It essentially comes down to this:

It essentially comes down to this:

Florida and North Carolina are both in dead heat according to the polls. They can go either way, but some of you who are delusional assume that these are in Trump's safe column -- they are not. I do think they slightly lean towards Trump, as he's doing better among early voters in these states than Romney, probably due to the drop in African Americans who are expected to vote.

Nevada is polling nearly even as well, but Democrats have an early vote advantage in this state. That doesn't indicate that it will definitely vote for Clinton, although it's a good sign that Clinton will win it. The Hispanic vote in this state is also surging which is good for her.

The polls in New Hampshire are fairly close as well. It's a very white state, but many of these are college educated whites which aren't too fond of Trump. It can go either way, but I think it leans remotely towards Clinton because women are voting at higher rates than in 2012 according to early voting results across the US. In a state that's predominantly white and split politically, this benefits Clinton.

I believe Iowa, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Colorado are out of reach for the opposing party. Sure, Trump could win Pennsylvania, but that's as likely to happen as Clinton winning Ohio.

Trump needs to win all four of the gray states to win, while Clinton needs just one.

Other urls found in this thread:

slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/11/05/trump_has_almost_certainly_lost_nevada_amid_surge_of_latino_votes.html
realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/11/02/early_voting_a_poor_predictor_of_final_results.html
cnn.com/2016/11/05/politics/nevada-early-vote-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/index.html
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6008.html
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html
twitter.com/NSFWRedditImage

Hillary has already pulled out of FL, NV, and OH.

The assassination attempt last night, whether or not people know it was a birddog, will only help Trump in NV as well.

Trump has a slight advantage in PA considering the SEPTA strike.

We still have reason to believe there's a huge finale bombshell on Clinton.

Election is rigged so don't vote for Trump.

>The assassination attempt last night, whether or not people know it was a birddog, will only help Trump in NV as well.

Holy shit I knew this board was fucking crazy but this is Alex Jones level insanity. It was not an assassination attempt retard.

Seems like you're just bargaining. All the data says Trump is going to get crushed.

lol Hillary has not pulled out of FL, NV, or OH.

As I said, many of you are delusional and deny the polls and the facts.

PA is likely to vote for Clinton. That's not only what the polls indicate, but also countless pundits, including Nate Silver, who have an excellent track record of predicting elections.

And with regards to the NV Trump attack, no one is talking about that. It was just a last night thing. The media is barely reporting about it now. And the so called attacker did not even have a gun.

I am so happy our God King Trump was not assassinated last night. Evil will stop at nothing to rule this planet and it's good people.

It was a birddog. If that story gets out than it'll be huge, but either way people will just see it as proof that Trump needs help.

>All the data says Trump is going to get crushed.

That's an exaggeration. Although, a Clinton landslide is more likely than a Trump landslide.

Put all the gray states in Clinton's column and you have a landslide. Give Trump all the gray states and you have a narrow win.

Trump probably has a 25% chance of winning at this point.

Why does California have so many electoral votes?

ctr niggers

It's the highest populated state

>ate Silver, who have an excellent track record of predicting elections.
no he doesn't

Because it has the highest number of representatives in the house because it is the highest population state by far.

>state
>colour

Again, you are just a delusional person who is probably believing everything Alex Jones says.

He correctly predicted the outcome of the 2012 election for each state, and he was only one state off in 2008.

nevada is almost certainly going blue. slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/11/05/trump_has_almost_certainly_lost_nevada_amid_surge_of_latino_votes.html

he will need colorado to flip to make up for it

>slate

lmao

>evada is polling nearly even as well, but Democrats have an early vote advantage in this state.

Stop.

realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/11/02/early_voting_a_poor_predictor_of_final_results.html

Nope, I said that it's a good sign for her, which is true. I specifically said it doesn't indicate that it will certainly be in her column. That's why I made it gray.

cnn.com/2016/11/05/politics/nevada-early-vote-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/index.html

better?

Slate is owned by Rolling Stone, who is in deep shit for just lying for the sake of a narrative. I'm not worried about NV, FL or NC. I live in Florida, it's not happening, NH and CO are what I got my eyes on, Those states hold the balance

You just confirmed that you didn't even read the article.

If you are relying on early votes to forecast what was going to happen on Election Day you're going to get wildly misleading results.

Democrats maintained substantial leads among early voters in North Carolina, Louisiana and West Virginia in 2012, and were trailing by a relatively narrow margin in Oklahoma, but still lost those states when all the votes were counted. Republicans won early voters in Pennsylvania and Colorado but lost the final tallies there.

Early voting vs. final results only have a very weak positive relationship. Early votes constitute only about a quarter to a third of the total electorate and are a very unrepresentative sample of it.

No! Why would CNN be better?

Main concern for GOPers is turnout on election day. Trump has little-to-no turnout machine. That could pull Ohio back into play. Also look out for Hispanic support in border states and NV being understated by polls.

Also kudos to OP for knowing PA is fools gold for republicans. I want Trump to win, but being a desperate Sanders-esque circle jerk won't help us. I think polls are off this year big time, but I'm not hedging my bets on that. I'm Hedging them on Trump will have a larger day of turn out period, better then mittens and better then Bush. Early voting is down off Obama's 2012 scrape by.(early voting was strong for them too, but their margins are much more narrow then last year)

I am in NC. There's no way HRC can win here without cheating. There are no signs for her anywhere. (Except signs that say "Remember Benghazi")

I've been to a rally for Trump, couldn't get in. Wasn't upset at all though...it was amazing. So many thousands of people standing outside, talking about real shit. I even overheard a group of teenagers discussing the Clinton's involvement in Ruby Ridge.

