DRUMPF'S ODDS HAVE GONE DOWN 2% IN THE LAST TWO HOURS AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

DRUMPF'S ODDS HAVE GONE DOWN 2% IN THE LAST TWO HOURS AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

FACE IT LADS DRUMPF'S DONE!

Other urls found in this thread:

nytimes.com/2016/10/13/upshot/how-one-19-year-old-illinois-man-is-distorting-national-polling-averages.html
realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/11/01/brexit_surprise_due_to_analysts_bias_not_numbers.html
youtube.com/watch?v=oelE6gTpSWI
twitter.com/NSFWRedditVideo

wat?

...

Nate Aluminum is not a valid source on Sup Forums.

Please post a valid source for your argument, or let your thread kindly die.

>iPad

You, buddy, being from the UK, should remember that polls closed with 85% of chance for REMAIN to win.

When the media and the stablishment makes you look like a deplorable subhuman, then you hide your vote. But thankfully, vote is still secret. I know you hate it but it's still, so people can vote for their preference freely. That's why the UK vote for LEAVE and why USA will vote for TRUMP.

Fucking Liar!

Sure sure.

>only 33% chance

AHAHAAHA LITERALLY IMPOSSIBLE FOR TRUMP TO WIN

Hardcore shitposting

LANDSLIDE INCOMING

Doesn't that map suggest he's won though? Are they basing his likelihood of losing on him only needing to lose one of the states he seems to have won?

With that map he would be short a few votes

>Doesn't that map suggest he's won though?

What? No. He needs to win another blue state without losing any red, which is why his % is lower

I'm not sure why nate has NH blue

RCP is giving Trump a lead there

I bet you voted remain huh?

Check again CTR

The downfall of the conspiratorial-minded is how easily its used against them.

Clinton has been leading in the polls solidly for a month, and suddenly this week the race has tightened down to a horse race? In polls that occurred *before* the FBI stuff?

The only media bias is in selling ads, you know this but you ignore it when it doesn't suit your personal narrative. A blowout election doesn't sell ads so, amazingly enough, an election that was looking to be a sure thing for Clinton is now a coin toss. Doesn't that make you the least bit suspicious?

Put it this way, all those polls of Clinton up +9 in the previous month, why were you so dismissive of those polls but polls showing Clinton tied with Trump, those polls can be trusted? Why would the biased polls behave this way the week before the election?

You're being manipulated, and when the manipulation is at its *most* obvious you're not only missing it, you're going out of your way to ignore it.

HILLARY BTFO

>Nobody gets 270
>Ryan save the day
>Grand old party is saved
>Economy is ruined because FED
>Democrats blame Trump
>Trump blames the globalist because Alex said so
> Rand wins on 2020
> LP BTFO
> Ends the FED
> Gold Standard
> BitCoin BTFO
> Bill gets Beheaded on exile for degeneracy
> Huma gets Beheaded on exile because Imperialist spy
> Nobody knows where Shillary is
> Wiener appears on Hansen VS Predator

SCREENCAP THIS

>comparing betting odds with election odds

wew lad

Nate Arsenic wtf

Pretty stupid

FiveThirtyEight is a lot more rigorous and methodologically advanced than the majority of polls used in the EU referendum.

There were also polls conducted by polling companies that predicted the correct result but were not released as they were too much of an outlier. Nate Silver has in the last couple of days specifically criticised such wilful obfuscation of evidence, so he remains reasonably reliable.

If he gives Trump that poll it'd probably push Trump into ~40% odds of winning alone. A sample size of nearly 3,000 is pretty damn hard to ignore, it's 2-6 times the sample size of several polls in high use. Better adjust how much Trump's winning by to lower its impact on the odds!

>new hampshire blue
>maine and nevraska counted as single states

New Hampshire is red and Maine CD 2 will put Trump on 270 EV

This election will be extremely close

NBC has a poll that is +6 Hillary with sample size of 40000

So two polls with huge sample sizes get results 12 points away from each other.

Nobody has a god damn clue how this election will go.

Its an adjustment based on all other information available.
He also adjusts down Hillary numbers that are like +7.

3000 is tiny compared to 40000

methodology doesn't matter when polls are wrong due to constantly insulting one side and make them worried to tell their vote

Nigel Farage admitted defeat on brexit night and went to bed.

