Le Penn is currently leading in all the recent polling. How likely will she win?

Le Penn is currently leading in all the recent polling. How likely will she win?

Other urls found in this thread:

youtu.be/IvXO6sbiN_U
arxiv.org/pdf/1611.02015.pdf
youtube.com/watch?v=_swivbEsD50
gjopen.com/challenges/9-arab-strategy-forum-state-of-the-world-2017
gjopen.com/questions/268-which-party-s-candidate-will-win-the-next-presidential-election-in-france
gjopen.com/challenges/13-the-first-100-days
gjopen.com/questions/363-will-the-dakota-access-pipeline-begin-transporting-oil-before-january-2018
twitter.com/AnonBabble

0%.

0 she will have to lead with over 50% or all other parties will just flock together to keep the status quo where everyone of then gets money from robbing the population.

why? Are there multiple rounds?

She'll either do much better than that or lose by 2-4% in the second round.

Yes

Only rural and suburban retards support Le Pen.

Somebody explain France election s WTF are rounds

Unlike your undemocratic electoral college. the French have a true democracy with different rounds of voting.
You facist pig

Basically if the candidate that isn't supported by molloch wins you repeat the election so long until the results are in his favor. Same thing that happened in Austria.

0% pic very very related

Losers get eliminated
People that voted for the losers get to redistribute their votes on the remaining ones
Repeat until someone has a majority

Wait they can't actually do that can they? If fascists voted for fascist party I doubt they'd want it merged with the commie party and the liberal party just so they could win. This shit honestly just feels like a way to keep the status quo while pretending to be democratic.

Wasn't there a stupid system where Le Pen absolutely can't win

>current year +1
>thinking it's current year -14

You basically have the two winners of the first round go head to head in the final.

So no Mcmuffin, Jill or Gary Johnson types splitting the votes.

It also means everyone joins forces to block the outsider if they make it to the second round. So it's like if the GOP shilled Hillary to block trump.

>mélanchon
>15%
Wtf Is This timeline

she needs like 50%, the rest will just tell their people to vote against her when they lose

0 x 0%

>18% of Frogs vote for a literal nazi
are they retarded?

it's hard to say.
after the first round, the only choices will be her and fillon.
socialists won't vote for fillon as he wants to gut the public sector and FN doesn't want to.
this isn't like the last election. We'll have to wait for the small window to close after the first round of elections to get a better idea.

Why don't they just preference like we do, then it automatically runs off instead of having multiple rounds of voting?

She won't win if she doesn't win the first round straight

She did 40% in Marseille, Toulon and Avignon and 35% in Nice at the last elections

Going by those polls, she is toast in a mlp-fh second tour.

It is democracy. Democracy is mob rule.

She may win only if the opposition if from center right, if the one in the second round is the FN against a center left alternative, the center left alternative will win.

Around 10% , 30% if we have a major happenning

This. Frenchies love their Muslims.

>implying Chirac was not the best president in French history

She won't. Look, I'm sorry guys, but she won't.

There's two rounds in the presidential elections. The winner and runner-up from the first round continue to the second.

Those polls predict the result of the first round. Once she wins that one, everyone else will just band together and vote for the runner-up (Fillon or maybe Macron who is being shilled for by the media).

0%
Лягyшки, гoлocyйтe зa Фийoнa, нacтoящeгo кoнcepвaтopa!

Not sure I think it will go Liberal against socialist
So Macron vs MLP.
or Fillon vs MLP.
Maybe soialist people will vote for her since she is one...

youtu.be/IvXO6sbiN_U
Go to 1:18.

Chirac 1 - 0 Jews

L A N D S L I D E

this.

Eбyчий швeйцapeц-тpaктopиcт-двa-гoдa-нeлeгaл, ты?

C'est quoi/qui FG et EM?
Des putasses de socialistes, ou quelquechose de moins répugnant?

