Trump's trial balloon for a coup d'état

> Analyzing the news of the past 24 hours
LINK : medium.com/@yonatanzunger/trial-balloon-for-a-coup-e024990891d5

Other urls found in this thread:

reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-immigration-courts-idUSKBN15D0XG
youtube.com/watch?v=m6VEt7_ur64
twitter.com/SFWRedditVideos

Nope, military's one of the few groups actually happy about what's being done.

that's the point, duh

TRUMP will be giving the coup

>TFW he actually declares himself emperor

>Already in power
>Coup

what?

Heads have rolled at the State Department.

sure why not

Seizing the legislative and judicature to complement his executive power.

Trump already atcs like he's Emperor.
> U.S. judges limit Trump immigration order ; some Trump officials ignore rulings
LINK : reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-immigration-courts-idUSKBN15D0XG

What's you going to do, terminate the shadow government?

>It's a coup! Trump's not employing people who want him impeached!

>Trump doesn't take the advice of the CIA when they say he's a Russian agent, he's very unprofessional!

But he basically already controls the legislative branch, and the judiciary will be conservative majority once he makes his SC appointment.

If he's not a complete idiot, he should be making preparations for a full-blown coup.

>he basically already controls the legislative branch
The Republican party is full of scum and the overwhelming majority of its congressman need to be executed. They aren't trustworthy and their loyalty is to their donors, not the country or the president.
>judiciary will be conservative majority
The Supreme Court will be. The lower courts are brimful of nigger communists, sayanim, ragheads, neo-cons, Mexican subversives, the whole nine yards.

The country needs to be completely purged if it is to survive.

That's not how the Washington system works.

In the Westminster system the Prime Minister is the party leader and sets the cabinet agenda. He has to negotiate with cabinet, sure, but he stacks the cabinet because he's the party leader. Backbenchers aren't relevant because of the party discipline system, where they virtually always vote for their party's legislation. The Prime Minister effectively controls the entire legislature (because the Prime Minister is always in government), and all negotiation is done inside the party. Bipartisanship is only needed in the event of a hostile senate or a hung parliament, and even then a few of the minor parties are usually enough.

In the Washington system the President is usually NOT the leader of his party. Nor do they have party discipline. What this means is a Republican congress does not have its agenda set by the President, and even if it did the Republican "backbenchers" can (and do) vote against the President's legislation (and Democrats can vote for it without the consent of the Democratic leaders). So the President has to negotiate with everyone. To do this he needs the support of the actual party leaders who have the connections to the backbenchers needed to get them on side. In short, the President's legislative power is extremely limited. The system is designed this way, of course, because the President is part of the executive power and theoretically should have no legislative power at all.

The judicature is totally independent and does whatever the fuck it wants in both systems. Trump nominates someone, but that doesn't mean they'll do what he wants if they don't want to. Same goes for the Westminster system.

In short Trump's ability to dictate law is very slim and control its interpretation is nonexistent. A coup de etat would be the erasure of this separation of powers by seizing control of the legislature and sidelining the Supreme Court. Real dictator shit.

Any of those line up with these guys?

Furthermore, everybody in the party hates the Trump administration. It's going to leak like a fucking sieve, and the second he slips up he will be sidelined (if not outright impeached) by the party himself, white-handled to irrelevance where he passes his time making irrelevant executive orders and crying in public like Obama did because congress refuses to give him money for things.

The goal for the republicans now is to be so obstructive and obnoxious, and disloyal, to put pressure on Trump that he can't handle. Meanwhile, they wait for Trump to slip up. Some aspect of his business will cause something that looks like a conflict of interest, and nobody can survive that if they're party isn't 100% behind them. Trump's image will collapse and he will be out on his arse in 4 years remembered as a corrupt oligarch with Republicans struggling to keep his shit off their suits.

The best case scenario is for Trump to seize control of the Republican party and build for himself in a year what has taken others entire political careers, so that he can be both the President and one of the faceless factional leaders pulling republican congress strings. I find it unlikely. More probably he will pursue a path of outrageous policies until republicans get sick of him and cut off the money tap and leave him to play in his office.

Such is life.

Maybe. But the chart with the names crossed out shows 16 boxes survived, and 35 did not (give or take). That's like 2 out of 3 got axed. The carnage is like Game of Thrones.

