10 years until China beats the USA

Do you think people in the West will tolerate being overtaken by China?

Or do you think Westerners will demand war?

bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-us-vs-china-economy/

Other urls found in this thread:

theamericanconservative.com/2012/08/14/raceiq-irish-iq-chinese-iq/
i.imgur.com/awVKTLr.jpg
twitter.com/SFWRedditImages

First off Trump says his goal is 3.5%. Second China according to earlier projections was supposed to pass us like two years ago, but their market crashed. Today China has too many bubbles to sustain a 6.5% rate. Matter of fact the chinese goverment recently stated their goal of 5%. So the person who wrote this is not very well informed.

I heard the same thing 10 years ago and we will heard it in next 10 years as well.

Extrapolating economies never works.

The Chinese economy is one bubble on top of another. Can't say I don't feel bad for the people when the bubbles pop.

It's from Bloomberg and I'd say they're pretty well informed.

Anyway, the important thing is that they are due to overtake the US in the next few decades, at current growth rates.

How will Americans respond to that?

That's just a terrible fucking argument. Look how much China has climbed in the last 25 years (pic related). They weren't even in the top 10 economies in 1990, now they're number 2.

And they recently overtook the US for the largest GDP when adjusted for purchasing power.

Seriously, if you think China won't overtake the US, please explain how that will happen? How exactly is the US going to suddenly boost its economic growth?

china is just re-injecting money into their own economy they will crash/halt in 2018/2019

So do you deny that China is, on current growth rates, set to overtake the US?

How do you imagine that this won't happen? It will require China to stop developing (which won't happen) and it will require the US to grow MASSIVELY in the next couple decades (which won't happen)

Even if China takes longer than the OP pic shows, it's INEVITABLE. Isn't it? Explain how it isn't? I think that war is the only thing that could stop it.

It really doesn't matter if they have bubbles.

Look at pic related. India and China used to have the biggest economies purely because they had the most people (they've always had much larger populations than Europe).

It was only the Industrial Revolution that allowed Westerners to produce more value per worker than other countries. That's the only thing that allowed our economies to become bigger.

Now that China and India are learning these industrial techniques (and technological techniques as well), what is to stop them from developing to the same level of technological advancement as the US? And as soon as they do, their economy will be larger than the US's, won't it? Because they have far more people. And they will be producing just as much economic value per person as the US, at that point.

The only thing that can stop China, I say, is war. Wouldn't you agree?

10 years ago
> muh bubble, economy is fake, they just like totally crashed already, stock market is manipulated, China will be Soviet Union in 2007/8
9 years ago
> muh bubble, economy is fake, they just like totally crashed already, stock market is manipulated, China will be Soviet Union in 2008/9
8 years ago
> muh bubble, economy is fake, they just like totally crashed already, stock market is manipulated, China will be Soviet Union in 2009/10
...

today
> muh bubble 2017/8!!!!

Surely it is inevitable that they will eventually overtake the US though, right?

1) The West has much smaller populations than China/India
2) Our economies were always smaller, throughout history, because of this
3) Industrialisation allowed us to create more economic value per worker (more efficient production methods). This was the only thing that allowed us to have the biggest economies.
4) China is now adopting these industrialisation and hi-tech techniques, which will allow them to create just as much value per person.
5) They will overtake the US as the largest economy.

Seriously the only thing that can stop China is FORCE. Military force. And China has a massive fucking military.

Of course the US's should technically be better.

So surely I'm right in saying military conflict will happen?

You are exactly right.

Look what happened with the Soviet Union - they were such a threat that the Cold War lasted for decades, and almost became real war!

So why won't that happen with China? It will.

They're doing an amazing job of keeping the bubbles from popping honestly, or atleast mitigating the ripples. They didn't get to be the powerhouse they are through shear luck.

Another Cold War would be a blessing for the west. America was at its best during the Cold War.

Perhaps you are right, and I guess that's what America has invited with Trump.

Yes you're probably right it would be a good thing. A stagnant country gets nowhere. Just like a mob boss - he has to constantly be asserting his authority, or he will get overthrown.

I just want other people to realise this is inevitable. You seem to be the first in this thread to realise this.

>raw GDP

Zzz

This.

