It may all come down to NH guys, I'm up in Lincoln here, and I'm gonna start knocking on doors. Don't get comfortable...

It may all come down to NH guys, I'm up in Lincoln here, and I'm gonna start knocking on doors. Don't get comfortable, there's so many mass holes up here now, but really, if we can make new Hampshire red, and we can secure the presidency, that would mean so much guys, come on, really, if you're in nh, and you support Trump, get out there, knock on some doors and help Trump win.

Other urls found in this thread:

d279m997dpfwgl.cloudfront.net/wp/2016/11/Topline-2016-10-WBUR-NH-General-6-2.pdf
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nv/nevada_romney_vs_obama-1908.html
fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/
fivethirtyeight.com/
youtube.com/watch?v=fwLbDGX4qbk
twitter.com/NSFWRedditImage

Godspeed user. I believe in you and thank you for your effort !

Why not make a simple chart on Photoshop explaining why Trump is better than shillary and sliding it under doors?

Funny because most houses I see on the MA side of the border have trump signs.

except for boston, western mass, and fall river, most of the state is actually for trump. lots of places like lakeville are divided.

but we own you so MA is 100% hillary

shit sux, MA is the only state intelligent enough to realistically vote "no confidence" and it's not going to happen

Thinks looking up. Apparently this poll was the most accurate during the primaries too

You mean to tell me Democrats have California and New York ( 55 + 29 !!!!!! ) FOREVER and they still have a hard time beating the Republicans?

I don't see why they have r+3 when nh is d+1

Kek if NH goes Red then trump will have exactly 270. Imagine the butthurt.

it's a likely voter model, not a model based on party registration/affiliation.

I don't really know, my guess would be that they polled likely voters and seeing as the enthusiam for Trump is higher maybe that gives them the result? Might be totally wrong idk

i think that's the point.
who needs more than 270? it's waste!

ahead of schedule, under budget.
i can't wait for libs to chimp

It will be glorious. There will be literal riots spurred on by the media as it descends into freakout mode. Please God, let Trump win.

Finally, an electoral "map" that breaks down the stakes of this election clearly

yes, that's it.
instead of polling based on party affiliation they polled randomly and filtered out all poll participants who "aren't likely voters", then they self-reported party affinity or affiliation (depending on what was asked of them)

i don't know if you're being sarcastic
but anyways, this has always been up on 538

Florida should be the swinging dick on the red guy.

Just looked at the WBUR poll (pic related) and they have Repub +4 so idk if they just oversample to skew or if its really what we think

DO IT FOR HIM

>unskew those polls

I PUSH MY FINGERS INTO MY

Registered voters are R +3, check it out.

Live Free or Die NH bros

Get out and make people vote for Trump lazy ass. Bring proof of corruption to liberals (they won't vote) and talk about the good policies to the independents. Please!

Nevada is not going to go Trump. Early Voting numbers are better for Democrats than they were in 2012, when they comfortably won the state.

Nate's model does not account for early voting at all.

Unironically gassing all college towns and the ultrarich in Boston would help. All the Vietnamese Diaspora near me are pro Trump.

>why can't I have a qt like that

>Be Trump supporter
>Leave basement

pick one user.

>tattoos

You'll find a nice decent girl one day user.

I live in the area, NH is going red no question.

There's almost zero support for the left around here.

The leaf is right, early vote cripples Hillary in NC and slightly in FL, but in NV it's way higher. Unless people vote secretly for Trump, but that doesn't make sense.

WUBR
>These results are based on a survey of 500 likely voters in the 2016 General Election in New Hampshire. Live telephone interviews were conducted October 29 – November 1, 2016 via both landline and cell phone using conventional registration based sampling procedures. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.4 percentage points with a 95 percent level of confidence. The poll was sponsored by WBUR, a National Public Radio station in the Boston area.
d279m997dpfwgl.cloudfront.net/wp/2016/11/Topline-2016-10-WBUR-NH-General-6-2.pdf

High MOE, perhaps? Not a huge poll, either. But they said it's based on likely voters as well.

Then how come the polls show Trump leading in Nevada?

Is this the closest election in history or what?

A 269-269 is entirely possible at this point.

is there a breakdown/analysis for this somewhere?

in '12 the dems had the lead in early voting but election day shrank the lead by a lot.

This, I dont get where the fuck these Clinton voters are.

because he will win election day

of course, if he is already 200,000 votes behind from early voting he will still lose the state

Bump

polls hint at the final result.
D's usually do better than the polls in early voting
R's usually do better than the polls on election day

It didn't have to be close.

Any other Republican candidate would be running away with this election.

All we needed was a boring non-controversial nominee.