>such is life
-Trump's not a serious candidate
-Trump will be out by October
-Trump will never win a single primary
-Trump has a ceiling of 25%
-Trump has a ceiling of 30%
-Trump has a ceiling of 35%
-Trump has a ceiling of 45%
-Trump will never win the south
-Trump can't win with evangelicals
-Trump will never be accepted by the party
-Trump will never be the nominee
-Trump will never win the general
-Trump can't really build a wall

Is this copypasta entitled "Wishful thinking"? It'd be fitting.

You have no idea how Trump works, or how the American people work.

You got the technical stuff down, but the entire point of the campaign was to solve the problem of a lame duck president. The press and the Democrats both have worked together for as long as they have known each other to brand the Republicans as obstructive while ramming what they wanted down the throats of the American people.

You claim that the GOP will obstruct Trump as if that is somehow going to help them get reelected when in fact this is fucking Trump, the person who has gone around the media and spoken directly to the people, and loudly. Anyone with the audacity to even try to deliberately obstruct Trump from doing the things he promised to do will receive a public lashing from Trump himself and his administration in a media environment where obstructionists are reviled like a cancer. They would become politically toxic overnight.

I wish I was that delusional.

Nobody rules alone. The effectiveness of any official is merely a product of the people under him - their ability, and their will. Trump has to build an able and willing political infrastructure to implement his legislative agenda out of whole cloth. He can't just inherit the existing one. Rather, he CAN just inherit the existing one so long as he can stop pissing them off. From the looks of what he's doing now, that seems unlikely.

Trump can't achieve anything significant without money, and that money flows from congress. If key republican factional leaders decide to block new spending by Trump, and enough of their congressional underlings are pliable, then Trump won't be able to pay for his promises.

Trump will learn quickly that we campaign in poetry but govern in prose.

Why the fuck would the GOP torpedo their first chance at full control over the federal government for 2, likely 4, years?

>l-look guys we dumped Drumpf
>w-why are our base voting for anyone else and the liberals still voting Democrat and laughing at us?

What will happen is that Trump fulfills all his campaign promises to some degree, the GOP floats a tax/welfare policy that assists the white middle class in getting jobs and Trump passes whatever the GOP wants in the way of budgets and Christcuck nonsense.

McCain and Graham are told to shut the hell up and the party holds together until they get the feeling they could get smashed at an election. This won't be the 2018 midterms because they know this opportunity (20+ Democrat seats available) can't be wasted.

Uhh guys.. memes are funny and all but.. are they right?

That's the 7th floor (((shadow government))) purged of course.

Where can I sign up to help with the purges?

>Trump will learn quickly that we campaign in poetry but govern in prose.
I hope you tipped your fedora for that one. Your world is nice and all, I'm sure someone like Romney would think you're really smart. You don't really understand that blocking Trump means pissing off over half of the Republican constituency and kissing your seat goodbye when they fail to show up for you. I hope these GOP saints will find it in their hearts to do so. After all, it's for the good of the nation that they govern and not just to keep their ass in the cozy seat.

>Anyone with the audacity to even try to deliberately obstruct Trump from doing the things he promised to do will receive a public lashing from Trump himself and his administration in a media environment where obstructionists are reviled like a cancer.
You really expect the headlines to be "RANDOM REPUBLICAN YOU'VE NEVER HEARD OF WHO PULLS THE STRINGS BEHIND THE SCENES BLOCKS TRUMP'S AGENDA" rather than "TRUMP FAILS TO GET BILL THROUGH CONGRESS?"

Now THAT is wishful thinking. Who are the "obstructionists" going to be when it's congress itself doing the obstructing? You think that the media reports on the quasi-secret, totally unofficial factional games that go on in the halls of power? All the media is going to say is "republicans revolt!" and with Trump's approval rating at the mid-30s nobody far fewer people will be reviling them than you think.

>Why the fuck would the GOP torpedo their first chance at full control over the federal government for 2, likely 4, years?
Same reason the Liberals stabbed Tony. Trump's approval rating has already tanked to the mid-30s, meaning he's lost the support of nearly half of the people who elected him. With more elections coming up the republicans are going to see that the winning strategy for other people is to distance themselves from Trump entirely. Trump himself will become toxic to the republicans, not the other way around.

That's one possibility, anyway.

