Hullo Pol
I am not a doomer. I do not believe in rapid zombie apocalypse style economic collapse.
I do not endorse the industry of scam artists constantly calling crash.
I did hold tech stocks like MSFT in the 90s and sold them in 1999 something I am very glad I did.
I want to draw your attention to the event that will probably shape the next two years. The near inevitability of a major stock price correction occurring soon.
When the fed raised interest rates to 'cool' the stoock markets in 2000, it collapsed. The fed is now on a one way train to raise interest rates. It becomes more expensive for idiots to borrow money and gamble with margin call leverage as one example.
Robert shiller was one man I followed in 1999, he eventually published a book and won a nobel prize based on his studies of PE ratios as a wrning in stock markets.
Attached is the chart of his metric the shiller PE ratio.
In 30 years I have never seen a worse time to buy stocks. The SnP dividends are shockingly bad, the shiller PE ratio is now approaching 30 (anyone buying much after 29 is an idiot).
So were is the market going
Lets take the dow as an example (hit has soared over the last six months).
The current shiller PE is 28.97. Just under 30.
The current dow jones index is at 20,519.57
The mean average since 1881 for the shiller PE ration has been 16.72
The lowest it got was 4.78 in 1920.
So the AVERAGE is 16, let's be generous and say 17 we are basically at 30
But in correction it goes much lower
Let be very very generous and say it corrects to not much underaverage let's say 10 (nowhere near the low of 4.7)
That gives us
10/30 x 20500 =6800
So that is what you are looking at
The dow going from 20500-2100 down to 6800-7000
I have literally laughed at doomers in the preceding years so I am making this post now and with a clear mind.
The defining political event of the next 18 months is going to be the greatest dow collapse in history.
