How will Trump bring back jobs in the face of mass automation

Apparently Trump promised millions of blue collar workers good jobs. If these worked primarily in manufacturing, where will the jobs come from?

Other urls found in this thread:

robotswillstealyourjob.com/read
bbc.com/news/technology-36376966
digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/robots-replace-5-million-jobs-2020/
forbes.com/sites/julianmitchell/2016/07/11/robots-replacing-developers-this-startup-uses-artificial-intelligence-to-build-smart-software/#142682bc5bf1
youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU
nydailynews.com/news/world/ibm-watson-proper-diagnosis-doctors-stumped-article-1.2741857
motherboard.vice.com/read/robots-will-take-two-thirds-of-all-jobs-in-the-developing-world-un-says
youtube.com/watch?v=2Ce6z-u_Wk0
twitter.com/NSFWRedditGif

I told you to stay off my computer, cotton picker joe.

bump

oh look at post that was upvoted to hell on reddit shows up on Sup Forums

Right you are. I'm curious. I want a different opinion.

He won't. The Trump-run US government will continue outsourcing manufacturing to cheaper countries that utilize slave labor in all but name. Eventually, once automation becomes cheaper than even outsourcing to the lowest-paid workers in Buttfuckistan, nobody's getting those jobs ever again.

The coal mines are dead due to coal running out, and even if we found a whole bunch of new ones, automation would still fuck the miners over.

What the miners and factory workers needed was job retraining and a guaranteed basic income, but they're not going to get that now.

It wasn't about what he said. It was about what he stands for. Liberal tears.

>guaranteed basic income
They weren't going to get that anyway, they're white

by repealing the nafta or completely banishing it?
boogie told me nafta is the reason why many jobs are outsourced outside of the us and the reason why the min wage is so low.

i dunno though, nafta made the US billions and make products cheaper than dirt.

So are you saying just because some robots took over manufacturing because they are cheaper the workers should just cop it?

and not signing the tpp
so more jobs will be contained in the us
hopefully theres enough americans willing to work 12 hour shifts

By ending NAFTA and instituting fair trade while also cutting corporate taxes for companies that produce in the US and instituting heavy tariffs for those that go to china or mexico. If companies have incentive to come back they will. Carrot and stick. The US has the most money to buy shit, they can't not sell products to us.

If leddit faggots had actually paid attention to his policy speeches they'd know this already

But who builds the robots that build things?

Robotics. Conversation closed.

>guaranteed basic income

When? After they're fucking dead? People need money now you smug faggot.

military

Trump was elected not Hillary you retard.

Most of your life youve had politicians who don't actually do anything, because they're puppets.

Yall don't understand what it's like to do something.

We have the first unified republican government since the 1920s and will control the USSC. It's looking great for getting what we want done

Nafta only made the elites billions. If you have no job it's irrelevant to you how much a corporation makes

hillary doesnt know either how to deal with it.

But at the very least trump knows how to maximize the cash and the industry that still exists, he will set right the bad tradedeals that crippled the money flow. So in the short term there should be a huge boost. But then after a while, it will continue the WORLDWIDE downward trend of "governments are too dumb to understand what automation is doing"

>Basic income

Found the commie

It made non-essential things cheap. Especially poor-quality electronics.

8hr shifts dumbass. That was negotiated almost 100 years ago.

Americans are willing to work. We want to work

Well someone needs to manufacture the robots.

A few machines need thousands of workers?

Yeah if there are machines taking up jobs then there are jobs at the machine making places. But then you can just create machines to make other machines and so on until you reach machines collecting resources to build themselves, even machines that control other machines.

Won't that need highly educated/skilled labour

well someone has to build the wall, even if mexico pays for it

you know robots require operators, mechanics, engineers, etc, right?

people act like factories with robots are entirely automated and require no human interaction

He won't bring back a lot of manufacturing. It's cheaper elsewhere and would be done with robots here. His best bet to chase a blue collar work force would be subsidizing worker retraining programs, and large public works/infrastructure projects. Which is exactly what he mentioned in his acceptance speech. He's gonna turn the United States into another U.A.E.

semi-skilled labor in the form of machine operators
why do you retards keep acting like this is some world breaking issue that no one has addressed
fucking. Norway. You absolute retarded mongrels.

Do you really think the kikes that he so much loves will let him make them lose money?

Also, if the dems failed appeasing to the unemployed you can bet your sorry ass Trump will fail as well lol. He will be like Bush Jr without a war to distract the populace.

