World war almost guaranteed within 20 years

>China will grow larger

Seriously though, pic related is the conservative GDP (and derived military spending) for China and the USA until 2030.

If that doesn't scare you, I don't know what will. China will become the most powerful country in the world by GDP in 5 years, and the most "powerful" in terms of military spending in 7 years.

That isn't even the scary part.The scary part is these are current figures assuming everything stays the same (with a conservative chinese growth estimate). This doesn't take into account that the GDP per capita of China is around $9000 compared to the US $54000. That means China is tapping (on average) barely 1/6th of the modern potential of around 1.4 billion people. Now expecting China to reach the economic equivalency of US citizens in 8 years is pretty unrealistic, so let's say they "modernize" their population to only half that capability at $22,000. That would bump their 2024 GDP from $26trn to well over $50 trn, compared to the US $23 trn.

By modernization, I'm talking about modernizing mainland china's economy. For comparison, HongKong's is $34,000. It's not that China doesn't have the capability to modernize its economy, it's that it's only done in coastal areas.

As for the rate of modernization, 8 years ago their GDPpc was around $4000, so groing from $9k to ~$20k in 8 years is by no means unreasonable.

>TL;DR
>China is within 5-10 years of outperforming the USA in GDP and military spending on it's current path
>This time could be greatly reduced if they focus on modernizing their mainland economy.
>China will naturally be too strong to contain within a decade
>yfw they are building military bases on islands in preperation for their coming conquest of Asia and war with the USA.

Other urls found in this thread:

ibtimes.com/china-economy-surpasses-us-purchasing-power-americans-dont-need-worry-1701804
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_China
twitter.com/SFWRedditGifs

>be America
>destroy the British empire instead of solidifying it's total control of the earth for all eternity
>immediately have civil war
>almost immediately start importing non European immigrants
>2016
>56%

SHEEEEEEIIIIIIIITTTTTTTYY

>anyone surpassing america's military within the next 20 years
Mathematically Impossible

>implying China would be colonizing the planet without the help of US and Nixon since the 70s
Nixon literally created superpower China and the US continued to transfer the wealth and future of the west to China
would china be what it is today solely based on china's abilities and without western transfer of wealth and technology?


US is China's greatest ally. if it was not for the US, China would still be a country based on subsistence farming.
US literally created superpower China...
Nixon birthed superpower China and the US continued to transfer the wealth and future of the west to China
china would not be what it is today solely based on china's abilities and without western transfer of wealth and technology

China's rise was due to a transfer of wealth from the west.

>murica transfer of wealth/technology/industry to poor rural china
>murica create power strong china
>murica claim a strong china a problem
>murica plans on fighting strong china with totalitarian TTP eroding more citizen rights
>not creating a scapegoat to implement totalitarianism

There are conflicts in South America, all across Africa and Middle East.

with big countries having their fingers in a lot of them. World War is already here.

You have no idea how poorly equipped China is. They have knock-off USSR shit. Loads of their divisions are equipped with T-54's. That's how bad their force is.

The amount of work needed to get them up to challenge USA is so huge that it just won't happen.

China isn't going to go to war with USA. It's going to essentially make a missile shield wall. By breaking the various international law by expanding their atolls and islands so they can hold SAA, radar stations, runways, bunkers, missile silos and docks, will make any attempted attack by sea impossible.

China will have to deal with their internal problems soon. I guess they can try and solve it with a total war,though i expect there to be more of a civil war for them. Maybe I'm optimistic though. I still don't know where they're pulling this projection from.

>we need to do this now?

tl;dr don't trust picture graphs.

Remember when Japan was the scariest thing back in the 80s? Thats what will happen to China. Wealth a d Power circulate the globe and distributes itself to the countries currently offering what is sought after.
When/if many eletronic manufacturers move away from China in the next years, and Europe starts tariffing general chink shit, China implodes the next day. Only the USA managed to stand for a longer period because it was an amalgamation of EUROPEAN immigrants competing against each other. Don't know what may happen with all the chimps though

I do not think this is surprising; in a sense, it is a return to the natural order of things. The Asian continent (prior to the machine revolution and Western imperialist intervention) had the richest nation states and largest populations of the time, far surpassing Europe.

I have read that after World War II, the United States held ~50% of the world's total wealth, yet had only 6.2% of the world's population. Since then, US overseas policy has been based on maintaining that divide, with nations generally viewed as "cooperating" reaping vast economic rewards. Yet I do not think this system is sustainable, not because I think the American elites who run the country are incompetent, but because it it simply too large a problem to contain and fight against. The most that can be done is to delay it further, not stop it.

I don't think the world war is guaranteed though. I think the problem lies in the potential miscalculations that could come from the combination of an aggressive American overseas policy and aggressive Chinese expansion (diplomatically and economically) that is greater than what we see today (spralty islands). The attempted economic isolation of China does not help either.