Plus China is always getting exposed for falsifying numbers

>They didn't get to be the powerhouse they are through shear luck.
Exactly. This idea that the entire Chinese economy is a bubble is ridiculous. Sure they will have some bubbles along the way - hungry Western investors will probably create them. But the simple fact is that the country is rapidly developing, from an agrarian economy into a fully industrialised, fully high-tech economy. They are slowly becoming a 1st world country (yes they're not they're yet, but they are certainly on their way)

I've been saying war is the only thing that can stop them - perhaps there are other things. Political turmoil, but that doesn't look likely. People are happy with the regime because it brings success. It could happen at some point though. Or natural disaster? I don't think that has ever ruined China though. Or famine, which I think has ruined China before. Famine could happen I suppose, since they are still relatively agrarian out in the rural areas.

You are a fucking moron. How is that not a good measure?

Americans aren't going to like it when China has the largest economy by GDP are they?

And adjusted for purchasing power, China ALREADY has the largest economy.

Seriously you're not presenting a fucking argument.

He fell for the China meme

Like everybody else you have ZERO FUCKING ARGUMENT

Do you not have a brain?

Who cares, their total GDP may be insane at some point but it doesn't mean much distributed across their massive population. They will have massive inequality, much of the Chinese populace is already illiterate peasant farmers, pollution will be killing or harming massive amounts of their otherwise productive workforce, the rural populations will suffer from essentially no infrastructure or planning meant to help them, their low-trust culture doesn't promote all that much overall societal success, and their quality of life, even in spite of their GDP will be shit. The US has an extremely high GDP compared to every Western European country and our quality of life isn't as good as theirs, or at least places like Norway or Sweden because our non-white population leads to lower societal trust and average productivity + using more government services to subsist which diverts from potential universal healthcare system plus scientific funding, etc.

What even is your point? What are you arguing?

Why would western populations demand war if China's GDP overtakes theirs? Why would anyone care?

>Who cares, their total GDP may be insane at some point but it doesn't mean much distributed across their massive population.
Yes it does, it means they will have the most powerful economy, which means they can build a military to rival the US, and try and become the superpower of the world.

>They will have massive inequality
Just like the US.

>The US has an extremely high GDP compared to every Western European country and our quality of life isn't as good as theirs
Yeah but you're the world #1 superpower, and I'm saying that China will be vying for that position in the coming years, just like the USSR did. Quality of life doesn't matter. Lichtenstein isn't a world power is it?

>Why would western populations demand war if China's GDP overtakes theirs? Why would anyone care?
You SERIOUSLY BELIEVE that Westerners are going to not react if China overtakes the GDP of the USA? Is that seriously how fucking naive you are?

You think Americans are seriously just going to watch themselves become only the second biggest economy in the world and be completely oblivious towards it?

> Inequality like the US
LOL do you even know what poverty in China is like? Many of the rural population, hundreds of millions of people, don't even have functional utilities, their level of poverty is beyond what many in the modern Western world would even find imaginable.
Also they'll be held back from building a military as large because their per-capita productivity isn't as high and they'll sooner or later be forced to invest in MASSIVE countrywide infrastructure campaigns plus efforts to deal with and mitigate the extremely negative effects of severe pollution at the macroscale beyond anything a Western country has ever dealt with.
> They could become a superpower and rival of the US
Eh, fine, not the end of the world, it may hurt the petrodollar and lead to some catastrophic consequences along many different geopolitical lines but competition will end the current hegemony which is leading to the cancerous US-led globalist anti-human movement and may lead us beyond the current stagnation we are facing.

Yes thats what I think. Again, why would they care? GDP means nothing to individuals. They aren't going to be looking at China's $14k GDP per capita, unbreathable air and poisoned drinking water with jealousy.

ahahahahaahahahahahaha the britbong chinks sure are mad right now

> (((adjusted)))

you won the argument

Remember when India was going to be a superpower by 2020?

> And adjusted for purchasing power, China ALREADY has the largest economy.

I just adjusted my own personal wealth to be greater than that of the entire USA. Wow, I'm a global superpower now!

Remember when Brazil was going to be a superpower by 2015?

Regardless I still have a good feeling China is going to fuck us over.

