/odg/ Oroville Dam General

STORMS BEGIN IN 14 HOURS

HOW FUCKED IS THE OROVILLE DAM?

Other urls found in this thread:

youtube.com/watch?v=OQS5G49w6Mg
kcra.com/nowcast
latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-oroville-spillways-20170214-story.html
youtube.com/watch?v=E0Rzi8kELM4
cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?ORO
twitter.com/SFWRedditImages

How fucked? Dam fucked.

FPBP

IT'S HAPPENING

I wasn't sure if it would
but goddammit
i guess it really is
the rain is falling
the tide is rising
let the earth be cleansed
praise kek
heil trump
hail victory
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + +
+ + + + + +
+ + + + +
+ + + +
+ + +
+ +
+

Also, it seems like they've lowered from a mandatory evacuation to a evacuation warning...People are being allowed to return to their homes.

From what I can calculate (which is probably wrong) they will have drained somewhere between 30-35' of water off of the dam out of their goal of 50'. And I'm trying to be pretty lenient with my math. Who knows what rate their really letting water out of the main spillway, because with the rate of erosion that was happening just Sunday, I doubt it's been able to withstand 100,000 cfs for 72+ hours.

I'm showing it at 880 feet. They may be able to squeeze down another 5 before the rain picks up.

It's going to be fucking close, and it's more of a question of whether shit just gets damaged locally, or if itgoes to full spillover.

Still, they sent people home.

That's what I've calculated... But their goal was 850'.

...

Thread theme
youtube.com/watch?v=OQS5G49w6Mg

Don't know how fucked the dam is. Are there any pictures of the repairs to the emergency spillway or the main spillway or is this being censored?

It's going to break. Jerry Brown should be arrested.

here:
kcra.com/nowcast
you can see some live footage (once in a while)
from what I could understand, the erosion hasn't gone up too much since yesterday on that spillway BUT it looks like it has gotten wider and there's a chance the erosion will go up around the spillway not right through it
the angle they're using doesn't show how much there is till those poles, unfortunately

they sent them home to pack their shit up. they will full bore the regular spillway to prevent the emwrgency one from veing triggered because it would fail.

so they will flood half of oroville just dumping water rather than fuck over the whole valley.

they are racing to save biggs and gridley. if it goes those spots are going back to swampland.

>Storms from Wed night to Sat morning
HABBEDING

Sadly I think it is not happening.

They've been draining the reservoir as fast as they can and Thursday's rain is less than two inches.

Its one of those things where if competent people are given enough time and money they can prevent complete disaster.

I wanted san francisco removed too.

Worst flood in California in ~250 years.

2"of rain doesn't mean only 2" added to the lake. Also count in snowmelt run off and everything upstream.

Fuck you Kek it's happening.

the snow fall level is falling, meaning the snow that is below that will be hit by warmer rain and melt. it has very little to do with water hitting the lake from rain, but all the run off.

I will pray for the greatest rains you have ever seen before bed. I hope this happens and we dont get the blue balls

Yes 2" means more than 2" in the lake, but I got a feeling four days of rain won't be enough.

benis

...

>“This is an aggressive, proactive attack to address the erosion,” said Bill Croyle, acting director of the state Department of Water Resources. “There’s a lot of people, a lot of equipment, a lot of materials moving around, from the ground and from the air.”
>latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-oroville-spillways-20170214-story.html

California in charge of proactive action

Seriously fucked. Oroville will be wiped from the earth. Trips in thread yesterday confirmed.

BRING THE RAIN

...

Digits confirm, KEK will flush the toilet.

Thoth will

California deserves this. They kept complaining about how they need water. Now the faggots are running away from it.

Dam is fucked

The main thing that made a difference in the visibility of how bad the erosion was is that early on there was still dirt. So you could see half of the hillside eroded away, dirt falling off, etc, it was awful. Since then all the dirt has been eroded in the path of the water, so it's just a bunch of rock that doesn't look as bad from a distance.

>Thoth confirms when Kek is asked
>Kek confirms when Thoth is asked

What did the ancient gods mean by this?

Not happening. Mandatory evacuation has just been changed to optional.

When it rains, it pours

It wasn't "just" anything. They changed the evacuation order yesterday morning during a press conference. Every single post I have seen saying it was "just" changed has been posted long after it "just" happened. Please stop googling news and then coming to Sup Forums to repost it as if it's breaking news.

Yesterday is well within the timeframe of 'just'. Stop being a fucking idiot.