I don't know. Often I find myself thinking about the position Korea will take in the coming years. It was once a puppet state of China. Why specifically are you worried about Chinese rivalry?

>You have no idea how poorly equipped China is.
Now, sure, but look at the graph. In 8 years time their military spending will exceed the US, and that's a MINIMUM estimate, assuming they don't get their act together and modernize their nation and infrastructure. They will be the biggest economy in the world, they will rule the world's markets and thety can buy whatever high tech military they want, or develop their own.

>will make any attempted attack by sea impossible.
This is the whole point. America's power is their carrier fleets. If they can't get anywhere near China due to a vast array of well defended islands armed to teh teech with carrier-destroying shit, they aren't going to be able to stop China from doing whatever it wants. Once it gets to that point, China will annex Taiwan, and will settle all those regional disputes it has. While the rest of the world watches, unable to do anything.

I swear that I've seen this graph many times since the 90s and the point China overtakes the US is always 5 years away. Like I saw it back in 1995 and it had Chinas GDP exceeding the US by 2000

China is already diversifying their economy and building an empire. They have massive investment in africa and around the world and they have several large countries to sell products to that aren't the USA.

Sure, it could fuck up and fail, but all it has to do is play safe and modernize, and that massive population will provide all the economy they need.

china will never beat us, i mean i dont hate china but its just they treat there people so shitty it hurts looking at modern day china, they really need to get alot of the factories and smog. Really modern day factories in china need automation they kill people daily.

>sees incorrect data in the past due to his own blunder
>assumes all new data he sees is also false

this is bullshit. the chinese will never be relevant. they're 50 years behind us (on average).

I literally made the graph 20 minutes ago with the most recent stats. I also did a lot of research into their GDP per capita and their civic modernization strategy and determined that their advancment is consistent in that regard.

It all depends what they invest in. They slowed down recently because they made some bad central planning decisions, but their increase in GDP per capita hasonly been accelerating.

the only problem is that is not revelant to this thread, is onigger is giving them food liscenes to sell food to us. Multiple companies get chicken and beef from china im pretty sure. Funny thing is one of my favorite tea companies china owns it now and the green tea smells like piss coudlnt finish my glass.

How is it my own blunder when the people extrapolating the data never get it right?

China didn't exceed the US GDP in 2000. It didn't exceed it in 2005. It didn't exceed it in 2010. It didn't exceed it in 2015 and it won't exceed it in 2022.

These projections are always wrong.

Have you ever travelled to China?

this is also not including the fact the china is going to invent a super powerful AI that will kill us all

>Donkeys are birds.

You believe that now too you stupid dumbass

>logarithmic growth
Le thrashman iswaiting for your post

I have and its a fucking hellhole

try not to get eaten alive by an escalator when you travel there
>JUST RIKE DA WEST

>in 20 years

Whats the point, I'll be 45 then. Why wait for a war 20 years when we can fight the meme war RIGHT NOW ?
Praise kek.

>massive wealth inequalities and essentially forced class system in which the coasts dominate the inland areas
>"haha china has no problems ignore ghost cities ching chong ding dong"

If China is so great why are you in the UK, Zhang?

POO

It doesn't matter that on average they're 50 years behind. Their coastal cities are 10 years behind at most.

This is actually a strength for them. They have 50 years worth of economic potential they can unlock. America right now has no potential because it's at the forefront (aside from a couple of EU or Asian countries.)

America can't really unlock much potential economically because they are already making use of tech and industry in modern markets. They have modern farming, modern construction, modern mining and modern infrastructure.

Large parts of China has none of that. There is plenty of china that hand pick crops, live in mud huts, and have never seen a paved road. All of those hundreds of millions of people are literally waiting to be put to better use. Mechanized farming, construction of infrastructure, highways, houses. Mining, industry etc.

That's over a billion people that all need modern houses, cars, toasters, roads, etc. There is literally hundreds of trillions worth of economic potential that can be put to use.

America? Improve some infrastructure, and re-vitalize manufacturing... maybe get a commercial space programme. That's your only options aside from get a larger population.

Because right now China is shit. It might get better slowly over time but right now it's shit

Let's hope Trump knocks those chinks down a couple dozen pegs.

Israel & the Anglosphere will be alright
we'll be just fine!

What about China's Xbox huge housing bubble that's going to crash their economy with no survivors.

>china starts "conquest" of asia
>accidentally wakes imperial japan back up

>what are variables

The projections made in the early 90s and 2000s didn't see the tech boom coming (revitalizing US banking and high tech) and didn't see the 2008 crash.

These projections assume the status quo continues. This particular one assumes 4% growth, which is lower than their current 6%.

