What are her chances?

What are her chances?

Is the gap between her "media chances" (i.e. lies) and her "actual chances" as wide as it was for Trump?

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fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Élection_présidentielle_française_de_2002
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Her chance of first post best post in this thread are zero because I have the first post and best post.

P.S. Fuck you stupid australian fuck

Delet this.

>répondez svp

Jean-Claude Van Damme talking to yourself again?

she does not have a chance, FN always overpolls because normies vote in mass against them in the second round

>FN always overpolls because normies vote in mass against them in the second round
This is illogical.

The fact that everyone bands together against FN has nothing to do with the FN polls.
People who tell pollsters they'll vote FN are voting FN.

fillon isn't jeb, right wing normies will choose him over her

bump

Statistically she has more chances than Trump has at the same stage of the election.
However it can't be compared to Trump because Dahnald:
- participated to republican primaries (while Marine has her own party)
- we have 2 turns elections

She needs 51% to actually win the second round, yes?

Her percentage won't change much from the first to the second round, right?

>mfw she is probably the "best" option for the next election
Republicans and socialists are going full retards here

her odds just shortened...

>probably

50% + 1 vote, not 51%. And yes, basically her pourcentage won't change much between the two round

>50% + 1 vote, not 51%.
thx.

Any insight you have on the matter?

I feel like round 2 is a hard thing to predict.

She def appeals more to the left then fillon does id imagine.

Erratum. She need 50% + 1 vote to win the election on the first round. In the second round, the best of the two candidate win.

she's not gonna win cause white working class french aren't as economically disadvantaged like white working class americans

It's all about economics not terrorism or immigration

thx 4 clarification

Does this really change much though?

It's basically her against the rest in the second round.

Or does the turnout usually make a big difference (i.e. leftists not showing up for the 2nd round if it's a right-wing candidate vs Le Pen)?

They will show up because these zombies will vote for whoever the fuck juices tell them.
Not even talking about our muslim majority going full force against her as they did in 2002 against Jean-Marie Le Pen

Well, take a look a the 2002 presidential election.

fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Élection_présidentielle_française_de_2002

Ok, Marine take some distance from her father, but still. That is basically how it's gonna end if she's in the second round.

Left and right come together to fight the monster FN. For democraty blah blah blah.... they have no honor.

I think Le Pen will do better then people think in round 2 because shes actually more palatable to the left then Fillon who is very conservative.

>They will show up
Even though voting isn't mandatory, leftists still vote for the right-wing candidate just to spite FN?

Le Pen isnt a threat to their hand outs like Fillon is and she will not have government behind her.

Shes also doing well in your rust belt calais-lorraine.

I think you will be suprised next year.

Wouldn't her anti-EU stance also help her, since so many Frenchies seem to hate the EU now?

Yes, literally Hitler and all that.

Thats the hope,

She can hopefully get the left behind her and win round 2.

Its hard to tell because I cant find good polling stuff about France.

The big area to look at IMO is how is she doing in S. France.

They seem to be a good place for her to gain ground, they are leftist and agrarian. Also Fillon is over the top catholic and they dont particularly like that because of the crusade against them...

That's true, Marine knows this and is playing more left than anyone else in this election.
She is losing a good chunk of the bluepilled right wing by doing this, and that's exactly why Fillion was chosen against her.

A real shift in the wings and some memes could really throw her to the top, but i'm afraid my countrymen are absolutely brainwashed.

Think again!!!! It's all about candidates and ideas then policy

hopefully this refugee attack will help

Thats basically Trump though.

Be a general us burgers can only follow since nothing will piss you frogs off more then google translated autism.

>A real shift in the wings and some memes could really throw her to the top
Not to mention Muslim terror attacks like Berlin and Zurich just now.

Aleppo has fallen, things are heating up.

I honestly think they're low. Her opposition is right wing enough to steal some of her base.

Bigger.

Unless Fillion really does alienate "moderate conservatives" so they won't vote you're gonna have 2nd round of Fillion vs. Le Pen. Against socialist she can easily win, against him she's gonna have to battle leftist cognitive dissonance to gain leverage against him.

If she would get 51% on the first round(very unlikely) she would win.

We'll then it's officially the Democratic process is not working then. Rebellion needed.

I think it's a long shot, but it could still happen. Since Fillon is also very right wing, it could piss the lefties off so they don't go and vote (who would normally vote for any candidate but FN) and that could at the very least allow Le Pen to do better than expected. It's not like Trump though.

Is she polling stronger than Fillon atm?

No. She's actually behind right now more than Trump was at any point in his campaign, hence I said it's a long shot.

Although in some of the first round polls she's leading (just as Hofer was). Apologies for the double post, forgot to mention this.