>appeasing the unemployed

Its not economically feasible to put simple shit like solar panels on businesses

how the fuck are they going to pay the cost to buy a robot that builds your hamburger at the fast food place?

what jobs are these robots going to take that haven't already been taken?


most jobs that came back in the US are service jobs

you think its economically feasible to buy a complex robot+the specialists that need to program and run and maintain it to build a hamburger or pump your gas?

You really think we are going to have a robot invasion doing complex tasks like logging trees or diagnosing illness in 4 years?

So what are these jobs that will go away to the robots?

>expecting inbred trump voters to repair and construct automated robots
>blue collar

lel

For there to be no jobs in manufacturing would require that literally every single object being produced in manufacturing was produced in such abundance that it would be free.

So, until every american has a free car, there won't be unemployment.

Automation is going to create a pretty damn marginal amount of new jobs and they're all going to be skilled jobs.
Some guy assembling a fridge who just got kicked out, won't even be qualified to touch those jobs.

It's not going to 100% automate the factories, but it will kick out a large majority of the workforce and those people won't be finding new employment because of the few jobs that bots created.

What jobs will automation replace in the next 10 years that have not already been replaced by automation?

If every low skilled job was automated then charity would go completely insane, the cost of everything would be so cheap that you could basically feed all the low skilled workers or give them the basket of goods that they would have worked for one dollar a day.

And even if they didn't want to donate that one dollar they still have to or else they'll have a revolution.

You need someone to gather the raw resources to build the robots
You need someone to manufacture the robots.
You need someone to make the tools needed to manufacture the robots
You need someone to repair the robots when they fail
You need someone to supervise and maintain the robots

I could go on. This is complete nonsense. It's like saying that jobs will all be over because the horse got replaced by the car. New jobs open up as a result.

i thought in deer hunter factory workers do 12 hour shifts

> So what are these jobs that will go away to the robots?

The argument on the OP (from reddit) assumed manufacturing jobs, which I learn, are what those people were doing before American manufacturing was shipped overseas.

I noticed that was a weakness in the argument, because there WILL be other jobs they can do since the "manufacturing is never coming back".

This. Norway

>you think its economically feasible to buy a complex robot+the specialists that need to program and run and maintain it to build a hamburger or pump your gas?

Yes.

Or to more specific, it will be.

Do you think it's economically feasible to build a supercomputer 1,000,000 times more powerful than the one than landed spaceships on the fucking moon, make it small enough to fit in your pocket, and ship it to every corner of the globe, yet still sell it for so cheap that trailer trash and people on welfare the world over can still have one?

Because that's what a cell phone is.

the problem is not with robots completely replacing jobs
the problem is with robots/automatons reducing the number of jobs available
a single combine harvester can replace the job of 100 farm workers
horses and everyone that goes into maintaining them are completely obsolete after automotives boomed
sure, these new inventions create new jobs but they're extremely reduced in number.and require lots and lots of skill.

The thing is once automation is fully here, there will be far less need for that.

For instance, you will need coders to code the robots. But if the coders code it once, they've coded them all and you only need to copy the code on every single robot that gets made.

You'll need someone to plan how the robot will get made, but then the robots can take over and just make the robots themselves, following the blueprints.

The amount of humans we'll need will be vastly inferior to the amount of humans we'll have.


Once automation gets here, there'll be no reason for us to not reduce world population to a 1/100th of what it currently is. And even then, we might have a little too many humans around.

Once automation gets here, the top 1% will see no more use for the remaining 99%.

Yes but that also makes the cost of food go wildly down, to the point where it becomes completely trivial for people to donate charity enough to give those workers roughly the amount of compensation that they would have recieved for that labor.

Manufacturing jobs that are open to replacement by automation are already replaced.

People underestimate the complex nature of many tasks and underestimate the specialization and amount of programming it would take to do the jobs in those factories that small, highly tactile fingers attached to highly adaptive brains are currently doing.

Think about a very basic job like janitor in a school. Simple outright but its filled with so many nuanced decisions and fine work, a robot that could perform all the shit a simple janitor can do would take ridiculous, expensive programming, design and manufacturing for the robot that could replace the human.

I guess part of this argument is that AI will figure out cost effective ways to approach all these problems, but this is coming from reddit who cum in their pants every time elon musk takes a shit.

According to reddit, we are one day away from curing cancer, one day away from global catastrophe because of pollution, one day away from fascist nazi rule, one day away from having million man cities on Mars.

They are fucking idiots.

why couldnt he just mandate to make it so certain businesses could not rely on machines like this?

That won't be free. And I don't think that will be fair, or even competitive with the rest of the world

That's even more stupid than forcing hiring quotas.

Some will be from manufacturing. We're not in the age of full automation yet. A lot of manufacturing still requires human hands. But it is true, it's not a long-term solution.

