Florida poll: 28 percent of GOP early voters picked Clinton

thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/303910-florida-poll-28-percent-of-gop-early-voters-picked

Its over Trumpcucks

Other urls found in this thread:

scribd.com/document/329698329/TargetSmart-William-Mary-Florida-Poll-of-Early-and-Likely-Voters
countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/793652553363972096
economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/06/daily-chart-14
twitter.com/NSFWRedditGif

why didn't they register as democrats if they were voting for Shillary Blinthong?

Drumpf btfo

>thehill

Why is there such minute details about early voting coming out, it's almost as if they want to create a narrative...

Sorry it wasn't one of those alt-cuck safespaces you people get your "news" from

Wow a bunch of geriatric jews aren't voting for Trump

Im shocked

>The poll surveyed 718 people, 311 who said they voted early, through web and phone interviews.

Okay lol

scribd.com/document/329698329/TargetSmart-William-Mary-Florida-Poll-of-Early-and-Likely-Voters
Actual press release (that alone should say something) here. Excerpts:

>As of the morning of November 1st, 2016, TargetSmart tracks that 3,695,359 people have already cast their votes in Florida.
countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
Actual figure for the morning of November 1, 2016 is 2,023,002. If they can't get their most elementary data in order, maybe they're wrong on more counts.

>Leveraging TargetSmart’s proprietary voter file - that is updated daily through the early voting window - this poll reached a significant number of voters who have already participated.
They've used one of their own products to produce a set of personal data, and used that personal data to get in touch with people. I don't know about American privacy laws, but that's dodgy.

>Among those early voters (who were asked which candidate they had voted for), Clinton outpaces Trump by a 17-point margin, 55 to 38 percent.
I wonder how they account for the fact that Trump voters are less likely to want to answer questions and therefore more likely to slam the receiver down or close their browser when asked who they voted for

>The TargetSmart/William & Mary Poll was conducted using a blended web/phone data collection approach. As weighted, 530 online interviews were conducted from October 25-28, 2016 among panelists from six leading online opt-in panel providers who were matched to the TargetSmart voter file. As weighted, 188 telephone interviews were conducted from October 27-30, 2016 to supplement the online sample, with telephone numbers for targeted populations being selected at random from the TargetSmart voter file.
So, why did they bring up "as of the morning of November 1st, 2016"?

>poll
>100 sample size
The votes have been cast, there is a reason why they are not counting those.

>These early vote data were weighted to reflect population parameters on TargetSmart Partisanship Score, TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout Score, age, gender, party registration and media market of the overall population of early voters in Florida who had participated as of October 31.
In other words: it wasn't enough to find people willing to tell some political hack company who they voted for - they actually adjusted the data they did receive to make it more Clinton-friendly.

>TargetSmart is the leading provider of political data that enables campaigns and organizations to successfully communicate with large audiences, and personalize outreach.
>to successfully communicate with large audiences, and personalize outreach.
Literally, literally pay-for-outcome polling.

Then, they come to the questions asked.
>Please indicate how confident you are about each of the following
>Your vote in the November 2016 election will be counted as you intended - total confident 86%, total not confident 13%, don't know 1%
If we compare that to all other polls out there, which give a range of 40-70% confidence (Gallup's at 62%, Brookings Institution's at 43%), this should raise some eyebrows. Yup, they polled a group of mainstream-loving voters.

>LOL DUMB DRUMPFFAGS USING KEK AS AN INSULT
>LUL UR A KEK XD
Cognitive dissonance is not good for your mental health.

But now, now we're getting to the real good shit. The smoking gun, the best indication that this poll was meant to either influence or target strong Hillary supporters.

>As you may know, multiple women have recently said that Donald Trump groped or made inappropriate sexual advances towards them without their consent. Trump has denied these allegations, calling them lies. Do you believe that donald Trump committed these actions or not?
>Yes 49%, no 25%, don't know 26%

So basically, it's a push poll.

I only use it on pol because I know it upsets you

The 'independant' block are about 55% trump

A quarter of one third the pyramid is nothing.

great post toothpaste
some people on here are blind as fuck to criticism but some/most of this shit is straight propaganda if you look into it

I just don't understand these press releases. Trump is clearly going to win Florida, what does this even achieve?