>but those approval polls are biased
So? The republicans believe them, and that's all that matters.

This seems correct

*Trumperor

>Republicans believe polls
>after the election debacle
Australia, you're doing the shitpost thing again.

>You think that the media reports on the quasi-secret, totally unofficial factional games that go on in the halls of power?
You still think Trump's base gets their news from the media? Once someone steps out of line they'll hear all about it right from the horse's mouth and this particular horse is loud and not shy about hitting back.

Most of his base listens to Rush, and he does an excellent job at breaking down the media's narrative. AJ too fwiw. And other places. That's what the failed fake news debacle was all about. Trump supporters aren't getting their narrative from the (((MSM)))

>Same reason the Liberals stabbed Tony
You have no concept of how the US system works, do you?

The fact you're shilling the worst of the polls and ignoring Rasmussen (55% approval) means you're a shill.

>He cant negotiate the release of Half Life 3
Hold up I didnt read this in his Plans

you missed the part where the legislature needs trump to sign their paychecks and all their pork barrel legislation for their own states.

its a media myth that the republicans are "le conspiring" against Trump. its been 3 people that have even been passively vocal about Trump in the Republican party that have any power or sway in Washington.

McCain
McConnell
Graham

and guess what? Nobody likes them. They are the three neocohens left standing and everyone, including people in their state are increasingly wondering how they keep getting re-elected.

Having his people ignore judicial rulings is kind of a big deal, especially if the marshals start trying to arrest people for contempt of court and federal agents resist.

> With more elections coming up the republicans are going to see that the winning strategy for other people is to distance themselves from Trump entirely.
At a secret meeting, top Republican legislators worried about repealing Obamacare for this very reason. My prediction is that Obamacare will not be repealed, but that Trump will try to sabotage it somehow by Executive Orders or some other coup-like power grabs by the Executive Office.

Is backbencher drunk Australian talk for whip?

I don't think Trump is in as bad a spot as you claim. Any congressman that stands against him will face his wrath in the midterms. Trump could easily get them primaried out of a seat, Obama already set the precedent for a president campaigning for candidates.

Even if Trump is impeached, it doesn't mean he would go away. He still has his loyal supporters and he can get them to wreck havok on any GOP congressmen that supports the impeachment.

>and guess what? Nobody likes them.

McCain just got re-elected.

>blocking Trump means pissing off over half of the Republican constituency
We'll see what happens in 6 months. It all depends on how Trump performs. But he's already lost at least 40% of the support he had, as his approval drops to 30%.

>nobody will ever believe polls ever again, not EVER, especially not politicians, whose careers live and die on polls
No, you're shitposting.

>You still think Trump's base gets their news from the media?
You actually think Trump's base is alt-right r/the_donald faggots and not poorfag whites in the heartland? Yes, I think - accurately - that Trump's REAL base, the one that actually won him the election, gets their news from the media.

>You have no concept of how the US system works, do you?
Not an argument.

>you missed the part where the legislature needs trump to sign their paychecks and all their pork barrel legislation for their own states
Vetoing that shit is only going to make them hate him more, desu. If you go all stick you're only going to get stick back, and the Presidential office is literally designed to lose that fight. Trump doesn't have the legal power to make congress kowtow. Hence why he needs to sidebar the judicature.

>My prediction is that Obamacare will not be repealed, but that Trump will try to sabotage it somehow by Executive Orders or some other coup-like power grabs by the Executive Office.
I think that Trump's alternative to Obamacare will have pretty much the same implementation as Obamacare itself - a butchered hack-job that fails to make meaningful improvements due to political fuckery. If Trump pursues his healthcare reform before his political rejuvenation it can't end any other way.

I still don't understand this. I honestly blame boomers.

And they're rabid too. Now that they put Trump in and he's signaled that he actually wants to follow through, his supporters will be on the lookout of how they can harm anyone who tries to block it. The protests (made up of people Trump supporters absolutely hate) are only making them more anxious to start clamping down on dissent within their own ranks. Once a populist like Trump manages to latch himself onto power it's exceedingly difficult to impede him, people who are just used to politics-as-usual haven't experienced it before but being on the opposite side of a populist in power really fucking sucks. Your own side starts to radicalize in response which leads to a hefty divide and it becomes almost impossible to get rid of the guy. I happen to agree with Trump's brand of populism so I don't much mind it now but I've been on the opposing side of populism before and it's a real nightmare. Democrats are still in complete denial about how much trouble this whole thing is going to cause them.

once that generation dies, 30+ year senator/congress terms should hopefully be a thing of the past.

