Based off polling, historical trends, demographics, early polling, and turnout predictions...

Based off polling, historical trends, demographics, early polling, and turnout predictions, this is what I believe the 2016 electoral map will look like between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

How accurate am I Sup Forums?

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fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/
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You are very far off reality. Prayers nigga

>You are very far off reality.

Look who's talking.

Open your eyes man shit is avalanching fast.

>completely unbased shit graph

I honestly think PA and NC will go trump. I really dont trust polling; Wikileaks has already proved they're cooking the poll results in favor of Clinton.

>I honestly think PA and NC will go trump.

You are obviously a retard

ROMNEY HAS IT IN THE BAG

DON'T BELIEVE THE POLLS

Trump is ahead in NV, NH, and NC. He'll likely get PA too.

Kek

Thank you for Correcting The Record for me. What was I thinking.

In early voting black turn out is down 15%. If voting day turn out is the same va and pa go red. There is also evidence youth turn out will be down 5% to 10%.

It's going to be surprising either way, how bad Trump's looses or by how much he wins.

Romney is not Trump.
Obama is not Clinton.

Even Nate Pigiron admits that Clinton's lead is not nearly as secure as Obama's was.

>Trump is ahead in NV, NH, and NC. He'll likely get PA too.

All those states are to close to cal.

NV has a bad polling history.

NC early voting is for Hillary, Trump already lost the state.

PA is her fire wall. Like saying New Jersey will go red.

hey Sup Forums how accurate is my electoral map

My point exactly. Ahead in polls that are skewed to boost Clinton's numbers.

>Romney is not Trump.

Trump is doing even WORSE than Romney among college educated whites, minorities, and women. So yeah he's doing even worse than Roney.

>Ahead in polls that are skewed to boost Clinton's numbers.

WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA IT'S ONLY REAL IF MY CANDIDATE IS WINNING

THERE IS A GIANT CONSPIRACY TO NOT GET MEME TRUMP ELECTED

WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

North Carolina isn't going blue

wrong.

>North Carolina isn't going blue

>Some people ACTUALLY believe this

That just proves that polls can be wrong by significant margins even when intentional bias is not a factor, Obama won by like 4 points.

>Obama won by like 4 points

Yes and Hillary will win by an even larger amount :D

Sure, shill.

I already voted for Johnson, jackass.

> giant conspiracy

Nope, just published documents that support me, not you.

Keep trying shill

>Historical data
I like trends, facts, and statistics as much as the next nerd but there's simply no historical precedent for the election we're seeing.
>First female democratic nominee
>former First Lady
>under investigation by the the FBI in the final week

VS

>eccentric billionaire
>0 political experience
>cult following making him highly resistant to scandals

I never thought he stood a chance but the electoral map is unpredictable at this point.

This is what I think will happen

Or

I think he will win NH, split Maine, and NC

Fun

Florida just needs to be blue as well.
Very solid map.

Can't debate facts. I mean look at the graph

>NH
>Maine 2
>North Carolina
>blue

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Change North Carolina and that extra Maine delegate and you've got the same prediction as me.

I don't think Michigan will flip red

Not shilling

Whatever you say CTR

I would love to see how you came to that conclusion.

It's the Obama 2012 map with Florida switched. Which means you're taking polling and early vote data into account, except you've got him losing in NC, a state he has probably 80% chance of winning right now (maybe higher). Historical trends sound good, but then you realize we've only had 56 Presidential elections and even fewer Presidents. Also, what qualifies as an "historical trend"? And by what manner were they determined to be relevant?

All polling data suggest either a massive Trump shift, or a massive shift in the guiding methodology of the polling itself. The first is fatal to Hillary Clinton's hopes of being President. It means the people really are being massively red-pilled by the FBI scandal, or have settled themselves with the idea of voting for Trump. The latter is much more dangerous, and could potentially be fatal to the Democratic party itself. It suggests the Trump voter never disappeared, that the Access Hollywood tape meant nothing, and the polling agencies were manipulating the polls to drive public opinion, rather than reflect it. The problem with this is simple: if the Trump voter remained a Trump voter throughout the scandals, it means they are aligned with Trump against the media and the Establishment, and have been since the beginning.

Anyone who unironically think Hillary can win this is an idiot.

This is it

Why so many dubs?

This is the most likely result, which is absolutely depressing.

>a state he has probably 80% chance of winning right now (maybe higher).

50.3% chance of winning.

I think it's fool's gold too, but in a landslide scenario he gets it

I think if he manages to woe Pittsburgh in the last 2 days, he can get PA
Otherwise, election day will come right down to how much people go out and vote and how much rigging can be avoided

I live in a county that leans Republican and I'm seeing a lot of support for Trump, Hillary signs are rare. Floridians are naturally crazy and fiery due to a number of demographic and geographic factors so I think they could easily gravitate to an anti-establishment populist like Trump. Remember that Florida just BARELY voted for Obama in 2012 (less than 1% margin), and that was with a super boring Republican and shit turnout for whites.