Overall he was average but he was so charismatic that everyone loves him

>french "democracy"

she'll never win

>Le Pen: ‘I’ll put an end to Brussels superpower’

muh Trump can't win.

0. They'll just do what they did last time to nullify her plurality.

Fillon vs Le Pen gives her the best shot, I think.

So the only people who matter then? City Dwellers are a cancer on society

Я!

>FG
Lefties, SJWs and immigrants

>EM
Center party, liberal and pro-UE

It's not even democracy, if it were mob rule the majority would win.

It's not the same m8. I wish it was, but it isn't. It's not a 2 party system.

Huh, sounds familiar

She'll win the first round for sure but won't win the election.
French elections tend to be like that, everyone votes right/FN to show that they're angry, but when it's time to vote for the real president they'll back out and pick the less extreme option

I'm betting on another 99.9% chance she loses prediction and winning anyway

Tы чe гнидa ты чe.

arxiv.org/pdf/1611.02015.pdf
yes, you're right, let's rely on randomness and software bugs to pick our leaders, nothing could go wrong

Isn't Fillon a Merkel dog? Isn't he pushing for austerity and whatever? How can a socialist ever vote for someone like that? Only because he is for open borders?

JESUS HOW MANY TIMES DO WE HAVE TO REPEAT IT ???!!! FRANCE ISN'T THE USA, THERE'S A POLITICAL ALLIANCE AGAINST LE PEN WHERE ANYONE WHO VOTED FOR THE OTHER PARTIES WILL VOTE AGAINST HER. IT WILL BE 30% LE PEN AND ~60% FOR THE OTHER GUY IN THZ FINAL ROUND.

STOP MAKING THREADS

>we're angry but we don't want to actually do anything about the problem making us angry!

Basically?

>Macron vs MLP

>when you must have either ponies or a quake2 boss as your president

He did fuck all.

>THERE'S A POLITICAL ALLIANCE AGAINST LE PEN WHERE ANYONE WHO VOTED FOR THE OTHER PARTIES WILL VOTE AGAINST HER
wrong, there's a political alliance against lepen where anyone who lost will invite his followers to vote against le pen
more and more voters are refusing to follow what they're told and will vote le pen or not vote at all

I'm not sure there are enough yet to win the 2nd round.
But it's possible she'll win.

arguably better than doing shit

Yeah. But at least she will get deputies in the Assemblée Nationale.

you guys remember trump, right?

>I'm not sure there are enough yet to win the 2nd round
Le Pen got the second round, the problem is who else will go on the second round

Wait, hold up. I've heard Jacque Chiraq somewhere before....
>youtube.com/watch?v=_swivbEsD50
I FUCKING KNEW IT
SOME KIKES, PLEASE EXPLAIN

Too true, if not the muslim lovers, the EU will pull some shit.

Zero

France is not a Democracy, voting in France is about as useful as voting in North Korea

In round 2 everyone will gang up against her to keep the status quo, she needs 50% to win, but there is too many Muslims, Africans & emotional white women for that to happen these days

Kek, the only thing he did good was not going in Iraq (however people often forget he bombed the serbs to offer the place to albanian), for the rest he was a useless president.
He made his two mandates (12 years) revolving around "reducing deaths on the roads" and "adapting infrastructures to disabled people" while the crime rate was skyrocketting and prisons were flooded with shitskins.
Also he sucked the assholes of jews and went full white guilt with muh shoah and muh slavery.

This cuck let France rot for a fucking decade just because he was more scared to confront a bunch of leftist than the fucking US government.

>This shit honestly just feels like a way to keep the status quo while pretending to be democratic.
Exactly. It's to make sure it's always a two party race and the two main opposing parties will unite to keep it that way... because in reality they aren't very different, they are both centralist parties.

It's the same thing in every MMP system

>Le Pen will never make it to the second round.
>Le Pen will never get elected.
>Le Pen will never deport the migrants.
>Le Pen will never recognize the dauphin in a crowded hall.
>Le Pen will never lead a crusade to see the one true king of France take the throne.