China's economic growth is based off people leaving agrarian lifestyles to go to urbanish areas

Eventually that ends

USA could easily go back to the days of 10%+ growth if the white population reverted to birth rates that they had 100 years ago
Plus more white immigration

Eventually the chinks will plateau because their IQ numbers is a lie, and chinks just don't innovate like whites do.

>what is to stop them from developing to the same level of technological advancement as the US?

The fact that Asians are robots and have no capacity for innovation so the will always just be copying western innovations and will never be a major leader in technology, art, culture or science.

That and the fact that rising wealth in china undercuts their competitive advantage in labor markets. The richer they get the harder it will be to do business and they will probably collapse during their transition into a post industrial economy.

>Country with 4 times the population will eventually have higher total production
>Really makes you think

>mfw I'm already a minimum wage factory worker

Get cucked by the SAC (small asian cock) and come do menial labour with me

>their IQ numbers is a lie
This is true. I've been to China for business many times. It's a hellscape of air pollution, noise pollution, ground pollution, and aesthetic pollution. I dread every time I have to go back because the depth of the shithole nearly sends me into a panic attack.

By then capitalism will be so passe no one will care.

How can they fuck us over without hurting themselves 10x? They're a regional power at best.

The future of China.

The Chinese are a meme and have been a meme for 30 years. Westerners just don't understand their culture and mindset and foolishly project their own mentality onto them.

>Also they'll be held back from building a military as large because their per-capita productivity isn't as high and they'll sooner or later be forced to invest in MASSIVE countrywide infrastructure campaigns
Hm, maybe, if the people rise up. And I suppose they could do. China is a country with a history of revolutions.

That's what it will take though. It would take the people to rise up and overthrow the government, or at least to cause mass disruption, enough to force the government into acting.

>Eh, fine, not the end of the world
Again, you are a moron. There is seriously NO FUCKING WAY that Americans will be okay with China becoming the largest economy.

Trump is already proof that they aren't happy with it already! So how can you POSSIBLY think that normal Americans would be happy if China got even MORE powerful comparable to the US?

I'm sorry did you just notice who got elected as POTUS?

> They aren't going to be looking at China's $14k GDP per capita, unbreathable air and poisoned drinking water with jealousy
You fucking moron, the largest economy means the most influence in the world.

You are right that their economic success could be hampered by internal tensions, the people rising up for better quality of life. But I am purely talking about the hypothetical scenario where China's GDP *does* overtake America's. In that case, there is no way Americans will allow it without action.

I'm literally as white as they come, Tyrone.

I don't think we can compare brazil with China... China is largely ethnocentric and doesn't have a redistribution left wing government like brazil

It's not hard when your opponent's best argument is that their plumbing-free home is equivalent to a Western one.

I've been to a hospital in China. It was this grand dirty structure with one doctor who prescribes natural herbs for whatever ails ya. Please don't ever use "adjusted" figures again.

China, ethnocentric? They don't even have a common language. And their government is just as corrupt as Brazil. It's just a different-looking house of cards.

>You fucking moron, the largest economy means the most influence in the world.

It clearly doesn't. The EU has a GDP on par with, or by some measures exceeding that of the USA but they don't have anywhere near as much influence as the USA. Military power is important, cultural soft power is important, and diplomacy is important, all of which are completely alien to China.

>I am purely talking about the hypothetical scenario where China's GDP *does* overtake America's. In that case, there is no way Americans will allow it without action.

What do you imagine they will do?

all it needs to happen is for China to desaccelarate (which is already happening) to the point their growth is not significantly larger than US' (which is very likely)

This is basic maths.

China will end up like Japan, will plauteau at some GDP per capita and be stuck there

The only thing is that they are 8 times the US population, and 15 times japans
So they WILL pass the US in total GDP eventually.

> NO FUCKING WAY that Americans will be okay with China becoming the largest economy
We have some of the lowest civic participation in the Western World, America is becoming a mongrel country that's more a glorified economic zone than a nation, and as it happens more and more people care less about what happens. The US didn't just destroy the USSR when its power/economy 'rivaled' the US, there was conflict sure, but China's massive population makes something like this an inevitability that can't really be stopped, overall the Western countries will remain much better overall countries and geopolitics will actually becoming varied and interesting, so that's a consolation.

