How can anyone not see tomorrow being anything but a blowout for Trump?
>Polls have Clinton at best up by 1-2%
>Doesn't account for democrats being oversampled
>Doesn't account for independents (who favour Trump 2-1)
>Doesn't account for monster vote
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lancasteronline.com
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The fuck is a monster vote
>Monster vote
It's an imaginary voting block Sup Forums has made up to compensate for the fact Trump is losing in the polls, particularly FL.
Just one more day of this shit and reality sets in. Hopefully the "KEK" cultist fuck off with Trump.
I believe you guys can do this.
Don't let us down.
kek will kill you with repeating digits
Republicans tend to have a large turnout on Election Day. Democrats have a larger turnout during early voting. So far early voting has been relatively even between the two, leading many to beleave that the surge on Election Day will put trump ahead.
Really makes you think
Well I mean this is historically, factually true. However, we don't know exactly how the turnout will be yet this year.
Because I'm expecting absolutely massive voter fraud to prop up Hillary.
Donald Trump. President of the United States 2016. You heard it here first.
Thus guys gets it. The whole election is fake and even if Hillary got zero votes it'd still say she won. Nobody has any control over it and there's nothing anyone can do. She's going win.
The hidden people who don't show support because they are shy or afraid.
...
If this turns out to be true and nobody does nothing, it'll just be the definitive proof of how pathetic your country is
the single detail that makes me hope for a Trump presidency is the record number of people registered to vote, which i interpret as many rural, usually abstentionist whites feeling abandoned by the establishment but who are registering to vote for Trump because they see some hope
No. that's not what I said at all.
Trump is losing because his complete and total lack of an effective ground game where Clintons was massive. Also he barely ran any commercials and said a bunch of dumb shit.
The detail that gives me the most hope is CTR's massive shilling. They're afraid that their voter fraud plans aren't enough.
I think Hillary's absolute best case is a very close count and a win by a whisker. Perhaps even with Trump getting the popular vote.
The blacks are going to chimp the fuck out bigly, not to mention the beaners and the perverts (LGBTQ).
What a time to be alive!
I'm sure Remain thought the Leave monster vote was imaginary too.
Or the silent majority
en.wikipedia.org
Time for Trump
Because sometimes the world isn't a movie. Sometimes the boring polls are correct and things go as planned.
How would you be able to prove it?
Forgot to metion
>Doesn't account for the Bradley Effect.
Yeah but the UK is actually white. The majority of US people who have never voted are not Trump demographics.
Like Cruz' skelegates, only bigger and under Dahnald's command. Its gonna be like the war from Lord of the rings where that old dude cries n the hill. Long, intense and with elves, god I love Murica. Fuck on monster voters, fuck on...
Because the actual votes don't matter. How are you gonna proof that trump has more votes than hillary? You fucking can't, and the media has been shilling for hillary constantly which will make most people believe that she actually had more votes regardless of the real outcome.
3 of your points are the same.
But I do hope this happens mainly because I want to see the polling industry BTFO. I want to see how they are going to damage control their way out of that.
>10kb
>250x211
Broadband?
>oversampled
More Democrats vote than Republicans. More registered Democrats, more Democrats turnout. Many of them are Dixiecrats (who vote Repub) which is why a good pollster accounts for them.
>independents
Check out the early voter turnout. Independents aren't coming out in droves like either Dems or Repubs.
>monster vote
Stupid meme. Look at registration numbers. You can't have a >MUH MONSTER VOTE if this "silent majority" isn't even registered. This is why Trump should've focused on his ground game to get turnout up instead of just holding rally, after rally.
When will this meme end? Oddsmakers and polls a couple days before the election had the result within the margin of error.
true that. We even have a precedent with the Bush-Gore presidential race
I think it's going to be a fuck of a lot closer than people think. Trump's outrageous statements and persona, and Clinton's emails are just window dressing, they don't really effect how most people will vote.
This is nativism vs pro-immigrant pro-minority globalism.
>>Doesn't account for democrats being oversampled
That's partially because Dems have vote more than Reps in last elections: thus the oversampling is accurate sampling to some extent
Of course, if independents lean towards Trump (as they are doing) then the Dems are fucked, but that depends partially upon you:
What are YOU doing to help the cause, motherfucker?
LETS FUCKING DO THIS SHIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
MAAAAAAAAGAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
SMAAAAAAAAAAAAAAASHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!
they're going to rig the elections user
I'm sure if America had an actually democratic election, Trump would win.
but I have no doubt Clinton will conveniently win states that have Soros' machines with 51%
I mean Jesus Christ, even the FBI are already licking her ass. You really think Comey would risk his career if he knew Trump had any chance of winning?