We picked Trump.

a tie or mcmullin/johnson taking a state and hanging the election is my fantasy outcome

Because he clearly has money,a job, social circle, and life.

Probably better looking too and smarter and more charismatic and taller.

Polls in Nevada are notorious for underestimating Democrat support. Do you think casino/hotel staff are at home when the polling companies call?

This is generally true, but it looks like 2012 is going to repeat itself.

all those other candidates sucked cock, so what is it you're complaining about?

Which of them would take the necessary action against illegal immigration? Do you think that Ted Cruz would be doing any better than Trump? Trump is buoyed by mass enthusiasm among the hardcore that wouldn't be there with creepy Ted.

>This is generally true, but it looks like 2012 is going to repeat itself.
you're saying this, but you're only saying it. any breakdowns or analysis anywhere, or is this just your gut telling you?

Not really, nogs turnout is shrinking by a good margin.

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nv/nevada_romney_vs_obama-1908.html

obama ahead by 2.8% in polling on RCP, almost 6.5% ahead in final vote.

Trump ahead in polls just over 1% on RCP.

Would still like a breakdown of early voting, though. There's been some good work on FL and NC early voting.

Ted Cruz would be crushing Hillary.

There is no "grab her by the pussy" tape on Cruz.

Cruz doesn't sound retarded. Cruz wouldn't rant and attack a former miss universe for weeks on end. Cruz wouldn't have sounded retarded in the debates.

I'm complaining because odds are Trump won't win and we could have beaten Hillary.

Any fucking bland generic candidate would be 12 points ahead of Hillary at this point.

Fucking Hillary is under FBI investigation over two separate matters. Yet, Trump may still lose.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/

And Latino turnout has gone up significantly.

This was Nate Copper's prediction at 6 Nov 2012. Romney already got fucked by a good margin.

is it possible for Sup Forums to be change a old sure Dem/Hilldog state to a new alternate/independet Kandidat state (GARY JOHNSOJILL STEINEVAN MCMULLINDARRELL CASTLEROCKY DE LA FUENTE)

can we MEMEMAGIC this...???

may all that is true but you still need balls to pull that up

cruz only appeals to a small fraction of the GOP so he'd be getting destroyed in the general.
so sorry about you spending all that dough on glenn beck merch

And Cruz has 0 appeal.

He's not famous, not popular and didn't even defend closed borders before Trump brought It up.

Stop crying. Trump is our man.

>Pennsylvania
>blue

Except latinos aren't 90% democrat plantation drones. Most cuban latinos support Trump, and in Florida a lot of latinos vote conservative.

>fivethirtyeight.com/
i meant actual analysis, not shit from nate tin who can't even perform basic addition or subtraction

His analysis is legit, I expect little change from his model.

his "prediction" is based on polls and his pro-democrat slant
the polls are assuming a straight line from '04 to today for demographic participation, which is black turnout even higher than '12 and white turnout same or lower than '12. But the opposite has been true.

also, you're showing the general election. I'm wondering about NV

Trump is UNAPPEALING to more voters than he's appealing. He's polarizing.

Hillary is polarizing and unlikeable.

Zero appeal is what we needed. Trump has negative appeal.

Cruz appeals to all of the GOP. Trump hasn't even been able to get the numbers of Romney or McCain with Republican voters.

Cruz would've had no problem.

I have 0 fucking clue how anythings going to turn out because lord knows everything thats going to come out in the next 5 days.

Then why did Trump beat Cruz?

it's autistic modeling based on autistic polls with fudge(packer) factors that lean results democrat.

he had MI at 99%+ chance going to clinton in the primaries and also said that it would be mathematically impossible for trump to gain presumptive nominee status by the middle of may (he got there in early may)

the guy does numbers, not politics.

>his pro-democrat slant
[citation needed]
He's been giving Trump a much better chance of winnig than everyone else essentially.

Because the GOP isn't the majority of the US.

>can't win with republicans
>will somehow win general
i've never seen such sore losers on the internet. even berners have been less sour.

>investigation means there guilty meme
then trump is a child rapist

His model is the most Trump friendly one by a long shot. PEC has Trump at 1%.

Latinos in Nevada are overwhelmingly Democrat.

Well, he got the 2012 election with 51 states on 51. I'd give him a shot. I think that Democrats will have lower turnout too, let's see what happens, but he gives Trump 35% chances of winning (fairly encouraging).

>Cruz doesn't sound retarded

Don't oversell yourself m8

Mfw i live in maryland and me and most people i know are voting for trump.. but alas our votes wont matter since its gonna be blue here.