Unlike Japan, China is very diverse (genetically speaking). While they have enclaves of high IQ, the majority of the population are dumb as bricks. I wouldn't be so confident. They might pass USA total GDP for a short-time while slave labor is still profitable, but they will never, ever pass our per-capita GDP.

How long before Chnia realize they fucked up their population composition by forcing 1 child and making people abort girls, there are already 40 or 400 milions male gooks more than female.
Ticking bomb, if they start to patch it with other asians they will have shit like sweden with enclaves of hostile population and since asians hate each other there will be nice bloodbath going on.

> China's massive population makes something like this an inevitability that can't really be stopped

wrong

>China's economic growth is based off people leaving agrarian lifestyles to go to urbanish areas
>Eventually that ends

Er, why? Did it end for the US? No - it keeps happening more and more. The number of people now working agrarian jobs in the US is tiny, in relative terms.

>USA could easily go back to the days of 10%+ growth if the white population reverted to birth rates that they had 100 years ago
What is going to spur them to have loads more kids, Justin? You think they'll just suddenly decide to do this out of thin air?

How are they going to afford these kids?

China only has ~3.5x the US population and ~7-8x Japan's
Do you know anything about China? The Han are an ethnic supermajority with over 90% of the total population and Mandarin is spoken by the corresponding amount of the population. China's immigration policy directly privileges the Han and other native Chinese ethnic groups and they are ethnocentric as fuck, if you don't look Chinese you'll probably never be able to become a citizen or even be accepted by most Chinese people. Also WTF does a corrupt government have to do with a nation's/peoples' level of ethnocentrism? Europe and America were completely ethnocentric up until the 50s or so and their governments ran fine.

> Did it end for the US?
Yes of course it ended..
Is there a massive quantity of subsistance farmers in the US? Not at all.

India will eventually become an economic power, I never said eventually means right now or in the next 5-10 years, they're going to want to adopt Western material and cultural technologies in order to advance their secular state of well being, it still doesn't mean they'll be nice countries even if they're politically or economically powerful.

Back in my day we tricked the little yellow Chinaman to give dollars for a piece of paper.

India will NEVER become an economic power.. most of the country is literally fucking africa, with small amounts of high caste people who hold shit together

Of course this is why the leftists push anti-caste system garbage, to destroy the high IQ indians.

>The fact that Asians are robots and have no capacity for innovation
>no capacity for innovation
Nice meme

(Apologies for the horrible resolution, it's the most readable version I could find)

>That and the fact that rising wealth in china undercuts their competitive advantage in labor markets. The richer they get the harder it will be to do business and they will probably collapse during their transition into a post industrial economy.
Give me one good reason why they won't just continue transitioning into a post-industrial economy just like the US and all of Europe have done?

Prediction:

The Western elite will launch an operation shortly after China shoots ahead. Alt-right puppet leaders will send as many Chinese back to China as possible. Priority will be placed on college educated people, especially women.

The ex-buzzfeed employee wearing his surgical mask and trying to navigate the smog will be more powerful than any bomb. The outcome will be disastrous, just like it was when Germany sent Lenin into Russia.

My point is that Western people won't like it will they?

In fact I've already been proven right with the election of Trump. The idea that China is now threatening the US is what Trump's campaign was all about.

>Get cucked by the SAC (small asian cock)
No thanks

>come do menial labour with me
I do like stuff like that 2bh. The minimum wage thing sort of sucks though.

automation makes most of the workforce obsolete

Right, but as we've already established, a country doesn't have to have the finest standards of living in order to be a threatening world superpower, does it?

The USSR was a formidable foe during the Cold War. Their living standards were shit.

USSR was a 3rd-world country with a 1st-world military. Sure, China could go full Stalin and do the same, but the country would probably fracture under the same stress the USSR suffered.

India will eventually become an economic power, I never said eventually means right now or in the next 5-10 years, they're going to want to adopt Western material and cultural technologies in order to advance their secular state of well being, it still doesn't mean they'll be nice countries even if they're politically or economically powerful.

India is 99% poo-in-loo with 1% high-caste holding it together. China is similar, except the ratio is probably 95%/5%.