>I'm not a retard, I'm just pretending

yeah but DRUMPFTPFTF XDDD

>surveyed 718 people
Ha.

There's a lot of good criticism on both sides, but I've got to say that I've never seen polling this dishonest.

>Hey, can we ask you a few questions?
>What is your age and what is your race? [point where 25% of Trump supporters slam the phone on the receiver or exit the browser]
>Are you a Republican, a Democrat or an Independent? [point where another 10% of Trump supporters slam the phone on the receiver or exit the browser]
>Have you heard about the several women accusing Trump of horrible sexual crimes, while he's calling them all liars? [point where another 10% of Trump supporters slam the phone on the receiver or exit the browser]
>Golly gee, Hillary is wrecking him even with people who told us they were Republicans and sat through our loaded questions!

...

They got Rubio's massive florida primary victory right, so it's looking pretty bad for Trump. I'm highly concerned.

It's a company that, in its own words:
>enables campaigns and organizations to successfully communicate with large audiences, and personalize outreach
Call me paranoid, but I'd say the local Democratic establishment pulled a few strings or lined a few pockets to get some good news out in this time of demoralization.

Is this image implying that ES isn't GOAT?

>SurveyMonkey
>It's literally fucking nothing

Nicely memed, OP.

>point where 25% of Trump supporters slam the phone on the receiver or exit the browser

How do you know this as fact?

Haha. Nov. 8 is gonna such a wonderful day. Cucks crying and committing mass suicide. The salts will flow harder than that of Brexit.

Shut down the thread. It's not true as per the NYT.

It's a figure of speech, but it's well known in polling that your data become skewed if you have a response rate of

It's true, this poll is a huge outlier in more ways than one (not just the number of Republicans supposedly voting for Hillary, but also the number of people saying they trusted the counting process, which in this poll was a whopping 86% compared to 62% in a Gallup poll and 43% in a Brookings Institution poll)

twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/793652553363972096

Unsurprisingly, this story is at best immensely misleading to flat-out wrong.

/thread

This doesn't make any sense.
I really don't believe there is a "shy trump" effect going on. Depending on where you live, you're actually far more likely to see Trump signs than Hillary signs, even in blue states. The AM radio does nothing but openly support Trump.

From what I remember of the brexit polls, remain and leave were both very close even as far back as a month.

>I really don't believe there is a "shy trump" effect going on.
Well, I do. There are many vocal Trump supporters, but there are also many who really don't like him but hate Hillary even more and will hold their noses while voting for Trump. They're not going to want to answer questions about who they support, because (I) their heart's not in it and (II) they have a well-documented, irrational fear of social judgement that they somehow lose when casting their actual votes (which is what "Shy Tory" originally referred to).

>From what I remember of the brexit polls, remain and leave were both very close even as far back as a month.
The significant thing is this. Remain was always about 5-10 points ahead in telephone polls, and it was speculated that this was precisely because, even though Leave was more vocal, moderate Leave supporters didn't exactly want to shout their opinion from the rooftops. This poll also used a lot of telephone polling. Another significant thing is, as I said, that private nonpartisan exit polls (but polls that did depend on asking people what they had voted) found that a comfortable Remain victory was going to happen, so investors bought a ton of GBP only to panic when the first real results started to come in.

Just wait

Everything you said in your first paragraph can also be applied to unenthusiastic Hillary supporters.

>Remain was always about 5-10 points ahead in telephone polls

I'm looking at economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/06/daily-chart-14 and while it does show a significant difference between the online polls and telephone polls from September till May, both types of polls in the last month had very similar results.

I'm sure the GOP is having the best turnout in over a decade because they're so excited to vote for Shillary. Seriously this is a fake story trying to control the narrative that Hillary's getting fucking destroyed in early voting.

Less so; for all her faults, Hillary is still the more socially acceptable option.

NIGGGGGGERRRSS

>A new (((poll)))
Lol maximum discardement

This is very highly dependent upon where you live. If you're going to be scolded by people by saying you're voting for Trump, you're likely living in a blue state that won't flip or near a university. Everywhere else, especially the rural areas/midwest, are solidly trump and have no problem letting others know.