Could some Frenchanon tell me something about her chances to win the presidency elections?
Also please explain your voting system. Does your winning party (most votes) usually has to build coalitions with other parties to get over 50% and build a government?
Because that's usual in germany, thus the AfD has zero chance.
Other urls found in this thread:
en.wikipedia.org
en.wikipedia.org
youtube.com
spectator.co.uk
en.wikipedia.org
twitter.com
en.wikipedia.org
en.wikipedia.org
Impossible to know who will win now, there's a new shitstorm every week...
She has zero chance to win in the second round. She will never get 50% of votes.
>Could some Frenchanon tell me something about her chances to win the presidency elections?
First round: 90%
Second round: 0%
Also, this:
youtube.com
ballotage will be against macron right?
She was likely going to face off against center right candidate fillon in the second round and get destroyed but from what I understand due to the corruption allegations the center left candidate macron is now likely to face off against her. She would lose slightly less badly against macron but I think I heard somewhere that wiki leaks has dirt on Macron's party
What the fuck is even up with your Republicans?
Fillon seemed like he was set to win and now everything's tumbling down and you'll mostlikely get Macron
Scandal
Fillon and Le Pen are done. Macron will be the next French president.
A shame.
Fillon actually looked like a good pick
Here's a French History professor's explanation of France's current political system, and why their unusual electoral system makes her victory unlikely.
spectator.co.uk
this, unless something extraordinary happens she has no chance
>Macron will be the next French president.
0% chance.
Who else is it gonna be?
If it's Le Pen vs anyone from the left, it will be Le Pen.
>Frencucks believing
in jew media
What you retards are doing on Sup Forums?
More like:
First Round: 100%
Second round: 5%
She could win the second round only if there is a wave of mudslimes killings in the weeks before, or if the other candidate for the round gets assblasted by some huge scandal.
this
if she makes it to the second round the other candidate has a guaranteed victory.
Don Fillon will win.
Le Pen is hotter than le pan.
Perhaps, but she and her party are corrupt as hell.
In 2002 her dad (Jean-Marie Le Pen) managed to make it to the second round with 16,86% (his opponent, Chirac, had 19,88%).
What happened in the second round is that everyone teamed up against Le Pen, and so Chirac won with 82,21% of votes (Le Pen: 17,79%). This scenario is very likely to happen again.
Which party isn't?
Le Pen is mightier than the sword.
if she is at the second round, any kind of scandal involving her opponent or any terror attacks will be silenced so that she doesn't get any chance at winning.
It's going to be 2 weeks of maximal shilling against her and about how she's Hitler and you have to vote for the other candidate if you don't want the holocaust to happen again.
Bullshit. She will win the same way Trump won.
This. If Fillon had a chance of winning chances are he'd make a coalition with Le Pen.
Jean Marie didn't have the momentum that Marine has. I still think she'll lose in the 2nd round but it will be way closer. I think she'll have more than 10 million votes in the second round.
No, not anymore.
Extremely different situation. She isn't as despised as he was/is. She has been taking care to never say anything too controversial that could be used against her, and she even banned him from the party allowing normies to vote fn even if they hated him.
Feminists cannot attack her too.
Once again, times have changed, this won't happen anymore.
Nicolas Zippo Aignant said his wife is a parliamentary assistant on the TFone 20h.
Nobody harass him. The good judges are too busy to free Miss Sauvage with Mr Hollande's good grace.
>First round: 90%
How is this even possible? I read the wiki article from that other user. If a candidate has the absolute majority in the first round, there won't be a second round.
Did i miss anything?
>Trump
>Getting 50% of the two-party vote
90% of chance to be first in the first round. But she won't have 50% of the votes... maybe 30%?
hard to estimate but currently looking at polls and taking account of the brexit effect here are my estimates of how it will happen likely.
>First turn
>Marine le Pen : 28-35%
>Macron (ex-banker, pro EU) : 20-25%
>Fillon (tax more people , regulate less entreprises, Libertarian cuckservative) : 12-17%
>Hamon (literally muslim cock sucking commie, want universal income) : 10-14%
>Melenchon (commie, mildly euroskeptic, ecocuck) :8-13%
>everything else go to minor candidates who run for the money
Second turn:
>Marine : 45-60%
>Macron : 40-55%
The second turn look close but what you have to understand is that Marine is neither Right wing nor Left wing and Macron too.