China is not at all similar
China is probably more like 50/50
With southern chinese being lower IQ sorts, and northern chinese being tall high IQ sorts

Average IQ of china maybe being in the low 90's

>It's from Bloomberg and I'd say they're pretty well informed.

They aren't.

>It will require China to stop developing (which won't happen)

US tariff => Chinese factories no longer competitive. That simple.

Nice source.

>Robert Kyle Grenville Temple (born 1945) is an American author best known for his controversial book The Sirius Mystery: New Scientific Evidence of Alien Contact 5,000 Years Ago

>In a review of The Genius of China Peter Golas wrote that " Temple is not very good at qualifying. He seizes with, unabashed enthusiasm on any Chinese advance that might be seen to prefigure a later development in the west. In doing so, he all too often overstates or misstates the facts." Golas also notes that Temple relies almost exclusively on the work of Joseph Needham and Science and Civilisation in China, ignoring later research which has made some of the texts Temple used obsolete. In the Beijing Review Needham himself criticized the book writing that it had "some mistakes ... and various statements that I would like to have seen expressed rather differently"

Being a good country =/= being a powerful country, how many times does this have to be said?
By manner of simply having so many poo-in-loos who at the very least buy products and services it will become a de-facto influential economic player.

>LOL JUST A MEME BRO

I already used the nominal figures, the pic in OP uses nominal figures

What, in your opinion, will stop China from overtaking America for the largest nominal GDP?

I completely agree with you.

Eh, even studies done on illiterate peasant Chinese farmers throughout the country get results averaging IQs of 103-105. At the same time it's a meme to some extent that national success is isomorphic to average IQ. The Chinese probably aren't individualistic nor high-trust enough to sustain the type of successful civilization Western countries can, even if their bulk economy in aggregate becomes massive if simply due to the ridiculous number of people in the country.

50/50? That seems very generous based on my experience there. But then again I haven't been to India.

> Average IQ of china maybe being in the low 90's

Based on my business travels throughout China I'd agree with that. Most of them are hispanic-immigrant tier.

>Eh, even studies done on illiterate peasant Chinese farmers throughout the country get results averaging IQs of 103-105.
I highly, highly doubt this. Sauce?

And i have heard this threat in 2000. Then 2010. Where we would all be speaking chinese. Its almost 2020. No. China may be a super power. But thats it. Unless it fevelops a navy and starts global policing. Thats all they will be. So save the fear mongering until teally needed

>The EU has a GDP on par with, or by some measures exceeding that of the USA but they don't have anywhere near as much influence as the USA.
That's because the EU isn't a nation and it doesn't have a military.

The Arab League isn't an influential power is it? No. Supranational bodies will never have as much power as nations.

>Military power is important, cultural soft power is important, and diplomacy is important, all of which are completely alien to China.
Lol keep dreaming
China has the third most powerful military in the world
China is the most important power in East Asia (its might far outweighs Japan now)
China has the most powerful active nukes (5 Mt - the most powerful US active nuke is only 1.2 Mt, less than one quarter the power)
China has the longest range ICMB (Dongfeng 5, capable of striking any target apart from South America. Pic related - DF-5A is Dongfeng 5 - it's the purple one, the largest one. And yes Dongfeng is a funny name.)

>What do you imagine they will do?
They will want an American leader who will assert their presence.

Clearly they've already shown that with Trump. They don't want a leader who will just allow China to become the largest superpower. They will demand that something be done to retain America's #1 status.

The Trump presidency will be very interesting because we could well see confrontations about the South China Sea, or about Taiwan - actually we've seen both already, but I mean we could see proper military confrontations.

Whether WWIII will happen, eh. It could do. We'll have to see how it plays out.

Superpower goes beyond GDP. There's cultural influence, military strength, soft power, etc. Name a major cultural export of China beyond the occasional movie that isn't complete trash? China is a paper tiger. Every 10 years I hear that in 10 more years they'll overtake the West. It's not happening.

China was supposed to do that 5 years ago.

theamericanconservative.com/2012/08/14/raceiq-irish-iq-chinese-iq/

I suppose it has slowed a little in the last two years, pic related.

