Really interesting piece by a historian that was interviewed by Bannon for a documentary:
>During the 1990s, two amateur historians, Neil Howe and the late William Strauss, developed a new theory of American history in two books, Generations: the History of America’s Future (1991), and The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy (1997). They identified an 80-year cycle in American history, punctuated by great crises that destroyed an old order and created a new one.
>Bannon focused on the key aspect of their theory, the idea that every 80 years American history has been marked by a crisis, or “fourth turning,” that destroyed an old order and created a new one: The great crises identified by Strauss and Howe included the era of the American Revolution and the Constitution (1774-1794); the Civil War and its immediate aftermath (1860-68); and the Depression and the Second World War (1929-45). Doing the math, they predicted another great crisis sometime in the first 15 years of the 21st century.
>More than once during our interview, he pointed out that each of the three preceding crises had involved a great war, and those conflicts had increased in scope from the American Revolution through the Civil War to the Second World War. He expected a new and even bigger war as part of the current crisis, and he did not seem at all fazed by the prospect.
Nice. I've been expecting the fourth turning since the Iraq War.
If you compare the greatest generation to millennials, our biggest crisis should happen around this time.
Alexander Diaz
I guess a couple years from now when I'm fighting shitskins and slavs in a world War I'll have this faggot to thank
Carson Cooper
Or we'll avoid it because the crisis is destroying the establishment
There are no armies to fight each other with Trump as president.
Night of long knives and the crisis is over
Camden Reed
Pretty sure the war on terror and the subsequent Islamic invasion is it. It's just more like the Cold War than WW1 or 2.
Xavier Nelson
I think the 4th during started with the War on Terror
Lincoln Brooks
>le ww3 meme OP, your a fucking idiot, wars aren't conducted by countries versus countries, wars conducted via proxie.
sage
Wyatt Allen
This is a really good article. Surprised to see this in TIME!
>As it turned out, Obama failed to embark on a New Deal. He evidently believed that there was nothing fundamentally wrong with our system and that it could be fixed with only marginal adjustments. Late in his term, he told David Remnick of The New Yorker that Presidents could not, in fact, remake American society, and that that was a good thing. That differentiated him from Lincoln and FDR—and also from today’s Republican Party.
Been saying this shit for years and I'm expecting Trump to be our FDR because the generations line up.
Obama is a borderline gen Xer (1961) so I wasn't expecting him to be the game changer. He has a completely different attitude compared to boomers - he has no vision. More of a tweaker than a leader.
Carter Lopez
...
Alexander Torres
>and the crisis is over Trump is the best man to have in power right now. Hillary would have gotten us into war with Russia. But there is no averting pic related. Again, Trump is the better choice for what is coming.
Nicholas Taylor
some think it was the 2008 housing crash.
Carson Hall
The Crisis is just starting. Is Trump The Grey Champion?
Owen Fisher
>Fourth turning
Same as the Fourth Cycle/World which we are in, per Hopi Prophesy Rock - spoken in Robert Stack's voice
Julian Fisher
I've been reading what bannons plans are. He knows the bubble is going to pop but still wants to spend a trillion dollars on infrastructure. I think he wants to get as much out of the system as he can and crash it while trump is in office. It would make purging lefty scum easy if you already shelled out trillion dollars to fix everything.
Angel Fisher
Pretty damn accurate
Joseph Russell
I wonder if Bannon knows about the kiddie diddling ring, and is working to try and expose/stop it.
Samuel Parker
of coarse he does he will start the dam thing
Robert Smith
USA and Russia hitting the EU Army from both sides, with China funding Russia.
EU says diversity is the strength and USA (trump) is evil because of his stances. USA/Britain/Russia/China to finally murder the last of the white race in Europe. (((oy vey))).
Ryder Thomas
Please critique my post it's been weighing heavy on my mind for the past few days
Lincoln Lopez
pretty sure that's the plan to combat climate change. Itll cost too much, take too long, and require legitimate science to save the inhabited landmass that's going to flood. Instead of trying to save us, they've been working up to killing us off. If you at the state of the world, of the incomprehensible calls our government makes concerning foreign policy and war, its the only thing that makes any sense whatsoever.
Liam Rogers
>time.com
Sebastian Davis
Just because there is a war, doesn't mean we've hit a new part of the cycle,
The cycles are driven by how the different generations react to stimulus, ww1 occured during the decay, and America responded differently to how they did with ww2 which was during the crisis.
Making small adjustments to a system that is failing is classic decay mentality, kicking the problems down the road,
The meme war was the start of the fourth and final phase of this epoch, look at the current year meme and the difference between 2015 and 2016 the generational power over discourse has moved to the millennials and as predicted they are not interested in the individualism (libertarian movement) of gen x, or the wishy washy bullshit (muh hippy degeneracy) of the boomers. But are instead focused on the pragmatic restructuring of society.