...
assuming a low millenial voter turnout, polls say Trump wins
>THE ENTIRE media has been shilling for Hillary for a year straight
>the political establishment is completely against him, on both sides
>the average American is stupid as fuck
>almost every single poll has Clinton ahead
>Clinton has a MUCH easier path to victory than Trump
>absurdly wealthy political donors have thrown all their money behind Clinton
>voting machines everywhere
>minorities get to vote and are stupid enough to think Trump is a racist
>women get to vote and are stupid enough to think Trump is a misogynist
Yeah HMMMMMMMMMMMMM no idea why people are being realistic about how absurdly remote Trump's chances at victory are
>UK
>White
Polls have Trump 2% behind - that's within the margin of error. Odssmakers don't.
For Brexit, the polls were tight, but towards the end fairly consistently remain; the betting odds weren't, they were overwhelming for remain.
betting.betfair.com
>more Democrats turnout
You're out of your mind if you think Democrats will get a higher turnout than GOP this year, let alone Obama turnout numbers which is what the poll sampling is based on, hence why it's OVERSAMPLED.
>Check out the early voter turnout. Independents aren't coming out in droves like either Dems or Repubs.
40% higher IND turnout in NC compared to 2012
>Stupid meme
Keep dismissing the monster vote, it's what will win Trump Michigan and other states, and make his victory all the more sweeter.
>implying it's not rigged in Clinton's favor
It's based on likely voters. Could the sample size be giving false information about their likelihood of showing up to the polls? Sure. But when you put in the historical context of every other poll it's not likely. Calculating likely voters is part of the process and the reason sample questions are worded how they are. This is basic statistics. Weeding out false positives and negative responses isn't just throwing darts on a demographic map.
>40% higher
Source?
Everything I've read, heard or watched has shown Republican and Democratic turnout is up. Indie, not so much.
First hit off of Google is this link, for example:
sandiegouniontribune.com
>monster
All indications of a monster vote existing simply haven't materialized. We can argue speculation or, maybe even count yard signs, but at that point where do you draw the line between fact and fiction?
and as with Brexit, old people will decide the election
Barring fraud - which there has already been a shiton of caught.... 330+ Trumpslide.
This is VERY true. Even the Amish are out in force voting.
you awoken the sleeping smelly chicano giant
im sorry trumpeteers, its over
Accurate, but millenials have surpassed boomers this year in registrations. It'll be interesting to see if they turnout.
>Commercials
>Effective
>2016
>By contrast, only about half of adults are registered in rural Bart and Leacock townships, in the heart of the county’s Amish community, where many Plain Sect residents are reluctant to take part in the political process.
>In between the extremes are more typical rates in 43 communities where 75 percent to 95 percent of adults are registered.
Stop believing in fake articles.
The amish aren't the monster vote. Unlike Mormons, the Amish tend to stay out of politics. Which is GOOD for Trump because pic related.
it'll be too low to compete. hillary is shit with young voters, many will probably go third party
>shit with young voters
She's got a 24-35 point advantage with those 18-34. With that said, they probably won't turnout in droves.
I get it. I can understand why the polls might be fucked and the ridiculous pro-propaganda.
What I don't get though is the bookies odds. Trump is still hovering around 3/1. I mean I have £100 bet on him to win anyway, but can someone explain the reason his odds would be so low if you/we all believe he's going to win? I mean bookies have money to lose.
Also, I realise the bookies odds were in favour of remain during the EU Referendum throughout. I don't think the odds were quite as low as with Trump now though.
>amish are with her
o fug lads, trumps done
fucking amish. the purest of all german americans, and so degenerate that they live like anarcho primitivists cause thats what god wants.
Monster vote? The monsters are voting for Hillary senpai. Replace "Cookies" with "Gibs"
The people who never voted before and are thus not taken into account in any of the polls. Trump has been very popular among these people.
If they are indeed going to vote it's going to be a land slide...but they probably stay home as usual.
>imaginary voting block Sup Forums
Are you retarded?
Just look up "Monster Vote" on Google, it's a real thing and one that has been constantly mentioned all over the media, and in previous elections. And it was reflected to a smaller extent in the primaries, that's why everyone thought he would lose but he didn't.
They're probably going off the polls, which have been saying Clinton forever. So naturally they'll use stuff like that.
I think the polls are misleading because many people who actually vote for trump don't want to admit it openly because of the public shaming factor. It's the same thing with the nationalist parties in Europe, they always get much lower percentage in the polls because people don't want to admit they voted for them out of fear of being shamed. I know a few people who said they voted Trump but don't want me to tell anyone about it.
So hopefully this means that Trump has more support than the polls would lead us to believe.
Because you're not accounting for the rigged elections, user. I am.
> I don't think the odds were quite as low as with Trump now though.
They were lower. And it was the same thing, they all underestimated turnout.