4 points in the general.

Im telling you polling on round 2 seems very suspect, its way too hypothetical.

Thanks for clarifying that. Yeah, and as we've seen polls can be wrong (with Brexit, that had only two options as does round 2 of the French election). The issue is that the round system, it's almost like it's designed to keep the FN out and all the cowardly tactical voters will come out and vote for what they consider the lesser of two evils, but leftists will probably hate both Fillon and Le Pen. We shall see, as I said she hasn't got no chance but it's a narrow one

Yeah its hard to tell from the outside, its important to see where she is polling strongly.

If shes doing well in S. France it could mean the left will come out for her or stay home.

Fillon is a thatcherite and a vocal catholic.

None, be realistic.

Would be funny if the left was pushed to elect La Pen based on their own rhetoric.
>What's that? You're not voting La Pen?
>It's because she's a woman isn't it?
>You fucking sexist homophobe!
etc

For sure, we can't rely solely on outside media and think that's all there is to it. I have contacts in France but they're all redpilled so obviously they're going to say she will win.

And that's very true, you might remember what happened in the regional elections there last year, she was on course to win 6 out of 13 regions, but the political elite had a full scale meltdown and all the tactical voters came out and defeated the FN. Same happened in Austria.

Exactly, so the left will hate him. He also opposes same sex partnerships etc too so hopefully that will keep the left away. Unless a socialist goes against Le Pen in the 2nd round (which is unlikely), then it could turn out differently

Nah France clearly hasn't had enough terrorist attacks to push them to vote for her

The globalists will fight hard against her. They are sneaky. They put out soft pieces on her after demonizing her. They saw the Trump win getting closer. They adapted. Sneaky.

The problem is we need Frogs to step up on this.

The language barrier and unfamilarity with french media makes it hard to use autisms and magic.

In the US and UK we know how the media works so we can use the globalists tricks against them. Not so in france.

I dont think thats going to work, the left that will vote for france are the same left that voted for Trump. Basically union members, I doubt they actually subscribe to the SJW shit.

She wont win Paris but if Aquitaine as southern france come out for her in round 2 she can win.

You have not yet experienced the french media Backlash when lepen is strong in any election.
Literally Hitler
TV shows about wwii and Hitler every day.
(((Experts))) on economics and (((geopolitics))) that debate only with themselves (never in front of someone from the party) and paint the FN policies as EXTREMISTS THAT WILL DOOM US ALL.
This narrative applied for months will get the retarded leftists to vote for whoever is against her. Even if it is economically against them.
They only think about immediate rewards and appeal to their feelings.
So petting them for having defeated LITTERALY HITLER will make them move.

I see people trying to channel meme magic that got Trump into office, but it's quite hard to do that in a country where they only work 35 hours a week.

We can at least try though. Remember the EU and their media are in a lot of cases worse than in the US- it's going to be a hard battle but it can be done if the Frogs put their mind to it

Yeah and most of Sup Forums doesnt speak your language or know how your press works so guess whos going to have to step up if you want to take your country back?

Posting some memes.
But French memes are low energy.
Sad!

...

...

I can imagine. And probably a bit of that muh holocaust granny will come out again like it did in Austria, and the stupid lefties will buy it as always. I just want to kek if they vote Fillon in and his economic policies mean they get fucked in the ass.

But yeah, the literally Hitler thing is sadly strong over there, as are (((expert))) elitists who think they are better than everybody else and anyone who isn't [insert political elite member] is literally hitler and bad for the country, but of course we can't be defeatist yet.

...

Its not about posting memes.

Its about getting shit out to the population.

Basically the goal has to be to disrupt the smear campaign that the globalists are going to run against Le Pen.

Basically when the left comes out with crazy crap about le pen you counter with crazy crap about fillon.

Just out of curiosity, for anyone in the know, would Fillon actually be THAT bad? I mean surely he won't be like a van der Bellend in Austrocuckland?

Let the fire rise, she'll raise her odds exponentially by the time some random mudslime makes a new exhibition of how peaceful is their religion and how bright is the future they're briging to europe a few weeks before the elections (as they always do on purpose)

People are being constantly reminded by them of how bad a decision they made when they elected incompetent politicians thst decided to import them with no accountability and had chosen to close their eyes to the problems they've brought along with themselves

France is not like austria where there's just a major city that counts all the votes in the overall, the outcome of the election can actually be quite different since Hollande's party is going to shit and the leftists won't get the chance of cockblocking le pen in an ellection once again

Yes exactly

And what burgerbros doesn't get is that Trump won because what he was doing was new and the media only had a year or two to paint him as Hitler.
The FN exists for like 60 years. And since its creation the media started to frame them as Hitler.
So we are fighting against almost a century of propaganda while the US were fighting low energy 1 year propaganda

Hes a shill for Hollande and the EU.