But to be entirely frank, is wrong. These people are much more likely to get a basic income under Trump than Clinton.

>You need someone to gather the raw resources to build the robots

So, have you heard of the automated mining machines they are using in Australia? Autonomous miners and autonomous giant trucks to haul things back and forth.

So that job? Robots.

>You need someone to manufacture the robots.

Manufacturing, Robots. We've been through this.

>You need someone to make the tools needed to manufacture the robots

That sounds like a manufacturing job. Guess who is going to be doing that one?

>You need someone to repair the robots when they fail

This is the sole position where humans are actually going to be useful, for awhile anyways. But that's going to be about 1 person for every 5,000 robots, a person with significant experience and training. So that's still 99.98% job elimination.

>You need someone to supervise and maintain the robots

That's probably going to be done by sensors, cameras, and AI software. there will perhaps be one human per factory to monitor the feeds as a final check, so good job, we're down to 99.97% job elimination.

The problem isn't just that the jobs are going away, it's that those people are now unemployable - the training they have is useless, they are mostly too old to get retrained , and even if they weren't they don't have the money or time to do so.

As time goes on, and technology advances, more and more people are going to get replaced by automation. There aren't going to be any more jobs. A 54 year old trucker isn't going to become an artificial intelligence programmer or roboticist.

IF you actually want to know why this is basically inevitable, read this:

robotswillstealyourjob.com/read

If not, well keep on keeping on I guess. The thing about reality is that it doesn't go away when you plug your ears and wish loudly for it to do so. Corporations stand to make a lot of money from automation, and so you really shouldn't think its even going to slow down.

This

I run a concrete plant, in short, I make concrete that is dispensed into a rotating drum mixer truck.

The amount of chemistry, math, multitasking, paperwork and attention to detail that my job requires, as well as the hours necessitated by the industry, on top of middle management duties make this a job that many, many people are not cut out to do.

I had never thought something as simple as concrete was so fucking complicated and nuanced till I started doing it.

Shout out to my homies who might recognize me, my profession isn't a common one

And you honestly think those robots will magically show up in the next couple years to take a massive amount of jobs away?

In the early 1980s, people thought we would be on different planets by now and flying around with personal jetpacks, not having a (in many senses) reduction in standard of living/upward economic mobility.
We were all supposed to be in a new ice age by now as well.

This, most jobs will be automated, force funneling everyone to join the military for support.

More likely under Trump?
Explain.

Coal running out? Zot.

People have been saying shit like this throughout history

google technology scares.
the printing press, plastics, cars, Y2000 code, the radio, the TV...they all signaled the end of the world to many gullible people who bought really bad arguments, usually from snake oil salesmen

Do you know about any manufacturing jobs other than large scale? Seriously if you think a robot can perform quality control on small pieces with any kind of certainty, for example thermometers. You have to inspect, rotate, and check for defects, something AI is not sophisticated enough to do. How about plaster mold casting when creating steel and aluminum products?

So what if everything is automated? If it did, we would be in such abundance that these corporations would basically donate one dollar a day to give everyone the same standard of living as the modern day 1% do, or more specifically and technically the standard of living of the would-be wages of the most difficult fully-automated job.

1 Dollar a day out of a 200 dollar salary to avoid a revolution and still give everyone a perfect lifestyle is good.

You'd be surprised about the amount of automation warehouse sector is going to go through.
For example, my bro works in the main postal sorting center here in Finland and they're now testing the first machine in Europe, that reads the handwriting in the mail and categorizes all of the post automatically.
It's still buggy as fuck, but once that thing is running properly, it's goodbye to all mail sorters in that place.
The warehouse sector isn't nearly as automated as people might imagine and it still uses tons of manpower.
Also office work is going to be hit big time with programs replacing the people doing grunt work.
Medical jobs too. Non specialized doctors are going to get replaced by nurses + analyzing machines, which is a subject I've actually talked about with medical personnel.
If you're a non specialized doctor, you're practically on your way out.

He won't.
Americans fell for a con artist.

I assumed that he was going to basically force every company that imports heavily to the US to come to the US by imposing a massive tax. is this basically right?

you can't fully automate a factory yet. there always has to be someone ready to click buttons as sensors fire at wrong times, robot does something it's not supposed to do and stops. forklifts can't be trusted to drive themselves and whatnot. jobs can be reduced by 25%-50% with automation at this point.

we've been trying to cut down working hours at Century aluminum and it ends up with more errors and broken machinery

>something AI is not sophisticated enough to do
yet*

>We have the first unified republican government since the 1920s and will control the USSC. It's looking great for getting what we want done

The last unified Republican government was elected in 1928. The Great Depression happened the very next year. I fully expect a rerun in the next couple of years, complete with a Democratic surge in the following elections.