No, it's not set yet. Everyone needs to keep pushing Trump support. Come on! Don't stop!!!
They registered to vote for bernie in the primaries and are gonna stay home lel
because they are going to cheat
But Clinton might rig things, so we don't know for sure.
And then there is this model that includes all of the factors. richardcharnin.wordpress.com
higher turnout = more white people voting = more Trump voters
Odds were lower with the referendum, everything was against it. 10 point lead for remain on the day of the vote. Even the Leave campaign thought they were going to lose
It would be shortsighted to assume primary turnout is associated with general election turnout.
It's almost two entirely different "elections".
Liberals are the best at denialism and feigned ignorance.
You know this, stralia.
with as high energy as this campaign has been? It's going to be a fucking slaughter
The GOP had a hotly contested primary with high turnout because people knew Trump would likely lose if nominated
New voters who don't show up in the polls. People who have never voted before, young voters.
Obama had a monster vote win him the election. His monster vote was the black vote.
When is Australia going to have a life changing election?
We had Brexit memeys, we had Trump. When are we going to meme some emu into office?
They should make an Abo president just to see what happens.
Probably not any time soon. Australia's in a very comfortable place right now. It's great living here.
didn't realize this was YLYL
It is correlated though, like it was in 2008, it's even reflected with the level of enthusiasm and questions about who plans to vote on election day in the polls. When it's not correlated, it's usually because there's less competition on one side in the primaries.
And the entire point I was making was that the "monster vote", the large amount of people who aren't accounted for in the polls, does exist, and it's why no one thought Trump had a chance.
Keep telling yourself that.
How are you on SJW shit and all that feminist crap? Surely things must not be that great in that area since it's an English speaking nation.
Aussies on Sup Forums are massive cunts, so I always imagine Australia as something like a warm climate Canada.
...
Free petrol for all.
I fair elections he would win in a landslide. We will have a close race due to all the fraud. I still think he can pull it off, though.
Well the most densely populated cities are Sydney and Melbourne and as far as I can tell, they are quite SJW-heavy. But as far as Brisbane/queensland goes we're a little more conservative/right wing here. It's not too bad. Among millennials there are obviously a lot of SJWs as in any western place right now, but it's not THAT bad.
>he doesn't know about the monster vote
Oh boy
Odds are skewed by FX markets: just like Brexit.
"Professional" punters are long Hillary, short Mexican Peso. Just like they were long Remain, short Pound.
They actually make most money if Trump/Leave win.
The Hillary/Remain votes are just to hedge their (leveraged) FX shorts.
tl;dr Trump implied probability can't increase til Peso falls. The betting market is pocket money compared to the FX market.
Doesn't account for millennials and those living in the inner city being lazy
Sad!
I want to see a big Australian election being talked about on Sup Forums.
>democrats being oversampled
They do this to correct for the bias inherent in the polls. Prove me wrong.
I would love to make it happen.
I've considered going into politics a few times but I feel like it would take a very long time before I had any real influence.
>correlated
In so much as more people vote every four-year cycle as the population increases?
>nate gallium
Nate went against his own predictive model if I recall during the Republican primaries.
Shills and trolls, I mean a good chunk are just annoying Canadians, who knows what their deal is. And of course 4chans natural contrarian culture brings a lot of people just trying to stir the pot for (yous)
>trump wins
It's good
>hillary wins
She collapses under legal scandal and just like Nixon kills the democrats formlike 20 years
Also the potential for open civil war
Trump started the fire, winning now would be nice but this whole rotten beast is up in flames and it's too late to try to put it out
Don't bother dude, this people are so goddamn brainwashed it is pathetic
That's not a low millennial turnout, that's a 0 millennial turnout in which the Don wins by 1%. Even a very, very tiny millennial turnout would give this to Clinton
>I realise the bookies odds were in favour of remain during the EU Referendum throughout
There's your explanation.
That's it. There is no other reason.
You have to take into consideration that polls showed a Trump victory to be far less likely than Brexit winning.
The polls that showed Brexit losing were like 48 to 52. The polls weren't nearly as ridiculous and the propaganda wasn't as bad.
Brexit supporters were called racist and dumb, but just look at the slander Trump gets. He is called a nazi, literally Hitler, racist, sexist, homophobe, dumb, retarded, Russian plan, warhawk, con artist, rapist etc.
Trump is going to win.
If you can add its really not hard. Math is way beyond the Alt Right is the man problem.
That's also close enough for Donald to lose. I'I pretty sure Al Gore had 1-2% more of the popular vote.
Do it, cunt.
I am considering doing the same, but I first need some credentials.
"Ground game" is exactly the excuse they used for why Trump would lose in the primaries. It's definitely improved in the general, and it's less relevant than ever with the internet era.