He had the government fuck up Sarkozy.

Also if Le Pen brings a refrendum of French exit and its passed the EU is finished.

Hopefully enough people realize its a tactical vote if they want out of the EU.

He's using the same shit as Sarkozy did.
Appeal to the right by saying extreme shit.

But when he will be in office he will do fuck all about it. Push more wars for democracy that will bring more refugees. Sucks more Nato cocks and push more globalist shit.

And the same cucks are falling for it because they don't have the balls to vote for LITTERALY HITLER

You're right. And the media will have honed it's tactics following Brexit and Trump's victory, especially since as you say, the French media has been saying "hurr durr the FN is literally hitler" ever since it's inception. Also burgerbros don't take into account the 2 round system they have there. Was talking to a French backpacker here and I spent two hours trying to redpill her on Marine Le Pen but it was next to impossible.

Remember Austria too, I legitimately thought Hofer could have a chance but I remembered European leftists- they have no honour.

For now the best she can do is 40%, we need several happenings in France to uncuck the right wing voters

Basically if someone has 51% on the first turn he is directly elected president and there is no second turn

It won't happen, almost never happened since the beginning of the fifth republic

No the left is completely cucked they imagine she is Hitler 2.0, it's just like with Trump, except that the propaganda is in place for decades

She can appeal some former far left voters, after all she has the support of the indutries workers that voted communists and socialists before

I suspected as much. That he was saying all this right wing shit to get the right's vote and appeal (actually, some of what he's saying sounds appealing until I remember that he's saying it because he's a Sarkozy lite). So pretty much a Sarkozy 2.0. Great. At least with Trump they might not have as much NATO cock to suck but these EU shills are all the same, like two sides of a coin.

Let's hope people finally get sick of the literally Hitler, unlikely, but we can at least say we tried.

Agreed, shes never winning Paris but she can win in the South West.

Women are the worst here.
I redpilled my wife. She voted for holland in 2012 we got together the same year.
I showed her the (((coïncidence))) the fact that it was always the religion of peace, the dinner du CRIF (same as the AIPAC), the peaceful children refugees. Now she will be voting FN in May.
Women shouldn't have the right to vote. They have no stance except the one that fed to them.
First it was the church or the husband but since (((they))) destroyer those values, the main stream media is now whispering their shit in their ears.
Women suffrage was a mistake.

Le Pen doesnt need the women, she needs the grangers in Aquitaine and the machinists in Lorraine.

AWOU~

Just repeal women's suffrage and everything will sort itself out. In Austria two thirds of women voted for van der Bellend, like they want to be culturally enriched by shitskins. If only it was as easy to redpill all women as it was your wife we'd have no issue. I dated a German chick once, she was a stereotypical leftist, voted SPD etc etc. I think I might have managed to redpill her to vote AfD but I don't know, I don't speak with her anymore. But enough of me going on about myself.

You're right. Women usually radiate protection to their children, which is fine. But these days a lot of women are SJWs and no man wants to breed with them, so the radiate their protection to the brown hordes. They focus on emotional rather than fact.

Well since women are more than 50% of the pop, she needs some of the women's vote.

I don't know, south west is very cuckservative/libtard
(btw thanks to the region reform that was basically gerrymandery, because of that my former region that voted massively FN is under leftist control because of occitan cucks)
She will win most of the south and east though

Lorraine is pretty much won, she needs Champagne, Lyon and the south west to be sure

ET LES PUTAINS DE BRETONS CES ENCULES QU'ILS ARRETENT DE VOTER À GAUCHE!!! MERCI

Population isnt whos voting, dont buy the globalist shills.

I think Nice might have had enough of the carnage.

You bastard frogs need to start generaling.

What are you tabloid websites etc that we can use.

Who can we get to retweet shit etc.

One more Paris style attack and she'll be a shoe in

probably 0 idk doesn't France have a system where they need to be affirmed by all the mayors or something

It's pretty strange that the home region of the Le Pens votes leftist so much.
Especially considering how their regional and historical identity is one of the most unique and distinct in France. You'd think they'd value regional autonomy more than leftist globalism.

Ils n'ont pas encore été atteint par la vague marron.
Mais je crois qu'en démantelant Calais ils en ont envoyés quelques milliers là bas.
Ça va peut être leur faire prendre conscience.

>Mais je crois qu'en démantelant Calais ils en ont envoyés quelques milliers là bas.
J'allais juste dire, c'est pas si loin quand-même.