So a poll out of the College of William and Mary came out in favor of Clinton and leftists are having a field day with it.
What does Sup Forums think of the legitimacy of this one?
Personally, I have painstakingly, autistically visited every last motherfucking Florida county's voting website and sourced the data myself. There were even a few counties without data so I did a myriad of statistical measurements to figure out dem/rep numbers, likelihood of voting, accounted for demographics, etc. ad nauseam to come out with a pretty damn good lead for Trump in FL. I knew for a fact he was winning, and all the pollsters had was their phonecalls and D+ oversampling.
The problem is, the data I was able to source only accounts for party affiliation, which I knew was a flaw, but I figured republicans wouldn't vote THAT out of party lines, and if anything, more D's would vote R.
Am I wrong? Did I waste my autistic focus? If Reps are voting for Killary at a 28% rate, Florida and the election as we know it is lost.
Even the Jews at 538 think its numbers don't add up.
Luis Ramirez
> Shilling this hard for Drumpf
Why don't you just go out and vote to make sure that shit becomes a reality, instead of answering to poor quality b8?
Evan Morgan
Except that for the past 6 elections dems have won something of the number of 18 states consistently, meaning if Hillary follows that trend, and Trump loses Florida, the election would already be over.
The same goes for NC.
Leo Thomas
Do you understand what threat of regression is? In retard language for you, it means they know they oversampled and future polls will show it going down. So yes we know what oversampling is
Jaxson Phillips
Lets see even one page of this painstaking process
Cooper Brown
ok
but he will still win FL
Austin Young
haHAAAAAASUCKAHHH
CTR B T F O B T F O B T F O B T F P
John Wilson
Thank you user this is what I was looking for
The data I have says Trump is winning, but I can't find a good source on the independent split -- and they seem to be the people who're gonna decide the FL result
Supposedly D's are voting Trump at 6% rate but this seems low to me
Lincoln Jenkins
From methodology section:
>online interviews were conducted from October 25-28, 2016 among panelists from six leading online opt-in panel providers who were matched to the TargetSmart voter file.
What does this even mean?
Caleb Wood
Here is a screenshot of when I first started
I have the full dataset on my other computer that I can get access to tomorrow
I've checked the proportions for each county numerous times and they're holding steady i.e. the numbers are changing but the % lead is not
which is why I freaked out about these obviously outlier numbers -- Trump is winning -- ostensibly, but not if the proportion of reps voting for Killary are insane
Hunter Stewart
About as accurate as the polls on drudge that say Trump won every debate 90%-10%.
Michael Wright
It targeted the people who take online surveys for a living. You can make a couple hundred a month doing it.
Jonathan Watson
Are stories like this warming us to for voter fraud? I'm about to place a bet on this, but I'm scared of the steal Sup Forumsacks.
Ayden Williams
A bet on whom?
I don't believe any polls except the data I've sourced. Also, the data I've seen about independents, who are seemingly deciding this whole thing, gives Trump the advantage in Florida by quite a lot
Also bear in mind that a lot of the algorithms pollsters are using are giving Hillary the same turnout odds as Obama, all the while black early voting in FL is down markedly and white male vote in FL is up 15-18% iirc
pic unrelated
Aiden Torres
Floridian here. I literally haven't seen a single Hillary sign. Technically still a democrat since I was too lazy to swap over so plenty of blue that will be voting red too. Republicans like to vote on election day.
Sebastian Jones
Face it. It's over Sup Forums. Moderate Repubs are jumping ship to Clinton. This will be the story of the race. Many of them probably even told pollsters they'd stick with Trump, didn't want to seem disloyal, but when it came time to go into that voting booth, they had to go with the sane choice.
Ayden Baker
>rigging the votes is crazy you dummy
>Clinton up by 8
REMINDER TO ASK FOR PAPER BALLOTS
Nathaniel Price
> trusting polls at this point
What's happening: > a few cucks vote Dem. > based Republicans vote Trump and tell polls they voted Clinton
You could feel Obamas momentum in 2012 the same way you can feel a Trump win now. You might just get saved by a blessed human molotovcocktail so stop reposting biased media polls you faggot.
Austin Ortiz
>Face it. It's over Sup Forums. Moderate Repubs are jumping ship to Clinton.
Thank you NERD VIRGIN for:
CORRECTING THE RECORD O R R E C T I N G
T H E
R E C O R D
Candidate CLINTON and the C.T.R. Initiative have deposited 2 Shekels into your account. PLUS L U S You've earned a chance at a BONUS* (((BONUS ROUND))) *IF D U B S: Lord KEK breeds the autism out of your line.
T R I P S: You've never seen pussy; not even your Moms (pro-tip: YOU NO LONGER EXIST).
Q U A D S or Higher: Hillary dies in prison.
Gavin Adams
Bet on Florida for Trump.
I just keep seeing youtube vids of cunts cheating in 10000 different ways.
I don't know why someone doesn't just design a foolproof system, that's open and completely audit-able - I'm a 28yo software engineer and I could design the damn system myself.
David Myers
I thought the same thing until I saw the data myself. You're mostly correct insofar as Trump enthusiasm permeates all facets of civic life, but you have to remember that sequestered in the musty, welfare-laden shitdens of inner cities there are tons of niggers, spics, and white sympathizers.
For example, I would get 10 counties in a row with +5-15k for Trump, but one metropolitan area could set Trump back ~100k of the popular vote (the more nigs and spics, the higher the concentration of blue). So be careful in conflating enthusiasm with victory. EVERYONE must vote.
The smart money says "Never bet against a Clinton", lying, cheating bastards the both of them. The numbers say "maybe do."