He needs to win Nevada

Even the (((RCP))) has Trump up in Nevada, kiwi.

This is what you're going to see. Something similar to this.

Based on what analysis?

What does a fucking peruvian know about anything that isnt being a subhuman turd? Go back to your mudhut and shut the fuck up.

TRUMP WILL RECEIVE 291 VOTES AS PREDICTED BY KEK

>Based on what analysis?

Five Thirty Eight you stupid faggot.

That's about what I think will happen. Colorado and Nevada may shift red out of nowhere though.

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Early voting is a landslide for Clinton in Nevada, and the majority of voting in Nevada is done early. Trump has a better chance at Colorado or Rhode Island than Nevada.

Why do you name your files polk?

Oh.

kek

Maybe, but the early vote isn't looking great for him. fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/

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Trump received the most republican votes ever. Don't be a fucking moron

>this again

maybe more Democrat/Independent Trumpers

Nh nv and nc are red, florida is blue by a small margin

What is this supposed to prove? Over the long term Hillary was projected to win but now shit is changing really fast just like EU

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Trump wins NC and NH but loses FL.

I live in Orlando, dead center of the I-4 corridor always talked about in election seasons. I have seen way more Trump support around here than Clinton. I've seen more Johnson support around here than Clinton.

Which leads me to believe she's going to lose FL, or her supporters know they're fucking retarded and aren't public about it at all.

>doesn't know non-college whites are the most important demo in the country

>Trump received the most republican votes ever.

Wow it's fucking nothing. He never got above 50%

>doesn't know non-college whites are the most important demo in the country

No you aren't faggot. Women are, 52% of the pop and vote more than men.

lel wouldn't count on it

NV is blue.

Trips of truth

My digits don't lie

nice proxy peru

That's all anecdotal evidence fueled by your emotions (what you want to be true). Trump has the more enthusiastic support, while Clinton's support may be less enthusiastic, but larger.

I already have an image called pol so I just went and put a k at the end
why not

considering how Iowa went for Obummer solidly both times, yet you have it red here, would lead me to belive you havent actually looked at the facts and history.

Just voted for Hillary in Georgia. I've never seen such a high turn out of democrats. The blacks were out numbering the whites 3 to 1. Trump is finished. There are few people who I hate more than Hillary, but Trump's stance on two policies was enough to make me vote for Hillary. You can't be denying climate change in the year 2016; that's an anti-science and anti-intellectual stance. And no, I don't want an expansion in our police state please.

On Hillary's first day, she will make a deal with Ecuador for Julian Assange's head. He will be extradited and executed for espionage. RIP Julian Assange.

It's supposed to prove Sup Forums is retarded and doesn't understand the difference between an electoral college and popular vote

Reminder for all of the eunuchs ITT

He said "Most Important", not "Most Irrational". Big difference.

Also, you faggots seem to forget that a large number of the 52% of women are under 18 or don't vote. Women are the first to make excuses why spending an hour in line at the polls is too much trouble.

highly innacurate.

hillary will be dead.

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Ok, that used to be my runescape name it felt weird af.

I already voted for Johnson.

What don't you faggots understand about that?

You can't trust historic polls - niggers won't vote for Clinton like they did Obongo

As of last night, Nevada was in the bag. Trump is ahead in Ohio and it is commonly acknowedged that he'll win it. Virginia and Pennsylvania were leaning Trump. We've known all along that half of Maine was headed Trump's way, so your leaving that out is bullshit. And today, I heard that even Michigan is in question.

Everything

Dude shut the fuck up, your country is sandwiched between Russia and the USA. Canada has never been relevant. Leave the trash talking to countries that have militaries and war experience. Your entire countries economy is smaller than California and Texas.

You're wrong on NC, PA, NH, NV and 1/2 of ME - Trump is taking all of those and possibly even MI

Also this

It's almost scary to see the similarities with 2012

>WI
>MI
>MN
>PA
>NH
>ME
>VA
>NC
>NV
>CO
>NM
>Blue

>flordia
>blue
>toothpaste

...

he's not winning PA. He has a good shot at FL

Dude unless all the liberals in the state commit suicide - there is no way on God's green earth that Trump is going to win MN. Those people are so ass backwards that a turnip in a pantsuit could run as a Democrat and still win....

Keep dreaming turd....

>Rhode Island

Stick to sheep, no fucking chance there unless he really does win 100% of the vote.

The reluctant "I guess I have to" voters don't swing elections, you need enthusiasm to win.

>Nevada blue
>NH blue
>Utah red
Mcmuffin is coming faggots!

If he wins this is probably the most likely way it'll happen. He's not going to win though.

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