional.

Ok man, now it's obvious you're trolling.

In the process of investigating Wiener he could see the metadata, or he could've read them, all legal. He had to get the warrant to look at them in the capacity of investigating Clinton.

The US "South" as a cultural/voting bloc is more just a term for the Southeast, mostly the states that seceded during the Civil War. The "South" begins at Texas and goes East from there. It doesn't just refer to the southern half of the country.

Why do you say that?

Ayyyyy this guy is back! Back at it again with the "no hope" maps I see!

Good, how it should be. We do more for the people.

He was never lower than about 15%. He's definitely gained in the last week, but not 20%, and just because it's moved some lately doesn't mean it will continue to move, or even at the same rate. "Bad news" for Clinton or Trump has a finite effect.

Psst. Results leaked.

Both of these maps are wrong, they think Hillary will take WI? Nope. No chance.

God that would be such a clusterfuck.

>implying outcomes of elections can be chalked up to numeric percentage predictions
>tfw I am actually nate platinum

Wisconsin is full of cuck farmers who love illegals

IT WILL BE A LANDSLIDE VICTORY FOR TRUMP. WAIT AND SEE SHILL, WAIT AND SEE. MOCK MY WORDS.

No, the farmers are red all the way. Only voters in Madison and MAYBE Milwaukee would go for Hillary, and that's nothing.

right and fatty bankrupt is failing in FL as well as OH

Even Nate knows that Hillary is done. This is from yesterday.

He couldn't read them because the sexting scandal was being conducted by the NYPD not the FBI. They forwarded the emails to the FBI because they thought it might be relevant to the Hillary email case. Comey had no legal right to read the emails, period. The metadata only tells you where the emails came from. Comey doesn't know anything except that Hillary's top aide has a laptop with a bunch of emails that came from Hillary's server. Anything else is jumping to conclusions.

Right? It's hilarious that people think 538 somehow has something to gain by "faking" results and election models. Polling numbers don't drive election results--it's the other way around. Putting out false polling information, if it was even believed, wouldn't do anything except make people surprised on election day when things turned out differently.

Show of hands: who votes for someone because "the polls say they're winning?"

>MOCK MY WORDS.

You type in all caps like an angry kid with down's syndrome.

The picture you posted has nothing to do with what you said. Try harder.

whats with Belgians and pretending they understand US voting demos and cuture. Look I get it when a rural hick in the us doesn't understand that more people live in citys and suburbs, but whats with these eurocucks?

>emails that came from Hillary's server
That's the issue, Hillary wasn't supposed to have her own unprotected server. If Comey found from the metadata that emails from Hillary's server were potentially classified, that's all he would need. Obviously something like that was found to be true, because he wouldn't just come out with this and risk his ass like that if it was nothing.

It kinda relates to what he said? I doubt Silver is trying to say there might be a huge systemic polling error in favor of Hillary.

Both parties suck you fucking idiot, your party is the worse of the two. You only help worthless low lives that aren't even citizens half the time in order to virtue signal.

>putting a candidate down by 12 points two weeks before the election won't hurt his enthusiasm

You're retarded. They put Trump down in the polls using shady methods to depress his enthusiasm levels. Now that it's closer to the election they're dramatically swinging back his way. How the hell does he go up 13 points in two weeks?

>the polls are just unpredictable, I wasn't wrong

Try harder, Nate. Your career is ruined.

source?

Nate Silver's predictions are based on polls. Polls have varied so wildly and shifted so quickly that we may see significant movement before Nov 8 on his website, let along the actual results.

It's really not his fault that pollsters are making insane assumptions to fit an agenda.

>Drumfpkins grasping for straws

Top kek

>metadata

What possible meta data would be present that classified data was moved, you need to look at the body of the document to tell that.
Do you know what your talking about or are you bandying around technical sounding words?

This. Comey said he hasn't looked at the emails, but at the very least they've compared the metadata to the emails they have now to make sure they aren't duplicates. Comey's career is on the line with this issue.

>black tennessee
What can be done to fix this state?

>serbian
>MOCK MY WORDS

yep clearly understands the US election system

You could see if it said state.gov

How would you tell an email was classified from its metadata? Do you even know what metadata fucking is?

Metadata doesn't tell you anything about the actual text of an email.