How did that work out again?

It's not over until it's over. Trump is so controversial that the shy conservative voter effect is likely to be stronger. Those states right in the balance could be taken by Trump once the public can vote in secret and not face all the SJW judgement of those around them for saying anything bad about Hilliary.

The problem with those campaigning against Trump is that like Brexit, they have spent too long telling people to shut up for being racist and trying to humiliate them. Now it's very hard to determine how much support their opposition has because they are quieter.

I'm honestly sad.

I know most polls are biased but you simply can't deny that Trump currently has no chance.

The general american population has been so subverted by cultural marxism that no amount of incrimination e-mails will make a difference when a female is running against a proclaimed chauvinistic patriarchal white male.

The Empire is gone.

Enjoy your American Dilma. We all lived to see the American empire start it's free fall into destruction.

That's because there is one 19 year old black voter who is voting 100% for Trump.

The USC poll weighs his vote 300x heavier than other voters for some odd reason. That brutaly shifts the young black voters in favor of Trump in that poll.

Which is not the reality. Silver is probably adjusting for that.

nytimes.com/2016/10/13/upshot/how-one-19-year-old-illinois-man-is-distorting-national-polling-averages.html

realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/11/01/brexit_surprise_due_to_analysts_bias_not_numbers.html

tldr Brexit lead in the polling averages and won. Trump does not lead in the polling averages. The two situations are not comparable.

Pfft check again

nothin personnel CTR

still 33%

Thats a lot more then i personally would have guessed as a trump fan.

So thank you OP.

Make America Great Again.

Stop posting these fake maps

>Michigan
>blue

538 had an article about the Trump "secret voters" and how they can only have so much of an impact because there is no corresponding huge uptick in republican voter registration. If anything, there has been a surge is democratic registrations and republican registrations are down this election cycle.

Now registrations votes, if those dems dont turn out then the extra registrations mean nothing. But polls *do* take into account how many people in the country are self-identifying as republican, Trump-supporter or no, and there is no massive upswing in republicans out there in the country, if anything their numbers are down, which is precisely why the electoral map looks so scary to the republican party in the 21st century. The polls are already assuming all those repubs who won't admit to voting for Trump will indeed vote for Trump, and the results still look bad for the GOP even with that assumption.

If anything, I suspect you'll see a marked drop in republican voting this year from the 60% of the repubs who did not support Trump in the primary. Some of them came around, some will hold their nose just to vote against Hillary, but voting against someone is historically a low-motivational reason for going out to vote, it always results in low turnout. In all fairness, you'll see some of that on the dem side too, but which side will see more?

I understand your wanting to point at Brexit. Ignore the fact the polls that "predicted" a Remain result were within the margin of error, with several downplayed polls showing Leave was in the lead. Nevermind that the same sort of systemic error you see in Brexit would need to be occurring in not just once place in the US but across all polls across all of the swing states. Are dozens of polls in 9-12 swing states all wrong? Possibly, its not literally impossible, but the odds are way way less likely for all the electoral collage polls to be wrong than a singular Brexit result prediction to be wrong.

BLUMPF DRUMPF A PRUMPF CUMPF IS FINUMPFED
POLUMPF BTFOMPF

Additionally, the EU referendum was unprecedented. There was nothing to reliably compare the polls to, so polling error was always a high chance.

Haha classic faggot op

youtube.com/watch?v=oelE6gTpSWI

He's getting stronger

1 out of 3 isn't terrible honestly. I suspect his odds are better, but it's still very possible for him to win even with these odds.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

D-DELET THIS

...

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
My SUPER EXCELLENT fellow AMERICANs, if Hillary Clinton is elected president of the USA here’s the timeline of events that will follow:
1. Inauguration.
2. Media ejaculates in its own mouth.
3. Massive purge of coco butter residue from white house, aka “Operation COCO BUTTER ABATEMENT”.
4. FBI Indicts her & her crew.
5. TIM KAINE becomes president of the USA.
6. Media ejaculates in its own mouth again.
7. George Soros wraps his own son tightly with 3M Super 33 electrical tape. George then slathers olive oil all over his son who is now tightly wrapped into the shape of a cock. George then inserts his own tightly wrapped, heavily lubricated son into his own ass. George then ejaculates into his own mouth.
8. Beyonce' wraps Jay-Z very tightly in 3M SUPER 33 electrical tape. She wraps him so tight he takes the shape of a giant black penis with a monkey face. She then slathers him with copious quantities of XtraVirginOliveOil. Now Jay-Z's entire body is a slippery black-tape-wrapped penis shape. Beyonce' then inserts Jay-Z, in his entirety, into her fat, half black ass hole. Beyonce' then ejaculates into her own mouth.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Why the hell is NC light blue and AZ gray? Early voting data looks super promising for Trump and even polling looks good for him in both states.

