Nate Silver: Clinton is ONE State Away from Losing to Trump!

IN OITHER WORDS: TRUMP ONE STATE AWAY FROM WINNING
youtube.com/watch?v=1TPfuXPpp68

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periscope.tv/w/au5WXjEwOTc5OTIyfDFkUkpaUkFwbUJiSkKcAoyDIR0OFbAYksPbpyAsVN96JYFsVAn6SbV-QL-t6A==
youtu.be/m9kmAAp4yd4
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html
i.4cdn.org/wsg/1476858738321.webm
youtube.com/watch?v=AcRCwehB4OQ
twitter.com/AnonBabble

wtf I love Nate now!

who the fuck is that guy

also watch this, he think trump loses but explains a lot about the states and how trump CAN win even blue states periscope.tv/w/au5WXjEwOTc5OTIyfDFkUkpaUkFwbUJiSkKcAoyDIR0OFbAYksPbpyAsVN96JYFsVAn6SbV-QL-t6A==

Trump will win.

You can tell Nate is trying to hedge really hard because his reputation is on the line. He was so wrong about Trump during the Primary campaigns that he knows if he is wrong here he's basically done, especially after his 2014 performance which was subpar I think?

538's foray into sports has been less than spectacular as well.

Fuck, Nate is changing his strategy.
He realized whatever he says, the opposite will come true, so now he's trying to shill for Trump.

>N OITHER WORDS: TRUMP ONE STATE AWAY FROM WINNING
nope

...

>Nate Diamond

I said this shit a month ago. Nate would suddenly go "Oh it's now a 50/50 shot" on election day to try to salvage his career after being wrong all year about Trump.

Nate is a hypocrite that's why we love to mock him. In other words I'm excited for a trump win if this is true.

He's become as useless as a three handed economist.

kek

Holy shit nigger, why doesn't he shave that pathetic hair off?

>Says Trump is one state away from winning
>Trump wins in a landslide instead
always wrong

Is this really all there is to political analysis? Looking at all the polls from various polling sources, averaging them, and then sticking them on a map?

Why is this "model" supposed to be so good and why can't anyone do what Nate Rust is doing?

Which state

He looks sexy af. No homo.

Either New Hampshire, Michigan, Colorado or Pennsylvania probably.

jesus this is what nate silver looks like

wtf is wrong with his hairline

anyone, more likely NH or CO, and there are good analysis (see my second link, etc) that he might get Virginia or Colorado

SPREAD IT
>SPREAD IT
SPREAD IT
>SPREAD IT
SPREAD IT

youtu.be/m9kmAAp4yd4
youtu.be/m9kmAAp4yd4
youtu.be/m9kmAAp4yd4

GET THE WORD OUT AND THE MOVEMENT GOING! #WikileaksSummary
WAKE UP THE LAST REMAINING NORMIES!

ALSO GUESS WHO'S BACK TO THE TOP IN FLORIDA?
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html

He got good chances with these? I've been a little doubtful lately but honestly it could happen

he's not just averaging the polls (that's what rpc is doing), hes also accounting for many other factors: i know he accounts for at least historical data, the current state of the economy, correlations between neighboring states that vote similarly, ...
he also weights the pollsters and accounts for their bias based on their track record

SHAVE YOUR HEAD YOU FUCKING JEW

WHAT IS THAT FUCKING HAIRCUT HOLY SHIT

lol fag

Too late Nate. Your credibility is shot.

That Cubs v. Indians predictions he kept changing basically sealed his fate as a hack

according to the polling nate gives NH the best odds of turning red, and i think polling there is well within margin of error
not sure about other states

NC, AZ, and GA just flipped blue today. What now, drompf lovers?

keked

he is within the margin of error in NH, some polls show him ahead

>TRUMP ONE STATE AWAY FROM WINNING
in other words he's still losing lmao
stupid goyim always lose

thats what i said?

People don't like math. Do some fucking percentages, set up a decent looking website, and wait for the most obvious of obvious elections to show up and tadaa; you're a savant who gets to be on the news until you fuck up a less obvious election cycle.

actually i see what you mean i worded it like a fucking retard
you are right, we agree with each other

RCP
Trump +4 in arizona, +4 in Georgia, +1 in NC, -0.2 in FL but trending up while clinton goes down, etc

Trump is not losing within the margin of error anywhere where it matters

>battleground states flipping blue on the day before the election

wow, its fucking nothing

Reminder that Silver catches heat for being the only one who think Trump has a chance.

We've been shitting on him but he's the least worst one right now.

Epic combover.

>Trump +4 in arizona, +4 in Georgia, +1 in NC, -0.2 in FL but trending up while clinton goes down, etc
>Trump is not losing within the margin of error anywhere where it matters

Don't believe it. They're rigged. Showing the race being very very close makes people seem like their vote has a better chance of deciding the election. Combine that with showing the candidate you don't want to win as winning, in this case Trump, will encourage Clinton voters to show up.

what the fuck is going on with that hairline

Come on Americans make this happen, it must happen, make brexit worth it, I'm pretty sure the UK government is waiting until after the US election before deciding what to do.

If Trump wins they will do his bidding or be crushed.