Their economy isn't shrinking, so unless they do something royally stupid, they will overtake the USA within a decade by virtue of having a larger and modernizing population.

sure would be wild

China has always been the 1st world power throught history, until the british empire and now the USA, China is just getting back its average rank.

i'd rather have a gookcountry, than a nigger country world power #1 thank you very much

Kek get fucked weeb

There is so much wrong with this post i dont know where to start.

China has a GDP per capita of $0. There is no "per capita" b/c all of them are soulless, retarded robots. Hence there are no people to divide GDP into.

Unless their programming goes awry and throws off western commands they should be safe.

>imperial Japan
>no military

Once China has the power to say "fuck off" to the USA, if Japan hasn't been given the right to build a huge military, they are going to get anally raped by China. Korea too.

It doesn't look too scary. At some point, maybe soon, America will try to hurt China, but eventually they'll just accept second place.

French are my least favorite posters on this board

Never once have I seen a good, insightful or funny post from france

You're overestimating China. They can barely get their carrier to work, and it has a ramp.
They're good at ignoring copyright law and piling up dirt in the ocean, but all signs point to them sucking at naval warfare.

>The projections before were wrong because of unforseen circumstances!
>These ones will be right though, barring no unforseen circumstances

This is so fucking dumb. The pointis we can't predict the future. What we CAN do is look into the past and see how reality matched expectations and when we do that we see that Chinas GDP growth has CONSISTENTLY fallen below expected growth. I see no reason why this trend won't continue and you're the retard yelling "No! It will be totally different this time!"

>Europe will try to hurt Greece, but eventually they'll just accept the debt.

why does it look so realistic, the picture?

>The attempted economic isolation of China does not help either.

They are trying to do the same to Russia, which does appear absurd, geographically speaking.

>>"haha china has no problems ignore ghost cities ching chong ding dong"

Didn't imply that. China has plenty of problems.
The very fact that they have massive wealth inequalities is a strength though. They have an entire mainland in which to begin an industrial revolution with modern infrastructure and industry, farming, etc.

since you haven't bothered to read the thread, go

Why do asian cities have no architecture whatsoever? What kind of disgusting mongoloid destroys the heritage of it's kind? I say "it" because no sane person would ever call an east asian a human being.

The government of China and government of US both have larger domestic problems than war with one another. China doesn't scare me at all. They are only able to grow because of the U.S.

of course an Australian doesn't understand science or statistics.

I bet weather reports trigger the fuck out of you since they are always wrong right?

Blame Mao, he destroyed basically everything from the imperial era apparently. Not much left standing.

>China doesn't scare me at all. They are only able to grow because of the U.S

>Russia doesn't scare me at all. They can barely beat Finland.

>tfw your chinese bros will surpass the dirty fucking anglo as the world's leading superpower within your lifetime
>tfw burgerland will be 100% mexican within your lifetime
>tfw west brought this onto themselves and they won't be able to stop it

mehmet fuck off

>y-you need to travul to chyna and give them moneys before you can judge them!!!!
Kill yourself

burgers you should just preeemptively nuke Vancouver

it's for the greater good

Maybe George shouldn't have been such a massive scumbag about tea, taxes, and other general shittery that he did to the American colonies.

If weather reports where always saying it was going to rain tommorrow and it was sunny 20 days in a row I'd start to suspect their accuracy, yes. I also like how you're trying to fall back on science when I'm the one backed by the weight of evidence and you're the one desperately clinging to projected figures which have been consistently failed to mach reality.

But go ahead, tell me why science says it's totally going to be true this time and then I can enjoy your excuses in 2022 when it doesn't happen yet again and you have to blubber about 'b-but how could we have predicted that'

>if Japan hasn't been given the right to build a huge military

The only thing stopping them is their own constitution, and the fact that their constitution (like the US's) is pretty hard to change.

Well their constitution is pretty much dictated by you guys and you are still technically occupying them so thats a hindrance at least...

I think there's some talk in the Japanese government about what the self defense provision means, like if it could mean preemptive self defense against an aggressive neighboring state.

>If weather reports where always saying it was going to rain tommorrow and it was sunny 20 days in a row I'd start to suspect their accuracy, yes.

Nice strawman. Would've been more confincing if you said this:

>If it said it was going to rain for 20 days in a row, but instead it snowed some days, I would question the accuracy of the reports

China's growth has continually been far higher than the USA. Stastistically it's an inevitability that China will overtake the US within a few decades at most.

Why would China go to war with another big power when it could simply compete economically and muscle into neighboring countries over time like with Tibet, enough to gain ground and assimilate over time but not frequently enough to warrant immediate foreign outrage?

Explain?

People were also predicting Trump couldn't win the nomination and then the presidency.