Straus and Howe talk about how each generation rebels against their parents, and rejects the lifestyle of the generation before them. When I first read their work and the follow-up blog posts Howe was publishing, he was skeptical that this fourth turning would be the same, as at the time he saw that unlike previous generations millennials were still close to their parents and weren't rebelling, I suggest this was because we had not reached the fourth turning, and being from the older generation howe could not conceive that we would rebel in the form of an anti degeneracy movement. The fourth turning only starts when the hero generation rebels against and changes the direction of public discourse, as it is the generational cycle that drives the historic cycle, not the other way around.
Benjamin Ross
That's kind of retarded though. It's not like there's an internal clock in Americans that just leads to a national crisis. Don't mean to sound jewy, but it's pure coincidence.
I think Bannon is alright but he likes to think that he's a master reactionary thinker but he really just says whatever Sup Forums wants to hear.
Ethan Reed
It would never be that simple. The US would be in a civil war before fighting the EU.
No more Euros killing Euros. We need to fight as brothers.
Logan Collins
You seriously think the global elite is just going to roll over and hand all their wealth and power back? They'll start a war within six months over some bullshit.
Cameron Rogers
>Bannon expects WW3 soon
>WW3 >not CW2
Parker Cook
Yep, people don't notice it because they're too distracted with the Israel is ebil, imperialism sucks meme; which is true, but they get too caught up in conspiracy theories.
The argument that the Islamic Movement is the flagship threat in this new age has far more empirical data to support it.
Muslim Brotherhood had been planning this shit for almost 100 years.
Luis Ortiz
honestly how could it be anything other than a civil war again? i don't see it being WW3
there's a deep fracture between two sides of political thought in the US, the conservatives have understood this for a while now but after Trump's victory the left has finally come to realize it as well
John Perry
>climate change 5+c 2040-2060 >revolution 2000-2020 >oil eroi=0 2006-2030 >economic crash 2016-2020 >blue ocean in arctic 2019-2022 >annihilator meteor 2028 (lliterally) >full automation (0 jobs) 2020-2030 >hypervirus probable >complexity collapse likely >yellowstone severely due >nato-russia clashing >politicians all want to fuck shit up >elites making bunkers >7.5+ billion people JUST FUCKING HAPPEN ALREADY!
Gavin Robinson
interesting
Kayden Evans
>You seriously think the global elite is just going to roll over and hand all their wealth and power back? >They'll start a war within six months over some bullshit. They were setting us up for a war with Russia even as Trump was campaigning. The elite will try to take us all down in flames with them before they give up power.
Juan Lewis
that is an absolutely garbage graph
William Reed
underrated post.
Makes perfect sense but I bet a lot of millennials would have been happy if an ideologue had taken power like Ron Paul (libertarian) or Bernie Sanders (hippy degeneracy).
Brody Myers
www.armstrongeconomics.com Lots of BS, but that's every """"""economist"""""
Zachary Howard
loads of bullshit written by closet homosexuals and enjoyed by other closet homosexuals.
just suck a dick already and get it over with, fags.
Hudson Davis
the shemitah year isn't over yet
Brayden Taylor
If you've ever read about the possibility of popular revolution in the USA, they always, without fail, conclude by rationalizing that an external war is preferable to a civil war against the people.
Draw your own conclusions about why they wanted war with Russia now with all the inequality and bubbling discontent.
Joshua Russell
Interesting
Juan Garcia
But some say The Fourth Turnings rotate between an external threat like the American Revolution or WWII, and internal threats that would sunder the union like the Civil War almost did. So this time around it looks like it's going to be internal strife.
then again pic related.
Logan Gray
I broadly agree, bu think the infrastructure spending is part of his plan to keep the economy inflated for a few more years to give conservative/populists/alt-right/whatever his ideology really is a chance to burrow into the system and take charge
Any economic trouble in the next 4 years would see him, Trump and conservatism swept from office in 2020 and any short term gains could be easily reversed. If the economy can be kept on the rails until 2020 then Trump wins re-election easily, his win will be despite an ever-increasing leftist backlash and civil breakdown.
A 2020 election win leads to massive protest alongside the final collapse of the economy which leads to even bigger protests and eventual civil war. If this collapse was triggered now the intelligence & military community wouldn't be controlled by Bannon/Trump and they could easily depose them, pushing it 4 years into the future gives time to reshape the leadership of both institutions so their loyalty can be guaranteed.
US Civil War = US economic collapse = global economic collapse =massive number of wars across the globe = WW3
Grayson Diaz
This isn't even news to anyone familiar with Howe and Strauss' theory. We've always expected it.