I also overheard a group of black people talking in the grocery checkout the other day that gave me some insight I wouldn't have otherwise. They were talking about how stupid Hillary is to think they'd vote for her just because they show up to her rallies with Jay Z and other rappers. Said people only go for the free concert and that "ain't no nigga in they right mind voting for that crooked bitch"

huh? everyones going to turn out for trump. have you even been awake for the past year?

Daily reminder that votes are based on electoral college representation rather than popular vote.

He's been telling people not to vote by mail on top of that. He's setting up for as much as possible on the 8th, He's out pace Romney easy.

>turnout machine
You mean busses.

...

Everyone knows that you retard. Popular vote in that state decides the electoral votes for that state though

This is a grrat strat actually. Crowd out the dems at the booth lines on the 8th. Greater energy means greater proportion of people willing to wait in those long lines.

Tell that to the dumbass who posted on the post I responded to.

>Nate Silver
He couldn't even predict that you post was b8. (you), enjoy

I only deny polls that aren't polled fairly, in which nearly all are over counting dems. It's not hard to find how they took the polls when they literally give you the information

that's only made a difference in 1 election in the last 116 years.

I've been pouring over data from Wisconsin and I think Trump stands a reasonable chance.

>One of the whitest states
>Highest percentage of non-college educated whites in the rust belt
>Got fucked hard by NAFTA
>Voted for Bernie Sanders in the primary
>In 2012 Obama's 200,000 vote victory margin was almost entirely made by Waukesha, Madison, and Milwaukee.
>Waukesha and Milwaukee are both projected to rain on Tuesday which is going to fuck their voter turnout
>Trump is doing dramatically better in all of the rural areas in the state compared to Romney
>Cruz has started campaigning for Trump, and as he won Wisconsin this is good for his numbers
>Wisconsin has one of the strongest, most well funded, and most well organized GOP political apparatuses in the country thanks to Paul Ryan, Gov. Walker, and the various state level officials who seem to know what the fuck they are doing.
>Ironically the polling which oversamples Dems and makes it seem like a clear-cut Hillary victory is just going to suppress the millenial vote even more severely than the rain will, fucking up her odds in must-win-by-large-margins Dane, Milwaukee and Waukesha counties
>Green Bay county went to Romney in 2012, and he could probably turn the already Republican leaning county into a strong GOP voting block that could compensate for the Dem cities

Trump has a legit shot at winning WI. Any thoughts?

Michigan is not safe for Clinton even though it has voted for Dem presidential candidates for several elections.

NAFTA and the loss of manufacturing jobs is huge in Michigan and some other rust belt states. Everyone knows that Bill Clinton did Nafta. Hillary hasn't come out and said that at the time she thought NAFTA would not work out well for ordinary people and tried to get Bill to not sign the bill. Absent such a statement, it is difficult for her to get traction among many voters depsite previous election results.

Bernie Sanders won the Dem primary in a huge surprise. Donald Trump won the Republican primary despite pressure against him from Michigan Republican royalty.

Why is that? Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders wanted to bring manufacturing back to the US.

Which current presidential candidate wants to bring back manufacturing jobs and re-negotiate NAFTA and is more believable? Donald Trump

None of Romney (vulture capitalist), Dimson Bush (WAR!), Dole or Bush I cared about keeping manufacturing in the US let alone in the Upper Midwest.

The polls are showing Trump closing and there's little or no early voting in Michigan.

If I had to be, I'd say Michigan goes Trump.

PS Many blacks and women of all colors worked in those plants. It wasn't just white men, folks.

Dumbfuckistan over there on the west and east coast

>I also overheard a group of black people talking in the grocery checkout the other day that gave me some insight I wouldn't have otherwise. They were talking about how stupid Hillary is to think they'd vote for her just because they show up to her rallies with Jay Z and other rappers. Said people only go for the free concert and that "ain't no nigga in they right mind voting for that crooked bitch"

Yeah blacks are not going to be voting with any enthusiasm for some frail, corny white hag when you have a very blingy, loudmouth and obscenely wealthy playboy like Trump running.

>Why does California have so many electoral votes?

Mexicans.

>rain
>stopping Democrats from voting against "literally Hitler"

Fairly safe to say that Clinton will win it.

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6008.html

It's not gonna happen.

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html

HAHHHA WOW
this is delusion.

Because it has half the population of Mexico living in it.

funny how you don't mention early voting numbers in FL and NC which benefit trump heavily

I literally did. Read my first post regarding FL and NC.

good thing it's 2012 election in two days,
oh no wait it's 2016 and this year he had a horrible track record thus far

congratulations, OP. First election post on this board that isn't completely delusional.

Latino's are only like 7% of voters in NV i believe

Latino's don't vote much per capita, Blacks do though

not to mention the sooner you vote, the more time it gives dems to cheat

Thank you for correcting the record.

>The assassination attempt last night, whether or not people know it was a birddog, will only help Trump in NV as well.
It's been proven that the man didnt have any gun, he was a republican against Trump and all the turmp supporters tried to beat him.

...

Trump doesn't need Florida

With Florida

I'm South African and I know more about this election than you burgher.

No one knows who the early voters voted for. The only way they are giving these "won early voting results" is by looking at registration, so it doesn't factor in democrats voting for Trump and Vice-Versa.

End this meme, even states where Trump wins early voting tells us absolutely fucking nothing.

He's literally been wrong about everything this year
Trump won the nomination, Cubs got to AND won the world series, and Britain voted leave
He's a worthless jew hack that should have taken a position as a soulless talking head for CNN

It's only going to have like 20 after all the mexicans are sent back