except this time we'll have:
- high levels of public debt so no cash for bailouts
- zillions in printed money
- World debt at an all time high
- Major trading partners also facing a grim economic outlook and eventually missing their own interest payments
- Higher concentration of power (including corporate power)
your thoughts?
Other urls found in this thread:
youtu.be
en.wikipedia.org
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Global civilization is ripe for collapse.
Mankind's doom is at hand.
Praise Kek
Ez az!
You do realize BILLIONS of people aren't in the stock market yet, and multiple millions will join in the next 20 year? Its a never ending pyramid scheme, enjoy the ride.
Then why can't the fed stop printing money?
because the hispanic, chinese, and poo in loo middle classes haven't put their chips in yet. they have to grow to that level first.
They couldn't directly reimpliment the slave class, so they do the next best thing and manipulate the currency to such an extent that it degrades the middle class to serve the same function as a slave class.
Can't wait for Trump to audit the Fed. Then the heads will roll.
Trump's new tax. Preposal will lower p/e ratios allowing for more growth..
Market collapse is a meme
Also the bubble you are looking at is the big data bubble. It can be seen in companies like Twitter that have no real value, and are purely prospective in worth. Twitter failing will probably be the needle to burst the bubble.
I'm not American but follow American politics very closely. I suspect Trump is just another Obama, Bush, Clinton & Co. with a different package adjusted for today's reality
Looks like a buying opportunity
I think this is not an industry bubble, it's overarching.
By the way, does anyone have a proper analysis of the money printing experiment we've been doing and how the subsequent crash should play out?
The soon to be tech bubble burst will literally turn San Francisco into Detroit 2.0
...
Troll
I did some work with startups in Portugal (you know, the alleged San Francisco of Europe). Startup scene is a meme fueled by desperate founders, opportunistic VCs and governments looking for good press.
>Startup scene is a meme fueled by desperate founders, opportunistic VCs and governments looking for good press.
All of those things led to the dot com crash of the 90s. A bunch of investors realized they weren't making money from these startups which is the exact same scenario right now
>I suspect Trump is just another Obama, Bush, Clinton & Co.
Nope, he is the reset factor for the cycle you are observing. If you look at our past presidents closely you can see the pattern in our government vaguely.
We tend to grow off of ages inspired by influential figures, and this can be seen in who we elect for president. It usually starts with some great person who does a lot of tangible, beneficial things for the country, and then the next few presidencies will gain their merit/"mandate" from the deeds of their predecessor.
You see this in the last 3 presidencies, with Obama being a sort failed restart/compromised follower of Clinton's "mantle".
So with all of this in mind, I have no doubt that Trump is not just another person at the end of the last cycle, but the start of the next one. He has already proven to be said person with his completely unprecedented speed in his execution of his ideas.
It's time bois
Trump hired the swamp he's a kike like the rest were all doomed
>zillions in printed money
If the government could print that money we wouldn't be in debt.
>I think this is not an industry bubble, it's overarching.
It is a finance bubble, just like the previous 2 you highlighted. This current bubble lends to the undeserved inherent value of data. Investors have been greatly misunderstanding how big data works, or more specifically how it influences the market. It is going to be a big pop, but I believe it will be more like the dotcom crash.
In other words, RIP California.
No one has apparently noticed the pure truth in your statement. Checked.
(Also even without digits you'd be dead on.)
>77333
Wow, I didn't even notice it myself. He always does have a faint touch, doesn't he?
The crash will come in march, when people realize that
a) The nominal tax rate that SP 500 companies pay is around 24%, due to exemptions, a 20% flat isnt going to increase their income that much.
b) Congress clashes with trump over debt sealing hike and tax cuts.
c) the international economy is already contracting.
...
Too big to fail...
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Serious question:
At what flat rate would companies start to see serious benefits, assuming there is a rate above zero and we wouldn't crash the necessary aspects of government with no survivors?
Real assets including real estate?
The Federal Reserve and all other privately owned central banks are the cause.
The practice of Fractional Reserve Banking is the main problem. Banks can lend out 10 times more money than they have and with the privately owned central bank loaning the money to the government the debt just stacks up like crazy.
www youtube.com/watch?v=B4wU9ZnAKAw
This is ENTIRELY a function of money supply. (((Who))) controls the issuance of credit?
