I work for Geonet, a government agency which monitors earthquakes in New Zealand.
Things are going crazy at the moment. The earthquake that hit on Monday morning is an incredibly unusual sequence. We've never seen anything like it in New Zealand. Initially we saw two simultaneous severe earthquakes (Magnitude 6.2 and 7.5 respectively) on opposite sides of the country, which shook for approximately 2 minutes, followed by aftershocks across the country of varying magnitude. The sizes and frequencies of the aftershocks are unique among existing data.
Currently Geonet is not allowed to make any public statements without government approval as they don't want us to spark a panic. The problem is that there is a high probability (our best guesses say at least 70% chance) of the Alpine fault unzipping. If this was to unzip, it would destroy Wellington and possibly Christchurch. The problem is we cannot evacuate the cities just because an earthquake "might" happen, especially since we have never observed such an event and so there is a lot of uncertainty in our models.
The fault unzips every 100 to 350 years, and the last time it did was 299 years ago. When it ruptures, we expect an earthquake of magnitude 8.5-9.5, however it would cause much more destruction than a usual quake of this size since Wellington lies on many connected faults faults.
The expected death toll of an unzipping is between 1000-50,000 depending on the severity.
I know this sounds like bullshit but if any anons here live in Christchurch or Wellington I'd strongly suggest you move to another city as soon as possible.
If an unzipping event does occur it will likely be within a few months to a year. You should not take for granted that the aftershocks stop. If you value your life you seriously need to get the fuck out of Wellington.
>The expected death toll of an unzipping is between 1000-50,000 depending on the severity. Well, that's not too bad.
Kayden Ortiz
Who cares.. Hobbits aren't real anyway
Grayson Sullivan
is this a meme? or are you the same person posting each time. ive acctually been quite worried about this
Tyler Peterson
There was a Geonetfag writing the same thing a week or so back. Proof please.
Cameron Morris
same person. I'm calling within 2 weeks judged on the frequency and highly irregular earthquake sequences from both sides of the country at the same time.
Here's the link to the quakes in realtime: geonet.org.nz/
Luke Bennett
Is dunedin safe?
Elijah Martin
i live on the edge of that red circle, opotiki. should i be worried?
Andrew Flores
No, but you'll feel it. Just like most of New Zealand felt last weeks 7.8 quake.
Alexander Sullivan
are the auckland volcanoes going to blow
Zachary Ramirez
larpers gonna larp
Nolan Harris
>opotiki. I feel bad for you in so many ways
Dominic Anderson
Capped this for future reference in case you are right.
Stay safe kiwi-user
Jace Brown
yeah your full of shit. Opotiki is literally in a swamp surrounded my rivers man. we fucked no matter what
Jayden Nguyen
Well it's a good thing I visited Christchurch before it sank into the ocean
Landon Ramirez
>The sizes and frequencies of the aftershocks are unique among existing data. really? it looks pretty similar to the 2013 quake so far.
Eli Perez
and its half maori
Julian Hall
Run!
Cameron Ramirez
Ops bating hard he just wants to keep all the jobs to him self im onto u fgt
Camden Morgan
The earthquake was a clear message to the powers that were, there is no refuge, they will be smoked out of any bunker any hole.
Hunter Roberts
Someone posted this exact thing a few days ago, we'll need proof.
Thomas Cooper
Who cares Wellington and Christchurch are shit anyway, Auckland is the only place in new Zealand that matters t. Aucklander
Isaac Hill
the flood is the only freedom from this living
Kevin Morales
Yeah we just jiggle their dort with HAARP and shit.
Ian Lewis
>I know this sounds like bullshit you redditors still try too hard
Easton Wilson
your not wrong auckland does have almost has double as many whites as CHCH
Gavin Ramirez
*unzips dick
Easton Martinez
>Australian plate
have the bantz gone to far?
Grayson Sanders
>pretending to be able to predict earthquakes my sides, keep being delusional kiwi, you can't predict earthquakes. Funny how all earthquake researchers are always waiting for "the big one" yet it never comes. In Istanbul they've been waiting for a "big one" for like 20 years.
Owen Robinson
you can predict them tho this was created only 3 weeks ago
We sit on the middle of a giant plate yet somehow there are certain parts which are technically still earthquake zones. In Western Australia our entire philosphy for factoring in earthquake danger is to take a map and draw a big circle around a tiny town in the middle of nowhere that got flattened 50 years ago and just play it safe according to how far away we are from Meckering.
Eli Walker
Lmao when did Kiwis start stealing their arguments from Mexicans?
