What are the chances Trump takes Pennsylvania?

Asking for PredictIt. I have made a hefty amount of coin off this election, but I have Trump not taking Pennsylvania. What do you autists think?

Pic sort of related, inb4 >Nate Plastic

I don't like him either but it is a good OP pic

Other urls found in this thread:

fayobserver.com/news/local/hundreds-in-cumberland-county-cast-ballots-on-early-voting-sunday/article_ce940c7a-bf1c-5727-9535-fe716d3880b0.html
archive.4plebs.org/pol/thread/85678300/#85678367
twitter.com/NSFWRedditGif

I heard there was going to be a transit workers strike on Nov 8, which would mean Dems couldn't bus around voters and shit.

IF, and that's a big if, this is true, then Trump has probably a 70% chance of taking the state.
Otherwise ya, you made the right bet by saying he won't win PA

Here is my analysis. It's from way back in August but it not only still holds but recent data from NC seems to corroborate that.

Bottom line is: as long as black turnout is down by some 10 to 20% he takes PA.

Sauce

In case you guys missed the first 100 times I posted this:

Now, why did I mention NC? Because its data seem to corroborate the "blacks down, independent white surge" theory that would give Trump PA.

Pic related has 4 interesting pieces of data right after Sunday's "Souls to the Polls" [1] traditional democrat call to polls for the black people, all comparisons between same day totals from four years ago.

> top left: democrats are slighly down, republicans slighly up and independents way way up (over a third more than in 2012)
> bottom left: whites are up, blacks are down, even with the stronger weekend of black vote that was yesterday
> bottom right: black proportions are down and whites up every day in comparison with 2012
> top right: considering only in person the democrats are even lower and republicans and independents even higher than combined with absentee ballots

While it is not possible to know who exactly got the votes there are a few theories, some more likely than the others

1) white republicans crossing party lines and independents are voting for Hillary

or, much more likely

2) depressed turnout for minorities and lack of enthusiasm for Hillary combined with the flock of independents and white republicans for Trump (mirroring the primaries) give a clear advantage for Trump at the early voting in NC

The later is much more likely and I hope this put the "> NC early voting good for democrats" or "> look at the polls, she's winning early voting" are put to rest for now.

[1] fayobserver.com/news/local/hundreds-in-cumberland-county-cast-ballots-on-early-voting-sunday/article_ce940c7a-bf1c-5727-9535-fe716d3880b0.html

Colorado and New Hampshire are more likely to flip. After Nevada goes red, he only needs one of those two to win.

I put it at 50/50 at this point. A lot depends on just how big the Republicans can blow up the Obamacare issue. Open enrollment just started and people are getting whiplash from how high their rates have gone up.

My parents are going to be paying the equivalent of monthly rent on a small apartment in downtown Chicago for the privilege of breathing. For healthcare they can't fucking use because the deductible, which was too high already, has gone even higher.

the strike already started

And Nevada should go red when the new polls come out, either this morning or this afternoon. The slope is only steepening.

Trump will absolutely take it because he's the best choice and KEK WILLS IT and if he doesn't take it it's because the poll is rigged.

>black voting down
>democrats down
>republicans up
>independents way up

Monster vote is real. Hope and pray that the voter fraud can't overpower it.

its actually happening lads

This is some really great work. Did you make all those graphs?

Thanks Portubro

Highly doubt it. The cities populated by nothing but blacks and liberal cucks are fueled by righteous indignation to vote for hillary since Trump is literally Hitler

>voter fraud
How about a false flag

A pretty good chance.
Black early voting is down 15% and PA is hit pretty hard with obamacare.

Wtf. Can't read any of that shit

Stop browsing on your phone faggot

>What are the Chances...?
>posts image that shows his chances

About 22% apparently.

>Nate Plastic

Dude has been wrong more than he has been right the past year

PA is all OC. NC charts are by other analyst, analysis is mine

Here you go: archive.4plebs.org/pol/thread/85678300/#85678367

lol

> Nate Helium
> Can't predict elections
> Can't predict baseball
> Can't predict the number of angles in a triangle
> Can't predict the number of sides in a ball
> Can't predict 5 o'clock at 4:55
> Can't predict the number of eggs in a carton of 12

>Nate Indium