This will be a fight in between Nationalism and Globalism.
And in truth Macron is a pure breed EU austerity fag, he's trying to hide it since it literally 3 month close to the election and he didn't release his program yet, he's the fucking ex-minister of economy of the our current and most hated president in history and responsible for a pretty terrible economical result.
It will catch up to him and French people in reality would be glad to fucking deport Mohammed if they can not get fucked by austerity and regain some of their might.
Also Le Pen has pretty top tier Democratic policies like Referendums up the wazoo and a swiss-like system that she want to put in place.
>Did i miss anything?
No, it's just that user saying bullshit.
50% + 1 vote is enough to win at the first round.
alright, my failure
I wish you were right... I fear too many people will vote against fn just because it is the fn. They might not look at their policies at all...
>maybe 30%?
A lot more. I think like , between 45 to 60.
chance to win the final round: 40%
...
She is only four points behind the Faggot Macron in the second round of voting and is the most popular in the first round of voting as well as most popular in 18-49 demographic.
It's happening.
Yeah, Fillon was really the last chance.
The problem is that she can get good 35-40% of the votes. The rest will vote against her, not for the other candidate but against her.
If there was Fillon then his hyper-lassiez-faire programme would scare leftists away from him or even convince them to vote FN but it doesn't seem like it, they were bad at containing the crisis. This could've give her narrow victory but as it is - no way.
God speed (You), sons of europe
Stay delusionnal, Marine is no better than Macron, rich heiress, murdered her father, divorced twice, won't assume her own first name, surrounded by lgbt elitist enarques, pledged allegiance to israel...
Problem ia that young people do not vote and old people vote. And it looks like old people don't like her.
You're wrong, the leftist are a minority. The best chance for Le Pen is to face a leftist, which is likely gonna happen. She had no chance with Fillon.
Not so sure about that anymore. We know that if you hold right wing nationalist views you are more likely to vote than your opponents no matter your age group.
>it looks like old people don't like her.
It's actually the other way around.
Didn't Trump ?
Oh, I forgot that you were a real white-supremacist aryan, JOKE you're just a rapefugees-host cuckhold german.
and so Merkel's 4th reich ends slowly
>The problem is that she can get good 35-40% of the votes. The rest will vote against her, not for the other candidate but against her.
you're sorely mistaken, if you don't understand why FN rose from less than 10% to the current almost 30% in polls which don't account for the brexit effect.
Thinking this is a rehash of the 2002 election is a very bad mistake.
>Stay delusionnal, Marine is no better than Macron, rich heiress, murdered her father, divorced twice, won't assume her own first name, surrounded by lgbt elitist enarques, pledged allegiance to israel...
I don't give a fuck about LGBT , divorce and Israel.
What i fucking care about is wether we'll fucking clean the damn Muslims and africans scum from our neighborhoods and fucking send them back home whilst not fucking destroying our social system futher to pay for EU cuckery and also leave EU.
That i care about.
What i care about is that i can vote for my own laws, if i get that i don't need her anymore i'll launch a referendum to ban fag marriage without her help or support and since we're the majority we'll win.
You mistake my point, she will give the people back to the people and give us back our sovereignty that's all i care about, i want to choose.
She won't win. But that doesn't matter, she just has to better than before.
The longer it takes the pendulum to swing, the harder it will be when it finally happens. Besides it's better she wins big later than forms a weak coalition now.
Given the current polls, around 20-25% of voters in France are lefties, assuming Macron voters aren't.
Assuming all the voters from the first turn would carry over, she would win if those 20-25% either wouldn't vote or vote for her.
It's easier for cucservatives to rally behind centre-left candidate than it is for lefties to rally behind Fillon in the 2nd round, simple as that.
She has literally no chance to make more than 50% in the second round.
Why? Because the media tells you so or because of an actual reason?
Also, don't Le Pen's chances increase the more the riots du jour escalate?
>assuming Macron voters aren't.
That's where you're wrong.
>It's easier for cucservatives to rally behind centre-left candidate than it is for lefties to rally behind Fillon in the 2nd round, simple as that.
Once again you're wrong.
