Cali Oroville Dam collapse thread 12 - We Scientists Now Edition

Pic is readings from the sensors here:

cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?s=ORO&d=13-Feb-2017 01:54&span=25hours

What information can we glean from this (loaded) representation?

Other urls found in this thread:

youtu.be/O5oL6zHJxpU
youtube.com/watch?v=JxbDJlruQ-4
youtube.com/watch?v=NanEPQYZ5XU
livestream.com/KRCR/events/3724366
parks.ca.gov/?page_id=29411
broadcastify.com/listen/feed/1929/web
youtube.com/results?search_query=oroville dam
cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?s=ORO&d=13-Feb-2017 01:54&span=25hours
youtube.com/watch?v=Z5OIcb4Uh4U
latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-oroville-update-20170212-story.html
twitter.com/NSFWRedditVideo

nice axis labels jamal

Dam engineers are going balls-to-the-wall on the emergency spillway to prepare for forecasted rain?

The current inflow rate does not necessitate the emergency spillway procedure currently in progress.

Why are they running the spillway so heavily that it is literally tearing it apart?

That it will hopefully fail in the most catastrophic way possible if Kek wills it.

The polls were wrong last time, just like the projections will be wrong this time.

Units are available in the link provided. I used excel and don't know how to have multiple Y axes with different units and different min-max windows.

That the dam is fucked, especially when one takes into account of the rain that's supposed to show up around Wednesday.

From what I gathered, they intend to drain enough water to account for the incoming rainstorm and to allow for at least an attempt at making temporary repairs. Odds are though they're not going to succeed.

I AM NOT A SCIENTIST.
MY OPINION IS NOT BASED IN EXPERTISE OR FACT.
DO NOT RELY ON THIS INFORMATION FOR ANY PURPOSE.

The ground became saturated by February 6.

Thereafter, the water level in the reservoir (blue) tracks along with accumulated rainfall (purple). There is a lag between start of rainfall and an uptick in inflows (orange).

So long as inflows remain below the maximum emergency outflow rate, the TV newsmen have told us that all is well.

Unless the emergency spillway dam breaks because they're running it so hard.

Why are they running it so hard when inflows are well below 100,000 CFS (red dotted line)?

Threadtheme for german language bros

youtu.be/O5oL6zHJxpU

>The current inflow rate does not necessitate the emergency spillway procedure currently in progress.
The emergency spillway is at 900 feet, if the lake reaches that level, it will overflow. There's no way to stop that besides preventing the water from reaching that level. And that's why they're running the main spillway so heavily.

In my NON EXPERT interpretation, we would need to see rainfall of 2 inches in order for inflows to hit 100,000 CFS.

Forecasted rainfalls in excess of 2 inches in a short period of time would necessitate draining the dam RIGHT THE FUCK NOW.

My bad.

The spillway with the big runway in front of it is the main spillway, correct?

Don't they have control over the outflow rate?

>Dam engineers are going balls-to-the-wall on the emergency spillway to prepare for forecasted rain?
Sounds like it. Hopefully the break will give them a chance to do something more effective than drop boulders from helicopters on it. Also they have a chance to actually fucking LOOK at it now, and see how bad the erosion really is.

But personally I think they should focus on the main spillway for now. Despite the massive gap in the lining, it's still considerably further away from total collapse. Half a hillside of lining is better than no lining at all. Plus, the main spillway is only running at less than half of it's maximum rating right now. They should be able to avoid using the emergency spillway again altogether, and probably should.
>Why are they running the spillway so heavily that it is literally tearing it apart?
Water has to go somewhere, and right now the main spillway is the way LEAST likely to cause a catastrophic failure.

The dem has about 20 feet of space left before it overflows, there isn't enough rainfall for that, even if there isn't any outflow.

>there isn't enough rainfall for that.

What about all the snow melting into the rivers?

But the spillway is eroding fast and could fail. The point is, they're running it too hard (harder than ever before), and that is what may cause a failure. Says sources.

Serb, it was overflowing today. Thats what the emergency spillway next to the fucked up main spillway is for. When the overflow hit, it started dumping water over the emergency spillway and it immediately began fucking up the slope it was built on top of. Had they not opened the main severely damaged spillway pretty much full bore, the overflow would have eroded enough of the hill to open up the reservoir.

The rivers leading up tp there are pretty long and Oroville itself is forecasted to get about 1600 liters per square meter of rain on wednesday night, I don't really know how to calculate all the water the affluent rivers are going to get

>The spillway with the big runway in front of it is the main spillway, correct?
Yes.

>Don't they have control over the outflow rate?
Yes they do.