Actually their prediction has stabilised in the last few days, which is an indication that voters are decided now, if 538's model is correct.

Nate Tin himself has said they're taking into account the uncertainty of this election, which is why they have Trump with a roughly 20% higher chance than other predictors right now.

If (a big if) 538 does what they did for 2008 and 2012, Trump has a mountain to climb with ~45 predicted electoral college difference. There would need to be major polling errors, but that's possible considering he's such an unknown quantity.

Yes, I remember in 2012 the media went bananas over how the election was the tightest one in American history and literally no one could predict it. A tight race sells more papers and gets more clicks.

Actually, there are more registered Republicans this year in Florida and Pennsylvania than in 2012 and early voting turnout shows Democrats trailing their 2012 levels by as much as 6% (see NC) but it probably correlates with the black voter turnout being down.

I would actually be terrified if Nate put trump as the predicted winner. if he was smart he would have utilized his cursed meme to infect the campaign by putting him as the winner.

you think he would have realises after the cubs. oh stupid stupid Nate.

Nate's model is highly volatile and if 2 good polls from respected pollsters come out, Trump would easily rise above 40%.

>Iowa
>NV, the homo slaying state
>blue

Nate's model doesn't rate Trump as high because of his personal feelings but because state polls look much better for him than they did for Romney despite Romney polling ahead in national polling.

*NC darnit

Nate is so much more fair than other forecasters.

Yeah, he does have the "polls-plus" which is meant to counteract the volatility but it makes a lot more assumptions. Though it's within 1% of the polls-only prediction right now.

He's said it partly due to high divergence between polls, which indicates uncertainty. But you're right, Trump is doing better overall.

He's not fair or biased, he just autistically cares about his numbers and his model.
>He's said it partly due to high divergence between polls, which indicates uncertainty. But you're right, Trump is doing better overall.
My guess is that Clinton might actually win the popular vote thanks to California and other deep blue shitholes massively outvoting Republicans but the Democratic voters in swing states underperforming 2012 levels, thus giving Trump the EC victory.

whoa wait just a minute. I thought nate peepstone had trump at 27% two days ago. looks like he's trying not to embarrass himself

Can someone post the plummet Hillary had with hispanic voters?

>(((nate carboard)))

fixed

>Johnson
>8%

now we know it's just made up

>not realizing that hidden trump supporters are registered as independent
Baka

Drumpf has NO CHANCE to win PA

Drumpf has NO CHANCE to win NH

Drumpf has NO CHANCE to win NV

Drumpf has NO CHANCE to win MI

Drumpf is BARELY winning OH and FL

Drumpf HAS A CHANCE to lose TX, GA and SC

Face it Drumpftards, you've backed the wrong horse.

Nate Wood is the last person id be listening to.

HA

Delusional DRUMPFAGS BTFO

It's time to accept DEFEAT drumpfags. Welcome Madame President to the White House!

you have no fucking idea how statistics work

...

INCREASINGLY

>Drumpf HAS A CHANCE to lose TX, GA and SC

kek

explain then mr. (((silver)))

>RCP shows trump is leading in NH
>nate tin has NH solidly blue

kek RCP also has Michigan in play now. Hillary only leading by a few points, in a state that is usually very solidly democrat. Hillary is fucked

Slow and steady

I registered just to vote trump and i registered as no party affiliation. BTFO

>What is cheese pizza

NEWFAG GTFOH

Never thought I'd see this.

>johnson getting 8%

lel

I like how he makes a big speech about how trump inspires people and will win, is a staunch bernie faggot and then votes for the anti bernie bitch too.

Cuckness is in maximum overdrive

He is though