If you mean whip as in "people who make party members do what they're told" then no. A backbencher in Australia is someone who doesn't hold a cabinet office but does have a seat in parliament. They're basically just there to fill seats and have no actual power unless they move en masse. Consider them more like the party's electorate than an actual part of the legislature. If enough backbenchers are from the right-wing faction then the party leader (who is elected by sitting members of parliament) will end up being a right wing leader - but outside of that backbenchers can't really do anything. They basically have to vote for whatever the party tells them to vote for or their political career is over.

>Any congressman that stands against him will face his wrath in the midterms. Trump could easily get them primaried out of a seat
It really depends which seat. Trump's base is loyal but it's also pretty spread out, and its majority could be thinner than we think, especially in a few months time.

Trump could be a huge political force if he can play the party politics right. It all depends on how quickly he can grasp the republican inner working and start putting his own people in power.

I was starting to doubt what kind of a president Trump was going to be but this article just quells my concerns. It just reads like more 7d chess notation. Regarding their point that he is instigating a coup, they are just retarded. He argues that if the DHS disregards a court order that is an indication of a seizure of judicial power. It is not. The DHS does not take their orders from a court. They take them solely from the executive branch, headed by Trump. It is not their job to evaluate the legality of the orders given to them. THEN if a court decides that the agency has violated the law they can take action. Acting like a DHS bureaucrat is supposed to refuse an order because it may violate a court order is absurd. There are probably an immense number of federal court orders in effect right now, likely thousands.

>he's already lost half of his support
Stop believing bullshit you retard he's only gaining support

They feel important now because we only control the senate 52-48. It's basically the neocohen's last gasp of relevancy before they are no longer needed. With the 2018 midterms we have the potential of introducing a lot of nationalist orientated GOP senators from the midwestern states.

Nah, that would require people to not reflexively vote for the incumbent or whoever has more name recognition. Everyone hates congress but few hate their own congressmen.

They'll probably lose the house in 2018, though.

Date on that article? I guarantee you it's a few days late.

>Yes, I think - accurately - that Trump's REAL base, the one that actually won him the election, gets their news from the media.
So they think he's literally Hitler and still voted for him? Australia, I implore you to stop shitposting.

>Yes, I think - accurately - that Trump's REAL base, the one that actually won him the election, gets their news from the media.
Oh, you meant the politicians? They're stupid enough that they might believe them a little. Which means they'll know that over half their base is pro-Trump and Trump will make sure they have a taste of how fanatical his supporters are. Try winning an election when half your base is loyal to a guy that hates your guts. Your assertion is that they'll throw away their seats and sink the Republican party for a couple of election for their principles. I've seen firsthand people doing exactly the opposite and bending the knee to the loudmouth populist while trying to paint themselves as more moderate than him to keep their cushy seat. We'll see how it shakes out, maybe you're right and True Conservative Values™ will win the day. I doubt it very much.

why would they lose the house?

though they will probably get raped in 2020 - Trump will be Obama'd in his 2nd term

>Who are the "obstructionists" going to be when it's congress itself doing the obstructing?

Congress you fucking dumbass. You have no fucking clue how American politics work, do you? Any "republicans revolt" headline will be preceded by a bunch of GOP congressmen tanking in approval and Trump tweeting angrily at them that he is still waiting for that bill to sign.

Probably the military.

Day of emu coming soon straya.

*leans into mic*

WRONG

The federal judge's injunction was a fucking joke and that's why DHS and TSA are ignoring it.

You don't get to legislate as a judge, and your reasoning can't simply be "I don't like it!"

Trump would need to pull a Bush and invade Iran to lose the House, I don't think that will happen within 2 years.

Dems are likely going to lose 22 seats in Congress.

>if they voted for Trump that means they're part of his hardcore rabid base
This assumption will get you killed if you're a Republican.

>Your assertion is that they'll throw away their seats and sink the Republican party for a couple of election for their principles.
Wrong. My assertion is that not every republican who voted for Trump is a committed, card-carrying, always-votes-republican-no-matter-what, my-President-right-or-wrong caricature of some delusional wishful thinking armchair political commentator from Portugal.