They could stop the outflow. But then the emergency spillway (this is basically just a dirt hill with a concrete lip) will overflow. They can't control that, if the lake hits 900ft, the water runs down there. The water level just now dropped below that level.
The problem is that this causes erosion to the hill which structurally supports the dam and could cause the dam to break.
Same goes for the main spillway. The water running down there also causes erosion, which will basically eat up the concrete runway from the bottom until it reaches the dam. When that happens, this could also lead to a catastrophic event at the overflow gates.

Apparently the engineers decided that the danger from the main spillway erosion is less bad than the emergency spillway, which is why they are using it so heavily. Also to prepare for the rainfall later this week.

Cant they just blow up another emergency spill way ?

Amerijuan, my point still stands.

1. Look at the anticipated rainfall,
2, Look at the space left in the dem.

It's not rocket science.

>Anticipated rainfall
You better have taken into account the rainfall on every water body that flows there in consideration.

Is there anything I can do to help speed up the flooding/dam failure? And is there any way to increase the scale of the problem to effect 80-100% of the state? I'll be glad to pitch in any way I can.

Based germanbro.

The engineers said they expect the main spillway to erode to bedrock. Wondering how deep that is in relation to the eroded pit's distance to the reservoir wall. As in, what will the geometry of the leftover dirt look like?

We need to channel some autism towards obtaining geologic maps of the bedrock depth etc.

>2, Look at the space left in the dem.
The main dam is not going to break. The danger is in the emergency spillway. If it overflows too heavily, the erosion will eat up the hill beneath and undermine that structure.

boil water

he has no idea what the spillway even is, he's literally only talking about the dam wall at the top of the dam not where the overflow was happening

The OP link has rainfall data per hour measured by satellite.

If anyone can correlate that to histofocal rainfall data from, say, weatherunderground, then we can look at forecasted rainfall in the correlated area to predict the rainfall that will end up in the dam.

I'm sure the engineers are ruining a billion dollar structure, risk destroying 12 000 homes and losing a power plant just for fun

This is a live news stream, don't know if its just looping old stuff or not.
>youtube.com/watch?v=JxbDJlruQ-4

Shit quality but this appears to be a live stream
>youtube.com/watch?v=NanEPQYZ5XU

American engineerist expert here, the dam may actually become faulty do to heavy flooding and excessive stress on the anterior portion of the dam. Since a lot stress is forming on the primitative structure that was designed badly, this will result in a cautostrophic water event that can occur any engineerial second now.

My best advice would be to evacuate the area immediately, anyone whom stays can advice will die. Please stay safe.

I'm watching this
livestream.com/KRCR/events/3724366
It's supposed to be live

this webm was recorded 10am on the 12th

>engineerial second
I'm sad this isn't an actual term according to Google

What is your native language

some pasta i cooked up.

Local News Station Stream:
livestream.com/KRCR/events/3724366

Lake Oroville Webcam -- livestream
parks.ca.gov/?page_id=29411

Scanner Traffic Stream -- Butte County Sheriff, Cal Fire, Chico & Paradise Police / Fire - Live Audio
broadcastify.com/listen/feed/1929/web

Raw dam sensor data and video links at the end of the post.

TLDR - unexpected erosion at the base of the dam's emergency overflow spillway could lead to collapse of that portion of the project, leading to catastrophic flooding in oroville, california.

A Quck Rundown:
>tons of rain this year in northern california
>coming out of a long drought
>officials didn't want to dump the water in the reservoir.
>more rain forces them to use their spillway (first time in decades)
>a poor repair from previous damage fails last week
>damage is getting worse and worse, eating into the hillside that is structurally integral to the dam itself
>they let the reservoir fill to the emergency spillway levels and it goes over
>more rain. water floods a parking lot next to the emergency spillway
>spills over a road, and the emergency spillway is now experiencing erosion at its foundation
>reopen the overflow spillway (the damaged one) to bring leves below the emergency spillway level to prevent structural failure of the emergency spillway.
>the emergency spillway is the threat, not the dam
>if that collapses, about 20-40' (~7-12m) of water pours into the river valley above oroville
>that further erodes the hill maybe towards the dam.

Footage of the Devastation:
youtube.com/results?search_query=oroville dam

Raw Dam Sensor Data:
cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?s=ORO&d=13-Feb-2017 01:54&span=25hours

What does this mean for the common citizen of Kekistan?

Summon kek

check back wednesday night. eight straight days of rain is forecast beginning wednesday evening.

It's not live, it says "replay" in the upper left corner. And indeed, it's the middle of the night right now in the US. The videos of the dam can't possibly be live, it would be just dark.

Right now we can only wait until the sun rises to look at the erosion damage to the spillway.

Commifornia is dun goofed

check'em

goof confirmed

>American engineerist expert here
Do you build structures out of burgers

God damn it, skipping the morning coffee was a mistake.

take a piss outside but be on the look out for cops

That last link is not best suited for copypasta due to the timestamp in the query string

The emergency spillway is like the lip of the toilet bowl. It's like someone flushed a clogged toilet and you're just hoping the water doesn't go over cause you'll get poop water everywhere.