The leftist have absolutely no shame to vote for the right to defeat the FN, it happens each time.
On the other way the rightist are deeply disgusted by everything that comes from the left and will certainly vote FN.
For the future of Europe, we need her to win this. For fuck sake France, where is your chauvinism?
>Says the man from the country that elected Merkel
The opinions of Germans on which candidates look good is worse than irrelevant.
Fillon Vs Schulz incoming.
Fillon's hairline will save France.
Have more faith in your own people, it might have only been 52 to 48 but for a day the spirit of Empire walked among us for a day on June 24th.
For Le Pen to lose would signify the French having succumbed to self-loathing, I doubt that's going to happen.
>implying german polacks like merkel
we are brothers here, user
Your entire country is corrupt as hell and yet you'll refuse to elect the best chance at keeping France France because "muh racist!" You deserve whatever you get.
The bookmakers have her at 3.00 to win. I wouldn't call that zero chance. She actually has a 33% chance of winning.
Plus you can't trust the polls.
It's a two round sytem asshole. That means she would need the majortiy in the second round and she's going up against Macron and Fillon whose voters will join against her.
Why are you a fucking retard who doesn't understand how that system works?
Not gonna lie, former le Pen voter here. It's amazing watching her crash and burn, but in all seriousness, we can't let this woman have the nuclear codes. Gonna vote Macron.
I meant according to the bookmakers she has a 33% chance of winning. That's gotta count for something.
Personally I believe she has at least a 50% chance. You can't underestimate the current movement (Trump, Brexit etc.)
>*preps bull*
>resorting to namecalling
Frontiste cucks are really affraid of facts aren't they?
It's a long campaign.
Like a 3000 meters steeplechase.
You need to keep arguments for the last sprint.
Shés lusting for power because that's how she was raised and succeeding where her father has failed makes it a bigger obsession for her.
You're getting fooled if you think that her election would mean death squad scourging the suburbs and deporting anybody with a muslim name.
FN has proven to be a moneymaking scheme and FN elected officials to be as crooked as any politician.
They come as anti capitalist but they're certainly not and they won't save peoplés jobs by having your undies made in France at 50 euros a piece because people will always want to pay for cheap garbage made in Bangladesh
>Not gonna lie
>here is my old copypasta
Merci d'avoir corriger le registre.
>oh look another non country that get's fed EU money wanting us to stay so we pay them dem WELFARE PROGRAMS AND SHIEEEET
>Implying FN won't deport illegal immigrants, make integration standarts huge (like in swiss where almost no first gen immigrants get the nationality)
>Implying FN won't fucking Import tariff the shit of China and thierd world countries like they say they'll do everytime the subject is brought up
>Implying we won't leave EU if they pass
>Implying they won't spam Referendums and increase proper democracy
>Implying they won't give such support to police that they'll finally be able to charge at protester and fracture some lefty chimp's skulls
you're seriously deluded
It's people like him that ruin my non country.
No they won't because they'll never have a legislative majority
No they won't because they'll never be able to change the constitution
Greentext as much as you want you cannot govern with 30 % of voters and most of them being dying old farts
No they won't because they have no leverage on China to impose tariffs
russian traitor whore
>>Implying they won't give such support to police that they'll finally be able to charge at protester and fracture some lefty chimp's skulls
And that's all that matters, right?
>they'll never have a legislative majority
If people vote FN at the presidency, they'll vote FN at the legislative don't you think?
>30%
If FN wins, it will be at least 50%...
She's probably going to get elected because:
No strong candidate against her. Fillon has been ridiculed, Macron comes out of a bank, and now everyone hates bankers
Franco-maghreb people hate the left since they understand now that they've been milked for votes for decades, and they enjoy the traditional values Le Pen carries.
Far-right parties like FN and Lesquen have really understood memetic warfare, and the internet savvy 18-35 enjoy this far-right meme peddling
People interested in politics are fed up, and many will vote for Le Pen if only out of spite. People not interested in politics will go vote Le Pen to annoy professional politicians, and other voters.
Irate white french + french coming out of the immigration that resent gay marriage + memetic seduction on heavy internet users + troll voting = Madame Président
She's anti-EU, that's so important that basically nothing else matters. France withdrawing even partially would be the beginning of the end for it.