Heh, that's interesting. Just yesterday the forecast was a LOT less rain, just rain on 2 days with lots of sun in between. It's almost enough to make a person believe in ancient egyptian gods of chaos.

B-but that increasingly nervous sheriff said everything was fine

I'm just tired of seeing the same format of post over and over again, starting hours after the original press conference which everyone who had been watching the happening thread saw in real time. It's not news to anyone, which just makes people posting it sound clueless.

>the gods were the original samefags

Maybe this is what they meant.

The only way there is going to be a major event is if the primary concrete spillway gets eroded all the way to the top, which is extremely unlikely. I'm disappointed too, but it's not happening. With the current outflow the rain is a non-issue.

Praise Kek, glory and gets be upon him

The emergency spillway is the only part that could fail under the rain.

The only thing that would cause is a small flood following the course of the feather river, mainly affecting riverside trailer parks and maybe some ag land.

They don't need it down by the start of the rain, since it takes time for the rain to fall and reach the dam.

14 = 7 + 7
77

thats how fucked you are

rain is starting. light. smells good.

t. 20 mins north of the dam.

If the emergency spillway completely fails that's like 20 feet (judging by eye) by the area of the lake of water, that's not a small flood

>tfw this will never happen in california

The main spillway is going to keep eroding, because they don't really have any choice but to keep running it at above 50,000 cfs.

It's raining here in Washington, too. I have nothing else to add. Here, have my energy.

...

What location (town, zip code) should I use to monitor the weather?

We need a happening in Seattle

It hasn't eroded further than where it was 24 hours ago. The main spillway has stabilized.

Oroville, 95965 or 95966

The stormfags are responsible for this one.

Oroville, CA, dumbass

>proactive

after the dam already nearly failed and suffered severe damage.

Yeah, I'm not an expert on hydrology but I don't see how days of heavy rain can be "okay" for them considering they missed their target lake height before rainfall by about 50% of what they originally wanted. I don't know how much runoff will really happen over those days. Then again, the people saying its fine haven't produced any in-depth analysis either so are they basing it off some expertise, or just assuming it will be fine because?

If the lake is replenished quick enough that they have to keep the main spillway at its current level for days and days, I don't how that can be good. And fucking forget if it they have to up the cfs.

It will probably happen in our lifetimes (assuming you're young as me or younger, and I'm in my early 30's). I made a thread about the 300-year-tsunami we're due for when this happening began but no one seemed to care so it died.

I base my statements off of information given during a press briefing yesterday, along with basic logic. The outflow of the reservoir is 10x it's normal inflow, and will handle the additional inflow of the rain without issue.

That must be the clouds that came through SF yesterday. Right now more rain clouds are moving past.

>I base my statements off of information given during a press briefing yesterday

Well that explains it all, I suppose.

thanks senpai, let it rain.

mount rainer could pop like st helens.

oroville, tho remember the rain collecting basin is a much larger area and the biggest thing to watch out for waterwise is the snowmelt.

>And fucking forget if it they have to up the cfs
Why? If the unbroken part is cemented to rock, the water will just keep falling and hitting the rocks below. There's no more dirt to erode.

The 9.0 earthquake/tsunami event is far more likely to happen in our lifetimes I'd say. It's a moderately likely event, whereas massive volcanic eruptions are more of a black swan event. People seem to ignore how likely the whole tsunami thing is, though. They treat it like some vague possibility, when really it's more likely to happen than not. Geologically speaking, we're overdue, and history tells us these tsunamis typically don't overshoot by hundreds of years, they happen like clockwork. There can be a variance of a few decades, maybe a century, but not 100s of years, and we're already like 50-70~ years overdue.

You can sit around waiting for it to happen as long as you like, the only Avenue through which a disaster is possible is a total failure of the main spillway, which given the fact that the erosion has ceased progressing, is very unlikely.

But I'm sure Sup Forums knows better than the many professionals and engineers on the scene.

Well said, I've been trying to explain that eventuality since yesterday

I am but a wee lad, so here's hoping.

The many professionals and engineers were what caused this in the first place, so I'm not sure why you're so confident. I'm not saying it's certain it's going to fail, I just find the certainty that it won't absurd, especially based off a small town press conference (do you not know the track record of honesty in such situations, especially in small, local authorities?), with a guy who called the massive erosion of the spillway over the last 4 days completely "stable" (and yes, to be technical, it did stabilize once almost everything that could erode had eroded, but he made no mention of that, he made it sound as if it was a fucking pristine highway), a guy who didn't even know when the emergency spillway was built.