The electorate is full capable of, and may well be in the process of, dumping Trump. Presidents can and often do spend more time being unpopular than being popular, and the more boldly Trump acts the more he risks that. The life of a courageous politician is often short - courageous policies require party backing, and Trump needs to secure that fast before he loses his chance forever.

>Trump tweeting angrily at them that he is still waiting for that bill to sign.
Trump is going to personally tweet the potentially hundreds of congressman who vote against his legislation? Sounds time consuming.

For Trump's legislation to pass it needs congressmen to support it, and those congressmen will do what the whips tell them to do. The whips enforce what their factional leaders tell them to enforce, and their factional leaders take their cues partly from their base and partly from the party heads (and, perhaps, occasionally, from their principles. Maybe). If popular sentiment influenced congress even one bit the fucking 81% disapproval rating would have some impact but it doesn't. Nobody cares.

What if Trump realizes he's old and on the way out and he's been handed the one opportunity to create a true lasting legacy. I don't mean be some president a generation who didn't live under will never know or care about. I mean someone who at least TRIES to overthrow the democracy. God forbid if he tries and fails, the only out will be destroying our countries with shitskins and then trying to rebuild.

But if he succeeds?

why would you bother with 19% of an oil company if you're gonna take over the united states?

5-10 years before he has to retire due to health reasons anyway. It'd be a short dictatorship.

Passed on to his sons, which is fine. Democracy is a joke and a failure. End it.

Exact same day CNN said his poll was 30%

Fair enough.

I'm off to sleep.

youtube.com/watch?v=m6VEt7_ur64

btw the coup happened last year

>if they voted for Trump that means they're part of his hardcore rabid base
Oh, but I didn't say that. You keep swinging at strawmen with full force. I said that over half of a Republican's constituency is fully on Trump's camp. Recent polls (since, like you said, politicians like them so much) give Trump at the very least 36% of people (the most generous and which predicted the election more accurately says 57%) who are happy with how he's going about things. "How he's going about things" being very aggressively pursuing his most divisive campaign promises. Those are Trumpers, ignoring them will get you out of your cushy seat. Or "killed" if you prefer to be a drama queen about it.

>Wrong. My assertion is that not every republican who voted for Trump is a committed, card-carrying, always-votes-republican-no-matter-what, my-President-right-or-wrong caricature of some delusional wishful thinking armchair political commentator from Portugal.
I never said otherwise, Mr. delusional wishful thinking armchair political commentator from Australia. See above.

To make matters clear, that's 36% of everyone by the worst of the worst estimates. 57% of everyone by the best. So imagine how much that'll be in Republican circles alone, impossible to win after you piss them off. And these people aren't just going "Meh, I guess." If you're still supporting Trump by now that he effectively crossed the Rubicon, you're gonna be supporting Trump until he ends his term or something absolutely massive happens. Now the Dems radicalize to oppose. No side can win without appealing to their extremist faction, positions crystallize. People who break ranks will be massively penalized. It's nothing new, it's all happened before. When politics-as-usual breaks down things get a lot more tribal.

Night night aussie friend

Don't listen to this guy i'm ashamed to even share a flag with him, he doesn't represent aussies.

He doesn't know shit about the system and he doesn't know shit about what's going on. Here is the proof of that:

>Furthermore, everybody in the party hates the Trump administration.

this should speak for itself. he's just regurgitating what articles have told him the same way all the losers who lose the election and acted surprised did.

theres more:

>The goal for the republicans now is to be so obstructive and obnoxious

this only works if you truly believe there is a conspiracy where almost all of the republicans just want the democrats to be in power and never want to be elected again.

there's more:

>omg the polls are real
no they're not, idiot. lol. even my mum knows and her neighbours neighbours know this.

>if the polls arent real the republicans still believe them!
no. but even if they did they would still have no reason to throw themselves under the bus.

I don't even know why this guy bothered to post do much. He's not from your country and demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of the situation.

let's be honest, he probably thought hillary had no chance of losing.

she did lose man, fairly, even after she cheated.

just leave and stop making australians seem like idiots mate.

Love it.

>Ministry of state
What did the FSB mean by this? Also pls contact me for a shill position I need a job.