Monty Hall Problem

Can canadians even do math?

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ocw.mit.edu/courses/mathematics/18-05-introduction-to-probability-and-statistics-spring-2014/readings/MIT18_05S14_Reading3.pdf
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who is this guy and why is he everywhere

He is the one behind it all.

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What's his name again?

Jimmy Nutron

a jealous guy is spamming his facebook pics because he got cucked by him

GOTTA BLAST

over 9000 horus in ms paint
all possible choices and outcomes covered under all possible door combinations
the choice if "switching" or "not switching" is exactly the same

yes, surely your retarded ms paint drawing is better than actual mathematicians and simulations

What's your excuse?

XD I was hoping for something like this

you just cant get over being wrong, huh? canucks and brits BTFO

Oh god, he's french too?

disprove it
you can't
because it's right
because it's better than actual mathematicians and simulations

no, you're btfo
this conclusively shows all the possible outcomes
prove me wrong faggot

I'm not willing to sell my soul to some roastie whose ridden the cock carousel

Who the fuck is this?
Why is he all over the board?

To be fair, the monty hall problem is an intermediate probability problem and it should not be expected that individuals on the lowest IQ board know graduate level probability theory.

Once you realize that the axiomatic definition of probability coincides with our intuition, you will understand why an answer is correct, even though at times the axiomatic definition looks as though it produces counterintuitive answers.

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literally any website that discusses Monty Hall, including the past two threads here, contain the solution. but please keep arguing and sink more time into ms paint

No surprise he cakes himself in makeup

Jew just being a jew. Slowly and steadily he is getting his image out, at first it was every so often. It's been picking up, notice how his name NEVER gets mentioned or anything. Just pictures. He's marketing himself, wouldn't be surprised if he starts streaming soon.

Sup Forums should use meme magic to raise the money for her in return for them promising to never have children

post more jimmy

Good god can this faggot finally shave and get a proper haircut
I hate his face

>not taking into account the host only opens doors that don't have a car behind them

This is why you read the entire problem, you miss critical information otherwise

You guys do realize this this is perfectly valid in the scenario that the host can choose to not switch and behaves randomly, right? Marilyn vos Savant is completely aware of this and specifically comments on this interpretation of the problem, which she agrees resolves differently.

The "Monty Hall Problem" only resolves to 2/3 chance on switching if the host must give you the option to switch unconditionally.

Unfortunately, most of you don't actually understand the problem and just regurgitate the answer without bothering to reason about it because you're weak minded people who simply don't want to be seen as going against the popularly accepted misunderstanding of the issue.

16 fillings.
Fucking hell brush your teeth.

>graduate level probability theory
Unfortunately, the Monty Hall problem is the most elementary, nontrivial example of a conditional probability. This is something you learn in the first stats class you ever take (for example I learned it in highschool).

Reeeeeeeeeeee

also
>simulations
i just dissected all the possible computer simulation outcomes in my shitty ms paint drawing
i just proved it right the same basic way you prove a coin toss probability

Him and his Mormon girlfriend are Internet superstars who want money to help with the girl's dental problems.

DISPROVE IT
you fucking can't because you won't even look at it because MUH CONCENSUS
you're fucking btfo m8

>not looking at what i posted
i literally address it in the second half of my explanation
take some adderall and try again

I applaud your attempt, but your solution is not rigorous.

the answer really is 2/3.

because of the axiomatic definition of probability and its consequences. It seems counterintuitive at first glance, but based on our definitions of probabilistic events like union, intersection, mutual exclusivity and so on, this is the answer. If you are really interest, I can direct you to some statistics materials so you can learn why.

No it doesn't - your outcomes where the host SHOWS A CAR are not in the basic rules of the problem.

>literally not being able to scroll down
>literally not scrolling the fuck down

what do you mean my solution is not rigorous?
it's all the possible outcomes. that's how you calculate the probability - by having possible outcomes that, given enough simulated attempts, even out. what did i miss?

>how does probability work

britbong btfo again and again

I hate this faggot for the simple fact that his beard is so fucking gay and reminds me of a Muslim terrorist. Nu-male genocide when?

100 DOOR MONTY PROBLEM makes this more obvious

You pick door 1, Monty opens ALL other doors except door 69

You'd be stupid not to switch.

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You include two outcomes for each time the car is picked, but the host doesn't do both - he picks one OR the other. BTFO.

I unironically appreciate this explaination
>t-thanks

and after i dissected all the possible outcomes of the problem your probability numbers were shown to be incorrect. in fact i did that before you posted this incorrect model that you found on the internet somewhere. the real question is why are people so scared to be proven wrong and will defend their position before even looking at someones counterarguments. you clearly did not even look at what i posted, the mere suggestion that you're wrong is enough to make you go online and post some random probability branch you found.