>>

This one is dark, probably live.
But shit quality and can't really see anything.
youtube.com/watch?v=NanEPQYZ5XU

if digits based dam will rek cuckedfornia

I hope it breaks

helicopter footage at dusk

youtube.com/watch?v=Z5OIcb4Uh4U

are you insulting my cooking?

that's cnn-grade news

yes mates good goy, californa big water go bye bye now they need to ark to get then safe of the ppls JKUNG JUNGY CANTOR

Flush your toilet 5 times

How bad is it on a scale of 1 to 10?

Only the short-bus state of California, can suffer BOTH a drought AND flooding at the same time. Autism level: EXPERT!

>112420375
This must be one of those bots I was hearing about.

ACTUALY EXPERT HERE

we kangs now
the wota mite be tunneling from cHYINAs into the usA or porsiblry form NORTH KORAN

get the ready OK time GO!@!@!@!

niagra falls / 10

yo mom ass

No he's just strayan. Lurk more.

checked and adjusted the recipe.
hit the "latest" link at the bottom of the results on that page.

>implying

There's this webcam feed
youtube.com/watch?v=NanEPQYZ5XU

inflow sensors aren't working

I know about aussies, but there is a bot with an aussie flag posting inane shit so I figured it may be one. If it is a real aussie, I hope he gets better at shitposting.

So much pressure they broke. I wouldn't want to be anywhere near that site.

Happening incoming, Praise kek

>the last two numbers showed a considerable rise

Will there be more rainfall for this area?

According to wikipedia, the reservoir has a surface area of 688,466,000 feet. Therefore, if the emergency spillway wall fails catastrophically, almost 7 billion cubic feet of water will be released for every 10 feet of wall height that is breached.

The outflows have been 100,000 cubic feet per second for the past several hours

Say 20 feet of retaining wall height is breached all of the sudden. At a 100,000 CFS rate, this would take 39 hours to drain through the 20 foot hole.

If it takes 2 hours to drain, we would be looking at 10 times the volume of water currently flooding out of the two spillways.

>surface area of 688,466,000 feet.

>area
>in feet

Hopefully this fails completely and trashes liberal Sacramento as well as the Trump-voting regions in danger now

*square feet

>is that flag even a country?

something like 16 miles squared ?

ice cream sandwich!!!

praise kek and brace yourselves
good luck brothers

I fukken googled it m8
>LATVIA
HOOLY SHIT HOW YOU LIKE THEM WORLD JUNIORS BUD

I just read that dam operators plan to drop water levels by 50 FEET before next rain storm. Where's all that water going to go ?

> But a new storm system forecast for later this week put water officials on a race against time. Bill Croyle, the acting director of the state Department of Water Resources, said they planned to continue discharging flows at a rate of 100,000 cubic feet per second, with the hope of lowering the reservoir level by 50 feet.
LINK : latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-oroville-update-20170212-story.html

Yes, and we like to play hockey as you already discovered.

we are almost as nice as Austria in some things.

Anyway, hope the dam goes to hell.

>kek

The emergency spillway is literally tearing itself apart.

shiiiiieeeeeeeeet.

>with the hope of lowering the reservoir level by 50 feet
That's bullshit. At the current rate of 100k they are lowering the level by 8ft in a day. They have 3 days until the next storm hits.

To Orville's downtown


Topkek

Kek if you will it,
happen

there isn't enough time for that. that figure may have included the power house outflow, which had to be shut down due to it getting clogged up with debris.

no
the emergency spillway is fine
the main spillway, however, is fucked. eroded to shit

So what exactly caused this and why did no one know about it before?

inb4 because it's California

Aside from that, is there any reason?

Underrated post

Eat shit slanty canada!

the water went around the end of the emergency spillway last night, it's why they cranked the spillway open. the erosion was getting towards the emergency spillway's foundation.

so what happens if the main spillway gets fucked?

what's going to happen here? is the dam going to break?

The biggest assumption being made here is that the infrastructure of the spillways will actually hold up for the dam's water levels to be safely dropped by 50 feet. How much more erosion can the spillways take in the mean time ?
> Holy fuck !!!

look at the map, bro

it goes into two tiny rivers with like a couple small secondary dams. overspill would hit oroville for sure, but alot of the pressure would be relieved by that basin SW of the town. then the rest would keep moving south, overspilling into fields/orchards that are adjacent as it goes.

>engineers second
What's the about, like 5 planck lengths?

First you need to buy a plane and a little dog named Nigger.

>California threatens CalExit out of butthurt because their illegals voting didn't sway the election
>gets destroyed by floods after a decade-long drought and goes bankrupt

Trump curse strikes again

>if Kek wills it
roll proper digits

yeah shown there is less than half of what's going on now

Emergency center is located at;

>xx east yolo street

heh

go munging