Lmao another crash is coming? We haven't even recovered from the last one
Just crash already. I'm tired of this wishy-washy will it happen wont it happen bullshit.
no, you and other plebs haven't recovered. Big Boys have brought their goods into the dry over the last eight years. Hope you are prepared, this ride is gone be fun
Don't forget we can't lower interest rates if they're still low.
Lend me like 1 nazi gold bar at least you faget don't be a kike
I think you should buy put options for your stock, that's what I think.
The market is irrational. All the bubbles can pop yet the market can go right on ahead for years upon years and never drop. That's because investors set the prices, and Trump is playing to them like a fiddle.
There might be work for you. How much can you stretch your anus and how many golf balls fit into your intestines?
Ok but what channels drove the money to the stock market? Which other classes of assets are as overvalued?
Where is dry?
that too, monetary policy seems to be exhausted
>negative interest rates
maybe do inflation adjusted, or historic P/E ratio at least? makes you look less of a retard
That sounds painful, I'm not doing it
>except this time
Nothing exceptional. You have to take longer period. We are in the end of the debt cycle, like in the 30s.
For me it was Bitcoin/Dollar/Euro/Rubel, Pot and Weapon stocks, the oil bear market (still don't understand how I made money) bought with cheap student loans and managed not to get taxed on most. Friends made some fast bucks with getting cheap land by corruption, build house with a lot of tax money help, build by illegals from the balkans paid 3.5€/h.
There have been enough options. Now it is all about not losing to much
One of many metrics that I could choose to make my point that crash is looming. The only other odd points in this chart are two crashes. As much as I'd like to make my ivy league economics degree do some work, share price will suffice for this one
That's the spirit. You will survive, no matter what
youtu.be
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>overturning Dodd-Frank
Nah, he's absolutely not helping the country. I'm in finance, so I would be partying about this if I didn't realize he's blatantly selling out the country I love. Oh well, I'll get wealthy then move elsewhere.
Wow, nice technical analysis. How long did you spend developing that indicator? Is it proprietary, or are you willing to share it?
PROTIP: go learn about bitcoin, ether and blockchains. keep your money out for now though. The banks know the dollar is going to fail within ~10 years, so they're all trying to develop the infrastructure for the new gold standard "first". It's gonna be a wild ride boys.
Hey man, thanks :). No, if you just google S&P500 a set the chart range to "max" you can get the same data (without my comments of course). ;)
i wish my parents had had the sense to invest in the stock market while i was young instead of handing money to the bank for 0.5% interest.
But that's not the only terrible financial choice they made, and i had to learn everything the hard way myself after i became curious about it.
It's really no wonder the rich mostly stay rich and the poor mostly stay poor.
"Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication"
When you see a pool full of shite you don't have to dive in and put your nose to the floor and collect some samples and wait for the lab to reply. Don't get sucked in.
He over turned Dodd Frank because he wants to use smaller banks, who were the ones taking most of the damage from the regulations. He's stated before he wants to do investments into infrastructure using smaller community banks. Dodd-Frank was shit anyway, and it should be plainly obvious by now this country has been sold out for a long time by the powers Trump is challenging.
Did i get it right that Dodd-frank didn't actually limit what banks could do, but merely increased the paperwork required for their operation?
shadilay
Pretty much, the numbers reporting meant a lot more for small banks to pay in order to meet standards.
please make this happen
>The only other odd points in this chart are two crashes. As much as I'd like to make my ivy league economics degree do some work, share price will suffice for this one
SP P/E RATIO Jan 1, 2016 22.18
CRASH IMINE.....owait its literally nothing
>We haven't even recovered from the last one
Who hasn't? There is no collective "we".
Stop worrying about shit you cannot change, and concentrate on self-advancement. The drama doesn't matter. What happens to others doesn't matter. What happens to you should matter to you.
corporatism inbound
should I buy now or sell what little bit I have
The only way we're going to get the 'small' banks back again is if we break up the large banks. Which means it isn't going to happen, and it's counter-productive to assume that mom-and-pop places have any room in a globalized era of international businesses.
>World debt at an all time high
Who does the world owe money too?
Mars?
There isn't much to crash right now with how bad great parts of America still feel in the current economy. Did we ever truly get out of the last recession?