Still. I think it will be very interesting. China is clearly a hugely ambitious nation, looking to assert its international presence. We see that in the South China Sea, and we also see it when Xi Jinping tells his people of past Chinese humiliations at the hands of colonialists, such as the British - just like how Hitler would tell the German people about their humiliation in WWI.

And, furthermore, China's massive military parades, such as the one they had a year ago (November 2015), commemorating the 70th anniversary of Victory in Japan, at the end of WWII. It was a fucking gigantic parade, and just a massive middle finger to Japan (and the entire West, really).

Confrontation will happen. I am sure of it.

>theamericanconservative.com/2012/08/14/raceiq-irish-iq-chinese-iq/
So they're basically reporting the CCP-reported scores for provinces (which, if you knew ANYTHING about how China worked, are inflated), and extrapolating to IQ.

Yeah no.

Stray chinks please get the fuck back to China and choke on the smog.

At the end of the day China is heavily, overwhelmingly dependent on the West (almost entirely the US) having demand for its products and engendering too much conflict with them will yield massive net negative economic dividends for them. Combine this with the fact that China is generally self-focused moreso than the West, more specifically the US at this point, plus the fact that they have no insane desire to reshape the rest of the world or their allies in their image and it looks like China may get entangled in some type of conflict with other nations, but they're going to try and minimize/avoid it and it probably won't be anything too direct.

>China will end up like Japan, will plauteau at some GDP per capita and be stuck there
And what did Japan do? They were ruthlessly imperialistic (pic related). The only thing that stopped them was two nukes. And they've been cucked ever since.

So if you're right, then China will be ruthlessly imperialistic, and it will take a world war (and nukes) to stop them.

>The only thing is that they are 8 times the US population, and 15 times japans
>So they WILL pass the US in total GDP eventually.
It's only 4x the US, and 10x Japan.

But anyway, how do you think that will happen without Americans getting pissed off? That would be the first time that a non-Western country had the world's largest economy for hundreds of years. And I don't think Westerners would like that.

Thats basically just a meme, China is not dependent on the West anymore than the West is dependent on China
They are self-sufficient on everything except for food & oil

Why is the deranged chinaboo always a british person?

really makes me depressed desu, to see my people liking chinklets

With this thread, Brits have ripped the shitosting title from the roo's. You all witnessed history.
England is truly cucked and fucked.

He means Japan of the late 80s/early 90s, where people said exactly the same things you are saying about China, about Japan. Weirdly enough it didn't happen.

(((Bloomberg)))

Yes goy, western dominance is over, it's time to embrace globalism for your own good!

> independent except for food and energy

Thanks I needed a laugh.

I'm not a "Chinaboo" you fucking cunt

I don't LIKE China. I just don't think people are aware of the threat that China poses.

I don't want the West to be second best. I want China to know its fucking place.

If we don't act, if we don't respond, they are going to become the largest economy on the planet. And I don't fucking want that.

Picture related, China had a massive military parade in September last year to celebrate victory over Japan at the end of WWII. Basically it's a massive middle finger to the West and their allies.

>his country is infested by spics and niggers
>he thinks we're cucked
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

>china's economy is in a huge bubble
>expecting it to grow linearly for 10 more years

>China has the most powerful active nukes (5 Mt - the most powerful US active nuke is only 1.2 Mt, less than one quarter the power)
>China has the longest range ICMB (Dongfeng 5, capable of striking any target apart from South America. Pic related - DF-5A is Dongfeng 5 - it's the purple one, the largest one. And yes Dongfeng is a funny name.)

Implying you know ANYTHING about the American military. We spend more than the rest of the world combined on technologies you've never heard of. China would fold like wet tissue paper if it came to a conflict.

Americans will care - in fact they already have by electing Trump.

Or they just conscript all of the spare males into their military and use them to wage war.

They already have the largest active military in the world, by almost 1 million people.

how can the US compete with slave labor.. it just doesn't work that way.
China is playing on a different level

This. Glad someone finally agrees with me on that.

Thanks Pierre / Arjen. Another rare someone who agrees with me.

> They already have the largest active military in the world, by almost 1 million people.

Oh noo, a million extra peasants with rifles, whatever shall we do.

i.imgur.com/awVKTLr.jpg

i don't know ask Vietnam