FLORIDA IS RED AGAIN

I BELIEVE I CAN FLYYYYYYYY

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elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2016/office/president
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6022.html
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...

is this real? don't get my hopes up like this you sick bastard.

TRUMPED

...

All according to my pla- I mean, our plan...

is that the meme magic spiral from the kek statue?!?

rcp has it blue. nate bronze is wrong s usual.

>I only believe nate magnesium when my candidate is winning

how accurate are the polls considering the apparent surge in latino desire to vote?

if Nate Silver gives Trump +2% chances of winning than it must be true, he wouldn't help trump

FUCK I SEE IT

The Latin American vote will win Hilary the state

rcp is polls only, nate argentina's model takes other factors into consideration

His commentary is shit, but his statistical analysis is alright. His problem is that he can't remove himself from the equation, he has to get commentary in and the world has to line up with his beliefs.

He'd be great if he were an unbiased observer, but he views himself as a seer who's able to analyze situations, rather than just looking at raw data. He's bought into his own hype.

In other words, he has liberal brain disorder, they're incapable of removing themselves in such a manner. If somebody's who's anti-candidate says your candidate is likely going to win a state, it's a good thing.

Must mean Hillary will win the general.

Or are the polls only accurate when your guy is winning?

BTW Nate also shows trump as 49.9% likely to win nevada and with 46.7% of the votes, tied with Clinton, +Nate gives trump 52% in NC and 38% in NH, but RISING REALLY FAST

Trump is rising in most stats, and he could turn more than the minimum he needs given polls have a margin of error

>periodic swings
Hmm polls aren't skewed

NO COMPLACENCY, NO SURRENDER! ACTUAL CONFESSION OF GUILT FROM THE CLINTON CAMPAIGN TO LYING AND BRIBERY IN OFFICE:
→
Go to reddit.com/r/The_Donald/ and ctrl+f qatar, the post there is at 52nd place. Upvote it and do your part to destroy the Clinton Regime!

Why does Nate Cardboard still have NH as blue when he's currently ahead there?

If he wins all of the leaning red states + NH, he wins the election

QUICK, GET YOUR SEMEN READY!!! WE NEED TO DO SOME MORE SPIRIT COOKING!!!!!

i.4cdn.org/wsg/1476858738321.webm

>puts hotels in cuba
>is a plant for a former KGB operative
>Florida
K

the national one changas faster when state ones change too, once trump flips NH he'll sudenly jump to over 50%

The site even says, in the analysis, that Clinton's national lead might be stabilizing, but that's not true on the states, and the states matter, not national voting

He usually just does look at the data, but with a candidate as unprecedented as Trump, he couldn't resist the temptation. It was too convenient to say "we can ignore the polls since they only applied to traditional candidates so far".

Florida was always red.

>Or are the polls only accurate when your guy is winning?
It's not "accurate" or "inaccurate", it's slid 11 points towards Hillary by oversampling Democrats to a ridiculous amount. If Hillary is winning by less than 11 it means she's losing. If Trump is winning it means Hillary is losing by at least 12 points.

So right now Trump is going to lose? and your only hope is him magically flipping NH for no apparent reason at all?

Cool.

he uses different polls, or different weights, plus his model is not polls-only but factors other stuff

That's not how oversampling works.. good lord.

>nate silver

not a source, but the fact he says florida is red even with his bias is astounding

>your only hope is him magically flipping NH for no apparent reason at all?

see
fucking retard

>believing Nate Boron
I'd rather have him showing it's blue, because that would mean it will actually turn red.

NH is a battleground state and in some polls hillary leads by less than 1% ctr, it is very within reach, and we all still believe polls are not taking Trump's base of new voters into consideration when calculating turnout because they're not "likely voters", plus the fact that less people answer telephone polls nowadays, etc etc. Keep with the discussion

Some of the polls even use a higher turnout for Clinton than Obama, which is patently ridiculous

I'M WALKING ON SUNSHIIIIIIIINE
OOOOOOOH
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#now

That's what makes him a hack who sucks at his job, and he needs to learn from it and improve in the future.

> accuracy
> precision

The polls are innacurrate, but they have some precision, faggot

Clearly GOP oversampling going on in those polls.

Doesn't matter. He's getting destroyed in the early voting in NV.

Florida has always been red. People have been obsessed with him for a while now.
Trump everywhere! Zero Clinton signs or stickers. If Florida isn't red then something is wrong.

When will RCP no toss ups reflect this? I want a 270 map

Republicans also going up in the senate race

The trend now is pro-Trump

Florida here, only places that are for hillary are tampa area, and miami area because they're full of spics. Spics are too lazy too vote anyways. Florida is full blown trump.

Every candidate says that every year

THE POLLS, THEY DON'T GRASP THE ENTHUSIASM AND NEW VOTERS GETTING EXCITED FOR , THIS YEAR IS DIFFERENT, THE POLLS HAVE IT WRONG

Drumpf is going to lose, and he is going to lose HARD.

Just voted in Florida

>Nowcast
>Achmed thinks he knows shit about shit

6/10 Aussie. You're almost reaching Canadian levels now.

MAGA is magic

You are a disappointment to shitpost country. Kill yourself.

> Nate Silver

Florida fag here. This is no surprise to me.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/new-hampshire/

It's true, based Nate proved it. Not all polls are equal, lad.

>bigly

Based on polling, Trump has a very good shot. It's about a third currently, and will be closer to 40-60 soon. Those aren't bad odds.

Based on common sense, Clinton's not going to get the turnout Obama did, especially with blacks, and Trump's has statistically proven new voter registration and party affiliation changes that aren't accounted for in polling. It's going to be especially pronounced in Michigan and Pennsylvania, I promise you, kangaroo jockey.