>people

Jews aren't people

War is fundamentally underpinned by economics. Now the US population is a quarter of China's and China's state owned enterprises accounts for 40% of the economy versus negligible for the US. At a base rate China can throw at least $8 against every $1 of the US. The same goes for troops, China could conscript 4 times as many soliders. The US would have to sport a 4:1 kd effectiveness at least to avoid attrition.

Historically this is impossible between even moderately developed nations. The Vietnam war k/d was between 1-2 in US's favor. And that's with a six fold numerical superiority and crushing air superiority.

Honestly i am shitting it when china shows their true form.

First the UK dominated then we hand over the reigns to our son. Son - how are you allowing us to be cucked by china? Do something fast or we'll show you how we ruled the waves...

The US is far from perfect but China as a superpower makes me worried. The Communist Party has some good eggs like Deng and Hu but how long will this last?

If the F-35 project has taught me anything it's that if you throw money at shit, it's still shit.

China has already overtaken the US adjusted by purchasing parity.

You're gonna get annexed within about 10 years. How does it feel?

Once those islands are finished and China has a large enough military they will start annexing countries left and right. Taiwan is first.

Source on that? Near as I can tell they're at like a fifth of the US on that.

Taiwan will be last you moron. Hong kong will be first. Taiwan has their own constitution and even army and a country 100% opposed to china. Hong kong have to by law be absorbed into china by 2047 so they have to accept it. These days hong kong is going down the shitter anyway - the smart people left for britain when the exchange happened.

>I disagree with Napoleon not because of what he says, but because he's a nationality I don't like.

So? What is bad about this?
Why should a world with China in the lead be a bad thing?

China doesn't stage a RegimeChange every 2 years in some middle east shithole and they don't have european slave states. China is way more peaceful than the USA, Europe or Russia.
It is a huge improvement if we finally have some competition to the west.

It's true

ibtimes.com/china-economy-surpasses-us-purchasing-power-americans-dont-need-worry-1701804

China is for niggers senpai. There always making memes of usa. Its the only way.

>

Why did you guys give it up?

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_China

>Implying Xi Jinping isn't the second coming of Christ

That's unlikely. China is politically right now tenuous. It's entire basis is economically improving the lives of people. If they fail at that, the CP is doomed.

Wumao, wumao everywhere.
Sick man of East Asia.

SINK
THE
CHINKS

You're thinking of gdp per capita

>ineffective princeling
Hu>>>Xi

Oh that's saying like the average Chinese can buy something like a haircut for less than it would cost an American, but the average American still has more money than the average Chinese.

Not taking into consideration china will be out of water soon and a possible revolution which is likely in the next 30 years. China is on a downward spiral

Because hong kong is practically china. Right next to it, ethnically and culturally chinese. There was a poll then in a book i read that said that hong kongers wanted to rejoin by a healthy margine.

They were fucking idiots though. Rural people wanted it. Now they are tasting chinese cock and want to come back to us. IIRC a poll showed hong kong wanted british rule back by like 90% support.

Http://www.pri.org/stories/2016-09-03/there-s-movement-turn-hong-kong-back-british-colony

Honestly its sad to see what happens but idc. They made their bed, they will lie in it.

They'll have a civil war soon enough

You keep forgetting that China, despite what the Communist party says, isn't a monolithic cultural force. They spend most of their defence dollars on suppressing internal defiance rather than focusing on external threats.

The most dangerous threat to China is Chinese people.

How come you guys didn't slaughter Gandhi ?

Basically it works like this.

You can buy 100 million haircuts in America
But in China, there are 100 million haircuts bought. So China has a higher market value in terms of the haircut market.

However, despite the haircuts being identical, in China that haircut costs the equivalent of $10, while in the USA it costs $20.

I think by the time the UK knew Gandhi was a threat it was too powerful of a force to simply kill or imprison, it would have galvanized more people to rebel.

110 million in china, not 100 million.

Basically theres more of a thing traded in China, but those same things are more "expensive" in America. So America has a higher overall GDP, but China produces more "value."

Wouldve backfired. See easter rising in ireland. All empires come to an end and being geographically far as well as culturally and socially, it was inevitable india would be independent. I mean the US won't hold for much longer, most countries change/split in 300 yrs. In the future i believe the federal government will be ignored by states like california and they will soon want to leave. Mexican immigration will cause huge problems for you too

So what? You are assuming they will be evil. There is no proof of this. China's rise has been benevolent and peaceful, and so will it's empire.

Peace under Heaven.

Couldn't they have demonized him. Napoleon wasn't a manlet but now Napoleon complex will live on for a very long time.

Wasn't Gandhi a fucking pedo?

Dunno but indians wouldnt have cared. They still have mass shitting in streets ffs. India also had a huge volunteer army to fight for us in ww2 in exchange for independence so fair enough.