Jackson Davis
don't mess with antarctica and you'll be fine
otherwise >> nz btfo
Easton Cox
Te Anau will literally be spilt in half cause its on the fault line
Connor Collins
Literally the destruction of Beleriand
Blake Scott
if dubbz it will hit hard with many casualties and catastrophic structural damages
Please Get Dubbz
Levi Lee
Now show the pic one week later. Them japs are crazy.
John Adams
fuck!
Xavier Miller
How does it feel speaking English as a second language you asiatic coon
Asher Barnes
they won't fix this for about 2 years
Andrew Nguyen
>300% more earthquakes in 2012 than 2011 worldwide >200% more than the 2012 in 2013 Guys we really need to stop with this C02 stuff.
Ryder Martin
I would only miss the tepapa and some botanic gardens in wellington. The rest can go down the drain.
Would be better if auckland gets sucked Into the earth though.
Zachary Hernandez
How fucked am I in the Hutt Valley?
Jace Green
Come on KEK lets correct this mistake
Alexander Ward
u get flooded way to easy
Thomas Lopez
The 2 large earthquakes that just happened were caused by the Supermoon event.
The next Supermoon will be 2032 and the moon will be even closer to the earth at that time. So the big 9+ earthquake will most likely happen then.
NZ will be pushed up several hundred meters and become larger than what remains of Australia.
Aiden Wood
ABRAKADABRA KEK POO POO PEE PEE ON ZOOLAND!!!
Tyler Campbell
so close
yet so far
Anthony Cox
Fuck up cunt, I'm white as a fucking lilly, you're just salty because you are an unemployed Maori living off government benefits who doesn't want his shitty little village collapsing in an earthquake. Go back to your pa you savage.
Levi Nelson
u remember his black shirt march against fags
Caleb Butler
YESSS
YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEES
LEARN TO SWIM FUCKERS!!!!!
RIP UNDER THE SEA!!!!
ALLLLLAAAAAAAAAHU AKBAR!!!
Ethan Reyes
nice triple but rerolls don't count
pooland is poor btw
Matthew Russell
What the fucks your problem cunt?
Jack Adams
top kek
Is that a real thing though? Could this conceivably happen in the next couple of millenia?
Yes, stress is generated at plate margins but is transferred through the plates. This stress becomes apparent in areas of structural weakness, e.g. old faults and fractures which can be 1000's of kilometers from the plate boundary.
Isaac Brown
There is literally no evidence supermoons cause earthquakes.
Easton Torres
Clinton and Sauros were worshiping Morgoth, not Moloch.
Christopher Perry
Yes, with crustal displacement triggered via a rapid magnetic pole shift. Either we sink under or rise above. It seems more likely that the plate will push more landmass up and it could happen within the next century.
Gabriel Barnes
Gl nz
Aaron Green
I guess CERN should have thought about that before they decided to move New Zealand
Carter Wilson
>he thinks KEK isnt trying to correct this mistake and sink you all together once and for all
the good news is sea levels will drop and the whole world will benefit with bigger beaches
Oliver Wood
mother nature getting rid of the shit
Joshua Anderson
NZ sits on the mother of all plate boundaries, the moon has fuck all to do with it.
Carson Ross
Da fug do the magnetic poles have to do with it?
Caleb Roberts
hahah someone told me that new zealand is safe when it comes to nuclear exchange.
Anthony Peterson
E hika
Landon Parker
South America insulting one of the lowest violent crime rate first-world countries in the world.
Adrian Wilson
i have to look at the accident waiting to happen everytime i go to the beach
Matthew Cruz
Here's the real question - how will this supermoon event affect me as I fly by on my bike while learning the true meaning of friendship!
>Ide and colleagues noticed the Dec. 26, 2004 Sumatran earthquake, most notable for its horrendous, deadly tsunami, occurred near the time of full moon and spring tide. So did the Feb. 27, 2010 temblor in Maule, Chile. These quakes both happened close to the peak of tidal stress, when the moon and sun teamed up to exert the greatest gravitational influence over Earth. The March 11, 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan, which caused that country’s devastating tsunami, occurred during the neap tide, but the tidal stress was high at that time.
>In other words, during a new moon or full moon, a small increase in tidal stress might be enough to encourage a very small fracture into a major earthquake
Hudson Lee
Based kiwis!
Ayden Cruz
the moon was also doing stuff during the 2010 CHCH earthquake
Wyatt Gomez
every aucklander knows auckland sucks magnum dongs idk what youre on about fagit