What's that old saying again? Oh, yeah.

Be careful what you wish for. You just might get it.

No doubt about that. The Republicans have signed away everyone's future to a glorified snake-oil salesman.

How many humans work in car factories compared to the 80's? is there much of a difference at all?

You are making a basic error in judgement here, in that you think hard things are hard.

They aren't. Simple things are hard.

You're right about the janitor. 100% right. The janitor's job is one of the hardest ones to automate, because the janitor needs to move around an area, and use hand eye coordination in nuanced ways that aren't repetitive. A robot that could do all of that would be monumentally complex.

But there aren't enough janitor jobs for everyone.

And jobs in factories are not that complex.

Talks about all of the 'chemistry, math and multitasking' that his job requires. Those are the exact kind of false hard things that human beings find difficult but robots find easy.

Computers did the math to slingshot a spacecraft around Jupiter with less processing power than you have casually lying under your bed in an ipod you lost 2 years ago.

I think the words 'independant contractors' and 'at-will employment' are very important in answering the question of where the first generation of robots to do that would come from, but it's not magical, they are already here:

bbc.com/news/technology-36376966

digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/robots-replace-5-million-jobs-2020/

forbes.com/sites/julianmitchell/2016/07/11/robots-replacing-developers-this-startup-uses-artificial-intelligence-to-build-smart-software/#142682bc5bf1

And so on. Growth now is exponential - companies can rise and fall in mere years rather than decades, and in some cases months can make all the difference.

We aren't counting 1,2,3,4,5,6 anymore, it's 1,2,4,8,16,32.

As to the 1980s, well, we do have supercomputers in our pockets and instant access to everyone else on the planet and all the information of humanity, plus funny cat videos, so we aren't doing too badly.

youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

Yeah, that's what basic income is. That's going to have to be what happens.

These numbers are based off AUD.

>how the fuck are they going to pay the cost to buy a robot that builds your hamburger at the fast food place?

Robot cost lets say $12,000 one time purchase + $2,000 maintenance per year

Human $28,000 per year salary and are subject to regulations oh&s etc.

>you think its economically feasible to buy a complex robot+the specialists that need to program and run and maintain it to build a hamburger or pump your gas?

Once you program one robot for a task you programmed them all you don't need a programmer for every robot.

>You really think we are going to have a robot invasion doing complex tasks like logging trees or diagnosing illness in 4 years?

yes

nydailynews.com/news/world/ibm-watson-proper-diagnosis-doctors-stumped-article-1.2741857

I used to build shit for oilrigs. 50% of the time you had to maneuver around the schematics. Good luck doing that with robots.

manufacturing a la 1960s detroit is dead

however, many small custom steel shops exist, and businesses are famished for pro welders and CNC operators and technicians. electricians, master plumbers and hvac and even exterminators with certifications can make good livings.

motherboard.vice.com/read/robots-will-take-two-thirds-of-all-jobs-in-the-developing-world-un-says

It's pretty simple.

1. Trump is not an ideological conservative. At all. He's not an ideologue of any kind. He's an opportunist. Any story of his ideological opposition to such a thing is overblown. He'd probably be less opposed to it than many democrats.

2. These people voted for Trump because people like Hillary and the current establishment gave literally zero fucks about them. They were ignored and forgotten. They would have never gotten basic income under Hillary because of this: She was barely even aware of their existence or their problems and if she was she didn't give a shit.

Merely by having the ear of a non-ideologue president willing to take radical action, they are much more likely to get BI than at almost any other point in history right now. I don't know if it will happen, though.

you wont see any fucking robot building processors, atleast not for literally hundreds if not THOUSANDS of years.

work in automation.
someones gotta build and maintain all the machines.
thats how germany survives.

>Muh depression one year after republicans were elected

You fucking dumb enough to think it takes a year of republicans in office to cause a global depression? Get the fuck out

>Yeah, that's what basic income is. That's going to have to be what happens.

Yeah but I don't think it needs to be passed from the government considering that private charities will almost perfectly match the trend of automation while in the government it could lead to vote buying and taxing businesses too much to pay for welfare that it hampers actual growth.

then the jobs go to people educated in a trade

Repeal NAFTA
Repeal a bunch of constricting ITAR Regulations on Gun Manufacturers
Make guns, one of the only things US machine shops are still doing.

youtube.com/watch?v=2Ce6z-u_Wk0

The great depression was a multi year bubble in the making that started with what is essentially the housing bubble for stock markets.