However now? With Trump? I don't know if that war will happen. With Hillary it would have been WW3 but it seems to be called off now, so who knows. Maybe we'll just colonize Mars instead.
Jeremiah Taylor
well, i've done well following those >absolutely garbage graph
Luis Rivera
btw, gender politics were a big deal during the last unravelling in the early 20th century:
There is a chance that a serious civil war in the US could morph into a WW3. We've been involved in other country's civil wars for a long time. Why shouldn't other countries or parties get involved in ours?
Hasn't Anon5 been writing about this?
Lincoln Evans
this. The plan was most definitely to at the least spark a race war and import jihad to kill us all off. because for all practical reasons, that's the only goddamn thing that made any sense from looking at obama's reign of terror across middle east and Africa and hilllarys campaign
we stopped it for now but it still feels like something big is coming
Ayden Carter
Yep for sure. Everything he says is just words to satisfy some obscure online Laotian cuisine discussion forum.
Tyler Hernandez
>Why shouldn't other countries or parties get involved in ours? It would be a shit storm
Liam Price
Honestly sometimes big is most likely gonna happen but our side is far more likely to win at this point.
Asher Torres
This. Plus I expect nukes puts a dampener on the war expression this time. But I think wenhave to wait another 30 years while the economic/fertility-rate cycle plays out to be sure.
Aiden Morales
Conjecture. The post.
Cooper Lewis
Yes, but it would be a tempting shitstorm for some, particularly countries like China and India that cannot feed themselves. The Chinese are already buying up land and animal operations. Why not lop off the west coast or help set up a People's Coastal Republic of Cascadia. That would get them our best Pacific military bases as well. And maybe Vancouver. It would be very tempting.
Brayden Smith
>Darkness is good, Dick Cheney, Darth Vader, Satan. That's power. It only helps us when they get it wrong. When they're blind to who we are and what we're doing.
literal mad man
Charles Martin
>Doing the math, they predicted another great crisis sometime in the first 15 years of the 21st century.
They should do more math because we're about to finish the 17th year of this century and nothing has happened.
Grayson Hall
do you two not see the cycles? shit, wake, this might be like '29. nothing is linear, and there is nothing new under the sun where our human nature is concerned.
Logan Ross
The writing is on the wall and has been for awhile. Anyone with their heads out of the water should be expecting it. It's always the economy, stupid. Our economy is terminally ill and needs a reset, just like it did with WWII.
Christian Harris
TFW WW1,WW2,WW3 are all the same conflict.
James Reyes
Well things have happened alright..
Gavin Lopez
a dumb theory that at face value does not take into account context of time periods.
muh 80 year cycle lmao
btw strauss was major influencer of neocons. lets hope bannon is ok. i get a bad feeling about him. i believe he is evil. what "working class" guy works at goldman?
Angel Thompson
>With Hillary it would have been WW3 but it seems to be called off now, so who knows. Defcon was lowered, that's good.
Parker Hughes
it is a cycle
Nolan Hernandez
>race war That was stupid of them from the get go. Radicalizing mexicans would have been better. You'll never import enough arabs to start a Christian v Islam civil war like you can in Europe with their land border.
War with Russia would also have worked from their perspective, especially with a "limited" nuclear exchange wiping out the vast majority of the population in cities in both countries.
If Elon Musk keeps trying to become Iron Man we might just make it out of this gravity prison and into the rest of the solar system. It'll be great!
Jeremiah Young
Fear mongering from the left. Prosperity. Shadilay.
Daniel Carter
>we might just make it out of this gravity prison and into the rest of the solar system. It'll be great!
Jackson Smith
PREDICTION Nuke war with Russia, USA is wiped out the map
check 'em
Lincoln Flores
jews?
Dominic Anderson
well boys, it looks like we have four years for final prep. get yourselves right.
Carson Johnson
While getting to the moon is cool, we need a more sustainable way to get past LEO than chemical rockets. Personally I think we just need a miles long railgun set-up in the Nevada desert, or maybe in Mexico closer to the equator.
Adrian Lopez
but global warming could be combatted with simple measures like massive tree planting operations and stopping deforestation by turning to hemp.
The fact that this hasn't been done decades ago is proof that the government wants us all dead and we never had a chance to "elect" to fix it
Robert Collins
Yes and no. Depends if your donkey prefers carrots or turnips
Colton Gonzalez
>While getting to the moon is cool, we need a more sustainable way to get past LEO than chemical rockets. agree...but i so love the roar of a controlled explosion.
Hunter Harris
Man made global warming is a lie. Climate change is real, it happens, but nothing man does affects it much. It's driven by the SUN, not CO2. There's no point in fighting it when even the most dire predictions are a few degrees change on average. Protip: the temperature changes that much DAILY, just use A/C.