By comparing metadata, they can conclude that the emails they found weren't turned over, which gives a significant probability that there is classified data on them.

Comey is a career politician, he weighed the risks out before he did this. If there were even a small chance this was a "nothingburger" then he wouldn't have risked his career on it.

He's even stated a worry before about "herding". Say the polls average out to say Clinton is winning. The pollsters that have Trump winning then ask: what are we doing wrong? So they adjust their polls, change the methods, and in the next poll they now also say Clinton is winning. Now imagine everyone doing this. All the polls are now herded to a reality that may not be true, with no malicious intent from anyone.

Romney won NC, Trump is bigtime outperforming Romney in early voting in NC, and you are telling me NC is going to be blue?

Calling bullshit on that one. Calling TOTAL bullshit on that one.

>from ~10% to 28% in a few days

TRUMP

M
O
M
E
N
T
U
M

Sadly that seems realistic

But i hope that trump will be president

and if he looses...well...then there will be an election in 4 years...after the financial crisis and dozen of terrorist attacks...

victory is nigh

No, but it can tell you that these were the emails Hillary illegally deleted after getting the subpoena from Congress.

Unlikely. Maine looks like it will split and Trump has a very good chance to win NH. If Trump's going to carry anything up there, it's NH.

>Drumfpkins grasping for straws

Top jej

Because FBI agents have no idea what they're doing right? I'm sure they're all mental midgets when it comes to investigation.

>since minorities turned out in droves to vote for Obama the last two elections the same will happen again and none of the other swing states will ever be red again

you are in for a surprise faggot

Because class 1 is up for election.
Of the 33 seats of class 1, 22 are democratic.

They have everything to lose and midterms always suck for dems anyway.

cesrusc.org/election/

>THE GRAY BAND
>THE GRAY BAND
>THE GRAY BAND

Sigh. ESPN poll is owned by Disney. Disney's CEO is a big Hillary donor.

...

this
dems do awful at midterms to begin with
but it's going to be a slaughter

>Sanders has a better chance of becoming President than Johnson

kek

Romney literally won North Carolina in 2012.

Why do people think that Obama carried NC in 2012? He did not. Look at the goddamn 2012 electoral map.

Now look at early voting results from 2012 and so far through 2016. Now look at what sort of politicians, R & D, have done well in North Carolina over the past twenty years. Populists against free trade. Guys like John Edwards.

NC is red. that doesn't guarantee Trump victory, but NC will be red.

P.S. Florida and Ohio, too. New Hampshire is so critical. new Hampshire might decide this election.

QUEEN SURGING

Much more likely that republicans that were planing to sit it out have changed their mind. Also the spread was 6-7 points on average and that's different then outliers.

>a Trump presidency is twice as likely as Brexit

IT'S HAPPENING

True but the Dems only need those 2 years to make a liberal Supreme Court to last a generation

hillary won't win the presidency

Well bernie bros feel harder then libertarians I guess

>Sanders
>0.6%

So since we know it is literally outside of the realm of possibility for Sanders to win, and yet they still throw him a few percentage points because they think an election can be chalked up to "chances" like it's a fucking football game, I tend to think the model is very flawed

Or they know they can squeeze a few bucks out of retarded bernouts

>No odds for Jeb! winning the presidency.
These bookies don't know shit.

This

Yeah, I'm sure it was just a mistake that caused the +12...

Oh no...

You're wildly misreading the letter. Comey said he's investigating these emails. Which is correct, he's supposed to. The only issue at hand here is that Comey decided being forthright with Congress was more important than staying neutral in the election.

If he had something incriminating, he'd say so. He hasn't said as such therefor he doesn't.

The emails were not illegally deleted. She deleted them because the FBI already had all the relevant work related emails because of the Benghazi investigation, so she deleted her personal emails that were also on the server. The FBI said this would be exactly the same no matter if the server had been a .gov server or her own. In any event that's actually a different investigation since the one at hand here is for illegally storing classified materials on the server, not violating federal archive laws.

It's highly possible that at least some of those 33k deleted emails were from this laptop, yes. We'll get to see if they were really personal emails or if any were work emails or highly incriminating in general. But you wouldn't know any of that from the metadata. You'd need to actually read the contents of the emails to know for sure.