I'd be feeling very good if I were Trump. He went from a 1% chance of getting the nomination to a 40% chance of winning the Presidency. That's pretty damn good.

oy vey gee i wonder why goyim

why could this be

It's only accurate if Shillary is winning right?

POOPOO PEEEPEEE

I added a third E because that's how much I'm going to piss on Hillshills

except it's actually true faggot

It's not about Trump's enthusiasm, but Hillary's, plenty of polls think she will have larger turnout than Obama, or equal turnout, which is absurd. Polls that don't assume this tend to show Trump doing better

see some of the relevant stuff here youtube.com/watch?v=dpaiuXNEWUE (inb4 infowars: messenger irrelevant, message relevant), and keep in mind some of the things that are different now than 4 years ago, like smaller answer rates for phone polls due to changes in technology

how about check the poll's accompanying pdf instead of just spouting shit?

Sorry that the truth that Hillary is gonna dominate NV triggered you so much Trumpster. Better luck in 2020.

Holy fuck

Miami is all trump, only niggers in broward vote hillary.

Of course if you oversample republicans, it will show Trump winning. The polls that show him winning are mostly right-wing Breitbart polls, Fox polls etc which oversample republicans to boost the trump campaign

>Or are the polls only accurate when your guy is winning?

who said they're accurate

SHADILAY

there is no FUCKING WAY MAN HOLY SHEEEIT

>Being this delusional
>Ignoring every point that I made
>Not using common sense with regard to this election versus 08 or 12
Stick to your own country, dipshit.

>I added a third E because that's how much I'm going to piss on all these salty liberals
FTFY
It's not just about hillshills anymore, as every democrat, by default, is dumb

romney fucked up hard, hillary's got emails and murders on her, this isn't even remotely comparable.

also worth noting
>NO ONE LIKES OBAMACARE

not so fast gringos ;)

senor trump will not win

Forget polls. Nobody cares about polls. GO VOTE.

GO AND VOTE.

>someone mentions that polls routinely oversample Democrats
>"b-b-but that's not how oversampling works!"
>someone posts polls that show Trump winning
>"b-b-but those polls oversample Republicans!"

Damn, aus, you really need to up your shitposting game. It's like you're not even trying.

Anyone ever notice those graphs are perfect mirror images of each other?

Someone should really dig into this. There's no way that's possible.

What does some nasty swede like you know about American politics? Go stone a woman to death just for farting.

...

The only poll that has had Trump winning for most of this election is the LA Times / USC poll.

Certainly not a right wing poll.

BTW, Outside of a couple of hosts, FOXNEWS supports Hillary.

Except polls have never been a reliable predictor of presidential outcomes.

Get out of this thread, you 'straya cunt.

It should also be noted for the millionth time this year that none of us gave a shit about Mittens until Paul got fucked over.

Apparently more than you burger.
"But muh Trump"
"But muh fake polls"
"But muh rigged"

What are they polling the same 100 people every time with the same exact x % of people changing their vote from one to the other?

It can't happen that way.

it's "chance of winning" dumbfuck

>Take a state that's 28% Dem and 30% Rep
>Poll is 37% Dem and 28% Rep
Use whatever buzzword you want, the polls are not a representation of the people. You will see on Tuesday.

Your problem is that I don't believe you. Nobody but people who already hate Hilldawg believe your nonsense conspiracy theories

The e-mails and 'murders' go into the Benghazi category of right-wing manufactured outrage.

NO NO NO NO NO AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

KEEP VOTING IN FLORIDA. TELL EVERYONE YOU KNOW.

praise kek

Nate Silver and Drew Linzer were both extraordinarily accurate in 2012.

elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2016/office/president

Both are now saying Hillary will win. I believe them over you.

That isn't how oversampling works.

Trump's challenge: If Clinton wins VA (leading +8), PA (+6), and NC (+3) then Trump would have to sweep FL, OH, IA, NV, AZ, CO, WI, and NH.

That is not going to happen.

h-

holy shit

>Nobody but people who already hate Hilldawg believe your nonsense conspiracy theories
>The e-mails and 'murders' go into the Benghazi category of right-wing manufactured outrage.
>says increasingly nervous man

K. you keep telling yourself that aussie.

I feel good about Florida after they caught the Broward County absentee scam and got a witness to provide a sworn a deposition.

Trump is leading in NH and NV you fucking retard.

S H A D I L A Y
H
A
D
I
L
A
Y

>The Latin American vote will win Hilary the state

Which is why Sup Forums's social media experts need to spread pic attached around.

#CocinaDelEspiritu

#ÉlEstáConNosostros

>#CocinaDelEspiritu

>#ÉlEstáConNosostros

#CocinaDelEspiritu

#ÉlEstáConNosostros

>#CocinaDelEspiritu

>#ÉlEstáConNosostros

#CocinaDelEspiritu

#ÉlEstáConNosostros

>#CocinaDelEspiritu

>#ÉlEstáConNosostros

>PA
>(+6)
What did he mean by this?

>Clinton NC +3

kek, not really, lad. Only on certain polls which are heavily GOP oversampled.

And this.

#CocinaSatanica

#ClintonContraCristo

>#CocinaSatanica

>#ClintonContraCristo

#CocinaSatanica

#ClintonContraCristo

>#CocinaSatanica

>#ClintonContraCristo

#CocinaSatanica

#ClintonContraCristo

>#CocinaSatanica

>#ClintonContraCristo

This will kill the Spanish-speaking vote -- whether Protestant or Catholic. And it's being reported that vote is surging. Thanks for the reminder based CTR shill.

kek predicted it, and we miss read it

Praise be

this is fucking gold

You mean the RCP averages?

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6022.html

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6004.html

(((538))) gave romney a 9% going into election day. Trump is at 36% and rising