People with equity recovered
Globalization as we know it is on its way out
honestly
never invest more than you can afford to lose
I put in 5% of my savings, it's now 150% of my savings
The Future. Technically speaking, the Debt apparatus is a way of siphoning money from the Future economy to bolster the current one. It functions in a similar way to an absolutely massive Ponzi Scheme.
This is manufactured so they can introduce a global currency that the UN has the sole right to print
I don't understand.
The governments of the world pay people with money that doesn't exist, making the future worse because inflation?
yep, they just didnt go back t the trendline 3% growth, which is why it's been considered 'sluggish'. Reccesion is defined by half a year of negative GDP growth, which USA has not had since...2008? too lazy to check
That isn't going to resolve inherent market consolidation. Removing a few regulations is, at best, only going to make current institutions more efficient, and, at worse, lead to an economic crisis.
Even then, if the dollar is on it's way out, as pointed out, it will lead to a collapse very similar to the Crisis of the Third Century, which will make it impractical to trade WITHIN the continental United States, let alone the world. Think of Brazil without the police, but this time its everywhere. No Food Stamps left to feed the masses, just pure chaos. Entire cities would be lost.
>I'm in finance
>you can trust me
Yes, because trusting (((experts))) has gone so well in the past.
There isn't a clean way out of this mess, Trump or no Trump. For now it seems his plan is to coast on easy credit as long as possible and trying to get actual production started within the country. I don't think he's going to work any miracles, though. No one knows how exactly this will play out.
Agreed
>spain
>we'll
hahahahahahahahaha I love being reassured that the US is in charge of the fucking world everyday by foreigners living in shithole CUNTries commenting on our business. feels good.
there's probably a correction coming, but the US has decent enough economic fundamentals atm. people fearing catastrophe are just assuming a tail event is imminent, which isn't really a smart way to go through life.
the fed doesn't print money, and its actively raising rates. wtf are you on about?
I just heard that one of the deregulation policies in order and it Makes sense to me was to heavily deregulate but also lower the reserve limits by increasing the reserve rate to 20 or 30% to absorb the added risk.
The people in the world that have debt own money to the people that hold that debt.
Funny for you to mention this at a time when the S&P500 PE ratio is 70% above historical average...(and the mid-term outlook includes defaults by several European sovereigns)
You wave the concept of "recession" around but at this point do you still trust the numbers that are put out? Also, how much of the current western recovery has been fueled by consumer debt? I've seen politicians and MSM in Europe hail their "recoveries" whilst forgetting to mention big surges in consumer debt
>historic av erage
should look at the trend line, or past 30 years trend line, PE from early 19th century doesnt mean shit today. unless you are saying that market has been overvalued for what...40years?
- not spanish
- ivy league economics degree (then again all thats taught me is not to trust experts, especially in economics and of course Fenance
>whilst forgetting to mention big surges in consumer debt
stopped officially about 4 years ago user.
30 years***********
I saw a report that 70% of dwellings in America's 20 largest cities had a mortgage, with a quarter of those being underwater, If another crash comes, it could be ugly because ppl are leveraged to the max already.
Been holding 100% of my nut in US Treasuries since October...time will tell if I made a good decision or not.
In that case I'm saying that the Shiller PE ratio has only been above the current level on two occasions, black monday and dot com
wouldn't call that a surge just yet.
because its not, doomsayers are delusional. If '''''bubbles''''''' or downturns were easy to predict they wouldnt happen in the 1st place
house prices are skyrocketing because the population is increasing faster than anyone can build new cities to house it
the cost of housing wont drop even in a economic collaspse
You should buy a small amount of out of the money s and p puts just for shits. Volatility is cheaper than ever
and in the past 30years its been around where it is today, shocker
thats bull, obviously prices will drop, but not as much for prime locations
>tfw everything is finally going to shit
Thank god. You could see it all start to unravel about 5-6 yrs ago. So glad I didn't fall for the family and wife meme. Now I only have to worry about me when the lights go off.
Remember, Condos are the last to rise and the first to fall.
When your waiter friends get condos Its time to start unloading and deleveraging.
So the total level of debt in one quarter increased 0.02 Trillion dollares, i.e 20 000 000 000 (20 bn). In the same period, according to the US gov the economy grew about 100 bn, I hope this puts these numbers into perspective. There is already too much debt in the US economy, your adding to the interest rate burden. By the way, have you heard of the current chinese debt crisis?