What were the causes for the Great Depression again? Ww1 clean up and lowed productivity and stock overspeculation?

>I don't think it needs to be passed from the government.

It sure as hell has to.
Because if it isn't, then you're not looking at a steady amount of money every month that's 100% guaranteed by law.
But universal basic income is definitely going to become a thing.
We already practically already have it over here, it's just under a different name and it's a bit of a clusterfuck.
But they're testing the proper UBI here at the moment and it will become reality sooner or later.

I think you're better off expecting the government to act altruistic than corporations or private citizens doing so.

If it was so simple as giving 0.5% of your salary, the rich would already be doing that.

The benefit of government basic income is that the overhead is reduced because everyone gets the same thing. If a privte entity did it, there would be tons of overhead just in the 'interacting with the government' part of the bureaucracy.

Listen bro

Let me give you a simple merchant example

Go back 10 years from now. We used brick phones and very few to no people could see what is coming.

After steve jobs made smartphones a thing, it created a new trillion dollar app industry that not only changed societal behavioral habits but diverted half of all marketing revenue to the smartphone and created trillions more. This is worldwide and it all came from a single invention. If you were to go back in 2005 and make a post like "How will we survive once robots make our #current year brickphone" you'd feel like an idiot now. People can now even pick from a larger skill set, like they are not limited to being webdevs, they can build apps for ios/android, create games, do anything. Again, this came from a single invention.

You should expect the same type of involvement when something revolutionary in robotics comes out that has an equivalent impact to that of the iPhone. This will open up a new age for robotics and tech of that nature. Other examples I can name off the bat are bitcoins, do you have any idea how much jewing came from that alone?

Also if you set software shit aside you have things like cars going electric, alternative energy (which the us will get to 100% in 30 years), bio advancements, cures being developed. If you're smart you'll be taken care of and can leave your mark.

Final pro tip: The tech industry will never stop growing

we have so much coal i dont think we could possibly ever use it all

There's always option to cut working hours to half if not one third from what they're now and make it easier and cheaper for private and public sector to give more people work instead of giving the already employed more work.

By kicking out immigrants who currently do those jobs.

That doesn't help. People get paid hourly, that just leaves more people without a living wage, especially in welfare systems which disqualify you if you start making money.

Changing tariff and tax law so those automated industries stay or move back to the US.

I don't care how much automation the factory has, as long as that factory exists in the USA.

>If it was so simple as giving 0.5% of your salary, the rich would already be doing that.
That's because we still don't have the abundance needed for it to be so cheap, I mean there's maybe enough automation today to automate like, 1% of all jobs? Not even farming which is basically the lowest job ever is so automated that food is free in the USA.

We will build and maintain the robots/drones.

>US billions and make products cheaper than dirt.
IT made the US Jews billions. US workers have lower wages relative to inflation.

Even the much hyped Tech jobs pay less relative to a factory worker in the 1960s.

I work at the post office, our main plant has a fuck ton of machines but they still need people to put mail in and dispatch mail when it's finished on a specific machine. We trail only walmart in the amount of employees we have as well.

Unlike the other states we get 25%tax free cola which is a quarter of our salary on top of our base pay.

I didn't graduate college and I'm working evenings at 21 an hour with ridiculous benefits.

It can be done.

P.S UPS is soo fucking salty we won the contract from amazon loooolllol

this is why its good no matter what, however there should be a discussion about how this will exactly bring JOBS back, the economy will benefit a shit ton but potentially not the job market, atleast it will eventually be like that.

If the rich don't pay there will be revolutions by tommorow, when the rich paying is literally the only form of revenue or sustenance and it's so cheap.

It's cheaper to donate to charity than have huge military suppression to keep revolutions away.

>The great depression was a multi year bubble in the making that started with what is essentially the housing bubble for stock markets.

And with the Republicans dominating Congress, they will almost certainly have not learned anything from the Great Recession. Despite Obama and the Democrats' attempts to stop the bleeding in spite of Republican obstructionism, the GOP will start up the Great Recession Part 2: Electric Boogaloo, and then go on to turn it into another depression.

Automation reduces people needed but by no means removes people entirely from the process. So a factory if 250 slaves in china can be run in the US by 50 employees with automation.

This. Construction (and the materials for it) is one of many fields where automation is in its infancy.

Dude.

The elite are short-selling our future for cents on a dollar.

Even if there was "abundance", they'd just do it more, not less.

Can't even blame them, desu. Humans are greedy.

> So a factory if 250 slaves in china can be run in the US by 50 employees with automation.
The jews and leddit want you to believe the factory should be run by 50 slaves in China.

Last time I saw the numbers 30% of chink shit cost is shipping it across the ocean.