That was yesterday. She's winning by a bunch of states now.

It's the fucking day before the election. A predictor should not be switching his points this close in. If a weatherman did this shit, he'd be fired. This is a sign that something is very fucked with the polls.

Except for several things:
1) Early voting already indicates heavy Trump majorities in both NC and FL.
2) Polling also indicates that Trump will likely take NV
3) He was polling VERY far ahead in NH until the University of New Hampshire suddenly released a Clinton +11 poll that seems to have no basis in reality whatsoever.

These three things combine to push him over.

He's just trying to increase dem turnout by lighting a fire you numb nuts

you can only report the data as it comes in
he's not puporting to read the future

Why do Trumpfags always get so angry and ignorant when anybody talks about statistics?

this, ourotherboy bill explained this very well

MAGA U MAD BURGERS, MAKE THIS FUCKING HAPPEN AHHHHHHHHHH I CANT CONTAIN MYSELF

4 years ago he could pass as human. Now he's almost completely turned into a typical Jew

Ugh more like Nate Sliver, the snake

its already over. Michigan is going Red, Co and NM aren't too far behind

wtf i love nate silver's predictions now

EVERY DAY

i.4cdn.org/wsg/1476858738321.webm

You know this douchebag was using D+12 polls, yes? Hillary Men +4?

As long as everyone gets out and votes its going to be a blowout. Hes going to win by millions of votes

>Up by 3 in Michigan
>This means she'll lose Michigan

So Nate Borax starts saying that Drump is gonna win, and you start believing him again? It's been like two years you guys have been calling him a lying kike every minute of every day. Why would you start believing him, or any pollster, now? Unless you just want confirmation bias, in which case, enjoy your hugbox.

She WAS one state away. And just like I said, Nate's model would begin to converge with other popular predictions in the final days. 538 is up to 70 and climbing until polls open tomorrow morning.

here our boy explains why trump already won youtube.com/watch?v=AcRCwehB4OQ

This is hilarious.

...

THANKS FOR CORRECTING THE RECORD

Nate Silver says Hillary is going to lose?
Great she is going to win now, hope you fuckers are happy.

>pol is just one person

kys faggot

nigga should predict himself some better hair
I mean jesus

No, you also need to have some complex formula for weighting and averaging them to come to basically the same conclusion as you did before but to make it look like more work.

Welcome to Sup Forums.

KEK

BTFO

In the video he says clinton is winning
?

nates model wont converge with other popular predictions what are you talking about
they will run their final predictions at midnight tonight

It's already converging.

Don't @ me about math, okay? I have a masters in this shit and most of you don't understand the difference between 51% and 100%.

you wouldnt be saying dumb shit like that if you had a masters from math
or do they give them out at ctr now?

is that receding hairline because of trump?

Only thing more divided than the country is this Jew's hairline

Trump won't have enough time to win that state tho

C'mon, Nate

For every state you give Trump, Kek will restore a square inch of hair to the top of your head

No, our message was consistent:

Trump has a good chance to win.

Nate's message was:

LOL DRUMPF HAS 1% CHANCE OF WINNING THE GOP

LOL HES AT 9%

LOL ITS OVER

Well guys what I actually meant was it's close and Trump could win

This is a thread mocking him more than it is "Wtf I love Nate Silver now"

Nate is now my waifu

This.

That guy from Secular Talk has had more accurate predictions about this whole election than anybody else and all he did was look at the fucking polls plus judge how well they are campaigning.

The reason Nate Silver embarrassed himself so hard this year was because he literally fucking IGNORED the polls in favor of ebin memes such as "gut instinct". But since Trump was nominated he seems to have had a wake-up call and stopped being retarded.

She is but it's close. Nate is just trying to salvage his career by veering towards Trump since he's done absolutely shit this year

KEK WILL BLESS

BTW, how come Sup Forums doesn't talk about Sam Wang anymore? Everybody loved him when he was bullish for Trump but now he has Clinton at >99% and now it's like he doesn't exist.

My masters is in information and data science but I know the math well enough.

Forgot the pic.

his predictions have been so wrong that Im not sure if this is good or bad

i am honestly sad that we are anonymous and i cannot call you out in a few hours when nate updates his model for the last time
you are fucking retarded if you actually think it will change by more than a percentage point by then

>Don't @ me about math, okay? I have a masters in this shit
>My masters is in information and data science
no, you don't have a master's in math, just meme math

>check out 538
>all three projections have her winning 323 electoral votes

really makes you think

lol quoting OP and replying to him directly is the same as saying everyone here is the same? Good work portunigger, back to the favela for you

It's already jumped almost 5+% for Clinton this morning and the stock market hasn't even opened yet. There will be early voting exit polls all day long.

Until "real math" commands $150/hr. consulting fees, I'll take the meme. Thanks.

If you know maths so well, how come you can't get repeating digits?

Silver is scrambling for a fire escape.

Trump will win

he wont be adding new data to his model after midnight tonight
is 150/hr what ctr pays now?

96730608 is 101110000111111110111110000 in binary. Check em.

> he wont be adding new data to his model after midnight tonight
I never said he would.

>There will be early voting exit polls all day long