I'd probably give it even odds at this point. I'm curious. Do you think the people working at the site are as confident about it? I'd honestly be surprised. I bet they're more nervous than most bystanders would believe.

New forecast out

I think what we saying is that the rains will overflow the dam, and by proxy water will begin spilling over the emergency spillway. That will cause the dirt to erode, weaken the support of the emergency spillway and will eventually cause it to collapse, unleashing a tidal wave of water down the valley.

yeah there isnt much brown in the water falling from the damaged spillway, meaning it is hitting bedrock. so while it sounds bad it means it probably is going to function okay.

the issue is they werent able to drop lake levels to 850, and they might need to increase the flow out that normal spillway to avoid triggering the useless emergency one.

they will probably flood lower oroville to save the rest of the valley. shit sucks, but worse bit is im betting the sites reservoir gets put on the back burner for another 3 decades.

>cozy original content
And people still shit-talk this happening

kek

What I don't get is why they don't turn up the flow, at least for testing. Turning it up by 5% could be just enough to prevent floods.

I've got a feeling they do everything by committee and can't make a decision like that.

The main spillway will not be why it fails. Erosion on the emergency spillway is what will cause a collapse

2/15/17 Sniper in the woods across the Chasm!
youtube.com/watch?v=E0Rzi8kELM4

>flooding and watery grave for four days straight

Kek release me from this earth

There were documents showing the peak rated flow of the main spillway, it's many, many times higher than what they're using (like 3-6x). That's one of the things that makes me skeptical of their talk. The question is this: are they holding back because the rivers are just already too full to handle that flow, because the spillway isn't as safe as they're saying, or simply because they feel they don't have to to meet their targets? Assuming they are telling us everything, I'd guess it has to do with the rivers being too full, but who knows.

That's not going to get better with all this rain, though. So... yeah, threading the needle and all that jazz.

They should be nervous. This is a high stakes effort. I don't mean to downplay the seriousness of the situation.

Howecer as previously stated, the only way anything can happen is if the now stabilized main spillway continues to erode. Due to the geology of the hill, this is impossible. The emergency (dirt) spillway will not be forced into use because of how signification the outflow they are maintaining is. The inflow and direct addition brought on my the rain will still be smaller than the current outflow. Of this fact they are confident.

they are trying to reinforce that emergency spillway but I think it's all futile. When the damn overflows, it'll rot away that foundation and doom commences.

>they will probably flood lower oroville to save the rest of the valley
That's a decision I'm not confident they will have the guts to make. Maybe California should pay the owners for property damage from that? The town was there before the dam.

The rains will be insufficient to affect the level of the reservoir that severely, and at peak inflow (legit downpour) the amount of water entering the reservoir will still be less that the outflow.

The dam will break.
Check em

Disaster averted.

beautiful.

Yesterday they said it was a net 38k outflow - you don't think rain and runoff can double during the storms?

The majority of gets gotten yesterday pointed to the same conclusion.

Emergency spillway is 30 feet. But not just one 30 foot wall of water but it would release all water in the dam about 870 feet. Dam's max capacity is 900 feet before spill over occurs at the emergency spillway.

I heard 300,000 CFS, but the max rate is affected by the water level since the intake for the spillway is like 100 feet down from the top.

They're probably scared of damaging the spillway, and scared of flooding since levees are already breaking.

That's not the number I heard. Net outflow closer to 80k

we need a mascot like winter chan for the oroville dam or the storm

In articles I keep seeing 300k, but the original dam documents assert 600k, but who knows what that is based on, might just be literally what can fit on the spillway vs. feasible flow. I do think even if the dam itself is never threatened, having to maintain this level of flow (or higher!) during the rainstorms could cause serious flooding of the river below. If I was in a part of the area vulnerable to flooding I'd get my stuff and go elsewhere for sure.

Outflow was 100k on Sunday and inflow was 30-40k IIRC.

It will be much worse with the rain and snowmelt. And we are assuming they are still able to use the main spillway at 100k cfs

Someone suggested erosion-chan

naw they will do it, lower oroville is kinda shitty anyways and gov brown startimg sucking trumps dick for emergency relief already.

if they dont and the dam fails it will erase bigs and gridley from the map. they wouldnt recover. oroville is the county seat and half of it woulsnt be affected, they would rebuild no problem. the smaller towns like richvale etc would suffer. but that is already flooded rice paddies so theyd be okay.

rain-chan

100k out, 25k in most of yesterday
cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?ORO

This needs to be next OP's image

stormchan