You mean the way they control every region, department and cities Ith their big ass scores?
FN fucks make me sick with their constant whining, blaming immigrants, leftists, bobos, women, the EU for all their woes. They're complaining about muh saucisson and muh traditions while they buy cheap ass meat at Leclerc that kill the small farmers and destroy the soils like in Britanny. Then they complain that everything is changing, that their local butcher shop has closed, that artisans are shutting down their shops but yet they buy crappy furniture at ikea, sit their ass in front of the tv and complain more. They're not the ones trying to weigh on things, trying to work with the community, setting up community gardens, teaching kids or buying local. They moan about an abstract past that they never knew and was terrible filled with biniou, bad wine, wars and tuberculosis. They proclaim the greatness of France and yet they barely know its writers, composers, painters, architects and thinkers. They listen to fucking Johnny and barely know how to pour a Pastis, it's fucking Dupont-Lajoie
Its sad to see so many countries sucking russian cock. But then again, they have never experienced russians destroying your country.
France has been condemned to suck great powers' cocks since Vichy.
Yes yes Jonne, everyones loves Russia which destroyed Finngolia and prevented you from writing your own language, while simultaneously hating poor Sweden who was always so nice to you, supportive of your culture and never tried to keep you down
I swear some of you finngolians are textbook Stockholm Syndrome
>Stockholm
heh
It is a shame, because I really liked France when I lived there for a year.
Frenchies could be really great if you guys stopped sucking dicks and grew a spine of your own.
>russification
I know I know, you dont know history of other nations but please just try sometimes my countryside hick.
Blah blah blah.
Was your opinion ever relevant?
It's not about sucking russian cock. France is not an eastern European country so we don't have to fear Russia (aside from us having nukes too). On the contrary, it would be good to get cheap gaz from them while exporting various produces.
Let's face it: it would be much better than to continue taking America's cock. We lost billions of dollars because of the USA as they forced our cuck president to withdraw the warship deal with Russia while forcing the euro cucks to raise economical sanctions which killed a lot of activity between our nations.
kek, calme toi Willy.
You're right, but what you describe is 80% of the population. If you think the PS, Green, LR voters don't buy shit meat at Leclerc or shit stuff at IKEA you're delusional. Homo Modernus is a piece of shit and vote for absolutely anyone.
>barely know how to pour a Pastis
lol no, this is something every frenchman knows since childhood, especially the FN families.
Did Russia prevent you from writing your own language and forbade the emergence of a finnish culture? Oh wait no it was Sweden!
Who's the ruling elite of Finngolia? is it russo-finns? Oh wait no it's finno-swedes!
Ei vittu, full-blown Stockholm Syndrome :DDD
Wow, listen to this moroccan halfbreed laying it down straight from Molenbeek
Maybe those sanctions are in place for a reason?
Maybe there are some consequences on shooting down a plane full of Europeans?
Hurf durf berbeeri.
en.wikipedia.org
>en.wikipedia.org
Ok, so at the very end of the XIXth century, and two decades before the bolshevik revolution, Russia appointed an asshole to rule over finngolian lands? what about the unprecedented freedom you mongols had for 9/10 of the XIXth century, after having been under swedish occupation for centuries?
Seems some of you finngolians love swedish cock as much as the swedish love erythrean dick
Russian rule just brought more useless wars and famines. Shit management.
Never again.
Hey the 2 turbo autists. You got your vaccins it seems so.
The derailing of this thread won't be tolerated by the Demos. No pasaran.
The Hyper Korean Finngolian war is not of importance.
Vote Fillon for the nation.
I've never seen a Finn smiling. It's like watching a Snow Leopard alive.
HE STARTED IT.
Just the name Macron is cool enough to get votes.
Fucking Marvel tier villain name.
Also you have not been here so its no surprise.
(((Fake news)))
Honestly I don't think politics is now the same as in 2002. Marine is not his father and french conservatives will probably think "well, better an identitarian than another globalist european cuck".
Vote for Genghis Khan and make Finland great again
Albanian shut up.
At least my people are of the GOLDEN Horde.
Are you wooden gypsies?
I'm so glad and impressed at how much Sup Forums is interested and informed about our national politics.
I love you guys.
EU delenda est!