Where have we seen this narrative before?

Can any German, Dutch, or French fags explain to me how you can even consider yourself a democracy when your leading parties like PVV, FN, and AfD are all leading, but will lose because other parties can essentially do what amounts to ganging up on them by forming an alliance against them.
Literally fucking neck yourselves for not overthrowing your tyrants with guns right now.

Thats what Jill Stien is pushing here kinda. I forget the name of it but you get to select in order like a 1st pick 2nd pick and so on.

>he fell for the nazis are bad meme

Hamilton set up the EC so people like Trump could win

France is just a dictatorship pretending to be a Democracy

>be Hollande
>tell you'll make a proportionnal voting system for some elections
>realize FN (far right) gonna profit of that
>don't do it

>be FN
>get a gazillion vote
>get like 1 guy elected

French pat themselves about being "moderated", that's why you don't see batshit SJW and raging white guilt in France but that's why you won't ever see a Trump too.

The population tends to stick to the same model until it is too late to change things peacefully and then at this moment a conflict happens and the regime changes, that's why we went for absolute monarchy, to a parlementary democracy, to an empire to a parlementary monarchy then to a parlementary democracy again then to an empire again, then to a parlementary democracy (again !) then to a presidential democracy today.

Current paradigm in France is civil/cultural nationalism that worked quite well with european immigrants but muslims managed to exhaust the faith people had in it after just 50 years, white nationalism will come after the civil war.

THIS.

that sounds like /ˈfæʃJzəm/

>HONHONHON

jean marie tho kinda edgy is a very well spoken and funny charismatic politician unlike his shitty daughter

Batshit SJW may happen in the next years, as the US Dem party & Soros kikery takes France as its playground / emergency headquarters.

>Yet another divided country with 4-5 parties and none of them truly has a 30-40% score.

Truly makes you optimisitc for the solutions of the problems in the foreseeable future...

France is full of niggerloving, fucktarded neo-hippies who hate Trump with a passion because they were told to on TV and in their echo chamber. Potentially, France could be worse than the US with SJWs - the levels of cognitive dissonance are skyrocketing.

Get out kike

The French might be miserable people, almost lazy enough to be Spaniards. But at least when the government totally fails, they will put down their baguettes just long enough to chop the heads off of everyone involved and start over again.

Why not join the forecasters, since we are all news-junkies, and Sup Forums is always right?
gjopen.com/challenges/9-arab-strategy-forum-state-of-the-world-2017

So everyone is in this echo chamber but you? You do realise this is exactly how populists want you to feel, right? That they're in a bubble but you live in reality.

gjopen.com/questions/268-which-party-s-candidate-will-win-the-next-presidential-election-in-france

she has good chances of going to the second round. But she will be defeated 60-40 in the second for sure

A Trump-special:
gjopen.com/challenges/13-the-first-100-days

your funeral

Я eбaл тeбя и твoю мaть

You know, in civilized countries, the plurality leader forms the government along with whatever minority parties it chooses in a coalition.

Don't get confident user remember hillary was leading the polls to and she lost horribly

French circles

And personally, my biggest interest:
gjopen.com/questions/363-will-the-dakota-access-pipeline-begin-transporting-oil-before-january-2018

>polling
Let's keep our shirts on. What are betting odds?

Things changed a lot with the new corruption case of Fillon

82.1% voted for death of their nation at the hand of jews

Could someone potentially win a majority in the first round, meaning no more would be necessary?
I mean there's almost no way that will happen with the national front (baguette edition) but I'm just trying to understand how the system works.

>Could someone potentially win a majority in the first round, meaning no more would be necessary?
Yes, but it's very unlikely.
>'m just trying to understand how the system works.
The system is pretty simple. To be elected, you have to get the majority of the voters.