Christopher Brooks
>Man made global warming is a lie.
you are terminally stupid. Even if the insane amount of greenhouse gases we have been pumping into the atmostphere every day since the dawn of the industrial revolution isn't having an effect on the planets ecosytem(it is, you fucking retard), pollution is real and a simple trip to SLC on an inversion day should convince any idiot that when breathing the air for a few hours during the day is the equivalent of smoking a pack and a half of cigarettes pollution is bad for you
Luis Torres
Indeed
Chase Ortiz
And yet the data JUST DOESN'T SHOW IT. Temperatures over the last two decades haven't followed ANY of the models put out by AGW fearmongers. CO2 increases FOLLOW temperature increases, not the other way around.
Face it, you fell for a scam because you were too lazy to read the research, understand the theories, and look at the data yourself.
Jaxson Butler
i never had to fall for common sense. Even if it isn't a major contributor to warming, its a major contributor to pollution, destroying potable water and wildlife.
Ian Myers
CO2 does NOT do anything to potable water or wildlife.
In fact it's actually good for plants. They grow better when there's more CO2 in the atmosphere.
You're trying to shift the goalposts here and it's not going to work. AGW is a lie.
Luke Price
WW3 won't be with Russia, it'll be with China. They have already threatened about Trump "upsetting the world order" and are literally building a military island base in the South China Sea
Julian Morales
Not him and I hate the EPA but I do have to deal with them.
Here's a fun fact, one chlorine molecule destroys 100,000 ozone molecules and depletion of the ozone layer has a correlation (a heavy one) with an increase in Fluorine in the atmosphere indicating HCFCs are to blame hence the switch to HFCs. What do you think about that?
I do want to add the most common HFC now has similar GWP but does not deplete the ozone layer which is interesting.
Mason Watson
>What do you think about that? I think depletion of the ozone layer is a separate issue from AGW. They're not even related except that they both involve the atmosphere.
Anthony Collins
Ozone is made by the sun anyway.
Aiden Adams
So just for my understanding, what part of an HFC makes it more likely to cause GW and why is depletion of ozone a non factor?
My knowledge comes straight from what the EPA rapes us into learning so I'm genuinely curious.
Aiden Thomas
Trump will war with iran and break your economy. Man has no clue what is going on. >but but the apprentice!
Jeremiah Evans
((((Time))) scaremongering. Nothing to see here.
Anthony Powell
the fuck is this sell out leaf
would you like me to remove my support of America and shift it to non-criticism of America. Would you like me to kill you leaf in our own rake squad.
You post an American hawk as a Canadian , on a Canadian goose, maybe i wont feel sorry if the west turns brown, yellow, and cucked.
You better watch it buddy
Andrew Harris
...
Ayden Russell
>The current economic crisis is not a failure of capitalism, but a failure of culture.
Rewrite history all you want, but the 2008 crisis and globalization were direct results of laissez faire capitalism. Credit default swaps and securities rating agencies created an enormous debt bubble. Real estate speculation and subprime mortgages created a ton of false value. Outsourcing jobs to 3rd world countries was done to cut costs by avoiding workers rights and environmental regulations.
They'll blame Cultural Marxism and socialism while avoiding the selfishness that led Trump to avoid paying taxes for the past 2 decades as well as the entire Swiss banking industry. Spin and outright lies ignoring the truth so they can pretend they did nothing wrong.
Now you're telling me WW3 is right around the corner? We're fighting Islamo-Fascism and just elected a fascist. What a fucked country. I'll let the Americucks be themselves though.
Aaron Stewart
>and are literally building a military island base in the South China Sea
...while Russia is "just" annexing it's neighbors. No biggie amiright?
Angel Sanchez
It depends on how well the federal government is able to keep any sort of organized rebel movement contained. If a piece of Texas essentially breaks off from the rest of the union and gets in a standoff with the government, that's manageable. If you have connected groups of active seditionists waging guerrilla war against major cities and strategic chokepoints with no end in sight, the media will eventually fall short in its ability to spin the story as a right-wrong dichotomy. People will get hungry, riots will begin to accompany the raids, and the government would be forced into increasingly tight corners. The moment they blow up too many civilians attempting to cripple the active seditionists, you get foreign boots on the ground to 'liberate' the U.S. citizens from an oppressive regime. We've seen this story played out many times, in all corners of the world, over the past 30 years.
Liam Rodriguez
I think you're overestimating the left's ability to learn from mistakes.
>that wasn't real socialism
Jayden Thomas
Witnessed
Gavin Phillips
HFCs do not cause global warming either. Where did you get that idea, specifically?
Also depletion of the ozone layer is a separate issue from AGW. The problem is largely solved now. Why are you conflating the two?