This is incorrect. You're simply adding instances of outcomes without multiplying them by their respective probability. When the host has the choice between two goats, you don't count each one as its own full possibility, but each by half, because he has to choose.

what? i'm trying really hard to udnerstand what you just said but you're terrible at explaining it. please try again or visually represent the outcomes that i included but should NOT have included.
otherwise you're BTFO

some fag who got doxed but then the thread was deleted so a lot of people know and a lot of people don't

I'm not sure if you're trolling or just incredibly stupid, but your "if you don't exclude the times where the first door the opens has the car" scenario isn't a part of the problem.
Imagine you are in the game show and you choose one of three doors, one of which has a car behind it. The host opens a door you didn't choose, and behind that door is the car.
"Sorry pal, but you chose the wrong door. I hope you at least had fun on our-"
"I would like to change to the third door," you say, your retard brain barely managing to put together a cohesive sentence.
"Wait, you would uh," the host stammers, "I'm sorry sir, but you already lost-"
"I'm changing my guess to the third door. I need to prove that math is a Jewish conspiracy also the world is only 6000 years old and flat," you somehow manage to say as the drool that you don't have the motor control to stop drips all over your XL Sonic the Hedgehog t-shirt that is three sizes too small.
"OK, I guess... Show us what's behind door number three," the host says, not wanting to argue with you as that would only prolong the amount of time he has to spend in your presence.
The third door opens, and behind it there is no car.
"I'm not sure what you were expecting, but-" you cut the poor host off once again.
"Look mom I did it I proved that the maths are wrong and this proves all those counselors wrong I am more intelligent than the average gibbon."
The game show's ratings tank as viewers feel insulted that they had a mentally ill contestant on the program who didn't even win a prize.

see:
You didn't include the conditional probabilities of each possibility, you mere listed them.

It may be fruitful to study up, if you are so keen

ocw.mit.edu/courses/mathematics/18-05-introduction-to-probability-and-statistics-spring-2014/readings/MIT18_05S14_Reading3.pdf

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you needed to write all that shit to tell me that the first part was not the actual problem? i know, you fucking dumbass. that's why i continued below. what is it with people not able to scroll downs today.

Think about it this way. Say you flip a coin. If it's heads, you win. If it's tails, you roll a die. If the die is one, you win, otherwise, you lose. By the counting logic, you have this:

Heads: one chance of winning
Tails, 1: one chance of winning
Tails, 2-6: 5 chances of losing

So you would calculate that you have a 2/7 chance of winning somehow, even though it's pretty clear you have at least a 50% chance of winning just from winning the coin toss.

here come the REEEEs

You are for some reason including two outcomes where the car is initially chosen (car is behind 1, player chooses 1). You have listed both "host shows 2, switch, lose" and "host shows 3, switch, lose." You are improperly double counting the loss there in the outcomes. If the player picks the car, a switch is a guaranteed loss. If the player picks a goat, a switch is a guaranteed win. 2/3 versus 1/3 based on there being two goats and one car. You, sir, are BTFO.

ding!

This BFTO the brit

Why the hell would you switch to something that was not a car if the car was uncovered?

Actually show how his calculations are incorrect, dingus.

Brits and canucks will forever remember this as the day they got BTFO by god tier burger education. This is why they're cucked and we have Trump.

Blanket statement. Please rephrase.

This image. 2/3 vs 1/3 I don't know how to explain it in a simpler way.

yep that makes sense. thank you.
i will go off myself now.

This problem is only confusing if you don't remember that Monty Hall himself knows what is behind every door. I have actually seen the problem presented without that information before and that leads to a lot of the confusion, I think (well, I hope).

But that's why he deliberately listed out all 'final' outcomes exhaustively, even if some part if it would immediately cause a loss. That way all the outcomes listed have the same 1/12 probability and count equally, making it work out logically.

ohh yeah by the way
>uk flag
>brit
you assume too much

shut up bong this is our thread now

At least you admit it - thank you! My plan to open casinos in the UK is paused for now. Canada, tho - I'm going to build 20 casinos there, and the only game will be my custom Let's Make a Deal. The cucked Canuck just kept screaming that the host removes a goat either way, this it's 50/50.

Well at least your hours of MS Paint taught you a valuable lesson about probability.

But user, you have a 7/12 chance of winning.

>British education

Someone give this guy the taxi cab arrival problem and see his mind explode

Someone needs to shoot that guy man, he literally has NO face hair, ONLY neck hair haha

>Not posting the shopped version where his beard and hair are switched.

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Parker Hartzler

instagram .com/ilikebumshaha/

He is a junkie heroin scum that lives in Calgary. He was recently begging for money for his gfs dental work who lost all her teeth to smoking heroin