Anything a UK user can do?

there wasnt a single poll with bernie up it wasnt his fault

Voting for him in NJ
>probably wasted
> fuck it, red NJ

I've always been fairly confident NH would go red. Really bolstered by a ClintonCampAnon who said "an unexpected N state will flip according to internal polling" last week.

Find this man and let him know you disapprove of him: youtube.com/watch?v=fwLbDGX4qbk

It will help Trump win the popular vote. We want a victory both in the electoral college and the popular vote, so Hillary has no grounds to complain.

it wasn't 50/50. More like 6/6. By election day, it's obvious how pretty much every state is going except a few.
He's not impressive. He just has the best graphics.

Do you really think Republicans would have won with Rubio or Cruz?

Give me a break. The Republicans did the right thing in nominating an Independent (which is what Trump is), gives them the best shot. Especially a populist independent.

that's why i say he does numbers (and he does them poorly) and not politics.

this election isn't "just another election" like the last 6 or 8 have been.

I live down in exeter and south nh is split right the middle. Signs alternate between trump and clinton

>Do you really think Republicans would have won with Rubio or Cruz?
notice how the cruzlim cites trump's pussy grab tape.
He actually cares about that language in a private conversation.
these people are fucked. they're more interested in not swearing than in actually winning

Yes. Literally anybody but Trump would be wiping the floor with Shillary. Literally anyone but Hillary would be wiping the floor even harder on Trump. They are both literally the only candidates either of them has a chance against

You only have that perception because they didn't bother to run negative ads and media blitz against Trump, but they would have done that to any republican.

I'd rather get the dual 1080's

>Ted Cruz would be crushing Hillary.
lmfao, he'd get destroyed

dems would go full:
>muh gays
>muh war on women
>muh abortion
>muh evil christian theocracy
>muh trickle-down
>muh dangerous far-right radicalism

if even Silverstein shows him that close to winning NH then he has it in the bag

That may be true, but it's undeniable that a shitload more dirt sticks to Trump than would stick to Cruz, Rubio, Kasich, Carson, or Bush.
None of them said half the things that Trump did that the public finds outlandish, none of them made it so easy to paint themselves as racist or xenophobic, and none of them are probably on tape talking about sexual assault in the way Trump did.
On top of that, all of them were FAR better debaters than Trump, and wouldn't have fucking blown it so hard in the first debate

>none of them are probably on tape talking about sexual assault in the way Trump did.
>sexual assault

of who?

You're a moron. I don't care if Trump on video killing a little girl and eating her internal organs.

Trump will lose because he's unpalatable to most of the country. But fuck off leaf.

Anyone else who was actually serious could have prevented a Hillary Clinton presidency.

A serious candidate wouldn't have a meme brigade on the internet consisting of 0.0000001% of the American electorate like Trump, but he'd still win in a landslide.

>he actually fell for this meme
hahaha holy shit kill yourself

And guess what faggot. You run one of these supposedly immaculate "true christian conservatives" and they get taken down by a single gaffe or national enquirer-tier rumor

>Trump will lose because he's unpalatable to most of the country.
So is Hillary. Have you not left the basement in the last month?

And none of it would've mattered because Hillary is so damn unpopular, unlikeable, and is under a criminal investigation.

People are LOOKING for an excuse to not vote for Hillary.

Trump isn't providing it to most voters.

This
The only reason Trump makes a difference is because he doesn't back down

There have been 1M scandals this time and every time the Republicans backed off like the cucks they are.

If it were anuone else, they would have apologized for nothing and that would end the race

You're an ignorant teenager and this is your first election.

Go back to masturbating to Japanese cartoons.

[TRIGGERED]

Are you retarded?

The ONLY reason Trump has ANY SHOT whatsoever is because Hillary is hated and no one wants to vote for her Trump.

Trump is actually making himself so shitty that people who DON'T want to vote for Hillary are voting for Hillary to stop Trump.

This wouldn't even be close if it were another candidate.

This is the correct answer for why Trump has been so successful.
DO NOT EVER apologize to leftists/SJWs. That's how they get power over you

Wrong. Rubio, Kasich, Jeb etc. wouldn't have lasted 5 seconds against the Clinton smear machine

Limiting this argument to Cruz since Bush, Kasich, Rubio etc are controlled opposition tier cucks who would agree with Hillary for 6 months and then bow out in late October over some fake "scandal" pushed by the Dems.

The only one willing and able (sorry sleepy Carson) to compete was Cruz. But he is reviled by cuckservatives just as much as Trump, and his Christfagging makes him a punching bag for the same Dem attack points we've seen every time for the last 30 years
>muh gays
>muh abortion
>muh evil Christian theocracy
>muh evil trickledown

PS daily reminder it's the #NeverTrump faggots who played into Hillary's hands and brought us to this point to begin with.